[Discussion] Best Way Forward

[Doogie]

After watching these finals I’ve come to a conclusion, the make up of this team cannot and will not compete against the Avalanche or Lighting. If you think the right moves this off season can right the ship, I still believe we will be a tier below these two teams.
 

Although, I have faith in this management group, Benning left us a not so bright future. In OEL, Myers, Dickinson and Poolman there’s close to 19 million in cap space that could have been better utilized elsewhere. I believe in building from the net out and we have zero blue chip D prospects, well, zero blue chip prospects across the board. 
 

After watching these finals, I believe it would be best to tear it down and rebuild. Use these next two drafts to right the ship and build for the future. I would hang on to Pettersson, Hughes, Demko and Podkolzin but everyone is up for grabs. 

I’d rather this team be great for the future rather than mediocre for the coming few years and then jump into a rebuild. I feel we’re the new Minnesota Wild, just good enough to make the playoffs but never good enough to actually contend for the cup. 

 

[Elias Pettersson]

Horvat and Kuzmenko can certainly be added to that list.  We also have a very good 4th line, much better with Motte, so maybe we get a Motte type of replacement.  Our backup goalie is also very good and would be the starting goalie on several playoff teams.  I'm still hopeful that Boeser can return to his 2020-2021 form when he was our best player.  

 

We aren't as bad as people think.  We don't need to tear it down.  If Miller gets moved then we get some key assets in place.  We need a better 3rd line, a winger for Petey and a defence partner for both Hughes and OEL.  That's 6 maybe 7 guys.  If we get a couple from the Miller trade and another one from a Garland trade then that shortens it even further to 3-4 guys.

[Devron]

Sorry but anyone that suggests that OEL isn’t a good defencemen ain’t watching 

[48MPHSlapShot]

A full blown rebuild won't be possible if we're holding onto Petey, Hughes and especially Demko. 

[PunjabiCanucks]

Assuming we roll 3 lines

 

Pearson (20) Miller (30) Boeser (30)

Podkolzin (20) Petey (30) Kuzmenko (20)

Hoglander (20) Horvat (30) Garland (20)

4th line (15 goals)

Forward Group GF: 245 GOALS 

 

Hughes - Schenn

OEL - Myers

Rathbone - Dermott

 

---

 

Our top 9 isnt bad tbh, ofc it would be sweet if Kuzmenko Pod Hog and Pearson break out

 

Our biggest problem is Hughes isnt a true PP1 Quarterback, OEL is and has a more lethal shot. OEL can't walk the line as nice nor gain zone entry as well as Hughes .

 

Myers is overpaid, aswell as OEL. Schenn isnt a true top pairing dman but is forced to play it.

Ideally 

 

Hughes - An actual #1RD who can score 30 points but shutdown.

OEL- Schenn

Bye bye Myers

and a better bottom pairing that doesnt have players like Dermott or Poolman getting paid too much

 

---

 

 

Bubble Demko and our top 9 can win us a few series, its our defence that will prevent us from winning a cup

Edited June 28, 2022 by PunjabiCanucks

[Coconuts]

[Phil_314]

I think OEL can play that McDonagh role in TB, being the smart, savvy vet that can handle a shutdown role.  He just needs the right partner.  On Colorado he just might be Erik Johnson (he'd be able to play up a pair but Byram and Manson played the 2nd, making for a stacked 3rd tandem).  We need big minute RD vets that can play two-way games.  We might just have to trade out a pricey forward for a good RHD but we're not far off; don't blow things up when they're finally trending in the right direction under JR and PA.

[Warhippy]

Best way forward?  usually a straight line son.  

[Guest]

33 minutes ago, Phil_314 said:

I think OEL can play that McDonagh role in TB, being the smart, savvy vet that can handle a shutdown role.  He just needs the right partner.  On Colorado he just might be Erik Johnson (he'd be able to play up a pair but Byram and Manson played the 2nd, making for a stacked 3rd tandem).  We need big minute RD vets that can play two-way games.  We might just have to trade out a pricey forward for a good RHD but we're not far off; don't blow things up when they're finally trending in the right direction under JR and PA.

