Trading Elite Players in their Prime -- Are we expecting too much?

[Timråfan]

19 minutes ago, 13231 said:

And how did you arrive to that conclusion? Because your worries about his age are everywhere in your posts and on the posts you've liked. You're entitled to your opinion as well, I am simply addressing it with what is actually happening in NHL with players of Miller's age and skill set. And as for your last question, he has literally said he wants to stay in Vancouver, I can provide the link to that quote to you as well if you'd like. 

Compare it with Marky and Demko.

Marky was in his best season when Benning let him go.

Goalies hold the fort a lot of years also. Lundquist, Luongo etc… So why didn’t Benning sign him for six more years much cheaper than the 10mill goalies out there.

[TGT68]

At his age is Miller not currently peaked and looking at mostly downhill years?  

 

Dealing him for a couple players that show a good chance to be developing and are likely to be as valuable as Miller is now in three years seems to be a win/win to me.  

 

You need to give to get.  And Miller caps Horvats development on the ice and in the room.  

 

At the same time we 3 potential super pests (Motte garland and hogs) does one not need to go in exchange for more a power player type?  

 

We need to get harder to play against.  

[awalk]

I think any trade can go a few different ways... good for one team, bad for the other team; good for both teams; bad for both teams; mediocre for both teams. This isn't unusual and I would not say it's a reason TO trade or NOT TO  trade a player either way. 

 

We traded a fella named Alex Mogilny and got a nice young lad named Brendan Morrison back once upon a time ago. If the organization can identify good players/prospects, do WELL with the draft picks we get, and gain cap space, that's where the focus should be. 

[ShawnAntoski]

Outside of Demko, any player 26 or above should be on the market.  These next two, drafts will set up the Canucks, better than any trades would.

[IBatch]

Linden. 

[IBatch]

8 hours ago, HKSR said:

Based on history, where do you see that though?  Closest would be the Max trade.  Unless you equate Tatar to a good young D type player and you change the 2nd to a 1st, I'm doubtful right now that you get that much for Miller.

Tarter sauce for a first, second and third in consecutive drafts from Detroit to Vegas - with one year left on his deal ...and Miller is way better then he was, similar cap hit ...

Edited February 8, 2022 by IBatch

[IBatch]

On 2/7/2022 at 4:14 PM, 13231 said:

The majority of the top 20 scorers in the NHL right now, and 5/10 of the top 10, are 28 and older. The notion that there's a risk in keeping a player past 28/29 because they will fall off is very short sighted and ill informed. The fact that the trade Miller echo chamber is using his age as the determining factor for their opinion just strikes me as lazy and uneducated, tbh. Would you have traded Daniel & Henrik away in 2008? Luongo in 2007? Bertuzzi & Naslund in the early 00s? This obsession with age and draft picks is quiet baffling, especially when you have the examples of Edmonton, Buffalo, etc right in front of you. 

 

The way Miller plays the game, he has the capability to sustain his productivity to age 34-35. I would definitely want a player of his character and caliber on the team long term as we get better with Petey, Hughes, Demko and Brock emerging even stronger in their game. 

Yes and the Sedins peaked at 29/30 and then kept it up for awhile ... HHOFers likely kept it up for awhile.   Naslund 27-30ish ... Miller won't keep this up until he's 34/35.    I sure doubt it anyways.   Yes it happens - but it's not the norm either.   Most guys aren't even in the league for 15 years. 

 

Edit:  The point is, Miller isn't a 100 40-50ish goal player.    Is he?    Naslund actually has a case for the HHOF given his era - deepest part of the dead puck one.    3 consecutive first team all-star (meaning best in the league at his position - no other player in our history did that),  Pearson award, Hart finalist and almost an Art Ross... Miller?  17th in scoring is his best to date... maybe there is a better season coming but that doesn't seem likely.    

Edited February 9, 2022 by IBatch

[lmm]

12 hours ago, HKSR said:

So a bunch of you clearly want to trade Miller right now while he's just entering his prime. 

 

Out of curiosity, who else can you think of that was traded in their prime and was hugely beneficial for their team?

