How far are we from being a playoff contender?

[Guest]

On 6/5/2022 at 10:11 AM, guntrix said:

As proven in these playoffs, actual contenders do not have albatross anchor contracts. That's essentially what separates contenders from pretenders in a cap world. 

 

IMO, Canucks' first order of business should be finding out how to ship out OEL without retaining salary. 

What? 

 

Colorado has Johnson's expiring 7 year 6 million dollar contract. 

 

Tampa has McDonaugh making over 6 mil/year. 

 

Darnell Nurse's 9.25 mil deal is about to kick in. 

 

OEL should be making 10 mil/year if you compare his play to the other three. 

[CanucksJay]

Watching oilers rollover Calgary and then getting steamrolled by Avs makes me take off my Homer glasses and see that to be a contender, we have quite a ways to go. 

We need to be better in pretty much every area (speed skill size) 

The only really contender ready position is goalie (demko). 

We need upgrades everywhere else. 

[guntrix]

6 hours ago, VancouverHabitant said:

What? 

 

Colorado has Johnson's expiring 7 year 6 million dollar contract. 

 

Tampa has McDonaugh making over 6 mil/year. 

 

Darnell Nurse's 9.25 mil deal is about to kick in. 

 

OEL should be making 10 mil/year if you compare his play to the other three. 

Erik Johnson has been very good tbf. And I think Nurse is definitely not the best example to use, seeing as he almost single-handedly cost the Oilers the first 3 games of the Avs series. 

 

Haven't seen enough of Tampa to judge McDonaugh. 

[aGENT]

3 minutes ago, guntrix said:

Erik Johnson has been very good tbf. And I think Nurse is definitely not the best example to use, seeing as he almost single-handedly cost the Oilers the first 3 games of the Avs series. 

 

Haven't seen enough of Tampa to judge McDonaugh. 

OEL is right up there with Hughes as our best D. He's not a problem that needs fixing.

[iinatcc]

10 hours ago, VancouverHabitant said:

What? 

 

Colorado has Johnson's expiring 7 year 6 million dollar contract. 

 

Tampa has McDonaugh making over 6 mil/year. 

 

Darnell Nurse's 9.25 mil deal is about to kick in. 

 

OEL should be making 10 mil/year if you compare his play to the other three. 

Well no

 

Johnson's and McDonaugh's numbers are similar to that of OEL and have a slightly lower cap hit.

Johnson's contract expires soon, McDonaugh's might not age well but Tampa's good cap management has lead to that not being a factor for the time being.

 

Nurse's contract is on the high side. But apparently he has been playing hurt this series so there's that. Plus let's admit it to our homer selves (that's for most of us). If Nurse was a Canuck and OEL was an Oiler. We would be saying Nurse is young and will improve and would laugh at the Oilers if they had the OEL contract.

 

For OEL he's fine for now but the term is what has people worrying in addition to the draft picks Vancouver gave to acquire him.  

[DownUndaCanuck]

16 hours ago, Boudrias said:

If the bolded was true then why the regular fire drills in the d-zone for most of the year? Yes, better under Boudreau. My vision for the d-core is a 1RD to compliment Hughes and a better offensive 2RD. 

I agree, we looked sloppy at times, but all teams do. I've seen Colorado play games where they look like a mess defensively. No need to mention how bad Edmonton has looked defensively at times. I'd forget all the games that happened under Green, and under Bruce we were defensively a top-10 team in the league. OEL and Myers defensive statistics were great under Bruce alone, so I'd be happy to go into next year with them as a solid shutdown pair - obviously 13+M is not ideal and they're not exactly what you want going forward, but it'd cost too much to change so I'd just leave them for now and like you said, focus on that elusive top defensive 1RD which will elevate our defence to another level.

[IBatch]

Pretty simple.   The teams best chance of being a contender is a re-set.   That means rebuilding around QHs, EP aged guys ... and includes drafting a goalie that can take the reigns from Demko. 

 

Sad but true.   We need Allvin to pull a Butcher like trade around Miller.   If we could get a Ronning, Courtnall and Momesso out of that we'd be in great shape.    Two good top six players, and a great 3rd line gritty tough mofo.    And we also need to do a Nedved like trade to fix our defense ... Hedican/Brown Lafayette ...  Add in a second for a Lumme and we'd be ready to rock as soon as this season lol.   One could wish anyways.  

