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[Proposal] Severson, and addition of size and grit


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Researching more on Severson, and I believe he should be the main target for the Canucks.  Great advanced stats defensively, offensively capable, and good size.  Won't come cheap at all.  So here goes...

 

TRADE #1

 

To NJD:

Conor Garland

Nils Hoglander

Tucker Poolman ($600k retained)

 

To VAN:

Damon Severson
 

From what I've read, the Devils want immediate help up front, but also help for the future.  Garland provides that now, and Hoglander for the future.  Poolman at only $1.9M AAV is good depth on the RHD for their up and coming LHD prospects.

Losing Garland hurts for sure, but VAN gets a very good long term pairing for Hughes.

 

TRADE #2

 

To CLB/DAL:

Tyler Myers

 

To VAN:

3rd Round Pick

 

CLB lost Jones, DAL will lose Klingberg.  Myers fills in nicely on either CLB or DAL. 

 

Now to the projections and other moves...

 

Assuming the cap goes up by $1M per year for the next 3 years, then a very conservative $2M per year after that (after escrow taken care of in 2024-25)...

 

RE-SIGNINGS

$9.2M x 6 for Miller

$7.25M x 8 for Horvat (Canuck for life!)

$6.2M x 8 for Boeser

$6.25M x 8 for Severson extension in a couple years

$9.5M x 8 for Petey extension

 

UFA SIGNINGS

Sign Lyubushkin at $2.75M x 5 -- defensive defenceman for OEL to finally play offensively

Sign Mikheyev or other Top 6 (Nichuskin?) for $4M-ish x 5

Sign Paul for $2.25M and Deslauriers for $1.75M (3 years each)

Keeping the UFA signings to 5 years, so when Petey and Hughes hit their prime, there's flexibility on what we wanna do then.

 

ADDITIONAL CAP DUMP

Dickinson traded with $750k retention.  Again, at $1.9M AAV, he will be moveable.

 

Miller-Petey-Boeser (Lotto line reunited!)

Mikheyev-Bo-Podkolzin

Pearson-Paul-Deslauriers (GRIT)

Highmore-Lamikko-Lockwood

Chiasson

 

Hughes-Severson

OEL-Lyubushkin

Dermott-Schenn

Burroughs

 

cap2029-30severson.jpg.12259c4b228d50aff0051c4d380534fe.jpg

 

This is all assuming we have no prospects ever entering the roster lol.  At some point, we'll have ELCs and young guys moving up.

Thinking Karlsson, Klimovich, Rathbone, Woo, and others will come along.  They will help fill in the bottom 6 and bottom defence pair (or 7th D).  For example, I feel that Woo could eventually replace Lyubushkin.

 

These deals allow the Canucks to be super competitive from now until the end of Petey and Hughes' peak years.

When Petey and Hughes hit their absolute peak (29 and 28 years old in 2027-28), there is a TON of cap space to work with ($11.5M to $26M).  Could make a major push then.

 

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5 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Are we doing a sign and trade with Severson or are we going to potentially let him walk for free in the summer of 2023?

Nope, you can see he's extended in my scenario.

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4 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Nope, you can see he's extended in my scenario.

Gotcha.

 

Severson has similar numbers to Seth Jones and is better defensively.  Why would he take a deal that is over $3 million less when he can become a UFA and have multiple teams bid on his services to drive up the price?

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12 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Gotcha.

 

Severson has similar numbers to Seth Jones and is better defensively.  Why would he take a deal that is over $3 million less when he can become a UFA and have multiple teams bid on his services to drive up the price?

I don't think he's quite at Jones' level.  Seth Jones' best year was 16 goals, 57 points in 78 games.  Extrapolated to 82 games is basically a 60 point campaign.  That's not far off from what Hughes did this year, but Jones has way more goals, is a RHD, and plays with a nasty edge with size to back it up.  He's consistently a 40 to 50pt defenceman, and sometimes a bit more.

