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Trading Elite Players in their Prime -- Are we expecting too much?

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HKSR

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26 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I've always viewed 28 to 32 as prime years...

 

If it's 23-27 as you say, why are we wasting Demko, Hughes, and Petey's prime years???

 

No, I'm saying if we trade Miller, don't necessarily expect that it will have a significant positive impact on the team.  In general, based on a historical view, it doesn't usually turn out that way.  In fact, most, if not all of the teams that traded away their elite prime player got worse, and are still struggling (Ottawa, Montreal, Buffalo, etc).

Yeah the opinions obviously range on this but the NHL is getting younger and younger, 30's isn't really considered prime anymore. Players are better younger now and when you look at the best players in the league they are well under 28.

 

Your second question, sheesh that's loaded and you'd have to ask ownership and management that one. I would argue Goalies reach their prime later, that's been the case for a long time as they take longer to develop. And if Pettersson is playing like a player in their prime then we have even bigger issues, let's say hopefully he's still developing. 

 

You're right, we don't know the outcome if we trade him. We also don't' know the outcome and consequences if we keep him either. It's a crap shoot. I can tell you one thing, doing nothing and accepting the status quo isn't very good either. 

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2 hours ago, HKSR said:

So a bunch of you clearly want to trade Miller right now while he's just entering his prime. 

 

Out of curiosity, who else can you think of that was traded in their prime and was hugely beneficial for their team?

 

Ryan O'Reilly?  When he was traded from Colorado, he was 24 and yet to break out.  When he was traded from Buffalo, he landed Buffalo--  Sobotka, Berglund, Thompson and a 1st (Ryan Johnson) :wacko:

 

Martin St Louis?  Nope, he was traded at the age of 38 years old (I was actually a bit surprised when I read this too lol).

 

Mark Stone?  For Lindberg, Brannstrom and a 2nd (Egor Sokolov) ... still a bit early, but man, that doesn't look good.

 

Matt Duchene at 26yo?  For Turris, Hammond, Bowers, Round 1 (Byram), Round 3 (Stienburg) ... if Byram doesn't get his concussion issues under control, this doesn't look good.

Matt Duchene at 28yo?  For Davidsson, Abramov, Round 1 (Lassi Thomson) ... yikes...

 

Max Pacioretty?  Tatar, Suzuki, 2nd (Fagemo) ... this looked a lot better a little while ago, but it's not looking so great anymore. 

 

Can you think of a player traded in their prime where the return actually benefited the team that much? 

 

Might be good to temper our expectations of a JT Miller trade.  I think we may be setup for disappointment. 

 

Love this topic. Just off the top of my head Eric Lindros? That was a dozer but he wasn't in his prime.

 

Patrick Roy? Not beneficial I guess?

 

Bure?

 

Wayne Gretzky? 

 

Erik Karlsson.

 

Wendel Clark (similar to Miller)

 

It is hard to measure benefit now because you get cap space and assets hopefully. It's really a two step trade and hinges on what you do with cap space.

Edited by Chris12345
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2 hours ago, HKSR said:

Yeah I just get this feeling like people think trading Miller will completely transform this team moving forward.  By the looks of history, it doesn't appear that way.  I'm all ears though cuz I can't remember that many players being traded in their prime.

Nope, it is about putting our cap crunch to rest. 
If we gonna spend something on an expensive contract only a RHD is suitable. 
Millers place should be filled with cheap ELCs.

 

Then you should decide wich player of Miller and Petey you like and then move on from the other.

So if you want to keep Miller go the whole route and demand that Petey gets traded then.

Miller and Petey isn’t compatible. 

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24 minutes ago, Chris12345 said:

Love this topic. Just off the top of my head Eric Lindros? That was a dozer but he wasn't in his prime.

 

Patrick Roy? Not beneficial I guess?

 

Bure?

 

Wayne Gretzky? 

 

Erik Karlsson.

 

Wendel Clark (similar to Miller)

 

It is hard to measure benefit now because you get cap space and assets hopefully. It's really a two step trade and hinges on what you do with cap space.

Are you saying these were good trades or bad ones? Because the players you listed had pretty mixed results....

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Nothing any team will give us will be better than a top-line big strong center who can score at a point per game and play PP/PK, not now and not in the future. Teams are stingy, NYR is not going to give us a great defensive prospect + player + 1st round pick.

 

Basically we'll end up getting scraps for Miller, no team will part with their top young player or prospects and if we're getting a 1st, it's going to be a very late 1st rounder (might as well be a good 2nd round pick).

 

I really don't think we'll do well trading Miller just because of how stingy teams have been in the last few years, plus we've got a new GM who no one is going to take seriously and JR has a bit of a history of making brutal trades. Sit tight on Miller, try and re-sign him and convince him to stay otherwise we flip him next year for anything before he walks. Now is certainly not the time to trade him.

 

For everyone thinking we're getting Lafrenierre/Schneider and a 1st from NYR, you can forget it. The best we might get offered is Kakko and a 1st + some B-grade prospect.

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1 hour ago, HKSR said:

See above... VC posted it in another thread...

 

"Everyone jumps to the conclusion we have to trade Miller or Boeser, it does not have to be a top player."

 

As JR said in another statement, it is not what players want  to hear,(unless wanting out) But the conclusion is fairly obvious, pretty hard to get cap space on lower paid players, when you need to pay the replacement players- He is protecting the players in this statement, or maybe it is not Miller and Boeser to trade but other expensive contracts of players he never mentioned?

