An Interesting View at the Value of Moving Up or Down in the Draft

[HKSR]

This is my attempt at providing a value to what the cost is to move up or down in the 1st round of the draft.

 

I gave values to picks 1 through the end of Round 7 as follows:

Picks 1 to 5 - 100

Picks 6 to 10 - 90

Picks 11 to 15 - 70

Picks 16 to 20 - 50

Picks 21 to 25 - 40

Picks 26 to 32 - 35

Picks 33 to 45 - 32

Picks 46 to 60 - 30

Picks 61 to 75 - 25

Picks 76 to 96 - 20

Picks 97 to 128 - 15

Picks 129 to 160 - 5

Picks 161 ... - 1

 

Then I look at how many spots a team drops back in the draft (ie. moves down). 

 

I then gave a cost (total value of draft picks given up) divided by spots dropped to get a Cost per Drop value.

 

I tried to use magnitude factor depending if the pick was in the top 5, top 10, etc., but it's all over the place.

 

Anyways, here is the data, and my conclusions below.  All trades of 1st round picks since 2004.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS:

1.  The cost of moving up or down is all over the place.  Which makes sense as every draft year is different.

2.  It appears that 1st round picks to move up or down don't happen as frequently as they did in the past. 

3.  The overall average cost of moving up in the 1st round of the draft is about 30.10 or somewhere in the neighbourhood of a 2nd round pick.  This was particularly interesting to me as I would have thought the bigger the jump, the more costly it would be... but it doesn't actually appear that way:

 

Examples:

NAS in 2021 dropped 13 spots and the cost was a 2nd round 51st OA pick vs

NYR in 2018 dropped 4 spots and the cost was a 2nd round 48th OA pick vs

OTT in 2011 dropped 11 spots and the cost was a 2nd round 48th OA pick vs

CLB in 2009 dropped 5 spots and the cost was a 2nd round 37th OA pick.

 

Anyways, interesting stuff. 

 

So if the Canucks want a 2nd round pick this year?  Simple.  Move down a couple spots lol.

 

And that is my contribution to CDC for this Friday lol.  Enjoy.

[Vinny in Vancouver]

Wow, thanks for doing this.

 

[AK_19]

In this particular draft year it appears the 2nd/3rd tier of playerss is around 6-15 in the rankings. Although a few spots might not seem like much, I believe it would be in this particular draft. 

[c00kies]

I think it's all about context in moving up and down.

For instance, a team who misses on a player/position (ex: RHD) they wanted is more likely to trade down, and similarly, a team who sees a player/position fall might make a move to get him. 

 

I think Picks 1 and 2 should be more valuable than the rest of the top 5, so putting them all in one category is a bit strange, though these picks are rarely traded anyway.

 

Overall, great stuff! 

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, c00kies said:

I think it's all about context in moving up and down.

For instance, a team who misses on a player/position (ex: RHD) they wanted is more likely to trade down, and similarly, a team who sees a player/position fall might make a move to get him. 

 

I think Picks 1 and 2 should be more valuable than the rest of the top 5, so putting them all in one category is a bit strange, though these picks are rarely traded anyway.

 

Overall, great stuff! 

Correct, actually Picks #1, 2, and 3 have never been moved in this fashion for at least the past 2 decades.

[Warhippy]

So, my suggestion of trading pick 15 to the Coyotes for their last 2 first round and 1st second round picks has actual merit because that's close to value as indicated by historical reference.  There may need to be a small addition but it's viable

[NUCKER67]

I look at other teams' lists of prospects and I get envious. LA in particular is in such good shape. ANA, DET, NYR, and NJ are building competitive teams too. The Canucks have practically nothing compared to some teams. I like the idea of trading the #15 down to acquire more picks (prospects). I'm sure there must be gems in the 30-40 range in the 2022 Draft.

 

Maybe VAN should also try to acquire high picks for 2023 in trades.

 

I'd be okay missing the 2023 playoffs, if it meant winning the Draft lottery (Bedard)

[Vinny in Vancouver]

21 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

I look at other teams' lists of prospects and I get envious. LA in particular is in such good shape. ANA, DET, NYR, and NJ are building competitive teams too. The Canucks have practically nothing compared to some teams. I like the idea of trading the #15 down to acquire more picks (prospects). I'm sure there must be gems in the 30-40 range in the 2022 Draft.

 

Maybe VAN should also try to acquire high picks for 2023 in trades.