 

Ryan O'Reilly?  When he was traded from Colorado, he was 24 and yet to break out.  When he was traded from Buffalo, he landed Buffalo--  Sobotka, Berglund, Thompson and a 1st (Ryan Johnson)

 

Martin St Louis?  Nope, he was traded at the age of 38 years old (I was actually a bit surprised when I read this too lol).

 

Mark Stone?  For Lindberg, Brannstrom and a 2nd (Egor Sokolov) ... still a bit early, but man, that doesn't look good.

 

Matt Duchene at 26yo?  For Turris, Hammond, Bowers, Round 1 (Byram), Round 3 (Stienburg) ... if Byram doesn't get his concussion issues under control, this doesn't look good.

Matt Duchene at 28yo?  For Davidsson, Abramov, Round 1 (Lassi Thomson) ... yikes...

 

Max Pacioretty?  Tatar, Suzuki, 2nd (Fagemo) ... this looked a lot better a little while ago, but it's not looking so great anymore. 

 

Can you think of a player traded in their prime where the return actually benefited the team that much? 

 

Might be good to temper our expectations of a JT Miller trade.  I think we may be setup for disappointment. 

 

none of those players are elite

O'Reilly and Duchene had a lot of trouble finding their game before they even became the stars that they are now

StLouis was 38 , not prime

Stone , Ottawa was in melt down, not sure why he got traded when the Karlsson/Dude and their wives thing was going on, he prob just wanted out

Patches was similar I think, but not sure about him

Montreal and Ottawa seem to be perpetually in rebuild

[13231]

6 hours ago, IBatch said:

Yes and the Sedins peaked at 29/30 and then kept it up for awhile ... HHOFers likely kept it up for awhile.   Naslund 27-30ish ... Miller won't keep this up until he's 34/35.    I sure doubt it anyways.   Yes it happens - but it's not the norm either.   Most guys aren't even in the league for 15 years. 

Daniel Sedin won the Art Ross in his age 31 season. Henrik was PPG in his age 32 season. Both the Sedins were almost a PPG in their age 34-35 season. Naslund was a near PPG player until his age 34 season. And the trend of multitude of players playing even better into their mid 30s is happening in front of our eyes right now. Players can be very productive & useful beyond their perceived "peak". 

[13231]

9 hours ago, Harold Drunken said:

So the goalies and forwards have nothing to do with those stats hey? Are you insane lol You're using 5v5 stats when there's 3 forwards and a goalie on the ice too ....How about us having the third highest paid D in the league and fewest goals? Or a $7+ million dollar defenseman with 9 points in 43 games. I think our entire structure and system might have something to do with those stats eh? You think?

Lol this is just pure desperation and utter incompetence on your end to provide any basis for your poorly constructed opinions. "Our D is bad, but our defensive stats are good because of our forwards and goalie. But we have to trade some of our best forwards to get better". You do realize there are goalies and forwards present in every strength of the game right? And while you're at it, check out our stats at all strengths as well. Let's forget about actual professionally tabulated team stats for a second, you seem to be very enlightened about what makes a good defense in the NHL, can you provide me any one metric or stat to support anything you've said so far? Can any point you've made be supported by evidence, and not your feelings? I don't think so. And if OEL scoring 9 points in 43 games according to you is bad team defense, I have nothing left to say to you. 

[IBatch]

5 hours ago, 13231 said:

Daniel Sedin won the Art Ross in his age 31 season. Henrik was PPG in his age 32 season. Both the Sedins were almost a PPG in their age 34-35 season. Naslund was a near PPG player until his age 34 season. And the trend of multitude of players playing even better into their mid 30s is happening in front of our eyes right now. Players can be very productive & useful beyond their perceived "peak". 

That was exactly what i was saying - three of our best players all-time did it, but they were obviously special look at the hardware they won, best players in the entire league during that time.   Miller?  Not even close.   We've had dozens of players have a couple PPG seasons and like him 17-40ish  in league scoring for a period of years (like him)...how many of them kept it up until they were 34/35?.    Covid also scews things - we haven't seen a full season yet.   Can he keep it up?  Absolutely.   Will he?   My guess is he's a lot closer to a Stastny then a Naslund or Sedin (as in the one playing in WNP). 

