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JamesB

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It's no suprise our PK is better when Petey and Quinn are out there.  Petey I think should be on the number one PK forward pair.  Hughes needs to rest.  He already plays 26+ minutes.  But Boudreau wants to win and having Quinn on the PK helps with that.  

Petey and Quinn (and Demko) are our best PK players.  And it aint even close.

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Nice analysis. I'm not a big analytics guy but can you tell me how they gather high scoring chances, I mean what is considered a HDCA? My skepticism is upheld in that Motte looks like an awesome PK guy when watching him. Also Miller is similarly poor. Is there a stat that measures if a player's ineptitude lead to a goal? Myers would be miles and necks ahead in that category. ^_^

 

For me I like GA/60. Bottom line it says what happened. If you look at that stat our forwards are mostly decent but both D with the most time played give up a lot of goals. If I'm JR that right side D we (hopefully) acquire needs to be a top notch PKer. Also note how good Hughes is, 4.62 GA/60 crushing everyone with medium minutes played. Just need to dump Myers and upgrade with a more mobile and smart defender.

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15 minutes ago, 6of1_halfdozenofother said:

Good, well-thought-out post, OP.

 

I'm not so sure it's a lack of imagination as opposed to trying to manage his minutes and thinking to use him to drive offense (instead of defence).  However, I will agree that not deploying EP on the PK is a failure, considering he showed his defensive acumen in his rookie year, converting many of the opposing team's scoring chances into Canucks chances, just by knowing where the play was going, and intercepting at the right moment(s).

 

I'm still on the "deploy Höglander/Garland on the PK" train, for very much the same reason.

Yeah I think Garland would be exceptional on the PK.  I'm not sure about Hogs yet... he seems to get a little lost out there sometimes.  Eventually he'll be effective though.  His motor is like Garland's.

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13 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

Nice analysis. I'm not a big analytics guy but can you tell me how they gather high scoring chances, I mean what is considered a HDCA? My skepticism is upheld in that Motte looks like an awesome PK guy when watching him. Also Miller is similarly poor. Is there a stat that measures if a player's ineptitude lead to a goal? Myers would be miles and necks ahead in that category. ^_^

 

For me I like GA/60. Bottom line it says what happened. If you look at that stat our forwards are mostly decent but both D with the most time played give up a lot of goals. If I'm JR that right side D we (hopefully) acquire needs to be a top notch PKer. Also note how good Hughes is, 4.62 GA/60 crushing everyone with medium minutes played. Just need to dump Myers and upgrade with a more mobile and smart defender.

High danger scoring chances are assessed by Natural Stat Trick are based on shot attempts, distance from the net, the angle of the shot and whether it is blocked and is based on data about the frequency of scoring from that angle and distance. See Analytics with Alison: Digging into High-Danger Chances (nhl.com)

 

Still, I agree that GA/60 has a strong claim. If we had a large enough sample size I would always go with GA/60. And I also agree that Motte looks better on the PK than the xGA/60 and HDCA/60 suggest. Those numbers may be missing something. 

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4 minutes ago, JamesB said:

High danger scoring chances are assessed by Natural Stat Trick are based on shot attempts, distance from the net, the angle of the shot and whether it is blocked and is based on data about the frequency of scoring from that angle and distance. See Analytics with Alison: Digging into High-Danger Chances (nhl.com)

 

Still, I agree that GA/60 has a strong claim. If we had a large enough sample size I would always go with GA/60. And I also agree that Motte looks better on the PK than the xGA/60 and HDCA/60 suggest. Those numbers may be missing something. 

Maybe Motte really is just average on the PK and that's why he's only worth a fourth?  The guy tried hard, but clearly the numbers (and the return in trade) say otherwise. 

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9 minutes ago, JamesB said:

High danger scoring chances are assessed by Natural Stat Trick are based on shot attempts, distance from the net, the angle of the shot and whether it is blocked and is based on data about the frequency of scoring from that angle and distance. See Analytics with Alison: Digging into High-Danger Chances (nhl.com)

 

Still, I agree that GA/60 has a strong claim. If we had a large enough sample size I would always go with GA/60. And I also agree that Motte looks better on the PK than the xGA/60 and HDCA/60 suggest. Those numbers may be missing something. 

