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JT Miller -- Where do you think he will end up?

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HKSR

What team will JT Miller be on by 2023-24? (can pick more than one)  

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44 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Look at it this way.  Let's say if Miller wants to play until he's 38.  The only issue here is whether or not he's still a useful player at 38.  Maybe he's only a $4M or $5M player in Year 8.

 

So what could happen?

 

The difference with signing an 8 year deal with Vancouver vs 7 year deal with another team is this.  Let's say he's a useful $4M to $5M player in Year 8:

 

1. He signs an 8 year deal with Vancouver:  Vancouver hangs onto him even though he's a bit overpaid because he has a NMC.  Could he be bought out in Year 8? Sure... but unlikely as he's still a useful player on a team that is in their prime contender years.  Buying him out and replacing him with another player while sitting on dead cap is a lateral move for the Canucks.

 

2.  He signs a 7 year deal with another team and becomes a UFA after that.  There's no guarantee that the team that signed him to a 7 year deal right now will want him for Year 8.  ESPECIALLY true if that team is a contender right now.  In 7 years, the likelihood is that team will be rebuilding, and he could be bought out after year 6.  So now he has moved once away from Vancouver, and again at age 36.

 

So clearly, there's more security with the 8 year deal.

 

Let's say he's NOT a useful player in Year 8:

1.  As he has a NMC, Vancouver could either hang onto him for that final year (which happens all the time), or else he gets bought out and would retire (as he's not a useful player anymore).  Either way, he is in Vancouver.  Total income = $63 (bought out -- by definition it means he got paid his final year).

 

2.  He signs a 7 year deal with another team and would retire after that.  Total income = $63M. 

 

So if he's not a useful player after year 7, he's in exactly the same financial situation anyways.  Nothing gained or lost in either scenario.

 

If security is a primary goal for him, signing an 8 year deal certainly helps.  Of course, this is all predicated on him wanting to play until 38yo.  He may not, in which case, there's no point arguing about this lol.

 

And anyways,  this all stemmed from the fact that Stawns argued that an AAV that starts with $7.xxx would be laughed at.  I just wanted to show that the total income at $7.xxx from Vancouver could be equal to a $9M deal from another team.

how many 38 year old in this league are useful at 38 let alone be a 4-5mil player? the only way he gets his 63mil if he gets bought out is pretty much if his last years salary is like 1mil.. and if that's the case there's no way in hell they are buying him out as it would cost over 7mil in dead cap... 

 

if he signs with a contender if the team is rebuilding in 7 years they are likely to buy him out at 6?? why would a rebuilding team even bother buying him out?? if anything if he's still productive they would ask to see if he would like to go to a contender.. if the team is rebuilding.. why would miller want to stick around for the extra 1 or 2 years??

 

so if vancouver is rebuilding by year 7.. miller wants to stick around in vancouver just so he can grind out the vancouver travel schedule for 2 extra year??

 

if he's not a useful player after year 7.. no harm to the team that signed him to a 7 year deal.. the team that signed him to the 8 year deal?? the team that has him for 8 year is pretty screwed if that contract is front loaded and he's making only 1mil in the last year.. coz buying him out would cost them over 7mil in cap.. and if it's not front loaded he loses 2-3mil.. so not sure how that = no financial lost...

 

if he's a useful player after 7 years?? i'm sure he would want to go to a contender instead of a rebuilder.. if the team he's with is a contender.. and they don't want miller back even for 1mil?? then it's obvious he's not even good enough to be a 4th liner.

 

so this sign for 8 years for 1 extra year of security coz i want to retire at 38 not 37 or 36 no matter what makes 0 sense... so what happens if the team decides to buy you out in the 6th year instead? or the 5th year instead?? most contracts are no longer front loaded as it becomes buyout proof.. so if he ends up getting bought out coz he's no longer good enough.. he's going to lose a lot more in a 8 year contract vs a 7 year contract... you are basing it on he wants to play till 38.. there ain't even that many 38 years old in this league.. let alone productive ones... if he's only getting 20 points by 36 in a 3rd/4th line role and making 7.875 against the cap?? u can bet he's likely going to be bought out early if the team is still competitive in a win now mode

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5 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

how many 38 year old in this league are useful at 38 let alone be a 4-5mil player? the only way he gets his 63mil if he gets bought out is pretty much if his last years salary is like 1mil.. and if that's the case there's no way in hell they are buying him out as it would cost over 7mil in dead cap... 

