Canuck even strength offense

[Ilunga]

17 minutes ago, IBatch said:

TB ... Miller makes 850k LESS on his deal playing here, then he did in the US. It's like beating a dead horse.   Those guys taxes at 36.4 vs 53%...well you do the math.   Their "discounts" aren't as big as you might think.    They are masters all right - of drafting well and LUCKY enough to afford an extra Stamkos plus (think about what we could do with say 100 million instead of 81.5) ... Absolutely agree Hedman is better.    QHs would have to be getting over 9 to have the same salary here in Vancouver.   It's not apples and apples. 

Alright then even a dumbass farmer like me here in Aus knows that the property tax rate in Vancouver is the lowest in North America.

 

So what would I do if I was a hockey player earning millions in Vancouver ?

 

Maybe invest in property ? 

A clever accountant will turn millions into millions more.

 

Apples are Apples. 

 

I am sick of hearing the excuses made that taxes are less or blah blah blah. 

 

The fact of the matter is we don't draft as well as other teams and we do not manage our cap as well.

 

Edited May 21, 2022 by Ilunga

[IBatch]

Great job JamesB.   I've been pumping Garlands tires on other threads - he's on an awesome contract for us - and not someone i'd like to see traded.   Absolutely drove the play, was a pest, drew penalties, made any line a little or even a lot better  .... and was 11th overall for RWs in plus minus, at or near the top on penalties drawn RW, 22nd in scoring and much higher for 5 x 5 for his positions, and is the 26th highest paid RW.    In a couple years he will be in the 40 plus range there... definitely not a cap dump, and personally wouldn't trade him for a first rounder unless it was 10 or higher.   Every single league he's been in, he's figured it out.    Has some Martin St. Louis in him.   Has a chance to be our McKinnon IF he also gets first PP time.   Add 25 points to his totals and that's mid 70's production for a song. 

[BPA]

4 hours ago, IBatch said:

Great job JamesB.   I've been pumping Garlands tires on other threads - he's on an awesome contract for us - and not someone i'd like to see traded.   Absolutely drove the play, was a pest, drew penalties, made any line a little or even a lot better  .... and was 11th overall for RWs in plus minus, at or near the top on penalties drawn RW, 22nd in scoring and much higher for 5 x 5 for his positions, and is the 26th highest paid RW.    In a couple years he will be in the 40 plus range there... definitely not a cap dump, and personally wouldn't trade him for a first rounder unless it was 10 or higher.   Every single league he's been in, he's figured it out.    Has some Martin St. Louis in him.   Has a chance to be our McKinnon IF he also gets first PP time.   Add 25 points to his totals and that's mid 70's production for a song. 

Only way Garland gets to add 25pts from the PP is if Miller is traded.  Cuz on the PP, it’s usually Miller, EP40, and QH that get the touches.  BB (down low) and Bo (bumper slot) get clean up duty.

[bishopshodan]

8 hours ago, Ilunga said:

We can afford to do that next year however the year after those 3 guys will probably be taking up over a quarter of our cap space. 

 

We don't have quality prospects coming through that will be on ELC's to balance them out. 

 

Cup winning teams are built through drafting 

 

https://puckprose.com/2021/07/20/nhl-draft-teams-best-draft-pick-time/

 

While Jim has drafted decently players like Hughes and Petersson, they aren't giving us those few years on cheaper contracts to help build a contender.

 

While I appreciate what Hughes brings to our team he gets the same amount $7,850,000 AAV as Hedman ?

 Both have 6 years left on their contract. Hedman is a true  franchise D- man, his defensive game is just as good as his offensive game, a complete D- man.

He scored 85 points in 82 games this year.

Hughes scored 68 points in 76.

He is nowhere near the defenseman Hedman is.

 

And before anyone brings age into the discussion Lidstrom won the first of his Norris Trophies at Victors age.

If anyone reminds me of Nik it's Victor and he has already won one.

 

That however is not my point.

 

My point is using cap space and the draft wisely. 

 

The real contenders are masters of this, we not so much.

