Canuck Forwards After Free Agency

[JamesB]

The Canucks did more than expected on the first day of free agency. The signing of Kuzmenko was already a done deal and it was made official when free agency opened. And signing Larzar was no surprise and had been widely suggested as a possibility. But signing Mikheyev was a big surprise and the Canucks also brought in Dakota Joshua (and Allvin has said he expects him to be on the NHL team).

 

And no one was traded away. Despite all the talk about a possible Miller trade and rumors and speculation about various other forwards who might be traded (Pearson, Garland, Dickinson, Hoglander) no trades occurred and all those guys are still Canucks.

 

That means that the Canucks have more "NHL forwards" than can fit on the 23-man roster, giving rise to the "internal competition" that Allvin said he likes (as does pretty much every GM).

 

So I thought this would be a good time to step back and see where the Canucks are with the forwards and how this year's group compares with last year. 

 

First, here is the list of "NHL forwards" on the team. I have ordered them by my sense of relative ability -- but don't pay too much attention to the ordering as it is just a rough approximation. Basically I just want to get the names down in some kind of meaningful order.  

 

1. Miller
2. Pettersson
3. Horvat
4. Boeser
5. Garland
6. Mikheyev
7. Kuzmenko
8. Podkolzin
9. Pearson
10. Hoglander
11. Lazar
12. Dickinson
13. Lockwood
14. Joshua
15. Karlsson
16. Dowling

 

!6 names is too many. And the Canucks have other guys who will make a push in training camp: Aman, Bains, Klimovich, and Di Guiseppe, although all those guys will almost certainly start in Abby, as will Dries.

 

The Canucks need 12 guys to put on the ice and will carry either one extra forward (13th man) or two (adding a 14th man) in the 23-man roster.

It seems pretty obvious that Dowling will go to Abby and I am guessing that Karlsson also starts in Abby. That leaves 14 guys who I expect to be on the 23-man roster.

 

So how do these forwards compare with last year's team.

 

A. Additions versus subtractions.

 

The additions are much better than the subtractions. No disrespect intended to Motte, Lammikko, Highmore, Chiasson, and Petan (subtractions), but the additions are, as a group, much better players. Mikheyev is at a different level than the group leaving. And, while Kuzmenko has not yet played in the NHL, chances are that he is also a much higher level player. Lazar replaces Lammikko at 4C and on PK and, while I like Lammer, I think Lazer is a significantly more valuable player in those slots. (And that is obviously the decision the Canucks made). And Joshua brings some potential toughness that the departing guys did not have.

 

The other point about the additions is that they add what JR said the team wanted -- speed, "sandpaper", energy, PK ability, secondary scoring, and being "tough to play against".

 

B. Age-related effects.

 

Age-related changes matter a lot. Roughly speaking, you expect guys under 25 to improve year-to-year, you expect guys in the 25-30 range to stay about the same, and you expect guys over 30 to show some age-related decline. There is a lot of individual variation, but those ranges provides a pretty good general indication. 

 

None of the forwards likely to be on the 23-man roster are over 30. In fact, none are over 29 as the oldest guys are Miller and Pearson, who are both 29.

The Canucks have three guys in the likely 23 man roster under 25: Podkolzin, Hoglander, and Pettersson, and it is reasonable to expect a significant step forward from all three of those guys, especially Podkolzin. Most of the forwards are in their "early prime" -- which is a good place to be. 

 

So age-related effects also suggest improvement.

 

C. Regression to the mean.

 

In any given year some guys have a good year -- good luck, good fit, good linemates, staying healthy. And some guys have unusually bad years. Usually a guy who has a "career year" tends to come back down to earth the following year, but guys who have bad luck usually bounce back -- returning to the "mean" or expected performance for that player. It is possible to get a sense of how this will go by looking at underlying numbers like PDO and expected goals (xGF and xGA) and by thinking about deployment, quality of line-mates and quality of competition. 

 

I have taken a look at those things and there are some obvious conclusions.