OEL is a much better d-man then both McDonaugh and Erik or Jack Johnson.  I wouldn't even have them in the same conversation.  

 

 

OP we are missing one really good RHD.  Everything else isn't that important.  It's very easy to say that we're not good enough and should rebuild from scratch but here's the thing.  We can do 5 more rebuilds and there's absolutely no guarantee that we would get to be as good as this Avs or Tampa teams.  

 

I think this team needs to push forward and at most trade a couple of older vets for some younger players.  

We also need to keep our internal cap the way it is, with our best players making 7 mil/year and everyone else falling in line below.  I would only break 8 mil/year for JT, but otherwise Horvat shouldn't have a salary starting with a 7 for example.  

 

I am not in favour of a rebuild.  

[Phil_314]

4 minutes ago, VancouverHabitant said:

OEL is a much better d-man then both McDonaugh and Erik or Jack Johnson.  I wouldn't even have them in the same conversation.  

I mean that strictly in terms of role, not player ability (Quinn is the #1 pair's horse, OEL carries his own pair just like Hedman has his pair, then McDonagh/ Cernak for the tough secondary minutes, or Johnson after Makar's duo).

[KKnight]

1 hour ago, Devron said:

Sorry but anyone that suggests that OEL isn’t a good defencemen ain’t watching 

It really boggles my mind, when I see all the OEL hate. Is he overpaid? Probably, but I guarantee if he was given PP time, the guy would have at least 45-50 points per season. His skating is great and he is a very smart player. 

[Devron]

15 minutes ago, KKnight said:

It really boggles my mind, when I see all the OEL hate. Is he overpaid? Probably, but I guarantee if he was given PP time, the guy would have at least 45-50 points per season. His skating is great and he is a very smart player. 

He’s a great defencemen. There are Dman making more money than OEL that I’d argue aren’t any better. He can be that no.1 defencemen when given the opportunity. He flourished when Hughes was out. Problem is we need guys that complement Hughes and OEL. We manage to find those players and we are instantly a playoff team. No question in my mind. I also think the coaching staff could do a better job utilizing OEL. Then again it’s not easy when the right side is quite weak. Love Schenn but he should be playing 3rd line minutes for example 

[DownUndaCanuck]

I think there's a big reason JR publicly went out to say there's more than 1 way to win a Cup, because we don't fit the mould of tanking, harvesting top-3 picks and then going on a big tear.

 

I agree, we're becoming the Minnesota Wild - always in that fringe of the playoffs which leads us to mid-1st round picks. That being said, we've done our tanking and it wasn't really as good as some of the other teams. We got Petey and Hughes, great, wasted Virtanen and Juolevi's high picks and missed out on a top-3 pick the entire time, let alone any 1st overall picks.

 

More importantly than the picks are the players and something which is consistent, regardless of picks, is that you need a Norris winner to win the Cup. Hedman vs Makar sums it up. That seems to be the underlying factor in all the Cup winners. Honestly, going back the list of Cup winners, the last team to not have a bonified top-3 NHL defenceman was probably the Hurricanes in 2006. Every other team since then has had a solid core of a top center, Norris-calibre defenceman and a good goalie.

 

Is Hughes that Norris-worthy guy? Offensively and skating-wise, yes. Defensively he's pretty good. Physically, no. We haven't seen him in a playoff matchup very much so it's hard to say, but your top defenceman needs to log 23-27 minutes against top forwards and shut them down. Makar didn't do much defending to be fair (and IMO he didn't deserve the Norris over Josi because of this fact), but Colorado just run the play so much that he rarely had to defend.

 

Can Petey be a top center in the playoffs? Offensively he's got the tools. Defensively he is as smart as any of the forwards. Physically again, he's not on par with guys like MacKinnon, Crosby, Bergeron, Kopitar, ROR.

 

The big key we have is Demko - he's as good as any young goalie can be and gives us a decent shot.

 

Sadly blowing up the core isn't really an option unless we want to suck for another 5-10 years and we'll be too good for that, so we kind of have to just accept who we've drafted and move from there. The difference is that Colorado and TBL haven't wasted their top (or late) picks whereas we have with Virtanen and Juolevi, who could have been Nylander and Tkachuk.