I think QH is brilliant. We will see how his career numbers match up vs Hedman I guess. I am no ageist but I still think doing a comparison between the 22 yr old QH  vs the 31 yr old VH, that age difference is an important factor in who I would rather have right now. As he is still so young, Quinn will likely get even better.  

Also, take a look at Hedmen's numbers when he was 22...Quinn wins that comparison easy. 

 

Now that said, i would keep the old Miller.

You make good points but I have mentioned many times I believe our window is in the next 2-4 years if we do things right.

So I want to load up, pay up, mortgage the future, for these next few years.

 

Go all in. Players that can contribute now.

 

IF we can win just one cup, I don't care if we are competitive again for a 10 years.

 

[-AJ-]

20 hours ago, JamesB said:

 

Thanks for the comments. Some pushback on Dickenson as 3C and I cannot really disagree. Here are the faceoff numbers for each guy who took over 100 faceoffs. The number is the % won.

 

Horvat 57%

Richardson 57% (with Canucks)

Miller 54%

Lammikko 51%

Petey 44%

Dickinson 43%.

 

(It is clear that the Canucks were a very good faceoff team overall. It actually makes less difference than most people would think at 5-on-5 but it is important on special teams as possessions last longer on special teams.)

 

And, for Dickinson, that is pretty close to his career average. Probably not good enough to play 3C. So I agree, looks like the wing for him. And of course the Canucks would like to unload him to free up cap space if they could. But if he stays on the team he might actually be an asset next year as he is good defensively and should contribute more offensively. 

Little tidbit: Petey's number stick out as better than he was earlier and I checked out his end-of-season numbers. Since February, he's at a 47.7%, face-off percentage, which isn't amazing, but better than he's usually been. Maybe there's hope for him to finally be improving here! McDavid finally became a good face-off guy this year at 25, so there's hope for Petey too.

[Guest]

On 5/20/2022 at 11:11 AM, JamesB said:

 

Yes, there was a lot of talk all season and how good Garland's 5-on-5 numbers were and how bad Boeser's were. However, it is important to remember the role of luck in goal scoring. Sometimes you run into a hot goalie and sometimes you run into a goalie who lets in some soft goals. And sample size is an issue, even for a full season. For those reasons a lot of people, including me,  prefer to look at on-ice expected goals per 60 minutes as a measure of offence. These numbers look a lot closer to the "conventional wisdom", although there are still a few surprises. Here are the numbers for all forwards who played at least 150 minutes. And I am using all even strength situations, not just 5-on-5. The data is from Natural Stat Trick

 

So you are looking at expected goals FOR only?  

Also you are not accounting for quality of competition.  Motte - Lammikko - Highmore were often playing against the other team's best lines.  It's a lot easier to play better against JT Compher line as opposed to the MacKinnon line. 

 

Anyways good thread OP, interesting discussion.  I like to nitpick  

[JamesB]

4 hours ago, VancouverHabitant said:

So you are looking at expected goals FOR only?  

Also you are not accounting for quality of competition.  Motte - Lammikko - Highmore were often playing against the other team's best lines.  It's a lot easier to play better against JT Compher line as opposed to the MacKinnon line. 

 

Anyways good thread OP, interesting discussion.  I like to nitpick  

Good points. I was going to mention quality of competition (and quality of linemates). Both are relevant but, as far as I know, there is no good way of adjusting for those factors. 

 

Motte, Lammikko, Highmore did spend a fair amount of time playing shutdown (or "matchup" as people now seem to call it). However, they also spent a lot of time against other teams' 4th lines and pretty much never faced top D-pairings. Miller often played head to head against other top lines, or faced a shudown line from the other team. And he always faced tough D pairings. So it is hard to know how much quality of opposition skews the results, if at all.

 

As for quality of lilnemates, In a sense Motte, Lammikko and Highmore were all disadvantaged by playing with other instead of playing with Miller or Petey or Horvat. But that line of thinking gets kind of circular. The coach puts the best offensive players together and the 4th line is, in effect, the guys who are left over. So I am not sure what adjustment is called for on this point, if any. 