 

if he signs with a contender if the team is rebuilding in 7 years they are likely to buy him out at 6?? why would a rebuilding team even bother buying him out?? if anything if he's still productive they would ask to see if he would like to go to a contender.. if the team is rebuilding.. why would miller want to stick around for the extra 1 or 2 years??

 

so if vancouver is rebuilding by year 7.. miller wants to stick around in vancouver just so he can grind out the vancouver travel schedule for 2 extra year??

 

if he's not a useful player after year 7.. no harm to the team that signed him to a 7 year deal.. the team that signed him to the 8 year deal?? the team that has him for 8 year is pretty screwed if that contract is front loaded and he's making only 1mil in the last year.. coz buying him out would cost them over 7mil in cap.. and if it's not front loaded he loses 2-3mil.. so not sure how that = no financial lost...

 

if he's a useful player after 7 years?? i'm sure he would want to go to a contender instead of a rebuilder.. if the team he's with is a contender.. and they don't want miller back even for 1mil?? then it's obvious he's not even good enough to be a 4th liner.

 

so this sign for 8 years for 1 extra year of security coz i want to retire at 38 not 37 or 36 no matter what makes 0 sense... so what happens if the team decides to buy you out in the 6th year instead? or the 5th year instead?? most contracts are no longer front loaded as it becomes buyout proof.. so if he ends up getting bought out coz he's no longer good enough.. he's going to lose a lot more in a 8 year contract vs a 7 year contract... you are basing it on he wants to play till 38.. there ain't even that many 38 years old in this league.. let alone productive ones... if he's only getting 20 points by 36 in a 3rd/4th line role and making 7.875 against the cap?? u can bet he's likely going to be bought out early if the team is still competitive in a win now mode

 

Ok, first and foremost, you need to understand that "BUYING OUT" a contract means paying out the remainder owed.  If a team buys out Miller's contract, he doesn't lose ANYTHING financially.  He just gets all of his money NOW.

 

Anyways, as a lot of people speculate, the Canucks will be in their prime contending years between 4 to 7 years from now (when Hughes and Petey are in their prime).  Vancouver won't be rebuilding.  So not sure why you think he'll be grinding it out on some rebuilding team with Vancouver.

 

"the team that signed him to the 8 year deal?? the team that has him for 8 year is pretty screwed" -- You're looking at it from the team's perspective, not Miller's.  I'm talking from Miller's perspective.  He cares about Miller and the Miller family in Year 7 or 8 of his final contract.

 

"if he's a useful player after 7 years?? i'm sure he would want to go to a contender instead of a rebuilder.. if the team he's with is a contender.. and they don't want miller back even for 1mil?? then it's obvious he's not even good enough to be a 4th liner." -- so you agree.  Thanks.  After 7 years, if he's a useful player, he may have to MOVE ... AGAIN.  With the Canucks, he doesn't need to worry about that if it's an 8 year deal.  That's the security I'm talking about.

 

Like I said, it only matters if he's a useful player in Year 8:

1.  Sign with a contender now, likelihood is that team will be rebuilding in Year 8.  Find a new home in Year 8 Mr. Miller.

2.  Sign with Vancouver now.  Likelihood is that the Canucks will be in their prime contending years or close to it in Year 8.  Good to see your family is having a good time in Vancouver Mr. Miller.

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2 hours ago, HKSR said:

 

Ok, first and foremost, you need to understand that "BUYING OUT" a contract means paying out the remainder owed.  If a team buys out Miller's contract, he doesn't lose ANYTHING financially.  He just gets all of his money NOW.

 

Anyways, as a lot of people speculate, the Canucks will be in their prime contending years between 4 to 7 years from now (when Hughes and Petey are in their prime).  Vancouver won't be rebuilding.  So not sure why you think he'll be grinding it out on some rebuilding team with Vancouver.

 

"the team that signed him to the 8 year deal?? the team that has him for 8 year is pretty screwed" -- You're looking at it from the team's perspective, not Miller's.  I'm talking from Miller's perspective.  He cares about Miller and the Miller family in Year 7 or 8 of his final contract.