 

I'd be perfectly ok with the team only getting tweaks along the edges just to see how things go until the TDL.   But won't be surprised if Miller doesn't make it past the draft either.    We need to plug the holes from the last two drafts and he's the easiest way to do it.    For example - Leafs media said that Miller was worth their two best prospects (a former 15th overall from Kapanen, and a second rounder that's got promise plus Kerfoot who is under contract next season at 3.5ish) ... having guys coming up that can take a spot on their ELCs is important to our cap structure.   

Reality is - as the league expands our final appearances grow further apart.   Starting with only Horvat in the stables and nobody willing to waive other then Kesler ... was a lot like an expansion team under the old rules.   Hutton and Horvat and Markstrom lol.   Most expansion teams got a lot more then that in their pool first year .... under the old rules.    So we are looking at maybe at the end of this decade ... there is always a chance something special can happen once in the playoffs - feel that's their best bet for now.    But doing what Sakic did might be the wisest choice.  2023 draft - Kennedy from THN said will be the best since McDavids.   A tank this year might be a good idea. 

Edited June 7, 2022 by IBatch

[IBatch]

9 hours ago, CanucksJay said:

Watching oilers rollover Calgary and then getting steamrolled by Avs makes me take off my Homer glasses and see that to be a contender, we have quite a ways to go. 

We need to be better in pretty much every area (speed skill size) 

The only really contender ready position is goalie (demko). 

We need upgrades everywhere else. 

Miller and Horvat are just fine too - most teams including actually contenders, would love to have them the last couple years.   Problem is their age only gives us one more crack at it before they get their UFA deals that will almost certainly wipe out the value added to our cap.   

 

Personally feel that Allvin needs to weigh what one year in the playoffs, that is next season - vs a mini-tank.   With Bruce back i'm pretty sure they aren't going to do anything too drastic yet.    Unless we are wiping the floor next season in our own division, and have a nice lead and are not fighting for our playoff lives to keep it or claw our way in,  it's almost a certainty that there will be moves coming.    They want more cap space, and to lower the high quality shots Demko faces.    That's not going to happen without roster change.   Yes we will still see core ascension.   We almost did the impossible down the stretch .... that sample size isn't big enough to say "we have the number one PP in the league now" or "are a top ten defensive team" which did start happening.    EP on the entire season would do wonders ... but we aren't deep enough to lose 2-3 key guys and still make the show.   That's a contender.   Even Vegas who went into last year as a contender and a favourite in the West .... couldn't survive just that (2-3 key guys out, one at any given time)....

 

Edit; If there ever was a time to tank next season might be it.   2023 is supposed to be a boffo draft... I'd be fine with either or really, but we won't be signing and keeping all 3 of Brock, Miller and Horvat - one is going for sure. 

Edited June 7, 2022 by IBatch

[IBatch]

On 6/5/2022 at 4:41 PM, hammertime said:

I feel like the play is to be patient and draft our own. Moving Miller in a package to NJ for 2OA or Philly for 5OA doubt Nemec/Jiricek will be there by Ott 7OA if we could walk away from this draft with.

 

Nemec/Jiricek

15OA Lian Bichsel

 

Teams may have to eventually take us seriously.

 

If we move Miller we will have to get Horvat some help in the dot. Preferably a defensive C pk specialist. We need Horvat to make this his team to do so he needs more offensive opportunity. 

 

We also need a defensive LD. So ya were back in the Benning ages of overpaying bottom 6ers. But our top 6 is weak af without Miller they will need to be propped up with grinders. 

 

 

 

 

I wonder if Edler would come back now that JB is gone.    Not signing him and instead Hamonic proved to be very costly.   Edler on a one year deal or even two, would solidify our bottom pairing AND help our net presence plus PK.   I don't see a spot for Rathbone ... unless QHs moves to the right side.   Seems redundant, won't get PP time on the left side anyways... not behind QHs and OEL...should be a little concern that he could pull a Fox though ... small PMD are all the rage right now.    2 million for Edler tops....

Edited June 7, 2022 by IBatch

[IBatch]

On 6/5/2022 at 10:59 AM, Alflives said:

We are too slow.  Need to move Miller, and Garland for picks/prospects.  Take a step back so we can leap ahead to a place we are better than at present.  

Not happening though.  Guys we trade will be returning 23-27 year old fully developed players and later round picks.  