 

Anyway, thanks for the comment.  

[Ilunga]

6 hours ago, bishopshodan said:

I think QH is brilliant. We will see how his career numbers match up vs Hedman I guess. I am no ageist but I still think doing a comparison between the 22 yr old QH  vs the 31 yr old VH, that age difference is an important factor in who I would rather have right now. As he is still so young, Quinn will likely get even better.  

Also, take a look at Hedmen's numbers when he was 22...Quinn wins that comparison easy. 

 

Now that said, i would keep the old Miller.

You make good points but I have mentioned many times I believe our window is in the next 2-4 years if we do things right.

So I want to load up, pay up, mortgage the future, for these next few years.

 

Go all in. Players that can contribute now.

 

IF we can win just one cup, I don't care if we are competitive again for a 10 years.

 

I hate losing.

 

I mean I really hate losing.

 

Money means nothing to me, winning means everything. 

 

The few times I lost a race or lost a street fight, lost a few more of them l, I would go home,cry, then train my ass off and win the next one. 

 

I love ice hockey, it's the only team sport I play.

Smashed and getting smashed on the most frictionless substance known to our species is so much fun even as I approach 60. 

 

I love the Canucks however this current version will not win a cup.

 

We do not have the defense to win. 

 

We do not have the star power on our wings. 

 

We do have the depth at centre and Demko is shaping up as one of the best goal tenders in the league. 

 

As for Hughes it's not just about numbers it's about a defensman being able to play defense,that is a defensmans  job first and foremost and he is not even in the same league as Hedman.

None of our defensman are. 

 

Like it or not there is a salary cap.

You have to build a team around that structure. 

Management has not managed our cap well.

 

 

The only way this team will win a cup in the next five years is to trade guys like Miller and OEL maybe Garland, and Boeser, guys we can get a good return for.

In return we get back some picks and more importantly prospects that are near or ready to step into the NHL. 

Those prospects learn their trade for the next 3- 4 years.

Then those picks will enter the NHL around the same time and boom we have a contender.

If we make the right moves and draft well.

 

I guarantee you this, if we spend 30 mill plus on four players, Hughes, Miller, Petersson and Horvat, in the next four years, we do not have the supporting cast to win a cup, talent and cap space wise.

[bishopshodan]

3 minutes ago, Ilunga said:

As for Hughes it's not just about numbers it's about a defensman being able to play defense,that is a defensmans  job first and foremost and he is not even in the same league as Hedman.

I love Hedman. When the careers of these two are done we can do the comparison if you want but they are not the same type of dudes at all and have a decade between them.

 

Maybe if you think of Hughes as a rover it might help you see his brilliance. 

 

As for the rest of your post. I just value our core differently than you. I stated my idea already, load up and go for it in the next 4 years. Keep our 3 wicked centres, Demmer and Hughes. Support that core and go get a cup by any means necessary.

[Ilunga]

8 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

I love Hedman. When the careers of these two are done we can do the comparison if you want but they are not the same type of dudes at all and have a decade between them.

 

Maybe if you think of Hughes as a rover it might help you see his brilliance. 

 

As for the rest of your post. I just value our core differently than you. I stated my idea already, load up and go for it in the next 4 years. Keep our 3 wicked centres, Demmer and Hughes. Support that core and go get a cup by any means necessary.

That my point my friend, that core will not win us a cup on its own, and certainly not with the current supporting cast.  

You have to give to get. 

 

Look at Tampa's D that can actually play defense as well as score. 

 

Their top Four, Hedman, McDonagh, Sergachev and Cernak cost them a total of cost them just over 21.5 million.

They are 31,32, 23,24 respectively. 

And they have Cal Foote coming up who I believe is going to be a solid top pairing D-Man.

 

Look at our top four 

Hughes, OEL, Myers and Dermott that cost us a million more and are 22, 30, 32, 25.

 

Which D are you going to take.

 

It's not even a competition. 