 

"if he's a useful player after 7 years?? i'm sure he would want to go to a contender instead of a rebuilder.. if the team he's with is a contender.. and they don't want miller back even for 1mil?? then it's obvious he's not even good enough to be a 4th liner." -- so you agree.  Thanks.  After 7 years, if he's a useful player, he may have to MOVE ... AGAIN.  With the Canucks, he doesn't need to worry about that if it's an 8 year deal.  That's the security I'm talking about.

 

Like I said, it only matters if he's a useful player in Year 8:

1.  Sign with a contender now, likelihood is that team will be rebuilding in Year 8.  Find a new home in Year 8 Mr. Miller.

2.  Sign with Vancouver now.  Likelihood is that the Canucks will be in their prime contending years or close to it in Year 8.  Good to see your family is having a good time in Vancouver Mr. Miller.

A player is not guaranteed his money.   1/3 his salary if he's 26 or younger 2/3 if he's older.   One way they can get around this if it's bonus structured.   The bonus money has to be paid.   2/3 of the remainder in Miller case needs to be paid if bought out (min)...Why i keep suggesting the team does what they did with Zib.   He's going to get most his money no matter what.   And make it a 5 year deal.    Most likely he ends up with the same or more money then he'd get under a -7 or 8 year deal that's worth quite a bit more.   Of course it still all counts against the cap too. 

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1 hour ago, grandmaster said:

I wonder if all 3 of Brock, Miller and Bo can get together and work out contracts so they all can stay without having to lose one.

That would be sweet,.   I think that would come with strong NTC’s though.

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30 minutes ago, IBatch said:

A player is not guaranteed his money.   1/3 his salary if he's 26 or younger 2/3 if he's older.   One way they can get around this if it's bonus structured.   The bonus money has to be paid.   2/3 of the remainder in Miller case needs to be paid if bought out (min)...Why i keep suggesting the team does what they did with Zib.   He's going to get most his money no matter what.   And make it a 5 year deal.    Most likely he ends up with the same or more money then he'd get under a -7 or 8 year deal that's worth quite a bit more.   Of course it still all counts against the cap too. 

You're correct.

 

I think it was Zib or Hertl, but one of them has a $1m salary and the rest is all bonus.

 

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21 minutes ago, HKSR said:

You're correct.

 

I think it was Zib or Hertl, but one of them has a $1m salary and the rest is all bonus.

 

Yes i think Zib.   Why i think we should offer him a 9.?! 9.25? x 5 deal.   And bonus all but one million like Zib.   Means he's going to get 42ish no mater what (gross) ... and if he signed say a 8.5 x 7/8 deal most likely he gets bought out the last couple years like Parise and Suter just did.   Gets more upfront too, with investments will likely end up more, even though it's less overall money ... AND if he doesn't want to retire and can still play can keep earning.   It fits our team anyways.   Only tough part for is the taxes.   Can't help much on that part although i'm sure swavy guys like you could help him out a lot too.   That's what i'm hoping anyways if we do re-sign him.    

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9 hours ago, HKSR said:

 

Ok, first and foremost, you need to understand that "BUYING OUT" a contract means paying out the remainder owed.  If a team buys out Miller's contract, he doesn't lose ANYTHING financially.  He just gets all of his money NOW.

 

Anyways, as a lot of people speculate, the Canucks will be in their prime contending years between 4 to 7 years from now (when Hughes and Petey are in their prime).  Vancouver won't be rebuilding.  So not sure why you think he'll be grinding it out on some rebuilding team with Vancouver.

 

"the team that signed him to the 8 year deal?? the team that has him for 8 year is pretty screwed" -- You're looking at it from the team's perspective, not Miller's.  I'm talking from Miller's perspective.  He cares about Miller and the Miller family in Year 7 or 8 of his final contract.

 

"if he's a useful player after 7 years?? i'm sure he would want to go to a contender instead of a rebuilder.. if the team he's with is a contender.. and they don't want miller back even for 1mil?? then it's obvious he's not even good enough to be a 4th liner." -- so you agree.  Thanks.  After 7 years, if he's a useful player, he may have to MOVE ... AGAIN.  With the Canucks, he doesn't need to worry about that if it's an 8 year deal.  That's the security I'm talking about.

