[Proposal] Balanced Offseason Moves

[fanfor42]

Dickinson won't cut it at 3C. 

You need to find a way to improve at that position or this is a problem. Centre depth is massively worse by losing Miler and not filling the 3C with anyone other than Dickinson. Look at his stats and eye test.

Not good enough period.

[Nucker 67]

If the Canucks can land Kuzmenko, that would be a real boost. Although, I'm not feeling too confident he signs in VAN. Maybe Karlsson has a really good camp? I hope Petey is working hard at the gym and not yachting with BFFs in some exotic location. Canucks also need some size up front, a player like Zacha or Chytil, would be good. Hoping for a bounce back year from Dickinson. They could use some nasty too, Zadorov and Kadri (If they trade Miller) would be great adds.  

[J.I.A.H.N]

6 hours ago, Shayster007 said:

It's really tough. I think he has a very high ceiling and could be a legit top 4 force in the NHL. His skating alone is a benefit to any NHL team. The problem is... Where does he fit with the Canucks. We already have the top 2 spots filled in the left with offense first D. Both Hughes and OEL have clearly rounded out their games this last year, but they are still offense first D men. Can a team really run 3 offense first D on the left side, and if so where does Rathbone slide in on special teams?

 

I'm hoping OEL can transition to the R side and play with Hughes or Rathbone long term as more of a anchor type player, but not sure if that's a square peg round hole situation. 

Yes, I agree.......

 

I would not have a problem going after  a Faber /Rathbone swap (If Faber was signed) or something along those lines

[eeeeergh]

10 hours ago, Provost said:

As everyone is starting to give their offseason plans… here is mine, a few moves that could let the new regime put their stamp on the team and let us not take a step back while helping the future.

 

1.  Trade Miller to Jersey

Miller, Myers, Pearson, 15th OA for 2nd OA, Zacha, Severson

 - we get an elite prospect with the pick who will be a cheap ELC contributor.  We drop some cap while also taking back useful pieces.  Jersey gets the impact player they want and a couple of veterans without much term left to help ease the load and support their great crop of young players .

2.  Sign Klingberg as a UFA

- he is friends with OEL, we have history with Swedish players and a front office staff in Allvin and the Sedins to help convince him.  https://www.bardown.com/oliver-ekman-larsson-pranked-john-klingberg-by-filling-his-hotel-room-with-1400-balloons-1.1305742

 

3.  Find a 4th line winger with grit.  Brendan Smith could be a target as he plays both D and wing so can provide a lot of versatility

 

4.   Sign Kuzmenko… free middle six player, no brainer if we can do it. 
 

5.  Bring Stecher back.  A feel good story for the room, he was wel loved by his team mates.  New regime doesn’t have bad history with him.  He will bring more value than the contract he would cost.

 

6.  Use Rathbone to dump cap and to add a pick.  Poolman needs to go, Dickenson seems like a candidate for a bounce back, but if you can move him you do it.

 

7.  Consider trading down in the draft to restock prospect cupboards.  Ideal fits for us at the top of the draft are Slafvosky, Nemec, or Jiricek.  If we have the #2 pick, we could move down a couple slots and add other high end picks/prospects and still end up with a guy we want.  Another team behind us could love one player and be willing to pay a premium to get them.  We could maybe even do this a couple of times until there are just two of those guys available

 

Podkolzin-Petterson-Boeser

Kuzmenko-Horvat-Garland

Zacha-Dickenson-Hoglander

Brendan Smith-Lammikko-Lockwood

Highmore

 

Hughes-Severson

OEL-Klingberg

Schenn-Stecher 

Dermott-Burroughs

 

We lose some high end talent in Miller for the short term, but gain in in the long term.  Our defence is completely revamped and much deeper.  That is 4 guys who would be on the top pairing on most teams and a super solid dependable 3rd pairing.  We know what Schenn brings, and Stecher is an excellent shot suppressor that has been a huge issue since we lost him, Tanev, and Edler who all led the team in that metric.

