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Miller's next contract (Discussion)


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So, while I was collecting information for my argument on HF Board, I stumble onto some very convincing info. I pose this to CDC, and will follow it up with an opinion, and questions.

 

The basics of my comments are based on a comparison between  JT Miller and Mika Zibanejad, so here we go! (Over the last 3 years)

 

Mika Zibanejad.........168 GP        181 pts         1.08 G/GP          EVP 106        PPP 63         SHP 12          GWG 14        SH% 16.0        TOI 20:34        FO% 49.2      DOB Apr 18, 1993

 

JT Miller....................176 GP        179 pts         1.02 G/GP           EVP 106       PPP 69          SHP 4           GWG 12        SH% 15.6         TOI 20:36       FF% 55.3      DOB Mar 14, 1993

 

These guys are identical in their stats, except in FO%, which favors Miller, and plus minus where Zib +29, is greater to Miller's +11, although, it would be an easy argument, that Millers quality of line-mate is greater than Millers, and on a better overall team. In summary of stats, they for all intents and purposes, are close enough to be the be considered of equal quality.

 

Now this is where the interesting part is...................

  

Mika Zibanejad...........................$5,350,000         $8,500,000         $8,500,000        $8,500,000        $8,500,000        $8,500,000       $8,500,000       $8,500,000       $8,500,000

 

JT MIller..................................... $5,250,000         $5,250,000         UFA

 

So, as you can see age, ability, and stats the last year of existing contract are almost identical.....within $100,000, so given that JT Millers new contract will be signed 1 year later than Mika Zibanejad's, it is certainly reasonable to think JT Miller will get a comparable contract, if not, a shade more. I suggest 7 years at $8,600,000 per will be where he settles, which will take him to exactly the same retirement year as Zibanejad.

 

Now, other teams have stars that are paid more, so I am not sure we can say, we can not afford it, but under our existing cap commitments, and with Horvat, Boeser, and Pettersson in 2 more years, do we want to commit that much to one player? Is his value in his play or in his return? (Depending on the return).

 

This is the dilemma JR faces this TDL. Please feel free to comment.

 

 

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IMO he is playing better than Zibnejad, especially given the fact that Miller has been able to do the things he has without much support. Everyone else has had down years besides him offensively on the team. Zibs plays on a better team overall with players having good years around him. Miller also plays much more physically and is more of a driver.

 

8.5 is likely the floor and I'd put 9.5 as the ceiling. 

Edited by Junkyard Dog
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1 hour ago, runtzguy said:

If this management group extends Miller then this management group mind as well re-sign the Sedins and Trevor Linden to forever contracts because we here in Canucks land is about nostalgia and good feelings. Not winning.

Not re-signing players in their prime is another way of not winning.  What do you want from management?  Either they trade away our best (or 2nd best behind Demko) player and we immediately suffer, or we play out his contract and risk losing him as a UFA.

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If he hits UFA he gets more, Zibanejad never actually hit UFA. Zibanejad's current contract expires this season, his extension was announced October 10th 2021. 

 

Because he never hit UFA he never actually took offers from anyone else, and several teams didn't have a chance to bid for him, if Miller walks to UFA he'll be one of the most in demand players in the pool and he'll have multiple teams after him, whether those teams have to shed cap space for him or not. 

 

The last two top level forwards to walk to UFA were Duchene and Panarin in 2019. Duchene got 8x7 from Nashville while Panarin got 11.6x7 from New York, Miller probably falls somewhere in the middle as UFA, he's definitely a superior player to Duchene and he should def get more than Zibanejad if he actually explores his options. I figure Miller costs 9M+ on a 7-8 year deal.

 

I also don't see any scenario happening, regardless of where he signs, where he takes anything less than the most term he can get, it doesn't make sense for him not to grab his biggest chance to cash in to it's greatest extent. He gives up 10M+ by taking a 4-5 year deal, giving up that kind of money is absurd, none of you would do it so why do folks expect he will? Think he's gonna still command huge dollars at 34-36 as a UFA? I doubt it, probably not what he'd probably give up by taking less than max term on this next deal. Dude's gonna cost any team a fortune to reel in. 