 

Edit:  Just curious - what do you think is a fair cap hit for JT Miller in Vancouver (keep in mind - Vegas, Dallas, Kraken, Florida and TB have zero state taxes ... 36.4/53% in BC, highest in the league now - back in 2010 we were 7th highest taxed team in the league)  Patches would have to get paid 1.25 more here for the same money ... Stone double digits ... Duchene over 9...by the end of the year, Miller will have lost close to 2 million in wages just from his trade...hasn't bought a house...what do you think it would take to keep him?   More then QHs that's for sure ... my guess is over 8 and 7/8 years is what it would take to keep him.    He can go to one of those teams and have the same take home at around 6.8 as what 8 is here, our team would have to accept a decline to keep him and make him whole at least.    The only thing that might change that is a miraculous run this year or next...  Then maybe he'd want to see this thing out and leave money on the table he'd get somewhere else. 

Edited February 8, 2022 by IBatch

[IBatch]

7 hours ago, lmm said:

none of those players are elite

O'Reilly and Duchene had a lot of trouble finding their game before they even became the stars that they are now

StLouis was 38 , not prime

Stone , Ottawa was in melt down, not sure why he got traded when the Karlsson/Dude and their wives thing was going on, he prob just wanted out

Patches was similar I think, but not sure about him

Montreal and Ottawa seem to be perpetually in rebuild

Miller won't ever score as many goals as Patches has (not many players have scored as many as he has since entering the league) and he's good without the puck ... Miller  also isn't a two way force like O'Reilly and Stone - those three guys for sure match up with Miller, even better with Stone, who wasn't under the radar for a couple years before the trade (and think OTT sucked with some of those trades).. Only Patches was around the same age Miller will be next year...

 

Point is i think it's pretty fair to list those trades.   Of those players, where would you rank Miller compared to where they were at the time of the trade?    Stone for sure higher,  and  O'Reilly too given his age, nobody was shocked to see him do great on a better team.    Selke types both of them.   Patches i'd say equals Miller  IF we wait another year.   

 

Millers value is higher with retention and traded this season.    That i'm pretty certain of.    As for perpetual rebuild, OTTs debacle makes what JB left look like an awesome home cooked meal, compared to a plate of dogsh!t.  That said they at least recognized they needed to blow it up...two years after almost making the final, with their young core getting better too.   What a total tire fire that was...EK/Hoffman/Ceci/Cabgate etc..     They undersold on Stone and Zinbenajad especially (imagine taking a cap dump back and only getting a second! NYR came out with one of the most lopsided trades i've seen in awhile).... that said at least their GM/team drafts well and has for the last two decades - and kudos to making a plan and sticking to it.   Dorian is creating a good young fast team in OTT, with lots still coming up. 

 

Bergevin era is over.   MTL needs to start again.   Their two cornerstones are gone or almost done.   But will MTL fans have the patience...not likely. 

Edited February 8, 2022 by IBatch

[13231]

2 hours ago, IBatch said:

That was exactly what i was saying - three of our best players all-time did it, but they were obviously special look at the hardware they won, best players in the entire league during that time.   Miller?  Not even close.   We've had dozens of players have a couple PPG seasons and like him 17-40ish  in league scoring for a period of years (like him)...how many of them kept it up until they were 34/35?.    Covid also scews things - we haven't seen a full season yet.   Can he keep it up?  Absolutely.   Will he?   My guess is he's a lot closer to a Stastny then a Naslund or Sedin (as in the one playing in WNP). 

 

Edit:  Just curious - what do you think is a fair cap hit for JT Miller in Vancouver (keep in mind - Vegas, Dallas, Kraken, Florida and TB have zero state taxes ... 36.4/53% in BC, highest in the league now - back in 2010 we were 7th highest taxed team in the league)  Patches would have to get paid 1.25 more here for the same money ... Stone double digits ... Duchene over 9...by the end of the year, Miller will have lost close to 2 million in wages just from his trade...hasn't bought a house...what do you think it would take to keep him?   More then QHs that's for sure ... my guess is over 8 and 7/8 years is what it would take to keep him.    He can go to one of those teams and have the same take home at around 6.8 as what 8 is here, our team would have to accept a decline to keep him and make him whole at least.    The only thing that might change that is a miraculous run this year or next...  Then maybe he'd want to see this thing out and leave money on the table he'd get somewhere else. 