I like that you acknowledge the low sample size here. It's definitely a factor. I would think in Motte's case he may be letting players in to high danger areas but does it in a way that limits the chance of scoring, but it gets counted as high danger anyways. That's my main concern with analytics is that the info gathered doesn't always match with resulting assertions.

 

Thanks for the article. I think it would be far more useful if someone [with a more defined set of parameters] judged each opportunity with a 1 - 10 rating and made conclusions based off of that. Good thread man!

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2 hours ago, Alflives said:

It's no suprise our PK is better when Petey and Quinn are out there.  Petey I think should be on the number one PK forward pair.  Hughes needs to rest.  He already plays 26+ minutes.  But Boudreau wants to win and having Quinn on the PK helps with that.  

Petey and Quinn (and Demko) are our best PK players.  And it aint even close.

Poolguys numbers look pretty good too. As long as he's not allowed to carry the puck up ice or make any kind of offensive plays, he seems like a solid defensive defenseman. 
Dermott's defensive game looks good too. We might be shaping up to be a better defensive team moving forward. 

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1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Maybe Motte really is just average on the PK and that's why he's only worth a fourth?  The guy tried hard, but clearly the numbers (and the return in trade) say otherwise. 

Funny how eye test can be so deceptive. We see Motte skating so fast, i think it becomes a lot easier to assume he's contributing more, but reality is those are bad pk numbers b/c pk is all about intelligence and anticipation, not really about how fast/hard you can skate. 

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15 minutes ago, eeeeergh said:

Funny how eye test can be so deceptive. We see Motte skating so fast, i think it becomes a lot easier to assume he's contributing more, but reality is those are bad pk numbers b/c pk is all about intelligence and anticipation, not really about how fast/hard you can skate. 

Skating speed is important and a good team needs some team speed (a few guys who are fast) but it does get over-rated. Motte is fast and that was helpful. He has been replaced by Richardson who is relatively slow, but it probably will not hurt the team much.

 

I can think of a lot of fast guys on the Canucks who have been disappointing. Virtanen is an obvious example. And I remember when Andrey Pedan was the fastest guy on the team. And of course the best players in team history (the Sedins) were relatively slow.

 

 

Other things equal, more speed is always good. But other things usually aren't equal. 

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Nice analysis, I think these stats are tricky on the PK because there's so many factors that go into things, but you can't argue with them. I think a big reason why Petey is so good on the PK is not the fact that he's doing all the usual PK things like blocking shots, but he's very aggressive on the point and really presses the powerplay, and has a great, smart stick. In his rookie year I was really impressed with his defensive play which slipped a lot under Green, but seems to be coming back under Boudreau. That Avalanche game was his best defensive performance yet and we saw how his high offensive hockey IQ lead to him intercepting lots of offensive passes, which is why I think he's great on the PK. More than that, you notice when he presses so much, other teams have to respect it. Look at how many PK breakaways he's had. 

 

Appropriate pressure on the PK is the best way to disrupt a good powerplay. I think Petey definitely sticks to the point man a lot tighter than most PK forwards who collapse down and sure, this can be dangerous because it leaves the sideboard forwards open to lateral passes, but if you've got a PP run primarily by a QB defenceman (eg. Makar) then we're going to have a lot of success against them. I'm sure this is the sort of thing the coaches look into (or I hope they do) and if Petey is out there, maybe the 2nd forward and one of the defencemen just cover the middle of the slot better.

 

It's all about smart pressure - pressure one guy too much and it leaves you vulnerable to a 4-on-3, but so many teams nowadays use their point man to run the PP and having Petey right up against them looking to pounce on a breakaway really pressures and disrupts a lot of that. 


As for Hughes, I think his quick stick does an incredible job when the puck is below the line to scoop and clear it. He's not the biggest guy and he'll lose a lot of puck battles in close or around the net even, but he whips it out of the zone so much quicker than other guys like Myers or OEL who sometimes get it caught in their feet and just tie it up.