Get Miller but why Garland?   We'd be lucky to get ---- a Garland back.   Sure there are some scenarios that make sense for that ... but of the 3 Brock, Podz, Garland ... i'd say Brock is the one that costs us more then he adds to the team unfortunately, and it's likely going to be worse next season with his cap hit going up.    At that pay scale he should be 30-35 goal scorer 70plus point range and not a liability defensively.   Garland led our team 5 x 5 with Miller, plus minus - and also drew a ton of penalties.    He's got value added for his cap hit ... produces more for his pay and we have cost certainty.     Miller and Brock are the guys they will be looking to trade.   Miller for the return, Brock for the cap space. 

[Alflives]

16 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Get Miller but why Garland?   We'd be lucky to get ---- a Garland back.   Sure there are some scenarios that make sense for that ... but of the 3 Brock, Podz, Garland ... i'd say Brock is the one that costs us more then he adds to the team unfortunately, and it's likely going to be worse next season with his cap hit going up.    At that pay scale he should be 30-35 goal scorer 70plus point range and not a liability defensively.   Garland led our team 5 x 5 with Miller, plus minus - and also drew a ton of penalties.    He's got value added for his cap hit ... produces more for his pay and we have cost certainty.     Miller and Brock are the guys they will be looking to trade.   Miller for the return, Brock for the cap space. 

Brock will get either qualified (can’t let him walk for nothing) or extended a new contract.

Imhao we need to rebuild.  

That’s not happening though, so we will change guys around.  Switch out some, like Garland (who has good value) for a different type of player.  Miller too will go, and return a different type of player.  

JR has stated several times now there’s no step back.  

[-DLC-]

21 hours ago, DS4quality said:

Honestly being a contender changes yearly. 

Did anyone think Dallas was a contender 2 years ago?

Was Montréal a contender last year? 

Colorado is just starting to pull it together and they're "always" a contender that is on the way to their first finals in 20 years.  There's a myth that you have to be built a certain way to be a cup contender. But it really all comes down to who is firing on all cylinders when it matters most.

If you aren't in the finals you're not a true contender.

This. And goaltending's a HUGE factor and Demko's got that covered. If he gets hurt then we're in trouble.

[Mustard Tiger]

3 minutes ago, -DLC- said:

This. And goaltending's a HUGE factor and Demko's got that covered. If he gets hurt then we're in trouble.

18 other guys on the ice as well, if they can't help out 1 single guy we don't deserve to be even talking about contender anything 

[D-Money]

The top-6 forwards and goaltending are very good. But a Miller trade will take it down a notch.
 

The main problem is the right side of the defence. But that is tough to fix with a tight cap and no RD coming in the system.

[Alflives]

9 minutes ago, -DLC- said:

This. And goaltending's a HUGE factor and Demko's got that covered. If he gets hurt then we're in trouble.

When JR first arrived he said he wants to build us into a consistent contender.  We are still quite a ways away from that level.  That’s why he’s very likely to trade Miller for guys 23-27 who will be playing at their top level while we still have Demko and Petey and Hughes are in the heart of their best hockey.  

[-DLC-]

Just now, Alflives said:

When JR first arrived he said he wants to build us into a consistent contender.  We are still quite a ways away from that level.  That’s why he’s very likely to trade Miller for guys 23-27 who will be playing at their top level while we still have Demko and Petey and Hughes are in the heart of their best hockey.  

You can't just assume guys "will be playing at their top level" due to age. Or that they won't.

 

The team that gets hot, gets calls, gets goaltending, stays healthy and out of the box. On paper isn't always the surefire recipe for success, Alf.

 

Everyone wants a consistent contender lol.

 

 

[Chris12345]

21 hours ago, DS4quality said:

Honestly being a contender changes yearly. 

Did anyone think Dallas was a contender 2 years ago?

Was Montréal a contender last year? 

Colorado is just starting to pull it together and they're "always" a contender that is on the way to their first finals in 20 years.  There's a myth that you have to be built a certain way to be a cup contender. But it really all comes down to who is firing on all cylinders when it matters most.

If you aren't in the finals you're not a true contender.

Montreal wasn't a contender they were a pretender playing in a garbage division. They were 18th overall.

[IBatch]

12 minutes ago, D-Money said:

The top-6 forwards and goaltending are very good. But a Miller trade will take it down a notch.
 

The main problem is the right side of the defence. But that is tough to fix with a tight cap and no RD coming in the system.