 

Jersey doesn't do the 1st deal imo. Miller + 15OA for 2OA is probably the deal that gets done, but the rest of it makes it very lopsided.

Its basically Myers and Pearson for Zacha and Severson, which would be a hard pass for them.

Also really don't like an OEL-Klingberg pairing. Klingberg is definitley a lot better than Myers, but plays a high danger style, which would leave OEL once again hanging back and covering, instead of using his skillset. Get a cheaper stay at home defenseman to play with OEL.

Also not a fan of dumping Rathbone - its pretty likely he's our future #2 LHD, and given his AHL development, its pretty likely hes going to deliver outsized value on his ELC for the next 3 years. 

Poolman doesn't have to go, he's likely to sit on LTIR. 

Dickinsons contract is pretty buyout friendly, in its worst year, we get smacked by about 900k against the cap if we buy him out.

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, eeeeergh said:

Jersey doesn't do the 1st deal imo. Miller + 15OA for 2OA is probably the deal that gets done, but the rest of it makes it very lopsided.

Its basically Myers and Pearson for Zacha and Severson, which would be a hard pass for them.

Also really don't like an OEL-Klingberg pairing. Klingberg is definitley a lot better than Myers, but plays a high danger style, which would leave OEL once again hanging back and covering, instead of using his skillset. Get a cheaper stay at home defenseman to play with OEL.

Also not a fan of dumping Rathbone - its pretty likely he's our future #2 LHD, and given his AHL development, its pretty likely hes going to deliver outsized value on his ELC for the next 3 years. 

Poolman doesn't have to go, he's likely to sit on LTIR. 

Dickinsons contract is pretty buyout friendly, in its worst year, we get smacked by about 900k against the cap if we buy him out.

Please let Jersey be so kind as to give us 2OA for Miller + 15OA.  

I see the Habs passing on Wright.  

[Provost]

39 minutes ago, fanfor42 said:

Dickinson won't cut it at 3C. 

You need to find a way to improve at that position or this is a problem. Centre depth is massively worse by losing Miler and not filling the 3C with anyone other than Dickinson. Look at his stats and eye test.

Not good enough period.

He has been excellent historically especially defensively, he wasn’t good this year.  He is a prime candidate to bounce back, then is year is a huge anomaly for him.  Either he just needed time to adjust or the systems don’t fit him, either way it doesn’t make sense to use assets to get rid of him yet.  He has the exact PK skillset we need 

 

Zacha is also a natural centre who gets used as both centre and on the wing just like Miller.  Zacha has an above 50% faceoff rate over the last couple seasons.  He would be completely fine as a 3C in case of injury or if Dickinson doesn’t bounce back.

 

 

[eeeeergh]

Watching this colorado series, we would be insane not to try for Manson. 

[Alflives]

9 minutes ago, Provost said:

He has been excellent historically especially defensively, he wasn’t good this year.  He is a prime candidate to bounce back, then is year is a huge anomaly for him.  Either he just needed time to adjust or the systems don’t fit him, either way it doesn’t make sense to use assets to get rid of him yet.  He has the exact PK skillset we need 

 

Zacha is also a natural centre who gets used as both centre and on the wing just like Miller.  Zacha has an above 50% faceoff rate over the last couple seasons.  He would be completely fine as a 3C in case of injury or if Dickinson doesn’t bounce back.

 

 

Maybe it will be Garland who goes for Zacha +?

[Nucker 67]

14 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I see the Habs passing on Wright.  

If Bergevan was still GM, I could see that  

[Provost]

3 hours ago, eeeeergh said:

Jersey doesn't do the 1st deal imo. Miller + 15OA for 2OA is probably the deal that gets done, but the rest of it makes it very lopsided.

Its basically Myers and Pearson for Zacha and Severson, which would be a hard pass for them.
 

I don't think Miller + 15OA is equivalent to the 2OA at all.  I think Miller is worth the 2OA just on his own based on historical valuations.