 

If I were management I wouldn't blow up the team but rather go "all-in" on this young core. Really try and load up (without blowing 1st round picks) and give them a shot. If and when they fail, we'll tank again in a good 7ish years time and hopefully that tank will then be much harder to get us a top-3 pick in consecutive years. 

[Viper007]

2 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

I think there's a big reason JR publicly went out to say there's more than 1 way to win a Cup, because we don't fit the mould of tanking, harvesting top-3 picks and then going on a big tear.

 

I agree, we're becoming the Minnesota Wild - always in that fringe of the playoffs which leads us to mid-1st round picks. That being said, we've done our tanking and it wasn't really as good as some of the other teams. We got Petey and Hughes, great, wasted Virtanen and Juolevi's high picks and missed out on a top-3 pick the entire time, let alone any 1st overall picks.

 

More importantly than the picks are the players and something which is consistent, regardless of picks, is that you need a Norris winner to win the Cup. Hedman vs Makar sums it up. That seems to be the underlying factor in all the Cup winners. Honestly, going back the list of Cup winners, the last team to not have a bonified top-3 NHL defenceman was probably the Hurricanes in 2006. Every other team since then has had a solid core of a top center, Norris-calibre defenceman and a good goalie.

 

Is Hughes that Norris-worthy guy? Offensively and skating-wise, yes. Defensively he's pretty good. Physically, no. We haven't seen him in a playoff matchup very much so it's hard to say, but your top defenceman needs to log 23-27 minutes against top forwards and shut them down. Makar didn't do much defending to be fair (and IMO he didn't deserve the Norris over Josi because of this fact), but Colorado just run the play so much that he rarely had to defend.

 

Can Petey be a top center in the playoffs? Offensively he's got the tools. Defensively he is as smart as any of the forwards. Physically again, he's not on par with guys like MacKinnon, Crosby, Bergeron, Kopitar, ROR.

 

The big key we have is Demko - he's as good as any young goalie can be and gives us a decent shot.

 

Sadly blowing up the core isn't really an option unless we want to suck for another 5-10 years and we'll be too good for that, so we kind of have to just accept who we've drafted and move from there. The difference is that Colorado and TBL haven't wasted their top (or late) picks whereas we have with Virtanen and Juolevi, who could have been Nylander and Tkachuk.

 

If I were management I wouldn't blow up the team but rather go "all-in" on this young core. Really try and load up (without blowing 1st round picks) and give them a shot. If and when they fail, we'll tank again in a good 7ish years time and hopefully that tank will then be much harder to get us a top-3 pick in consecutive years. 

Why do you think Josi deserved the Norris more than Makar?  Personally I had Makar over Josi.  Makar played against the opponents best players.  Josi was not used as a #1 defense pair.  That went to Ekholm.  Makar also played more PK time than Josi.  All Josi did was have what ... 10 more points?

[JamesB]

3 hours ago, Devron said:

Sorry but anyone that suggests that OEL isn’t a good defencemen ain’t watching 

 

2 hours ago, 48MPHSlapShot said:

A full blown rebuild won't be possible if we're holding onto Petey, Hughes and especially Demko. 

I was going to make the same two points but I guess I will just have to repeat them (and maybe amplify a bit).

 

1. OEL's cap hit is a bit higher than the team would like and, at age 30 with 5 years to go, there is some risk that his play could decline. However, he is very good and, based on various "insider" rumors, Canuck management knows he is very good and would like to structure the defense to take better advantage of his skill set. I would add that D-men of his type often remain very good into their mid-30s and the cap will probably go up quite a lot down the road (remember inflation). His contract could end up looking pretty good.

 

One thing that a lot of people overlook is that OEL plays really tough minutes and plays them well. And everyone he plays with (especially Myers) is much better playing with OEL. And OEL's underlying numbers are very good. Anyway, he is part of the solution, not part of the problem.