 

Severson's best season is this current season with 11 goals and 46 points in 80 games.  He has never cracked 40 points until this season.

 

I used guys like Slavin, Morrissey, and Parayko as comparables.

 

Edited by HKSR
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Fitzgerald made it sound like he's going to try and extend Severson.  Didn't want to trade him at the TDL saying RHD's don't grow on trees and he's helping them win games.  Severson wants to stay there per Friedman.  NJD wants to take the next step next season and it feels really unlikely that they would weaken their D-corps.

 

Even if available, don't see NJD taking back Poolman.  They use Sportlogiq for their tracking data and they rely a lot on analytics.  Sportsnet using that technology concluded that Poolman was probably one, if not the worse off-season signing - they highlighted how he was in the bottom-tier in D-zone turnover rates.

 

Would be surprised if NJD is still interested in Garland.  They seem to need goal scorers and he doesn't seem to have that good of a shot.  It's now a season later and there could be more impactful players available.

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22 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I don't think he's quite at Jones' level.  Seth Jones' best year was 16 goals, 57 points in 78 games.  Extrapolated to 82 games is basically a 60 point campaign.  That's not far off from what Hughes did this year, but Jones has way more goals, is a RHD, and plays with a nasty edge with size to back it up.  He's consistently a 40 to 50pt defenceman, and sometimes a bit more.

 

Severson's best season is this current season with 11 goals and 46 points in 80 games.  He has never cracked 40 points until this season.

 

I used guys like Slavin, Morrissey, and Parayko as comparables.

 

Severson has better numbers than Morrissey and Slavin and is also a RHD.  He also has better numbers than Parayko.  Jones is terrible in his own zone.  No way Jones is worth over $3 million more than Severson, especially if Severson chooses to go the UFA route.  He will have multiple team bidding for his services.

 

If Severson has another stellar year in 2022-2023 I wouldn't be surprised if he gets offers in the 8x7 range.

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16 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Severson has better numbers than Morrissey and Slavin and is also a RHD.  He also has better numbers than Parayko.  Jones is terrible in his own zone.  No way Jones is worth over $3 million more than Severson, especially if Severson chooses to go the UFA route.  He will have multiple team bidding for his services.

 

If Severson has another stellar year in 2022-2023 I wouldn't be surprised if he gets offers in the 8x7 range.

Umm... I'll respectfully disagree.  Here are the stats for 3 of them.  Who's who?

 

Without me telling you who's who, or looking it up, tell me these all don't look really similar.  Especially the first 2:

 

Slavin.jpg.ff3cf6d891ff66663160203a790d463a.jpg

 

Severson.jpg.05cda67cd0f6e967666f5612deda2dec.jpg

 

Parayko.jpg.9c9e500d24ca27034fcf71c6b5efcc7b.jpg

 

Morrissey.jpeg.cf5e60766607e8dc3088819df45f4fd3.jpeg

 

Then there's this... Seth Jones...

 

Jones.jpg.e7ba645809feabdd173a803869039d6d.jpg

 

 

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3 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Umm... I'll respectfully disagree.  Here are the stats for 3 of them.  Who's who?

 

Without me telling you who's who, or looking it up, tell me these all don't look really similar.  Especially the first 2:

 

Slavin.jpg.ff3cf6d891ff66663160203a790d463a.jpg

 

Severson.jpg.05cda67cd0f6e967666f5612deda2dec.jpg

 

Parayko.jpg.9c9e500d24ca27034fcf71c6b5efcc7b.jpg

 

Morrissey.jpeg.cf5e60766607e8dc3088819df45f4fd3.jpeg

 

Then there's this... Seth Jones...

 

Jones.jpg.e7ba645809feabdd173a803869039d6d.jpg

 

 

You are only as good as your last year.  This year Severson has better numbers than everyone except for Jones.  However, as mentioned Jones is terrible in his own zone.  Severson is a better overall defenceman right now that all of those guys.  Severson is much better on the power play than Jones and has a much better shot.