The history of some top ten picks being traded:

Cory Schneider for the 9OA - Schneider was a highly regarded young goalie but had never even been the starter when he was traded and had never played more than 33 game in a season.

Jordan Staal for 8OA plus Brandon Sutter and Brian Doumoulin - Staal had never scored more than 50 points or more than 25 goals in the six seasons of his career before getting traded.  Dumoulin was a high end NHL ready D prospect expected to be a lock in a top 4 (which he has been his entire career).  Sutter was just coming off a year where he got a bunch of Selke votes.  They weren't throw ins or cap dumps but were added ON TOP of an 8OA for a guy nowhere near Miller's calibre.

Jeff Carter for 8OA plus a 3rd rounder and Voracek - Carter was coming off 61 and 66 point seasons when he was traded.

Fedotenko for 4OA - the player had a career high if 36 points and was a well regarded young NHL player with upside

McCabe and a future year 1st for the 4OA pick - McCabe was a really good defenceman, it was 8 years after he was drafted and he wasn't anywhere near the top of the league in his position like Miller is.  It was a few years after the trade that he bloomed into the guy who was really high end.

Yashin for 2OA plus Bill Muckalt and Chara - This is the closets comparable trade.  Yashin had a career high of 94 points and was a steady guy who was close to a PPG average in the years before he was traded (less than Miller).  He was also a centre like Miller.  He got a return of not only a 2OA, he got Chara who wasn't the Chara we know now, but was already a top pairing 22 minute a night D at a really young age not even in his prime.  Note that was the return WITHOUT them sending out a 1st round pick the other way like my Miller proposal.  That would be like Miller for 2OA PLUS Severson.. and even then a young gigantic Chara just coming into his prime >> Severson so that wouldn't even be quite enough to be equivalent.

So, history tells us that even way inferior players than Miller garner top 10 picks in return, PLUS extra pieces, PLUS not having to send a 1st round pick the other way to balance it out more.

Top 10 picks don't get traded often... but top top scorers in the league don't get traded often either.



 

[eeeeergh]

10 minutes ago, Provost said:

I don't think Miller + 15OA is equivalent to the 2OA at all.  I think Miller is worth the 2OA just on his own based on historical valuations.

The history of some top ten picks being traded:

Cory Schneider for the 9OA - Schneider was a highly regarded young goalie but had never even been the starter when he was traded and had never played more than 33 game in a season.

Jordan Staal for 8OA plus Brandon Sutter and Brian Doumoulin - Staal had never scored more than 50 points or more than 25 goals in the six seasons of his career before getting traded.  Dumoulin was a high end NHL ready D prospect expected to be a lock in a top 4 (which he has been his entire career).  Sutter was just coming off a year where he got a bunch of Selke votes.  They weren't throw ins or cap dumps but were added ON TOP of an 8OA for a guy nowhere near Miller's calibre.

Jeff Carter for 8OA plus a 3rd rounder and Voracek - Carter was coming off 61 and 66 point seasons when he was traded.

Fedotenko for 4OA - the player had a career high if 36 points and was a well regarded young NHL player with upside

McCabe and a future year 1st for the 4OA pick - McCabe was a really good defenceman, it was 8 years after he was drafted and he wasn't anywhere near the top of the league in his position like Miller is.  It was a few years after the trade that he bloomed into the guy who was really high end.

Yashin for 2OA plus Bill Muckalt and Chara - This is the closets comparable trade.  Yashin had a career high of 94 points and was a steady guy who was close to a PPG average in the years before he was traded (less than Miller).  He was also a centre like Miller.  He got a return of not only a 2OA, he got Chara who wasn't the Chara we know now, but was already a top pairing 22 minute a night D at a really young age not even in his prime.  Note that was the return WITHOUT them sending out a 1st round pick the other way like my Miller proposal.  That would be like Miller for 2OA PLUS Severson.. and even then a young gigantic Chara just coming into his prime >> Severson so that wouldn't even be quite enough to be equivalent.