 

2. As for the "tear-down and rebuild" approach -- it works in two ways. First, the team trades away established older players and acquires prospects and picks. Second, the team does really badly for a few years and gets correspondingly high draft picks. That was, for example, what Colorado did. 

 

If the Canucks retain Demko, Hughes, Petey, and Podkolzin (not to mention Horvat) there is no way that team does badly enough get top 5 picks unless the rest of the team consists of guys from my beer league team. You can't keep those guys and have a tear-down. 

 

3. A tear-down is not going to happen and it is not the only way to build a Cup contender. It is possible to start from a position like the Canucks are in. Not easy, but possible, and it would require trading away good veteran players. That obviously includes Miller. I think Boeser, Myers, and Pearson are also likely candidates to be traded as they are not great fits for the JR model.

[DownUndaCanuck]

1 hour ago, Viper007 said:

Why do you think Josi deserved the Norris more than Makar?  Personally I had Makar over Josi.  Makar played against the opponents best players.  Josi was not used as a #1 defense pair.  That went to Ekholm.  Makar also played more PK time than Josi.  All Josi did was have what ... 10 more points?

I've seen this argument a lot but my main argument is this - look at the teams. All of those advanced stats are so team-based, it's hard to really compare players these days. Simply watching the game Josi is a better defensive/physical guy than Makar. Makar makes mistakes all the time when I watch him - even look at the last Tampa Bay goal. Makar's got the puck on his own blue line, boggles it and Stamkos scores. He makes little mistakes defensively all the time.

 

The obvious good thing about him is that he covers it up with very dynamic play and controls the puck so well in the neutral and offensive zones. My main problem is that Colorado just dominate the game most of the time, so Makar's rarely having to defend. Look at the players on the ice, Josi is the best player on his team by a long way. Makar may have moved into that category during the playoffs, but during the regular season you've got MacKinnon, Raantanen and even his defensive partner is putting up PPG.

 

There's a reason Josi got more 1st votes than Makar, Makar just edged him because of the later votes. That basically tells us that more people think Josi is the best defenceman in the league over Makar. 

 

No doubt he elevated his game in the playoffs, but during the regular season I think Josi deserved it and not for the points. Sometimes these advanced statistics really make things quite murky because look at all the Avs players stats- they're all great. There should be a way to compare the stats to the team average which would be a better way to compare to players on other teams.

[IBatch]

Expecting a team as good as COL or TB is a bit of a pipe dream.   Tearing it down isn't going to make us better necessarily but do get the temptation.   Of COL roster only six players were drafted, the rest came from trades or UFAs - as in anyone who actually played a game this playoffs (23 players) Might surprise some ... sure did me.   That included Newhook and Byram!   Which means only FOUR players on their core were actually drafted.   

 

Trades go a long way.  Got them Girard (solid top four D), Kadri  (Miller-lite),  Toews (top pairing D on any team...for two seconds lol),  Kuemper who was great in ARI plus plus plus - and those trades resulted in Makar (tanking) and Byram (Duchene trade).   Trader Joe Sakic acquired 11 players on that roster from trades, and really could count 13 (given the picks that worked out as well)... and 5 from free agency.    

 

Point is, if you look at COL - and want to emulate that, wise trades go a long way towards achieving that goal.   OEL and Garland was actually a decent start.   Of course Miller worked out better then anyone expected.    Those types of trades have add a lot of value.   

Edited June 28, 2022 by IBatch

[IBatch]

4 hours ago, JamesB said:

 

I was going to make the same two points but I guess I will just have to repeat them (and maybe amplify a bit).

 

1. OEL's cap hit is a bit higher than the team would like and, at age 30 with 5 years to go, there is some risk that his play could decline. However, he is very good and, based on various "insider" rumors, Canuck management knows he is very good and would like to structure the defense to take better advantage of his skill set. I would add that D-men of his type often remain very good into their mid-30s and the cap will probably go up quite a lot down the road (remember inflation). His contract could end up looking pretty good.

 

One thing that a lot of people overlook is that OEL plays really tough minutes and plays them well. And everyone he plays with (especially Myers) is much better playing with OEL. And OEL's underlying numbers are very good. Anyway, he is part of the solution, not part of the problem.

