Discussion - Value of Bo Horvat

[Canuck Surfer]

6 hours ago, JamesB said:

I like Horvat a lot, as does everyone on CDC. I very much hope that he re-signs, preferably this summer. I would love to see him sign long term and remain with the Canucks for his entire career (with a Stanley Cup win in there somewhere). 

 

That said, I think the suggestions so far about his trade value are wildly overstated. As we have seen in the past, home town views about player value are normally overstated and this case in no exception.

 

If the Canucks trade Horvat this summer whoever gets him gets him for exactly one year before he becomes a UFA. Maybe that team re-signs him, maybe not. If they do re-sign him it will be a market value and will not provide a lot of value relative to the cap.

 

So, basically, we are asking what one year of Bo Horvat is worth. One year of Horvat is worth a lot less than one year of Miller. It does not matter that Miller is older because in either case the acquiring team gets only one year before UFA status is reached. 

 

Miller is worth a low first round pick, a mid-level roster player and a good prospect. (That is apparently what the Rangers offered for Miller at the deadline.)

 

There is no way Horvat would get the same return.  There is certainly no way NJ trades the #2 overall pick. On most teams Horvat is a good 2C (but not on the Devils, as pointed out by @mll).

 

Miller is worth the three "pieces" in trade.  Horvat is probably worth two pieces, so maybe a mid-to-low first round pick and a good (but not exceptional) prospect.. Or maybe a pick and a mid-level roster player. 

 

Also, I think Horvat is worth more to the Canucks than to most other teams, so he probably stays unless he is tired of losing and thinks it will be a while before JR turns things around. He might want to stay for next year and then become a UFA if the direction of the team does not look positive enough. 

Who dyu think was the prospect the Rag's apparently offered at deadline?

[mll]

2 hours ago, NucknAsia said:

fair points, but Hughes has been used alot on the wing, and given his size may be better suited there.

Don't think NJD agrees.  He moved to wing for a few games because he was coming back from shoulder injury. 

[wildcam]

10 hours ago, NucknAsia said:

We've seen alot of threads about moving Miller, Boeser etc, but not much has been said about Bo Horvat. First off, let me say I respect and appreciate what Bo brings to the Canucks. He is an incredibly focused, hard worker who never takes a night off, has consistently been a quiet leader for this team through his effort, work ethic and on and off ice performance. A true canuck.

That being said, with his contract up at the end of next year, his age will be 28 and a UFA (one and half years younger than Miller) and as such, is he possibly seen as higher value than Miller to other teams, while Miller is (in my view) higher value to us.

 

While I am sure some will say we can't trade our captain, really we must consider all alternatives. I do think Bo is more expendable than Miller if we have to move one, and yes the age difference does matter, that can potentially also bring back more in a trade. Teams would line up for him.

 

What are people's thoughts? What's his value? is he higher, lower, same as Miller? Does he get us the trade with NYR we wanted? Schneider, Lafrenierre, and a pick? Does he get us NJ second overall and a young DMan, plus?

 

Well lets start with the age? Miller is 2 yrs older March14 , 1993----Horvat April 5th,1995

Miller will demand 6 yrs X 8.5 million

Horvat will demand 6 yrs X 6.6 --7 million--

Miller will get the better return in a trade and we will have more cap space keeping Horvat over Miller..

We are like 2--3 years away from a good playoff run.. So trade Miller and get a very good trade package in return and we save cap dollars..

We don't want to be up against the cap signing a 30 year old for the 8.5 million dollar contract for 6-7 years..Big no

[JamesB]

4 hours ago, Canuck Surfer said:

Who dyu think was the prospect the Rag's apparently offered at deadline?

"On Friday, Satiar Shah of Sportsnet 650 reported that the New York Rangers had offered the Canucks defenceman Nils Lundkvist, center Filip Chytil, and a first round pick in exchange for Miller sometime before the Trade Deadline. The Canucks declined that offer."  (quoted from Canucks Army).

 

I have heard the rumor in other places as well. It might be wrong but a lot of people think it is either exactly right or at least is a close approximation.

 

So the prospect is Nils Lundkvist who is a good RHD. He was a low first round pick (#28 in 2018) and is now 21. He is a good prospect. The Canucks apparently  wanted Braden Schneider, who is an excellent young RHD (age 20, drafted #19 overall in 2020).

 

Chytil is also a lowish first round pick (#21 overall in 2017) and is a sold NHL-level 3C on a good cap hit for one more year and then is RFA. 

 

Lundvist, Chytil, and a low first round pick adds up to 3 low first round picks for Miller, all young, all cheap, And both Lundvist and Chytil are performing at about the expected value for their draft position. 

 

I think that was a pretty fair offer and I would have taken it although I can see why the Canucks turned it down given that there were making a serious run at making the playoffs and Miller was playing great. It would have looked bad to bail on the chance to make the playoffs unless the return was outstanding (as it would have been with Schneider instead of Lundkvist). The Canucks apparently believe that they can get as much this summer and there is some (small) chance they might be able to sign Miller to a team friendly contract instead. 

[Honourable Hughes]

On 5/25/2022 at 11:53 PM, JamesB said:

"On Friday, Satiar Shah of Sportsnet 650 reported that the New York Rangers had offered the Canucks defenceman Nils Lundkvist, center Filip Chytil, and a first round pick in exchange for Miller sometime before the Trade Deadline. The Canucks declined that offer."  (quoted from Canucks Army).

 

I have heard the rumor in other places as well. It might be wrong but a lot of people think it is either exactly right or at least is a close approximation.

 

So the prospect is Nils Lundkvist who is a good RHD. He was a low first round pick (#28 in 2018) and is now 21. He is a good prospect. The Canucks apparently  wanted Braden Schneider, who is an excellent young RHD (age 20, drafted #19 overall in 2020).

 

Chytil is also a lowish first round pick (#21 overall in 2017) and is a sold NHL-level 3C on a good cap hit for one more year and then is RFA. 

 

Lundvist, Chytil, and a low first round pick adds up to 3 low first round picks for Miller, all young, all cheap, And both Lundvist and Chytil are performing at about the expected value for their draft position. 

 

I think that was a pretty fair offer and I would have taken it although I can see why the Canucks turned it down given that there were making a serious run at making the playoffs and Miller was playing great. It would have looked bad to bail on the chance to make the playoffs unless the return was outstanding (as it would have been with Schneider instead of Lundkvist). The Canucks apparently believe that they can get as much this summer and there is some (small) chance they might be able to sign Miller to a team friendly contract instead. 

Wow I really like all 3 of those pieces. Hopefully we can get a similar return still during this offseason.