You bring forward some good points, these are all legitimate things to consider. Of course neither of us can say anything for certain, but I will put forth a few counter arguments to what you've stated.

 

It is indeed hard to gauge Miller's full potential because Covid messed things up right as he became a top scorer. But his numbers & consistency can be fairly evaluated (in both the regular season and the bubble run), amounting to him surely being a player better than Stastny, and below the marks of people like the Sedins who are former Art Ross winners. I believe Miller is a player who can be counted on to deliver .80-1.00 PPG (like many players into their mid 30s who a not future HOFs), and he is also someone we have success with on special teams, as well as being considered a leader in the locker room. These attributes, along with the way he plays the game, makes him a very valuable member to the team who will not be easy to replace either by draft or trading. Even if he is in the top 30 in scoring for the next 5 years and keeps up with his overall style of play, he is definitely worth keeping. Can he keep up? I also absolutely believe he can. Will he? The odds seem to be in his favor, especially if our other young players continue on an upward trajectory.

 

As for his cap hit, I think its a bit redundant to speculate. I don't think any of us expected Petey, Hughes or even Demko to sign at the cap hits they signed to. I don't think a single soul believed we would get rid of Loui, Roussel, and Beagle in a single trade. We are not privy to even 10% of what goes on behind the scenes, but I do believe if Miller wants to stay and if the team wants him around, they'll find a way to make it work. Both sides look to want to do that as of right now, and let's see how that plays out. I also don't think its likely Miller signs with Tampa, Vegas, Florida or any other team that plays in a state with lax tax laws. They'd have to move mountains to accompany Miller at even 6.8 million/year. I doubt he leaves Vancouver to join the mess in Seattle because of tax laws either. Dallas? Really can't say. 

 

I guess I come back to my original point that personally, I find the Miller trade rumors to be a distraction to a team that is playing very well and coming together amazingly after everything it has endured. I think worries about his age are overstated and not factually supported, and I also think our team takes a step back short & long term with a Miller trade. And historically, as the OP pointed out, trades of this nature hugely favor the teams getting the better player.  

 

 

[Harold Drunken]

6 hours ago, 13231 said:

Lol this is just pure desperation and utter incompetence on your end to provide any basis for your poorly constructed opinions. "Our D is bad, but our defensive stats are good because of our forwards and goalie. But we have to trade some of our best forwards to get better". You do realize there are goalies and forwards present in every strength of the game right? And while you're at it, check out our stats at all strengths as well. Let's forget about actual professionally tabulated team stats for a second, you seem to be very enlightened about what makes a good defense in the NHL, can you provide me any one metric or stat to support anything you've said so far? Can any point you've made be supported by evidence, and not your feelings? I don't think so. And if OEL scoring 9 points in 43 games according to you is bad team defense, I have nothing left to say to you. 

[Timråfan]

10 minutes ago, 13231 said:

I don't think a single soul believed we would get rid of Loui, Roussel, and Beagle in a single trade. 

 

I hope you realise that moving out our best pk-players without replacing them is what is making it so hard to reach playoffs. 

So put the blame on that moronic trade…

Benning did that because he was so stressed.

Had he waited one year they would have left anyway. Wich had let our scouts look for the appropriate replacement capwise.

[appleboy]

Not every trade works out. Miller could go to someone and then have a career ending injury.  

 

If the Canucks move one or two of our top players they will get cap space. 

[wai_lai416]

So other team whiffing on their draft picks = the trade was underwhelming?

 

Nick Suzuki alone is already a W for Montreal. 

 

None of those trade even featured any prospect the level of say a Schneider or lysell or whomever else they are linked with. The closest one Suzuki in terms of prospect. Other team busting on their draft have nothing to do with well this trade sucks.