 

2. As for the "tear-down and rebuild" approach -- it works in two ways. First, the team trades away established older players and acquires prospects and picks. Second, the team does really badly for a few years and gets correspondingly high draft picks. That was, for example, what Colorado did. 

 

If the Canucks retain Demko, Hughes, Petey, and Podkolzin (not to mention Horvat) there is no way that team does badly enough get top 5 picks unless the rest of the team consists of guys from my beer league team. You can't keep those guys and have a tear-down. 

 

3. A tear-down is not going to happen and it is not the only way to build a Cup contender. It is possible to start from a position like the Canucks are in. Not easy, but possible, and it would require trading away good veteran players. That obviously includes Miller. I think Boeser, Myers, and Pearson are also likely candidates to be traded as they are not great fits for the JR model.

This is a great post.   I think a lot of us feel the same way.   I also agree that a re-set of the rebuild isn't going to happen the same way it worked out in COL.   That was just both pure luck and well more pure luck.   First of Makar.   Nobody even they didn't expect him to be a generational defenseman.   Which so far that's exactly how it's turning out. And no way did they or anyone else for that matter, see an OTT team that was one goal from OT in game seven of the conference final, trading for Duchene, that first put off for a year and in that short period of time a complete implosion.   OTT basically traded away an entire core, none of which had reached free agency yet lol.  Byram was the return.  

 

Said it a many times, this team simply won't go into a rebuild mode with high picks while Demko is around.   Only way we could remotely try and be the worst team in the league (which COL was by over 20 points, we were second worst that year) and then lost the lottery and won it anyways with Makar lol...is putting Demko on ice for a year.  Not going to happen. 

 

The only thing i don't really agree with is Pearson.   I agree he's got very decent trade value, he's punching well above his cap hit for a middle six vet at just over 3 (if he scores 33 points he's a very good cap hit)  but not sure why he wouldn't fit JR/Allvins model.    I'd love it if we could trade Myers and go after Manson ... he's the league's current Mitchell type.   I've wanted him for years now.   

 

COL..6 drafted players of the 23 that played one playoff game (including Byram and Newhook!)...11 guys via trade ... 5 UFAs.    Our team?  Horvat, Demko, Brock, EP, QHs, Podz, Hogs ... pretty close to the same.   Maybe i missed someone not sure lol.   Will say JB also got Miller, OEL and Garland instead of two lottery tickets as well.   Would anyone not want Toews for two seconds?   Wow did COL do a great job of building that team.   Aside from four guys, the rest were a result of trades.   Quin was also a master trader.   We need some of that right now. 

[JM_]

9 hours ago, 48MPHSlapShot said:

A full blown rebuild won't be possible if we're holding onto Petey, Hughes and especially Demko. 

you could do a one year tank though. If they did jettison Miller, Bo, Boeser, Myers, Pearson, Garland there would be a lot of 1sts in 2023 and maybe 24, and some really interesting offer sheet opportunities. 

 

I don't think this is in the cards at all, but with both Bo and Miller in their last years and Boeser an RFA the timing is certainly there for it if they wanted to. 

[wildcam]

9 hours ago, KKnight said:

It really boggles my mind, when I see all the OEL hate. Is he overpaid? Probably, but I guarantee if he was given PP time, the guy would have at least 45-50 points per season. His skating is great and he is a very smart player. 

I agree OEL is still a decent D man playing a different role in Vancouver.. He plays shut down role up against other teams best players and not get much PP time unless Hughes is hurt.. OEL solid #2 - #3 D man should be in the 6 million Dollar range ..OEL would be 37--44 point guy with. PP time..

Benning should of had Arizona retain 2 million with all the term on OEL contract..

Arizona were so lucky the player they wanted to traded would only agree to 2 teams Vancouver or Boston? 

We dump 3 bad salaries for 1 season and also trade 1st rounder top ten, 2nd rounder and 7th RD --

Return OEL 7.2 X 6 yrs -- Garland 25...I do like OEL should of been 6 million  -- Garland should be a 20-25 G--55--65 point guy for next 5 yrs

Arizona really won this deal....