 

a. Miller had a career year. He is unlikely to be as good next year. But he will still be good. I think it would be reasonable to project him as about a point per game player, as he was in the two years before last year.  

 

b. On the other hand, Boeser had a disappointing year. Part of it was personal issues (the illness of his father) and part of it was bad luck. He should bounce back. Dickinson should also bounce back. This is a significant plus. And I have already suggested that Petey should have a good year, partly because of age-related improvement and partly due to "bounce-back" from a bad first half of the season. 

 

Overall, I think that regression to the mean should have a small positive net effect as bounceback for Boeser, Petey, and Dickie should more than offset regression to the mean for Miller. 

 

D. What about coaching? The forwards improved a lot when Boudreau took over. Part of it was fit and part was the Green had "lost the room" and the team just needed a change. Having Boudreau all year should help the forwards. 

 

Bottom line:

 

I expect a departure or two but I would not be surprised if we don't see much change over the summer. A possible Miller trade is the big question mark but that is looking less and less likely as time passes. 

 

This forward group will be good. If Miller stays it could be the best forward group in the Pacific Division. Edmonton has McDavid and Draisaitl (and Kane, which might be positive or negative), but the Canucks have better depth. And losing Gaudreau obviously hurts Calgary a lot. . 

 

Edited July 15, 2022 by JamesB

[BureBurrito]

Dowling shouldn't even be on this list (isn't gonna make the club); Karlsson likely starts in the AHL no matter what.

 

Still feel their bottom 4th line depth is a little weak. I think once they shore up the D a few PTO's might be offered up.

[EternalCanuckFan]

2 minutes ago, JamesB said:

The Canucks did more than expected on the first day of free agency. The signing of Kuzmenko was already a done deal and it was made official when free agency opened. And signing Larzar was no surprise and had been widely suggested as a possibility. But signing Mikheyev was a big surprise and the Canucks also brought in Dakota Joshua (and Allvin has said he expects him to be on the NHL team).

 

And no one was traded away. Despite all the talk about a possible Miller trade and rumors and speculation about various other forwards who might be traded (Pearson, Garland, Dickinson, Hoglander) no trades occurred and all those guys are still Canucks.

 

That means that the Canucks have more "NHL forwards" than can fit on the 23-man roster, giving rise to the "internal competition" that Allvin said he likes (as does pretty much every GM).

 

So I thought this would be a good time to step back and see where the Canucks are with the forwards and how this year's group compares with last year. 

 

First, here is the list of "NHL forwards" on the team. I have ordered them by my sense of relative ability -- but don't pay too much attention to the ordering as it is just a rough approximation. Basically I just want to get the names down in some kind of meaningful order.  

 

1. Miller
2. Pettersson
3. Horvat
4. Boeser
5. Garland
6. Mikheyev
7. Kuzmenko
8. Podkolzin
9. Pearson
10. Hoglander
11. Lazar
12. Dickinson
13. Lockwood
14. Joshua
15. Karlsson
16. Dowling

 

!6 names is too many. And the Canucks have other guys who will make a push in training camp: Aman, Bains, Klimovich, and Di Guiseppe, although all those guys will almost certainly start in Abby, as will Dries.

 

The Canucks need 12 guys to put on the ice and will carry either one extra forward (13th man) or two (adding a 14th man) in the 23-man roster.

It seems pretty obvious that Dowling will go to Abby and I am guessing that Karlsson also starts in Abby. That leaves 14 guys who I expect to be on the 23-man roster.

 

So how do these forwards compare with last year's team.

 

A. Additions versus subtractions.

 

The additions are much better than the subtractions. No disrespect intended to Motte, Lammikko, Highmore, and Petan (subtractions), but the additions are, as a group, are much better players. Mikheyev is at a different level than the group leaving. And, while Kuzmenko has not yet played in the NHL, chances are that he is also a much higher level player. Lazar replaces Lammikko at 4C and on PK and, while I like Lammer, I think Lazer is a significantly more valuable player in those slots. (And that is obviously the decision the Canucks made).