So, history tells us that even way inferior players than Miller garner top 10 picks in return, PLUS extra pieces, PLUS not having to send a 1st round pick the other way to balance it out more.

Top 10 picks don't get traded often... but top top scorers in the league don't get traded often either.



 

Top 3 picks are very different than everything below.

I understand the Yashin comparison, but a few things:
- that trade is widely considered to be one of the absolute worst trades in the history of the NHL (for the Islanders). It was highway robbery, and the consensus is he could have been had for much less.
- the other thing to remember is draft picks are valued completely different in the salary cap era than pre-salary cap. Back then, if your owner was rich enough, you could keep and accumulate as many star players as you wanted. Star players were simply not available very often, because there was no restriction on how many you could have or how much you could pay them. Miller isn't the only star player available at the moment, there are others (like Forsberg and Gaudreau in UFA). 

A top 2 pick could be Shane Wright. So the question is: Would NJ trade Shane Wright straight up for JT Miller?

Absolutely freaking not. Not in the salary cap era. They get 1 year of discounted Miller (at 5.25m) then would owe him a kings ransom, and a long contract into unproductive years. Versus, Shane Wright could be another Jack Hughes for them - delivering Miller-esque point production on the final year of an ELC, with his prime years still far ahead.

Maybe Miller + 15oa for 2oa gets it done. MAYBE. But they have to be really high on Miller and sure they have a contention window in 2-3 years to make that trade.

Tldr: star players are worth less in the salary cap era than they were before, and high draft picks are worth way more in the salary cap era, b/c of the outsized value you can get from a young player on an ELC, and on a potential bridge deal shortly after. 
 

[qwijibo]

29 minutes ago, Provost said:

I don't think Miller + 15OA is equivalent to the 2OA at all.  I think Miller is worth the 2OA just on his own based on historical valuations.

The history of some top ten picks being traded:

Cory Schneider for the 9OA - Schneider was a highly regarded young goalie but had never even been the starter when he was traded and had never played more than 33 game in a season.

Jordan Staal for 8OA plus Brandon Sutter and Brian Doumoulin - Staal had never scored more than 50 points or more than 25 goals in the six seasons of his career before getting traded.  Dumoulin was a high end NHL ready D prospect expected to be a lock in a top 4 (which he has been his entire career).  Sutter was just coming off a year where he got a bunch of Selke votes.  They weren't throw ins or cap dumps but were added ON TOP of an 8OA for a guy nowhere near Miller's calibre.

Jeff Carter for 8OA plus a 3rd rounder and Voracek - Carter was coming off 61 and 66 point seasons when he was traded.

Fedotenko for 4OA - the player had a career high if 36 points and was a well regarded young NHL player with upside

McCabe and a future year 1st for the 4OA pick - McCabe was a really good defenceman, it was 8 years after he was drafted and he wasn't anywhere near the top of the league in his position like Miller is.  It was a few years after the trade that he bloomed into the guy who was really high end.

Yashin for 2OA plus Bill Muckalt and Chara - This is the closets comparable trade.  Yashin had a career high of 94 points and was a steady guy who was close to a PPG average in the years before he was traded (less than Miller).  He was also a centre like Miller.  He got a return of not only a 2OA, he got Chara who wasn't the Chara we know now, but was already a top pairing 22 minute a night D at a really young age not even in his prime.  Note that was the return WITHOUT them sending out a 1st round pick the other way like my Miller proposal.  That would be like Miller for 2OA PLUS Severson.. and even then a young gigantic Chara just coming into his prime >> Severson so that wouldn't even be quite enough to be equivalent.

So, history tells us that even way inferior players than Miller garner top 10 picks in return, PLUS extra pieces, PLUS not having to send a 1st round pick the other way to balance it out more.

Top 10 picks don't get traded often... but top top scorers in the league don't get traded often either.



