timberz21 Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, mordekai said: Overpayment for 2nd overall. Kakko was suppose to be the next superstar winger at 2nd and looked how that turned out. these 18yr kids aren’t guaranteed unless they are named matthews or mcdavid Looks at the history, outside 2012, there is at least 3/5 studs in the top 5 pretty much every year. That's 60% rate for top 5 selection. Are there bust, of course, this isn't exact science. If I could get 60% success rate with my 2nd overall, I'd take that bet any day. Whether its the 2nd overall or a 20 years old former 1st rounder, you'll never get a Matthews or McDavid in return for Miller. That's as good as it's going to get. Anyway, it's all moot because NJD probably won't even consider it. 2010 Taylor Hall Tyler Seguin Erik Gudbrandson Ryan Johansen Nino Neiderreiter 2011 RNH Landeskog Huberdeau Larsson Strome 2012 Yakupov Murray Galchenyuk G.Reinhart Rielly 2013 Mackinnon Barkov Drouin Jones Lindholm 2014 Ekblad Reinhart Draisaitl Bennett Dal Colle 2015 McDavid Eichel Strome Marner Hanifin 2016 Matthews Laine Dubois Puljujarvi Juolevi 2017 Hischier Patrick Heiskanen Makar Pettersson 2018 Dahlin Svechnikov Kotkaniemi Tkachuk Hayton Edited June 21, 2022 by timberz21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 2 hours ago, mordekai said: Overpayment for 2nd overall. Kakko was suppose to be the next superstar winger at 2nd and looked how that turned out. these 18yr kids aren’t guaranteed unless they are named matthews or mcdavid It's not an overpayment even for Kakko if it's only one year of Miller ... we need to start thinking like that. Or at least be prepared for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, IBatch said: It's not an overpayment even for Kakko if it's only one year of Miller ... we need to start thinking like that. Or at least be prepared for it. IF we can get Kakko + Kravstov + a second from from the Rags for Miller i think that's fair value. But would it be better to just go for a one for one deal and get the best possible single asset in return? Would 5OA be better than those two players and the Rags' second? I'm thinking less in return volume and more in value would be better, because then we could get an elite (potentially) piece to add to our key core rather than several support pieces. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mordekai Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 1 hour ago, timberz21 said: Looks at the history, outside 2012, there is at least 3/5 studs in the top 5 pretty much every year. That's 60% rate for top 5 selection. Are there bust, of course, this isn't exact science. If I could get 60% success rate with my 2nd overall, I'd take that bet any day. Whether its the 2nd overall or a 20 years old former 1st rounder, you'll never get a Matthews or McDavid in return for Miller. That's as good as it's going to get. Anyway, it's all moot because NJD probably won't even consider it. 2010 Taylor Hall Tyler Seguin Erik Gudbrandson Ryan Johansen Nino Neiderreiter 2011 RNH Landeskog Huberdeau Larsson Strome 2012 Yakupov Murray Galchenyuk G.Reinhart Rielly 2013 Mackinnon Barkov Drouin Jones Lindholm 2014 Ekblad Reinhart Draisaitl Bennett Dal Colle 2015 McDavid Eichel Strome Marner Hanifin 2016 Matthews Laine Dubois Puljujarvi Juolevi 2017 Hischier Patrick Heiskanen Makar Pettersson 2018 Dahlin Svechnikov Kotkaniemi Tkachuk Hayton You are making the arguments for me lol You are giving up JT hoglander and 2nd rounder for 60% chance of a stud? No thanks There are great players everywhere even at number 5 overall like flyers pick JT is worth a mid first round, prospect and a young player. I take that any day over a 60% chance of a stud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 1 minute ago, mordekai said: You are making the arguments for me lol You are giving up JT hoglander and 2nd rounder for 60% chance of a stud? No thanks There are great players everywhere even at number 5 overall like flyers pick JT is worth a mid first round, prospect and a young player. I take that any day over a 60% chance of a stud That and several of the "studs" suggested in that post are more duds and aren't exactly core pieces to winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timberz21 Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, mordekai said: You are making the arguments for me lol You are giving up JT hoglander and 2nd rounder for 60% chance of a stud? No thanks There are great players everywhere even at number 5 overall like flyers pick JT is worth a mid first round, prospect and a young player. I take that any day over a 60% chance of a stud Since when does quantity > quality ? That mid 1st rounder odds are probably below 30% of getting something better than a role player. It’s well documented that a 2nd rounder has < 10% or playing 100 games or something Nobody is going to trade you a guaranteed potential 1st liner with that prospect or young player. I think you need to reevaluate your risk analysis algorithm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timberz21 Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Alflives said: That and several of the "studs" suggested in that post are more duds and aren't exactly core pieces to winning. Jeez what’s your definition of a stud? crosby mcDavid and Matthews only? Edited June 21, 2022 by timberz21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucker 67 Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 Thinking, any trade regarding Miller needs to bring back a young RD to play with Hughes. (RD) Lundkvist, (C) Chytil, 2nd (2022) and a 2nd (2023) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mordekai Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, timberz21 said: Since when does quantity > quality ? That mid 1st rounder odds are probably below 30% of getting something better than a role player. It’s well documented that a 2nd rounder has < 10% or playing 100 games or something Nobody is going to trade you a guaranteed potential 1st liner with that prospect or young player. I think you need to reevaluate your risk analysis algorithm When those quantity are also quality. Is not like we are talking about a bunch of 3rd or 4th rounders for 1 pick We are talking about a few former first rounders like Schneider, Chytil and a 2nd rounder so you need to reevaluate your risk assessment. I take that chance any day over a YAKUPOV or MURRAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timberz21 Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, mordekai said: When those quantity are also quality. Is not like we are talking about a bunch of 3rd or 4th rounders