 

Interesting that Motte's numbers were so bad but to be honest these stats are hard to judge. The other key thing is that I think they're over the course of the season - remember our PK really stunk with Green and Petey and Hughes have only been on the PK since the coaching change so realistically it's more an indication of our PK ability before and after Green rather than the individual players. Ideally we'd have a split for guys like Motte and our defencemen before and after Green.

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33 minutes ago, JamesB said:

Skating speed is important and a good team needs some team speed (a few guys who are fast) but it does get over-rated. Motte is fast and that was helpful. He has been replaced by Richardson who is relatively slow, but it probably will not hurt the team much.

 

I can think of a lot of fast guys on the Canucks who have been disappointing. Virtanen is an obvious example. And I remember when Andrey Pedan was the fastest guy on the team. And of course the best players in team history (the Sedins) were relatively slow.

 

 

Other things equal, more speed is always good. But other things usually aren't equal. 

One also needs really good endurance to constantly close gaps and chase pucks from one side to another. Same for defenceman boxing out players for two minutes straight. It's not like you can just change it up when you get tired.

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34 minutes ago, JamesB said:

Skating speed is important and a good team needs some team speed (a few guys who are fast) but it does get over-rated. Motte is fast and that was helpful. He has been replaced by Richardson who is relatively slow, but it probably will not hurt the team much.

 

I can think of a lot of fast guys on the Canucks who have been disappointing. Virtanen is an obvious example. And I remember when Andrey Pedan was the fastest guy on the team. And of course the best players in team history (the Sedins) were relatively slow.

 

 

Other things equal, more speed is always good. But other things usually aren't equal. 

Jake was a super fast skater.  As fast, in a straight line, as anyone.  But he proved that being a compete moron and dumb as a rock meant being fast didn't matter.  Big, strong, fast, but completely stupid was Jake.  Those guys end up either in prison or flipping burgers.  Total and complete loser.  He should have been great on the PK, but that take brains.  Petey, who is lacks Jake's wheels, is a million times better on the PK because he's smarter than a carrot.

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The 25 games under Green buried the PK and the stats for players.  At 67% under Green 25 games into the year it became impossible for the team to turn the statistics around after Green was canned. Even a great PK the rest of the way would have still leave the team in the bottom 5 of the league - they were that far off.

 

So if you want a useful analysis you have to do two pictures.  One for the first 25 games and one for the rest.  Otherwise it doesn't mean much.

 

 

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Excellent thread. Love the analytics but the feeler/eye test doesn’t lie either. I have a sense that we can kill penalties these days where as before it felt like a guaranteed goal. Absolutely love seeing Petey and Hughes kill penalties. We are also a threat to score the odd shorty as an added bonus. 

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I didn't look at xGA, but I noticed that Dermott had an interestingly low GA/60 on the PK in Toronto, though his play leaves quite a small sample size.

 

Also, for any interested, our PK hasn't been very good under Boudreau either, but it definitely has been better at 77.7%. For reference, that would be 21st in the NHL.

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6 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

then

Sorry DownUnda... wasn't quoting you :)

 

4 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I think Podkolzin would be great on the PK.  I'd use Lammikko/Highmore as the 1st pair and Petey/Podkolzin as the second pair.

 

On defense, I'd go with Hughes/Schenn and then OEL/Poolman.

Podz will be a pk'er once he is fully integrated on the team... zero doubt about that. 

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Great analysis James. As always. 
 

think you may be a little hard on a few players.
Mottes and Myers pk numbers looks none too good, but I think its fair to say that part of this, is down to them always being on the ice first during pk, thus always being out against the oppositions best players, where as OEL being on the second unit, would be against lesser opposition. 
 

Secondly its great to see EP doing so well, but my only fear is Petey getting and injury while PK'ing. 
 

The PK under Bruce is lightyears better than under Green. 
 

Do think that Green not using Petey or QH on the pk was due to him trying to manage their ice time. 

 

Regardless, the change of peesonal behind the bench has done wonders for the players and for the younger ones especially. 

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