2022 James Norris Memorial Trophy finalists unveiled

[Kevin Biestra]

6 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

Josi robbed, yep. I understand the advanced stats but come on - look at the teams these players are on. Makar is on a world beater team with a PPG partner and simply a team who control the puck most of the time. Defensively he's alright but simply watching him play, he's not the strongest defensively in the world.

 

Josi on the other hand is the best player on his team by a long shot. He would have been my MVP vote as well. Look how average that Nashville team is if you take Josi out - they don't make the playoffs IMO. He out-scored Makar and is relied on to play better defence, and all the while with a crappy team.

 

This league just wanted to give the young flashy guys some hardware this season and they have, Makar and Matthews are their golden boys but Josi really deserved this much more than Makar (who may well deservedly still win playoff MVP).

 

Yeah as I pointed out a while back, Josi's points for a defenseman this year actually puts him in a much more exclusive club than Matthews' 60 goals.  It's as exclusive as the 70 goal club.

 

The last time anyone matched Josi's points from the blueline was Phil Housley 30 years ago.  It has actually been about 30 years since anyone matched Makar or Hedman from this year, and Josi blew them out of the water.

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Kevin Biestra

[shiznak]

56 minutes ago, mll said:

 

Nashville doesn't want Josi to PK.  He used to PK but they specifically added 3rd pairing Ds for the PK, because they believe his energy is better used elsewhere.

Not convinced that public stats are all that reliable to draw meaningful conclusions.  Several teams have also confirmed that their expected goal numbers are widely different.  They can't capture pre-shot movements or screens as well as goalie positioning and can be widely out of range.  Who they play with also matters - a group of skilled players who can cycle the puck and maintain possession efficiently will probably allow less shots against than a group who is not as efficient at maintaining possession and is more chasing the play.  Toews is also a more reliable D-partner than Fabbro which probably also impacts how they are deployed.  

 

Corsi is too system dependent and doesn't capture shot quality.  Tracking technology shows that it often doesn't even reflect possession.  It's simply a balance of shots for and against regardless of shot quality.  Trotz says he prefers 1 shot at 40% vs 40 shots at 1%.  The latter will have the higher Corsi as there are more shots for.  Expected goals can be influenced by volume - 50 shots at 1% has a higher expected goal than 1 shot at 40%.  

  

This was their comparison back in March using tracking technology.  

 

I mean, if you want to look at the micro stats.

 

Makar:

Spoiler

 

Josi:

Spoiler

 

Makar has a better denial rate, pass exit percentage, and exit succession in his own zone. 

[mll]

5 hours ago, shiznak said:

I mean, if you want to look at the micro stats.

 

Makar:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Josi:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Makar has a better denial rate, pass exit percentage, and exit succession in his own zone. 

Not all games are tracked.  It's done manually and they track only a subset of games. 

 

Kelly shared some numbers using Sportlogiq's tracking technology which is used by a majority of NHL teams.  Can't really reconcile those figures with the numbers you posted.  He has nearly 100 more possession exits than the next D by mid-March.

 

It's also ranked by percentile which doesn't give an indication on gap.  By April, tracking technology showed that Heiskanen was 2nd in controlled entries but there's nearly a 60% gap in actual counts to Josi, yet in percentile Josi would be 100% and Heiskanen 99%.

 

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by mll

[hammertime]

5 hours ago, shiznak said:

I mean, if you want to look at the micro stats.

 

Makar:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Josi:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Makar has a better denial rate, pass exit percentage, and exit succession in his own zone. 

I personally am not a fan of %ages without knowing the sample size. 

[HKSR]

8 hours ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

Yeah as I pointed out a while back, Josi's points for a defenseman this year actually puts him in a much more exclusive club than Matthews' 60 goals.  It's as exclusive as the 70 goal club.

 

The last time anyone matched Josi's points from the blueline was Phil Housley 30 years ago.  It has actually been about 30 years since anyone matched Makar or Hedman from this year, and Josi blew them out of the water.

 

Agreed.  Josi had a season for the ages this year.  I mean, think about it, we rave about JT Miller's 99 points as a forward, best numbers since Henrik Sedin.  Josi had 3 points less than Miller. 

 

It's ridiculous that Josi didn't get the Norris this year. 

[shiznak]

3 hours ago, mll said:

Not all games are tracked.  It's done manually and they track only a subset of games. 

 

Kelly shared some numbers using Sportlogiq's tracking technology which is used by a majority of NHL teams.  Can't really reconcile those figures with the numbers you posted.  He has nearly 100 more possession exits than the next D by mid-March.