 

None of those trades that involved  top 5 picks happened in the salary cap era.  Top 5 pics are far more valuable to teams now. Trans used to be able to compensate for the loss of high picks by going out and spending as much as necessary in free agency.  
 

Also.  NJ has clearly indicated they’re only interested in moving the pick for a younger player thst can be with them for 10 years.  You’re offering a 29 year old pending free agent.  A 30 year old middle 6 forward and a 32 year old cap dump D  

[eeeeergh]

19 minutes ago, qwijibo said:

None of those trades that involved  top 5 picks happened in the salary cap era.  Top 5 pics are far more valuable to teams now. Trans used to be able to compensate for the loss of high picks by going out and spending as much as necessary in free agency.  
 

Also.  NJ has clearly indicated they’re only interested in moving the pick for a younger player thst can be with them for 10 years.  You’re offering a 29 year old pending free agent.  A 30 year old middle 6 forward and a 32 year old cap dump D  

Basically, exactly this.

If Miller's going to be traded, he's going to a team that plans on competing for the cup next year, and we retain some salary to juice up the returns even more. Basically its gotta be a team thats fine with selling the farm and bet it all on next year.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the Rangers circle back too.

To NYR:
Miller at 50% retained

To VAN:
- 2022 1st (contingent on NYR losing to Carolina - if they beat Carolina, they actually have to give this 1st to Winnipeg, and I guess they trade us their 2023 1st instead)
- Filip Chytil
- Nils Lundkvist
- Matthew Robertson
- Brennan Othmann

NYR gets a 100 point gamebreaker for 2.5m next year (lmfao) and we get a 1st, 3 fantastic prospects, and a 3C with upside (chytil). 

[Gollumpus]

14 hours ago, Provost said:

As everyone is starting to give their offseason plans… here is mine, a few moves that could let the new regime put their stamp on the team and let us not take a step back while helping the future.

 

1.  Trade Miller to Jersey

Miller, Myers, Pearson, 15th OA for 2nd OA, Zacha, Severson

 - we get an elite prospect with the pick who will be a cheap ELC contributor.  We drop some cap while also taking back useful pieces.  Jersey gets the impact player they want and a couple of veterans without much term left to help ease the load and support their great crop of young players .

I can see why the Canucks would want to seriously consider such a trade

- move Miller to ease a potential future cap issue, trade Myers and Pearson as cap dumps, and to free up TOI for the up and coming guys (assuming there are up and coming guys).

- the team gets younger and perhaps more skilled (Zacha, Severson)

- gain 13 spots in the draft

 

I don't see why New Jersey does this deal. It kind of reminds me of something that Sam Pollock would try to pull off...

 

Lots of people around here keep commenting that Miller should be traded for potential cap reasons, and/or that he is "too old" to mesh with the Canucks' young core. When those guys fully develop, Miller will be well past his prime (in their opinions). New Jersey's young core is even younger than the Canucks' young core, so why would they want to have that age difference limitation? 

 

The Devils have a number of RFAs (and some UFAs) which they will have to consider re-signing prior to picking up some big contracts like Miller (1 yr), Myers and Pearson (2 yrs each) for a total of $14.5 million. To my mind, the only one year of Miller would be the biggest hurdle here. Pearson and Myers might be nice to have, however, I don't see the Devils digging deep to trade for them. Were they to consider this offer, I suspect that there would be some retention involved.

 

People suggest that Miller may have just had a career year, and that he could regress to become a 70(ish) point guy, so why should the Canucks risk signing him for a big cap hit deal and for long term? And isn't that something which New Jersey might consider in negotiations in order to reduce their outlay of assets? Maybe they could just sign a UFA (this year or next), and keep their current assets.

 

If Miller does regress, and the Devils don't want to re-sign him, what might they be able to get for Miller in 2023? The 2ndOA? Perhaps not.

 

Losing 13 spots in the draft order doesn't seem like a desirable throw-in to this deal. Why trade for Miller when you could pick up a young center who will be closer in age to your young core? 