 

Like I said, it only matters if he's a useful player in Year 8:

1.  Sign with a contender now, likelihood is that team will be rebuilding in Year 8.  Find a new home in Year 8 Mr. Miller.

2.  Sign with Vancouver now.  Likelihood is that the Canucks will be in their prime contending years or close to it in Year 8.  Good to see your family is having a good time in Vancouver Mr. Miller.

buying out a contract means u pay 2/3 of his remaining salary so how doe that equate to he gets paid instantly and doesn't lose anything finanically?? 

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15 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

buying out a contract means u pay 2/3 of his remaining salary so how doe that equate to he gets paid instantly and doesn't lose anything finanically?? 

In his world contract size in the future doesn't matter due to inflation. Miller's salary will be equal to a double cheeseburger in 2029. It's a really new wave business model. :lol:

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On 5/6/2022 at 12:18 PM, grandmaster said:

I wonder if all 3 of Brock, Miller and Bo can get together and work out contracts so they all can stay without having to lose one.

Remember a few months ago Rutherford said we have no superstars on this team. That was not to get Petty motivated which it actually did, and everyone got focused on that. He said it to essentially say we are not going to be signing superstar long term contracts anytime soon. If the 3 sign here it would be imperative they do so with a "home team discount". similar to what Ryan Nugget-Hopkins did with Edm.

 

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5 minutes ago, Vancan2021 said:

Remember a few months ago Rutherford said we have no superstars on this team. That was not to get Petty motivated which it actually did, and everyone got focused on that. He said it to essentially say we are not going to be signing superstar long term contracts anytime soon. If the 3 sign here it would be imperative they do so with a "home team discount". similar to what Ryan Nugget-Hopkins did with Edm.

 

Did Nuge put up 99 points, while being a heavy load, and mean?  

I see a hometown discount for Miller being 6 years x 8.5 mil.  

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3 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Did Nuge put up 99 points, while being a heavy load, and mean?  

I see a hometown discount for Miller being 6 years x 8.5 mil.  

I was not trying to compare RNH to Miller. Just used him as an example, with how he could have received a more lucrative contract with another team, but took a lesser deal to stay with the Oilers. Moral of the story is Bo, Brock, JT will need to have that same attitude.

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3 minutes ago, Vancan2021 said:

I was not trying to compare RNH to Miller. Just used him as an example, with how he could have received a more lucrative contract with another team, but took a lesser deal to stay with the Oilers. Moral of the story is Bo, Brock, JT will need to have that same attitude.

For each of Miller, Bo, and Brock what do you see as a hometown (Nuge like) discount?

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41 minutes ago, Vancan2021 said:

Remember a few months ago Rutherford said we have no superstars on this team. That was not to get Petty motivated which it actually did, and everyone got focused on that. He said it to essentially say we are not going to be signing superstar long term contracts anytime soon. If the 3 sign here it would be imperative they do so with a "home team discount". similar to what Ryan Nugget-Hopkins did with Edm.

 

Maybe i can be corrected - but my recollection it was Bruce who was asked the question (do you have any superstars etc) .   His answer was no - but right after that said QHs was close - if not already there, and at the end also said EP has it in him as well.   Also refers to Demko as a franchise goalie.    We don't need to get caught up in the nomenclature - but by pure definition they (IF JR said it too) they are both correct.   To be a super-star you need to be a perrenial all-star - as in first or second or very close to it, year in year out.   We've only ever really had two, and only one made it to the HHOF. 

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5 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Maybe i can be corrected - but my recollection it was Bruce who was asked the question (do you have any superstars etc) .   His answer was no - but right after that said QHs was close - if not already there, and at the end also said EP has it in him as well.   Also refers to Demko as a franchise goalie.    We don't need to get caught up in the nomenclature - but by pure definition they (IF JR said it too) they are both correct.   To be a super-star you need to be a perrenial all-star - as in first or second or very close to it, year in year out.   We've only ever really had two, and only one made it to the HHOF. 

Both are wrong lol. It was Pat Alvine. Agreed QH, Demko, EP will be in the superstar conversation sooner then later, but they are not on the need to sign rader right now. That is why I through in the anytime soon superstar contract comment. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Alflives said:

For each of Miller, Bo, and Brock what do you see as a hometown (Nuge like) discount?

In a perfect world and keeping it fair for both involved. 