 

And let's be real, the Canucks likely don't get the discount some of you are hoping for. We're his third team, he hasn't even been here three full seasons, and he doesn't have roots in Vancouver. He doesn't owe us &^@# all. He loves his teammates and enjoys the city? Great, think he also didn't love his teammates or living in Tampa or New &^@#ing York? As an American? Come on. 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/2019/ufa/

Edited by Coconuts
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miller will probably be looking at closer to 9 after factoring in the increase in salary cap. Miller is the better point producer. Zib is the better defensive player and it's not even close. out of EP Horvat Miller and Boeser.. Miller probably ranks last out of the 4 in terms of his defensive game.. Miller besides taking faceoff is terrible back checker and really lazy/sloppy in his own zone. but when you are producing like miller teams will pay. 

 

i honestly think canucks would have to outbid the market just to keep miller coz they are not exactly close to being a contender.. i honestly don't care what people say our record is since Boudreau took over.. the way we start games 75% of the times.. how sloppy our defense is.. how fast team seem to skate circles around us.. our record is not sustainable.. and it literally require a vezina performance from demko almost every night to have a chance as he mask a lot of our problem..

 

for miller to consider signing with us as a non playoff team again.. he probably would ask for 9.5mil on a 7 year contract.. or 9mil on an 8 year contract.. assuming we miss the playoffs again this year which is more likely than making the playoffs.. he would have missed the playoffs 2 of the 3 years here.. and would have been 3 of 3 if covid didn't cancel the rest of the regular season.. hard to sell to a player this team is a contender and sign for market or below... 

 

Miller for me is more of a me first type of guy.. nothing he's done or said gives you the impression he won't max out on his next contract and would give vancouver a discount and sign on a shorter term 5-6 years like some people here are fantasizing.

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Miller is awesome offensively, But i take that kings ransom deal. Unless we find a way for boston to take OEL off our hands, We can't have multiple 30+ year olds on huge dollar and term deals when we are a fringe playoff team at best right now. 

I would trade boeser also, Hes a slower one way player. Not to mention i really don't trust his shoulders lasting long. He is always shrugging his right shoulder like he's in pain or something. If his only talent is scoring, We should get as much value of out him while we still can.

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JT Miller is a real hard thing to figure out, you can trade him and get hopefully a really solid return that could set the team up for decades (think the Linden trade) but that could screw up team chemistry and have a detrimental effect.  Or you can take the risk and resign him to a new contract if he wants to sign with us that is probably going to be long and expensive and then hope that he can Continue to play well into his Mid 30's like someone Bergeron.  Either options are a risk, glad I'm not the one that has to make the decision.

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The cap will eventually go up, so we should sign Miller (if we keep him) for the full 8 year term to keep the cap as low as possible.  I think we can get him for 60 million. 

If he refuses, then we trade him this  summer for the best offer.  

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1 minute ago, Alflives said:

The cap will eventually go up, so we should sign Miller (if we keep him) for the full 8 year term to keep the cap as low as possible.  I think we can get him for 60 million. 

If he refuses, then we trade him this  summer for the best offer.  

8 years really is the only advantage we have over other teams. What do we get out of a 36/37 year old Miller? "intangibles" :lol:

 

But we're really concerned with the 1st half of that deal anyway. If Rutherford thinks he's the glue guy for the top 6 that helps us be a contender in a year, then maybe you do something very long term. 

 

60 mil over 8 years, front loaded, lots of bonuses, full NMC is what it would look like. We might have to eat the end of it like Minni did with Parise, but right now we have Demko and Hughes so if not now, when?

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I have no problem with 8.5   9.5 for miller.

What I hate is the term for these guys. 

As we have seen with Jim Bennings tenure here, 8 years can go by pretty quick.