 

Severson is basically one of the better all around Dmen in the NHL right now.  And he's a RHD who is in his prime years.  He's gonna get alot more than $6.25 million if he get to UFA status.

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4 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

You are only as good as your last year.  This year Severson has better numbers than everyone except for Jones.  However, as mentioned Jones is terrible in his own zone.  Severson is a better overall defenceman right now that all of those guys.  Severson is much better on the power play than Jones and has a much better shot.

 

Severson is basically one of the better all around Dmen in the NHL right now.  And he's a RHD who is in his prime years.  He's gonna get alot more than $6.25 million if he get to UFA status.

I'll agree to disagree.  I think showing you can do what you do for a number of years in succession means a lot more than one single year ... especially when it's a contract year.

At $8M AAV, he'd be one of the highest paid defencemen in the entire NHL.

 

Just an additional FYI, if you look up the numerous trade rumor articles around Severson, his comparison for value was Jake Muzzin.

 

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If Allvin is engaging wt NJ I'd like to see something like a sign & trade wt Boeser for  Mukhamadullin or Garland for Bahl + picks.  NJ gets their scorer they're looking for,  we get a younger player at a position of desperate need on an ELC which in turn gives Allvin his coveted cap flexibility.  Both Muk and Bahl have the potential to be top 4 shutdown types for a long time in this league, they fit our core age group perfectly.

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18 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I'll agree to disagree.  I think showing you can do what you do for a number of years in succession means a lot more than one single year ... especially when it's a contract year.

At $8M AAV, he'd be one of the highest paid defencemen in the entire NHL.

 

Just an additional FYI, if you look up the numerous trade rumor articles around Severson, his comparison for value was Jake Muzzin.

 

He does have one more year until he hits UFA status.  His numbers this year could very well be inflated.  However, if he puts up similar or better numbers next year his value will skyrocket.

 

Jake Muzzin is a terrible comparable.  He's 33 and having his worst year ever.  Muzzin is worse than Myers.

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Hard no to any long term salary retention whatsoever.  It wasn't acceptable when Gillis and Benning did it and is isn't acceptable now.  Allvin needs to be fired on the spot if he gives us dead cap after we're finally free of the dead weight.

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1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

He does have one more year until he hits UFA status.  His numbers this year could very well be inflated.  However, if he puts up similar or better numbers next year his value will skyrocket.

 

Jake Muzzin is a terrible comparable.  He's 33 and having his worst year ever.  Muzzin is worse than Myers.

I'm not comparing him to Muzzin, but the so-called 'experts' are lol.

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57 minutes ago, King Heffy said:

Hard no to any long term salary retention whatsoever.  It wasn't acceptable when Gillis and Benning did it and is isn't acceptable now.  Allvin needs to be fired on the spot if he gives us dead cap after we're finally free of the dead weight.

Dickinson and Poolman are dead weight that costs $5.1M ...

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44 minutes ago, King Heffy said:

They can play, they're just overpaid.  There is no excuse for retaining any salary whatsoever.  Find another way to move them if necessary.

They're taking up space on the roster for players that can be more useful.

 

For example, retaining $750k on Dickinson and signing Deslauriers for $1.75M means we're paying Deslauriers $2.5M vs Dickinson $2.65M... but Deslauriers is much more useful.

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2 minutes ago, HKSR said:

They're taking up space on the roster for players that can be more useful.

 

For example, retaining $750k on Dickinson and signing Deslauriers for $1.75M means we're paying Deslauriers $2.5M vs Dickinson $2.65M... but Deslauriers is much more useful.

Still not acceptable to me.  Either find another way or hope they play better in a reduced role next year.

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1 minute ago, King Heffy said:

Still not acceptable to me.  Either find another way or hope they play better in a reduced role next year.

What other way?  Give up assets to move them? 

 

How much more reduced roles can guys like Dickinson and Poolman play?  5th line minutes and 4th pairing D?  haha

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