 

                                               regards,  G.

[Hairy Kneel]

15 hours ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

Yeah my sentiments exactly............just no way I want Rathbone traded

I'd rather have Rathbone backing up Huggy than OEL. 

[Hairy Kneel]

3 hours ago, qwijibo said:

None of those trades that involved  top 5 picks happened in the salary cap era.  Top 5 pics are far more valuable to teams now. Trans used to be able to compensate for the loss of high picks by going out and spending as much as necessary in free agency.  
 

Also.  NJ has clearly indicated they’re only interested in moving the pick for a younger player thst can be with them for 10 years.  You’re offering a 29 year old pending free agent.  A 30 year old middle 6 forward and a 32 year old cap dump D  

I generally agree with this. The only way they take this trade if they are in the win now mode.

[qwijibo]

1 hour ago, Hairy Kneel said:

I generally agree with this. The only way they take this trade if they are in the win now mode.

For sure.  A team that’s taking a run at the cup will trade away high end futures if it’ll give them a better chance at winning it all.  But generally those teams don’t have top 5 picks in the draft.  

[Hairy Kneel]

2 hours ago, qwijibo said:

For sure.  A team that’s taking a run at the cup will trade away high end futures if it’ll give them a better chance at winning it all.  But generally those teams don’t have top 5 picks in the draft.  

Hopefully no one in our division. I wouldn't want to face Miller in Beast Mode in the playoffs. 

[eeeeergh]

5 hours ago, qwijibo said:

For sure.  A team that’s taking a run at the cup will trade away high end futures if it’ll give them a better chance at winning it all.  But generally those teams don’t have top 5 picks in the draft.  

some have incredibly deep prospect pools though
i like NYR as a target
we retain half the salary
they give us 3x top tier prospects and their late 1st rounder 
 

[Provost]

6 hours ago, Hairy Kneel said:

I generally agree with this. The only way they take this trade if they are in the win now mode.

People need to start thinking about “win now” more differently under the cap era.

 

Young RFA players coming out of their ELC are now getting full market value contracts just like they were UFAs.  That never used to be the case at all, the economies of the game have changed.

 

What that has done is given a big push to “win now” when you have high end players on their ELCs when you are getting the most out of their contract efficiencies with the most surplus value.

 

We had a window to compete with Hughes and Petterson only taking up $2 million in cap combined and performing at $10-15 million above that.  We squandered that by being anchored with expensive inefficient contracts.  Now we are paying full freight for those players and have no cap space to improve the team around them.

 

Jersey has put themselves into a position with an excellent young core, and incredible pipeline of prospects ready to keep giving them efficient ELCs in the lineup for the next 5 years or so…. And they have no cap issues at all with expensive legacy contacts like Subban now off the books.

 

It is win now time for Jersey where they should be adding immediate impact players and even giving away futures. A trade like this makes sense for them and makes them much better now.  The term on guys like Pearson and Myers is perfect as it isn’t long and they expire as the Devils have prospects that should be graduating to fill those spots for cheap.  The money freed up can be used to pay the raises for their players coming off their ELCs.  Jersey is where we want to be and what JR is talking about being a continual playoffs team.  They have a super bright future.

 

They have over $25 million in cap space for 6-8 roster spots.  Miller makes a TON of sense for them.  Myers and Pearson aren’t cap dumps now that they don’t have as much term left.  Pearson is probably worth a 3rd round pick and Myers is probably neutral value.  He would cost what he is earning on the open market.

 

It doesn’t make sense for us to re-sign Miller because we are in a different position.  We don’t have any pipeline of players coming in and we have a cap crunch with expensive players on the books.  We are having to decide which players to let go just to keep us under the cap as raised come due… and that isn’t even trying to make the team better, just trying to tread water as a non playoff team fighting to occasionally get into a wildcard spot.

 

 

Edited May 28, 2022 by Provost