 

I'd be okay missing the 2023 playoffs, if it meant winning the Draft lottery (Bedard)

This is just an idea (so please don't downvote), but if you really, really, really want Bedard, in addition to tanking, you could try trading players (or even future picks) for right-to-swap first rounders with whoever you think will be most likely to get Bedard. It rarely gets done in the NHL, but it has been done in the past. The nice thing for the other team is that they end up not losing an actual first rounder. So for example:

• trade our #15 for the right to swap with the Coyotes' own first round pick next year + a second round pick this year
• trade a future first round pick to the Kraken for the right to swap with the Kraken's own first round + their second round pick next year.
• trade Boeser to Buffalo for the right to swap first round with the Sabres' own pick + a prospect

Again, to make the other teams really interested, you'll almost need to tank this season by trading other players (e.g., JT and Bo's contracts are expiring at the end of the season) for future players (e.g., future first rounders).

[J.I.A.H.N]

Hi @HKSR

 

Great work on your chart, alot of hard work!

 

Here is a chart I found years ago................

 

 

 

Edited May 21, 2022 by J.I.A.H.N

[J.I.A.H.N]

This one is a little more recent..........

[VancouverHabitant]

On 5/20/2022 at 4:53 PM, NUCKER67 said:

I look at other teams' lists of prospects and I get envious. LA in particular is in such good shape. ANA, DET, NYR, and NJ are building competitive teams too. The Canucks have practically nothing compared to some teams. I like the idea of trading the #15 down to acquire more picks (prospects). I'm sure there must be gems in the 30-40 range in the 2022 Draft.

 

Maybe VAN should also try to acquire high picks for 2023 in trades.

 

I'd be okay missing the 2023 playoffs, if it meant winning the Draft lottery (Bedard)

LA's team was carried by it's veterans.  

 

Their high picks just haven't really lit the world on fire in the big leagues.  Alex Turcotte the 5th overall pick is doing just okay in the AHL. Byfield the 2nd overall pick is still so young so tough to make a call but he has a lot of improving to do to justify being the 2nd overall pick.  I'm not ready to proclaim much though about their prospects though until I see them making an impact in the NHL.  

Kempe (25) and Durzi (23) are the only impact young players that have panned out so far.  

 

Detroit and New Jersey's rebuilds are looking promising but they really need to start winning more next year.  It's easy to tank and comfort yourself with high picks, the hard part is making the playoffs and getting out of the basement.  

 

New York Rangers have the most promising young team for me.  Their defense is loaded with young impact players under 25.  

[qwijibo]

On 5/20/2022 at 5:31 PM, Vinny in Vancouver said:

This is just an idea (so please don't downvote), but if you really, really, really want Bedard, in addition to tanking, you could try trading players (or even future picks) for right-to-swap first rounders with whoever you think will be most likely to get Bedard. It rarely gets done in the NHL, but it has been done in the past. The nice thing for the other team is that they end up not losing an actual first rounder. So for example:

• trade our #15 for the right to swap with the Coyotes' own first round pick next year + a second round pick this year
• trade a future first round pick to the Kraken for the right to swap with the Kraken's own first round + their second round pick next year.
• trade Boeser to Buffalo for the right to swap first round with the Sabres' own pick + a prospect

Again, to make the other teams really interested, you'll almost need to tank this season by trading other players (e.g., JT and Bo's contracts are expiring at the end of the season) for future players (e.g., future first rounders).

Why would Arizona ever consider that? They’re pretty much guaranteed to be a bottom 3 team again next season 

[Vinny in Vancouver]

16 minutes ago, qwijibo said:

Why would Arizona ever consider that? They’re pretty much guaranteed to be a bottom 3 team again next season 

That's why I mentioned the need for the Canucks to tank. Otherwise, it's a loss for them. For example, Arizona may want to consider getting an extra second round pick with the Kraken in exchange for the right-to-swap.

[qwijibo]

1 minute ago, Vinny in Vancouver said:

That's why I mentioned the need for the Canucks to tank. Otherwise, it's a loss for them. For example, Arizona may want to consider getting an extra second round pick with the Kraken in exchange for the right-to-swap.

They already have 6 picks in the first 2 rounds this draft.  There’s no way they make a deal where they potentially lose a shot a Bedard next year for an extra 2nd 

[Vinny in Vancouver]

3 hours ago, qwijibo said:

They already have 6 picks in the first 2 rounds this draft.  There’s no way they make a deal where they potentially lose a shot a Bedard next year for an extra 2nd 

You're probably right on that. Again, in my post, I qualified it based on how much a team really, really, really wants Bedard. I've seen some draft prognosticators say that this may be a 2-horse race.