This is true but i'm not as horny as trying to get the magical unicorn RHD as some are.    Schenn.   Massive value and he's back next season.   Myers gets kicked around on the CDC like Edler used too, until he got older and people stopped picking on him at least most did.     If the team really wants too, they can do what they did with EP which was put him in the center role (to a degree) and move QHs to the right side.     And bring Rathbone up.   There are 50% more natural LHD's in the league then RHDs ... a lot of guys like Benn who play both sides.   Every team has the same challenges, it's also why i wanted Bouchard then last draft Clarke.   Its really late in the game to draft a RHD and expect that to work out during Millers prime ... but not EPs/QHs so expect some of that.   Even KB was kicked around a lot until he wasn't anymore on this site.    Reality is our window right now is just playoffs.    And the other reality that i'm sure a lot don't want to hear,  we've got massive challenges been a top taxed team (we were 7th LEAST taxed during peak Sedin era) in this market.   We got spoiled from 2000-2014 .:. we've only had a couple teams that ever made contender status and really just one real contender (although having a Linden basically was an automatic by to the second round).....

 

 

Teams got to work on a lot of things to make us a contender - and that's going to start and end with who comes up behind EP for now at least.   I'd be happy to see what happens this season making the playoffs with the same team ... but don't expect it to be the same or consider it automatic either.    Truly think the league needs to consider bringing back the play-ins - and reducing the 82 game schedule down to 80.   Fans win.   Players win.   Owners win. 

[ShawnAntoski]

14 minutes ago, Chris12345 said:

Montreal wasn't a contender they were a pretender playing in a garbage division. They were 18th overall.

The team Gorton built is in the ECF and he has done a lot to improve the Habs rebuild, by the trading of veteran players for picks

[johngould21]

2 hours ago, IBatch said:

Pretty simple.   The teams best chance of being a contender is a re-set.   That means rebuilding around QHs, EP aged guys ... and includes drafting a goalie that can take the reigns from Demko. 

 

Sad but true.   We need Allvin to pull a Butcher like trade around Miller.   If we could get a Ronning, Courtnall and Momesso out of that we'd be in great shape.    Two good top six players, and a great 3rd line gritty tough mofo.    And we also need to do a Nedved like trade to fix our defense ... Hedican/Brown Lafayette ...  Add in a second for a Lumme and we'd be ready to rock as soon as this season lol.   One could wish anyways.  

 

I'd be perfectly ok with the team only getting tweaks along the edges just to see how things go until the TDL.   But won't be surprised if Miller doesn't make it past the draft either.    We need to plug the holes from the last two drafts and he's the easiest way to do it.    For example - Leafs media said that Miller was worth their two best prospects (a former 15th overall from Kapanen, and a second rounder that's got promise plus Kerfoot who is under contract next season at 3.5ish) ... having guys coming up that can take a spot on their ELCs is important to our cap structure.   

Reality is - as the league expands our final appearances grow further apart.   Starting with only Horvat in the stables and nobody willing to waive other then Kesler ... was a lot like an expansion team under the old rules.   Hutton and Horvat and Markstrom lol.   Most expansion teams got a lot more then that in their pool first year .... under the old rules.    So we are looking at maybe at the end of this decade ... there is always a chance something special can happen once in the playoffs - feel that's their best bet for now.    But doing what Sakic did might be the wisest choice.  2023 draft - Kennedy from THN said will be the best since McDavids.   A tank this year might be a good idea. 

This team isn't tanking anytime soon. They were that close to the playoffs, after playing in their sleep for the first 25 games. In the last two months of the season, the Canucks were better than Dallas and LA, but the games ran out. Goaltending is excellent, the defense is better than that Coiler team currently is, and the forward group was playing much better offense under Boudreau. In fact the team was playing with playing with structure required to win when needed.

IMO, Boeser was playing with a very heavy heart all season as his father lost the biggest battle of his life. He'll be back! In the 3 years Miller has been a Canuck he is at a point a game pace average. Garland, has a very cap friendly salary, and at 5 vs 5 is as Tanner Pearson is, very good. The Canuck brass will find ways to keep all of them. As for the defense, under Boudreau as well, they played much better, and if I'm not mistaken the group were all on the plus side. Myers, Hughes, OEL, and Schenn all had bounce back seasons under a structured defense. It's getting the most out of the bottom 6 forward group, and the last 3 defense on the roster, that will make a huge difference next season.

So let's just wait until the draft and free agency to see what happens with the group. Unless a knock your socks off deal is offered, I don't see much movement on this roster. If it were that bad when JR and Boudreau took over, changes would have been made back then, but this group played well over .650 hockey in the last two thirds of the season.