[Harold Drunken]

13 hours ago, 13231 said:

Lol this is just pure desperation and utter incompetence on your end to provide any basis for your poorly constructed opinions. "Our D is bad, but our defensive stats are good because of our forwards and goalie. But we have to trade some of our best forwards to get better". You do realize there are goalies and forwards present in every strength of the game right? And while you're at it, check out our stats at all strengths as well. Let's forget about actual professionally tabulated team stats for a second, you seem to be very enlightened about what makes a good defense in the NHL, can you provide me any one metric or stat to support anything you've said so far? Can any point you've made be supported by evidence, and not your feelings? I don't think so. And if OEL scoring 9 points in 43 games according to you is bad team defense, I have nothing left to say to you. 

No no you're right, I concede you are just too sharp of a hockey mind for me. So you are saying:

 

5V5 stats directly reflect how good you're blue line is. It's a blue line stat only 

5v5 GAA stats have nothing to do with the forward group at all - they don't check or play any defense so you're totally correct

5v5 GAA stats have nothing to do with the play of your goaltender either, we all know GAA is not a stat used for them anyway

 

You're literally insane if you think we have a top 15 D core in this league....that's just a crazy take based on a stat that reflects the teams play AS A WHOLE. The only desperation i see is coming you're your insane illogical argument that we have a top 15 Din the league because of 5v5 GAA....

 

You are fascinating to conversate with...you really are.  Let's look at the definition of 5v5 "Where both teams have 5 skaters and a goalie on the ice" The fact you're arguing this is mind boggling. Saying we rank top 15 in this category therefore we have the 15th best blue line in the league so, so obviously flawed and illogical. Get real.

Edited February 8, 2022 by Harold Drunken

[Harold Drunken]

13 hours ago, 13231 said:

Lol this is just pure desperation and utter incompetence on your end to provide any basis for your poorly constructed opinions. "Our D is bad, but our defensive stats are good because of our forwards and goalie. But we have to trade some of our best forwards to get better". You do realize there are goalies and forwards present in every strength of the game right? And while you're at it, check out our stats at all strengths as well. Let's forget about actual professionally tabulated team stats for a second, you seem to be very enlightened about what makes a good defense in the NHL, can you provide me any one metric or stat to support anything you've said so far? Can any point you've made be supported by evidence, and not your feelings? I don't think so. And if OEL scoring 9 points in 43 games according to you is bad team defense, I have nothing left to say to you. 

[13231]

10 hours ago, Harold Drunken said:

No no you're right, I concede you are just too sharp of a hockey mind for me. So you are saying:

 

5V5 stats directly reflect how good you're blue line is. It's a blue line stat only 

5v5 GAA stats have nothing to do with the forward group at all - they don't check or play any defense so you're totally correct

5v5 GAA stats have nothing to do with the play of your goaltender either, we all know GAA is not a stat used for them anyway

 

You're literally insane if you think we have a top 15 D core in this league....that's just a crazy take based on a stat that reflects the teams play AS A WHOLE. The only desperation i see is coming you're your insane illogical argument that we have a top 15 Din the league because of 5v5 GAA....

 

You are fascinating to conversate with...you really are.  Let's look at the definition of 5v5 "Where both teams have 5 skaters and a goalie on the ice" The fact you're arguing this is mind boggling. Saying we rank top 15 in this category therefore we have the 15th best blue line in the league so, so obviously flawed and illogical. Get real.

Dude you are completely unhinged. I gave you links to check out our stats at ALL strengths within different metrics and you are still ranting about 5v5. You have still not provided a single shred of evidence to support anything you have said. You keep throwing around words like flawed, illogical, insane, etc while basing everything you've said on your own brutal and uneducated subjective opinion. You are the embodiment of the very words you are using because nothing you have said about anything can be quantified. Even if you ignore factual stats, there are still so many holes in your arguments and logic that it would take me another couple of paragraphs to explain those to you and your feeble mind. Take my advice and reflect on the description you've posted under your photo, the most ironic thing I've seen in a while.