 

JT 6 years X 8- Get 3 productive years and center, but will be declining after year 3 however still an asset on wing for the remainder

Bo 6 years X 6- Second line center money, could go a little north of 6 mil due to captancey. Last few years most likely dropped down to 3rd line center, not because of his heart, just a lot of hockey taking its toll and others taking the spot. Still will be an asset for the 6 years.

BB needs to take a one year qualifying offer to show his talent we all know he has in him. 99% of hockey player wish they had a shot like him, he just needs to find it again. Unfortunately if Brock is not scoring he is not doing much else for you. Yes I know he has improved his 200 foot game, but still average at best. Whether he does or does not find his shot will determine how much and how long.

 

Great question though. What are other folks thoughts? 

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19 hours ago, Vancan2021 said:

In a perfect world and keeping it fair for both involved. 

 

JT 6 years X 8- Get 3 productive years and center, but will be declining after year 3 however still an asset on wing for the remainder

Bo 6 years X 6- Second line center money, could go a little north of 6 mil due to captancey. Last few years most likely dropped down to 3rd line center, not because of his heart, just a lot of hockey taking its toll and others taking the spot. Still will be an asset for the 6 years.

BB needs to take a one year qualifying offer to show his talent we all know he has in him. 99% of hockey player wish they had a shot like him, he just needs to find it again. Unfortunately if Brock is not scoring he is not doing much else for you. Yes I know he has improved his 200 foot game, but still average at best. Whether he does or does not find his shot will determine how much and how long.

 

Great question though. What are other folks thoughts? 

Looking over the teams that might do a trade for JT (contender, positional team need/leadership and doable cap hit),

it is extremely hard to identify a club that would take on such a lofty contract.  Most of them have recently signed big

contracts, are loaded with NMCs/NTCs or simply don't have (or want to trade) the players/prospects required.

The only team that makes sense to me is Boston, but only if they are desperate to stay in the contender window

for another 2-3 more years (one mustn't overlook the amount of $ a team can make during a playoff run).  They

don't have much in the way of young players to offer; maybe Debrusk + Lysell?

 

I think Nucks find out what Miller's asking price is and if they're not satisfied, let JT's agent talk to a couple of

interested teams; see if his value is as high as people think.  Who knows, maybe it's not in that range and

JT can be had for less $ and or term.

 

$8m x 6 seems low at the moment, but I think most Canuck fans would be thrilled by that signing.

 

Most would be happy with Bo at 6 - 6.5 but I think Bo would want the 8yr term.

 

I think Canuck fans are wary of Brock's next contract for obvious reasons.  It will have to be negotiated to a lower

$ and 'show me' term.  Maybe $6m x 2yr?

 

Still, I think one of those players will be traded this summer.  Hard to make the improvements the team needs

with the 2023 salary cap.

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34 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

Looking over the teams that might do a trade for JT (contender, positional team need/leadership and doable cap hit),

it is extremely hard to identify a club that would take on such a lofty contract.  Most of them have recently signed big

contracts, are loaded with NMCs/NTCs or simply don't have (or want to trade) the players/prospects required.

The only team that makes sense to me is Boston, but only if they are desperate to stay in the contender window

for another 2-3 more years (one mustn't overlook the amount of $ a team can make during a playoff run).  They

don't have much in the way of young players to offer; maybe Debrusk + Lysell?

 

I think Nucks find out what Miller's asking price is and if they're not satisfied, let JT's agent talk to a couple of

interested teams; see if his value is as high as people think.  Who knows, maybe it's not in that range and

JT can be had for less $ and or term.

 

$8m x 6 seems low at the moment, but I think most Canuck fans would be thrilled by that signing.

 

Most would be happy with Bo at 6 - 6.5 but I think Bo would want the 8yr term.

 

I think Canuck fans are wary of Brock's next contract for obvious reasons.  It will have to be negotiated to a lower

$ and 'show me' term.  Maybe $6m x 2yr?

 

Still, I think one of those players will be traded this summer.  Hard to make the improvements the team needs

with the 2023 salary cap.

Well not saying it doesn't happen - but no agent should be or can be talking to another team about what salaries could look like unless he's a free agent - or at least been traded at the deadline and it's a sign and trade sort of thing.   Wishful thinking.   

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