 

It's also ranked by percentile which doesn't give an indication on gap.  By April, tracking technology showed that Heiskanen was 2nd in controlled entries but there's nearly a 60% gap in actual counts to Josi, yet in percentile Josi would be 100% and Heiskanen 99%.

 

 

Not sure what you’re trying to prove as the chart I posted matches the information you posted.

 

Both showed Josi was better at possession exits and possession entries, but overall looking at the defensive side. Makar was the clear favourite. Possession exits/entries also has a lot to do with how much your team is playing in your own end and who your defensive partner is. As you mentioned, Makar plays with Toews, who is a pretty good puck mover as well. Makar doesn’t have to always rely on himself to carry the puck out of the zone like how Josi does. 

 

[mll]

3 minutes ago, shiznak said:

Not sure what you’re trying to prove as the chart I posted matches the information you posted.

 

Both showed Josi was better at possession exits and possession entries, but overall looking at the defensive side. Makar was the clear favourite. Possession exits/entries also has a lot to do with how much your team is playing in your own end and who your defensive partner is. As you mentioned, Makar plays with Toews, who is a pretty good puck mover as well. Makar doesn’t have to always rely on himself to carry the puck out of the zone like how Josi does. 

 

Josi is the best at possession exits according to tracking technology but is not even at 80% in the charts you posted.  That feels like a sample issue when only a subset of games are tracked.

 

There's a significant gap in quality between the Colorado roster and Nashville's.  It's also systems, environment - just look at the Pionk charts who goes from barely an NHLer in NYR to a legit top-4 D just by changing systems/environment.  I am just not convinced that there's enough quality data available publicly to make some statements that are being made.  If Makar plays with Fabbro in Nashville, would he have the same numbers or Josi in Colorado with Toews.

Nashville is far too reliant on Josi and I wonder if it's not doing them a disservice to have so much run though him.  Not sure Fabbro would be a top-4D on a standalone basis.  

 

[DownUndaCanuck]

13 hours ago, shiznak said:

I mean, if you want to look at the micro stats.

 

Makar:

  Hide contents

 

Josi:

  Hide contents

 

Makar has a better denial rate, pass exit percentage, and exit succession in his own zone. 

I agree Makar's stats look good but we all get too focussed with them sometime, and I wonder how many of these stats are influenced by the team you're on.

 

If your team is generally better at skating, drilled well together and smoother at skating up ice then your exit succession and pass exit percentage is going to be higher than if you played on a crappy team with AHLers.

 

When you just watch the two players, you notice little things like Makar losing his check along the boards every now and then or over-committing offensively. You also notice how hard Josi plays physically, how he grinds down and really wears down forwards. Not really a statistic for that.

 

These stats are nice but they're so hard when it comes to directly comparing players because I think there's a big influence on all stats depending on which team you're on. All of Colorado's players must have similar stats. If there was a way to standardize it against the team average, that might be interesting but again not as useful sometimes as subjective measures.

[flat land fish]

Josi probably should have won Norris and the hart.  Take Josi off Nashville and they are a bottom 10 team.  

Edited June 23, 2022 by flat land fish

[mll]

On 6/22/2022 at 2:39 AM, R3aL said:

I don’t understand that at all.

 

who’s voting josi 3rd and 4th there..

 

When does the voting take place? Cause I’m thinking voters have been seduced by makars playoff performances here.

 

his defensive numbers were the best and he out scored Forsberg and his entire team. He outscored nathan mackinnon lmao

 

Makar going to win a lot of hardware but this one I think was clearly josi’s

 

4th place:  

Thomas Drance who gave a 5th place vote to Tanev

Fluto Shinzawa (Boston beat writer) - had McAvoy 1st

Jeff Marek

 

Scott Powers, Chicago beat writer for The Athletic, left Josi entirely off his ballot and gave a 3rd place vote to Toews.

 

 

[R3aL]

10 minutes ago, mll said:

 

4th place:  

Thomas Drance who gave a 5th place vote to Tanev

Fluto Shinzawa (Boston beat writer) - had McAvoy 1st

Jeff Marek

 

Scott Powers, Chicago beat writer for The Athletic, left Josi entirely off his ballot and gave a 3rd place vote to Toews.

 

 

Love to hear Drancers reasoning for that and 2 sn650 regulars voted 4th, wild.

 

 

[J-Dizzle]

On 6/21/2022 at 9:54 PM, mll said:

 

Oh dear lord…. Drance