 

I agree build around the core of younger guys however we won't win a cup next year and paying Miller northwards of 8 million, maybe even 9 in his thirties on the back of a couple of years where he played over a PPG ?

 

Check his career stats they are not those of a consistently top scoring player in the NHL. 

[bishopshodan]

4 minutes ago, Ilunga said:

That my point my friend, that core will not win us a cup on its own, and certainly not with the current supporting cast.  

You have to give to get. 

 

Look at Tampa's D that can actually play defense as well as score. 

 

Their top Four, Hedman, McDonagh, Sergachev and Cernak cost them a total of cost them just over 21.5 million.

They are 31,32, 23,24 respectively. 

And they have Cal Foote coming up who I believe is going to be a solid top pairing D-Man.

 

Look at our top four 

Hughes, OEL, Myers and Dermott that cost us a million more and are 22, 30, 32, 25.

 

Which D are you going to take.

 

It's not even a competition. 

 

I agree build around the core of younger guys however we won't win a cup next year and paying Miller northwards of 8 million, maybe even 9 in his thirties on the back of a couple of years where he played over a PPG ?

 

Check his career stats they are not those of a consistently top scoring player in the NHL. 

Lot's of moving variables in your post here. 

I made my comments about QH vs VH and now it's about who has the best top 4?

 

I disagree with your opinion on our core. I believe if we don't load up and start our push in the next couple years then we might as well call it a wash anyway. We will be doing the everlasting rebuild. Bo and crew will have had enough of waiting, losing and playing perpetual rebuild. 

 

[Ilunga]

1 minute ago, bishopshodan said:

Lot's of moving variables in your post here. 

I made my comments about QH vs VH and now it's about who has the best top 4?

 

I disagree with your opinion on our core. I believe if we don't load up and start our push in the next couple years then we might as well call it a wash anyway. We will be doing the everlasting rebuild. Bo and crew will have had enough of waiting, losing and playing perpetual rebuild. 

 

I started off comparing both teams best d- man and expanded that to to who had the best defense full stop. 

Defense wins most contact team sports.  

 

With all respect can you expand on load up ?

 

What moves would you make this off season for starters ?

 

Who would you draft ?

 

Out of the players we have the potential to draft at 15 this year who do you think is the best fit and can contribute ASAP ?

 

[bishopshodan]

17 minutes ago, Ilunga said:

I started off comparing both teams best d- man and expanded that to to who had the best defense full stop. 

Defense wins most contact team sports.  

 

With all respect can you expand on load up ?

 

What moves would you make this off season for starters ?

 

Who would you draft ?

 

Out of the players we have the potential to draft at 15 this year who do you think is the best fit and can contribute ASAP ?

 

No.

 

You're making me work.

I said I like the core and QH is awesome. That kinda sums up my posts.

 

Load up means....keep the core, support them as much as possible in the next few years. There's a few players and options to shed some cap space but as a fanboy I will leave that to the massive and deep front office crew we now have. 

 

 

 

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, bishopshodan said:

No.

 

You're making me work.

I said I like the core and QH is awesome. That kinda sums up my posts.

 

Load up means....keep the core, support them as much as possible in the next few years. There's a few players and options to shed some cap space but as a fanboy I will leave that to the massive and deep front office crew we now have. 

 

 

 

I’d hope JR is open to trading QH, especially to Jersey.

Hughes for 2OA + Bahl + + + + +

Jersey would give us an incredible return to put the brothers together.  Insane return.  Lindros like return. 

[bishopshodan]

2 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I’d hope JR is open to trading QH, especially to Jersey.

Hughes for 2OA + Bahl + + + + +

Jersey would give us an incredible return to put the brothers together.  Insane return.  Lindros like return. 

QH is soo good. Like, soo F'ing good. 

Time will tell.

 

They send us today's Lindros. I'm in my furry bud.

[Ilunga]

1 minute ago, bishopshodan said:

No.

 

You're making me work.

I said I like the core and QH is awesome. That kinda sums up my posts.