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Salary cap  And ufa status play huge parts in deals.

so hypothetically miller wants to test ufa market next year should we follow the failed model let him walk for free in hopes of a fringe wild card spot. 
same goes for motte this season 

then can we even afford to pay what they will want to stay. 
i don’t know the situations of the players and the team direction of the examples you listed at the time of the trades. 
millers value is super high he’s not a rental a team could recoup assets next season if needed. JR and every gm know we don’t need to trade him this season that might not be the case next season if he decides he wants to test the market. 
 

The team as a group isn’t good enough doesn’t have enough depth or even a good mix of different players with different strengths. So start dealing with fixing it now or continue with the no plan shyte at the wall garbage of the past 8 seasons and Watch assets  diminish 

 

 

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Just now, ba;;isticsports said:

As JR said in another statement, it is not what players want  to hear,(unless wanting out) But the conclusion is fairly obvious, pretty hard to get cap space on lower paid players, when you need to pay the replacement players- He is protecting the players in this statement, or maybe it is not Miller and Boeser to trade but other expensive contracts of players he never mentioned?

Maybe, maybe not.

 

Dickinson and Pearson out is $5.9M out.  It'd be a helluva lot easier to replace those 2 with ELCs than to try and replace Miller.  Especially when we're unlikely to suck enough to draft Top 5.

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14 minutes ago, 24K PureCool said:

Nothing gonna improve with the status quo. We are stuck in purgatory right now. Not good enough for the playoffs and not bad enough for high picks. 

 

The worst place to be. Trading Miller will force us one way or the other. 

I really don't get this mentality.  Petey and Boeser are not playing well at all.  Are we expecting that they will be this way forever?  Do we feel Podz and Hogs will not improve?  Heck, even Bo is underachieving this year.  We've seen a dramatic improvement with a coaching change, why not see what they can do?

 

I've reiterated in previous threads... this is the timeline...

2018-19:  Pettersson rookie year

2019-20:  Hughes rookie year

2020-21:  Pettersson injury after 26 games

2021-22:  Give up on this group???

 

How on Earth do we KNOW that this team is not good enough?  Arguably, they have barely had any seasons TOGETHER yet... (by together, I mean Petey, Hughes, Miller, Boeser, Bo, Demko). 

 

The only season they have had TOGETHER prior to this one is 2019-20.  They finished 4th in the division with a 36-27-6 record, eliminated the Wild in the play-in round, eliminated the Blues in the 1st round, and took Vegas to game 7 in the 2nd round.

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5 minutes ago, Pazura92 said:

happens when Peteys contract is up and he decides to walk

He can't, he would be an rfa.

So he can't just walk.

He could get offer sheeted, or traded, or sit out; but other than that he will be a Canuck.

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1 minute ago, gurn said:

He can't, he would be an rfa.

So he can't just walk.

He could get offer sheeted, or traded, or sit out; but other than that he will be a Canuck.

No, but Demko could in a few years... and Hughes could the year after that.

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You start this entire post with a statement that personally, and statically doesn't seem correct to me. JT Miller statically entered his prime in 2019, his numbers seem to show that pretty clearly in my opinion. Statically, research over the NHL as a whole also say that a forward hits their scoring prime around 27-28. Again, by that regards he isn't just entering it, he's right in the middle of it. He likely has a few years left of prime JT Miller. But his next contract is due next summer, where I think a realistic assumption he has anywhere between 1-3 years of prime left, and his well deserved contract may have him being over payed for a number of years after that.

 

And to address something you said a few posts up. Trading Miller isn't giving up on this group. If anything, trading Miller is showing faith in the core of Petey, Hughes, and Horvat. We are taking short term pain to invest in pieces to support that young core instead of possibly over extending on a player that simply doesn't line up with our time line. JT was traded for by Benning, the same guy who pushed all his chips in for this year with the OEL trade. The timeline has changed, and we need to make the best move to adjust to that.

 

If no one is offering a kings ransom this year for Miller I hope we keep him and see how things play out this year. But if the Canucks can set themselves up for the future with a team overpaying for a couple years of Miller, we have to seriously consider that.

Edited by Shayster007
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27 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I really don't get this mentality.  Petey and Boeser are not playing well at all.  Are we expecting that they will be this way forever?  Do we feel Podz and Hogs will not improve?  Heck, even Bo is underachieving this year.  We've seen a dramatic improvement with a coaching change, why not see what they can do?

 

I've reiterated in previous threads... this is the timeline...

2018-19:  Pettersson rookie year

2019-20:  Hughes rookie year

2020-21:  Pettersson injury after 26 games

2021-22:  Give up on this group???

 

How on Earth do we KNOW that this team is not good enough?  Arguably, they have barely had any seasons TOGETHER yet... (by together, I mean Petey, Hughes, Miller, Boeser, Bo, Demko). 

 

The only season they have had TOGETHER prior to this one is 2019-20.  They finished 4th in the division with a 36-27-6 record, eliminated the Wild in the play-in round, eliminated the Blues in the 1st round, and took Vegas to game 7 in the 2nd round.

Younhiglighted the problem. They were 4th on the division and was trending down. The team needs to he better even from that point and we are 100% capped out. That the crux of the issue, cap space.

 

We have no way of improving of we retained Miller and everyone else in this group. We need to step back and rebuild/retool around Demko, Hughes, and Petey and doing that will make Miller fall off the timeline where we can maximize his value playing for us. We need to kick that value down the road and trading him now will maximize our chances of retaining that we when we need it.

 

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17 minutes ago, HKSR said:

No, but Demko could in a few years... and Hughes could the year after that.

And a rock could hit the moon and send it out of orbit.

Or Hughes could and Demko could sign 7 year deals, or 5 year deals, or 4 year deals, or even a couple of 2 year deals.

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