I guarantee you in 5 yrs everybody bithching about his contract and him getting the LE treatment. 

Ide be discussing his next contract with his camp right and if he wants a big contract that takes him till he's 37 then trade him. 

If we trade him I want player/s that can help now! 

I remember players like Gary Smith , Bob Daily, Ken Lockett.    It been a long haul.  

Getting kind of tired of the kind of thing I saw here the first 25 games and the yoyo play I see at times now. 

It's time people for Vancouver to bring hone a cup. 

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2 minutes ago, erkayloomeh said:

I have no problem with 8.5   9.5 for miller.

What I hate is the term for these guys. 

As we have seen with Jim Bennings tenure here, 8 years can go by pretty quick.

I guarantee you in 5 yrs everybody bithching about his contract and him getting the LE treatment. 

Ide be discussing his next contract with his camp right and if he wants a big contract that takes him till he's 37 then trade him. 

If we trade him I want player/s that can help now! 

I remember players like Gary Smith , Bob Daily, Ken Lockett.    It been a long haul.  

Getting kind of tired of the kind of thing I saw here the first 25 games and the yoyo play I see at times now. 

It's time people for Vancouver to bring hone a cup. 

if its structured to be as buyout friendly as possible, that would help with the last 3 years of it, but yes an 8 year deal has some ugly implications in the back 1/2.

 

We also have to look at who replaces Miller. Who's available as a UFA thats better? we can't be a contender with the 4 years of Demko we have guaranteed via drafting only.

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4 minutes ago, JM_ said:

8 years really is the only advantage we have over other teams. What do we get out of a 36/37 year old Miller? "intangibles" :lol:

 

But we're really concerned with the 1st half of that deal anyway. If Rutherford thinks he's the glue guy for the top 6 that helps us be a contender in a year, then maybe you do something very long term. 

 

60 mil over 8 years, front loaded, lots of bonuses, full NMC is what it would look like. We might have to eat the end of it like Minni did with Parise, but right now we have Demko and Hughes so if not now, when?

Yeah, no. Especially not with a minimum of 2.4M in dead cap on the books, which jumps up to 3.9M if we can't move Halak. 

 

Rutherford is on record thinking we're at least two years out from contending, it ain't happening in a year. 

 

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/canucks-hockey/jim-rutherford-foresees-a-two-year-retool-for-the-canucks-5030162

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1 minute ago, Coconuts said:

Yeah, no. Especially not with a minimum of 2.4M in dead cap on the books, which jumps up to 3.9M if we can't move Halak. 

 

Rutherford is on record thinking we're at least two years out from contending, it ain't happening in a year. 

 

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/canucks-hockey/jim-rutherford-foresees-a-two-year-retool-for-the-canucks-5030162

Miller's extension wouldn't be effected by that tho. 

 

I don't see anything in that article that presumes Miller is the guy to go. Maybe its Garland and Myers. We just don't know. 

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Just now, JM_ said:

Miller's extension wouldn't be effected by that tho. 

 

I don't see anything in that article that presumes Miller is the guy to go. Maybe its Garland and Myers. We just don't know. 

But our ability to legitimately contend would be, we're a cap strapped team as it is. How many contenders have nearly 4M in dead cap? Ain't happening as soon as next season. 

 

And that wasn't my point. Rutherford's on record as to thinking our turnaround will require at least a couple years, potentially longer. We'd need a lot of luck. I don't see contending next season as remotely feasible, Boudreau or not. 

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1 minute ago, JM_ said:

if its structured to be as buyout friendly as possible, that would help with the last 3 years of it, but yes an 8 year deal has some ugly implications in the back 1/2.

 

We also have to look at who replaces Miller. Who's available as a UFA thats better? we can't be a contender with the 4 years of Demko we have guaranteed via drafting only.

That's true.  And the Miller type is important to winning a cup. If future buyout is the cost of currently retaining Miller then so be it .

We just need to figure out fixing the other issues with this team so we can win here in the next couple years. 

 

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