 

Load up means....keep the core, support them as much as possible in the next few years. There's a few players and options to shed some cap space but as a fanboy I will leave that to the massive and deep front office crew we now have. 

 

 

 

I like our core as well however this current version of the Canucks will not win us a cup. 

We don't have the depth of talent pure and simple.

 

Check out capfriendly, see our cap space, who we have signed and for how long.

Think about our prospects and how they will develop/ play in the next few years.  

 

I put a lot of work into studying drafts, researching players for this draft, and players from the last 20 years worth of NHL drafts.  

 

Admittedly this is in regards from a fantasy team perspective however it gives one an insight into how to build a team and also how to spot talent. 

 

I love you brother however loving a team and stating I like our core will not win us a cup.

 

Drafting, Cap management and making the right moves will.

[bishopshodan]

1 minute ago, Ilunga said:

I like our core as well however this current version of the Canucks will not win us a cup. 

We don't have the depth of talent pure and simple.

 

Check out capfriendly, see our cap space, who we have signed and for how long.

Think about our prospects and how they will develop/ play in the next few years.  

 

I put a lot of work into studying drafts, researching players for this draft, and players from the last 20 years worth of NHL drafts.  

 

Admittedly this is in regards from a fantasy team perspective however it gives one an insight into how to build a team and also how to spot talent. 

 

I love you brother however loving a team and stating I like our core will not win us a cup.

 

Drafting, Cap management and making the right moves will.

You're the best

We just differ in our opinions. 

I don't just like this core. I believe in them. 

[Ilunga]

18 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I’d hope JR is open to trading QH, especially to Jersey.

Hughes for 2OA + Bahl + + + + +

Jersey would give us an incredible return to put the brothers together.  Insane return.  Lindros like return. 

When I took over the Detroit Red wings in the CDCGML this year I had quite a few GM's hassling me for Quinn.

 

I eventually traded him for Alex Turcotte, Cal Foote, Andrew Peeke and what has turned into this year's second pick in the draft. 

 

I know Turcotte's career has been derailed a bit by injuries however I still totally believe he will be a solid second line centre.

Cal Foote will be a top pairing defenseman, he  will score points, not as many as Quinn, however he will be a fair bit Cheaper. 

 

I believe Peeke will develop into at least a 30, maybe 40 point - man, he scored 15 points in his first year, this year at 22. 

 

I have yet to decide who I pick second.

 

I love Slafkovsky and I think he will probably play next year some time and if the devil's pick him with their second pick and he plays with Hughes ?

 

However I can also pick Cooley or Savoie. 

 

Both will be top line centres IMO. 

 

From a team building perspective do you believe Hughes or the players I have will contribute more to winning a Stanley Cup ?

[iceman64]

23 hours ago, hammertime said:

I wonder if Ferland had been healthy how far they could have gone in the bubble. 

I can't help but think of Ferland at 25 in the bubble with us, I can only imagine, how Green got them into overachieving mode would have seen the monster inside that guy, can't count the times he's taken over games and especially us when he pinned his ears back. That's the kind of players we need, skilled with killer instinct and able to finish of checks and shots into goals and make it look easy. I knew only injuries could stop him. How many times did I go (oh F!) Heads up boys!! And then do a head shake when he scored more often than not. Again, usually against us.  

Edited May 22, 2022 by iceman64

[spook007]

5 hours ago, Alflives said:

I’d hope JR is open to trading QH, especially to Jersey.

Hughes for 2OA + Bahl + + + + +

Jersey would give us an incredible return to put the brothers together.  Insane return.  Lindros like return. 

Tbh I think anything is possible just now. If the return is worth it all bets are off...

I may, may not send us into another rebuild (If Bo and Petey doesn't wanna hang around without QH), but it could be worth taking a chance on... 

OEL could take over QB the PP...

and maybe there would be room for Rathbone in the line up ( remains to be seen, if he would be good enough for that). 

 

JRs and Allvin biggest advantage are not having emotional attachments to the team like the rest of us have...and they want the team to become bigger and stronger...

 

I could easily see a trade well worth it for Canucks involving QH.