for 1 pick We are talking about a few former first rounders like Schneider, Chytil and a 2nd rounder so you need to reevaluate your risk assessment. I take that chance any day over a YAKUPOV or MURRAY Lol of course your are going to quote the worst case scenario. would you take them over Petey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mordekai Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 Just now, timberz21 said: Lol of course your are going to quote the worst case scenario. would you take them over Petey? Of course i would take Pettersson. Thats why i said is better to trade for the 5th overall pick than the second overall cause as you guys said 2nd overall is going to cost 3 assets and a 5th overall won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timberz21 Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, mordekai said: Of course i would take Pettersson. Thats why i said is better to trade for the 5th overall pick than the second overall cause as you guys said 2nd overall is going to cost 3 assets and a 5th overall won't And how do you know that? NJ might be willing to deal but if Philly isn’t the price will be high anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mordekai Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 Just now, timberz21 said: And how do you know that? NJ might be willing to deal but if Philly isn’t the price will be high anyways. Geez man, go follow some hockey podcasts or listen to some talk radio. Its been rumored by many flyers are not in a rebuilding mode. They hired Torts for crying out loud. They might or might not trade their 5th overall pick. I don't known I dont' care. I just know is not smart to dump JT, hog (after a poor season) and a 2nd round for one pick who might or might not turn out to be anything. Canucks need like 3-4 more players not get rid of more players. We already have elite players in Petey and Quinn. We need to make the rest of the team more well rounded like Avs and Lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted June 21, 2022 Author Share Posted June 21, 2022 21 minutes ago, mordekai said: Of course i would take Pettersson. Thats why i said is better to trade for the 5th overall pick than the second overall cause as you guys said 2nd overall is going to cost 3 assets and a 5th overall won't You don't know a 5th OA won't cost a ton either. You basically have Wright, Slafkovsky, Cooley, Jiricek, and Nemec in the Top 5. All of them could turn out to be stud players. None of the Top 5 draft picks will be moved without costing more than just JT Miller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTramFan Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 Overall I like your original proposal. But I don't think Lyubushkin is a good target. I certainly wouldn't pay him anywhere near $4m AAV. He and OEL have shown in a large sample size, just 1 season ago, that they are not a good pairing. OEL + Lyu at even strength in 2020/21: GA/60 = 2.95, GF/60 = 1.27 OEL + Myers at even strength in 2021/22: GA/60 = 2.27, GF/60 = 2.39 Instead of Lyu, I would look at trading Boeser for Matt Roy (LAK) and signing Nichushkin at $6m to replace Boeser. Buy out Dickinson. This gives about $7m in cap space so I would also look to add some veteran presence and versatility in the bottom 6 such as Jarnkrok ($2.2m) and Motte ($2m) Slightly tweaked roster from your original: Slafkovsky-Petey-Podkolzin Kuzmenko-Bo-Nichushkin Pearson-Paul-Jarnkrok Highmore-Lammikko-Motte Lockwood Hughes-Roy OEL-Marino Rathbone-Schenn Dermott-Myers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drakrami Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 If Slafkovsky is top 6 already next season, it begs the question why the hell when NJ trade it away for another top 6. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted June 21, 2022 Author Share Posted June 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, BigTramFan said: Overall I like your original proposal. But I don't think Lyubushkin is a good target. I certainly wouldn't pay him anywhere near $4m AAV. He and OEL have shown in a large sample size, just 1 season ago, that they are not a good pairing. OEL + Lyu at even strength in 2020/21: GA/60 = 2.95, GF/60 = 1.27 OEL + Myers at even strength in 2021/22: GA/60 = 2.27, GF/60 = 2.39 Instead of Lyu, I would look at trading Boeser for Matt Roy (LAK) and signing Nichushkin at $6m to replace Boeser. Buy out Dickinson. This gives about $7m in cap space so I would also look to add some veteran presence and versatility in the bottom 6 such as Jarnkrok ($2.2m) and Motte ($2m) Slightly tweaked roster from your original: Slafkovsky-Petey-Podkolzin Kuzmenko-Bo-Nichushkin Pearson-Paul-Jarnkrok Highmore-Lammikko-Motte Lockwood Hughes-Roy OEL-Marino Rathbone-Schenn Dermott-Myers I could definitely live with that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 59 minutes ago, Alflives said: IF we can get Kakko + Kravstov + a second from from the Rags for Miller i think that's fair value. But would it be better to just go for a one for one deal and get the best possible single asset in return? Would 5OA be better than those two players and the Rags' second? I'm thinking less in return volume and more in value would be better, because then we could get an elite (potentially) piece to add to our key core rather than several support pieces. Oh i definitely think we might be better off going for a young asset that's got promise over a lottery ticket. For one the timing isn't great ... NYR target would be nice to get Schnieder ... COL Byram... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 4 hours ago, DrJockitch said: Turned out fine. Not every high pick is going to be a star in the league after 2 COVID shortened season at the age of 20. He is a solid physical winger on the way up in his career. PFs have always taken longer. When did Kaapo Kakko become a power forward? That's like saying Pool Party is a power forward. Just because they have size doesn't mean they are considered a PF. As a 2OA he is a bust. He may become a serviceable player like his countryman Pool Party, but neither one of them will ever be a legit top 6 forward in the NHL... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted June 21, 2022 Share Posted June 21, 2022 33 minutes ago, Drakrami said: If Slafkovsky is top 6 already next season, it begs the question why the hell when NJ trade it away for another top 6. There isn't any player in this 2022 draft that will be a top 6 player next year. Shane Wright might even fall out of the top 3 picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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