 

The other point about the additions is that they add what JR said the team wanted -- speed, "sandpaper", energy, PK ability, secondary scoring, and being "tough to play against".

 

B. Age-related effects.

 

Age-related changes matter a lot. Roughly speaking, you expect guys under 25 to improve year-to-year, you expect guys in the 25-30 range to stay about the same, and you expect guys over 30 to show some age-related decline. There is a lot of individual variation, but those ranges provides a pretty good general indication. 

 

None of the forwards likely to be on the 23-man roster are over 30. In fact, none are over 29 as the oldest guys are Miller and Pearson, who are both 29.

The Canucks have only two guys in the likely 23 man roster under 25: Podkolzin and Pettersson, but it is reasonable to expect a significant step forward from both those guys, especially Podkolzin. Most of the forwards are in their "early prime" -- which is a good place to be. 

 

So age-related effects also suggest improvement.

 

C. Regression to the mean.

 

In any given year some guys have a good year -- good luck, good fit, good linemates, staying healthy. And some guys have unusually bad years. Usually a guy who has a "career year" tends to come back down to earth the following year, but guys who have bad luck usually bounce back -- returning to the "mean" or expected performance for that player. It is possible to get a sense of how this will go by looking at underlying numbers like PDO and expected goals (xGF and xGA) and by thinking about deployment, quality of line-mates and quality of competition. 

 

I have taken a look at those things and there are some obvious conclusions.

 

a. Miller had a career year. He is unlikely to be as good next year. But he will still be good. I think it would be reasonable to project him as about a point per game player, as he was in the two years before last year.  

 

b. On the other hand, Boeser had a disappointing year. Part of it was personal issues (the illness of his father) and part of it was bad luck. He should bounce back. Dickinson should also bounce back. This is a significant plus. And I have already suggested that Petey should have a good year, partly because of age-related improvement and partly due to "bounce-back" from a bad first half of the season. 

 

Overall, I think that regression to the mean should have a small positive net effect as bounceback for Boeser, Petey, and Dickie should more than offset regression to the mean for Miller. 

 

D. What about coaching? The forwards improved a lot when Boudreau took over. Part of it was fit and part was the Green had "lost the room" and the team just needed a change. Having Boudreau all year should help the forwards. 

 

Bottom line:

 

I expect a departure or two but I would not be surprised if we don't see much change over the summer. A possible Miller trade is the big question mark but that is looking less and less likely as time passes. 

 

This forward group will be good. If Miller stays it could be the best forward group in the Western Conference (top to bottom) Edmonton has McDavid and Draisaitl (and Kane, which might be positive or negative), but the Canucks have better depth. And, as people may have heard, Calgary just had a pretty significant departure. 

 

I agree with your assessment.  The most disappointing thing so far is the lack of action taken with the D core, but it's only Day 2 of the free agency period, 

 

Personally, I'm starting to think that the most likely outcome is that we'll see only one trade go down before or during camp, and not a Miller trade.  My guess would be either Garland or Pearson.  Not a knock on any of those guys, but they seem like the "easiest" to move, particularly to create cap flexibility.  Between the two, Garland is "easier" to move because he doesn't have trade protection, but he has a higher cap hit.  No idea on the return but it might not be very much.  I think Miller might be more of a Trade Deadline deal at this point, despite all the attendant risks of injury, decline in performance, trading a major piece during a run to make the playoffs, etc.  Of course, anything can happen and it only takes one highly motivated team for a deal to get done.

 

As much as I'm all for giving the benefit of the doubt to the new management group, the stressing of patience and for standing pat on their ask does give me pause, if only because if it's tied to indecisiveness or stubborness, then that could be a quite a negative.  Despite the goal of having many voices in management, the benefits of that could be reduced depending on the dynamic between the individuals involved.  Still, I do believe it's too early to be particularly critical of the group so we'll see how the next few weeks unfold.

[JM_]

I'd be pretty surprised if Karlsson made the team out of camp, and thats fine. Time in Abby won't hurt him one bit.

 

Lockwood, Dowling, Hoglander are fighting for the 13th spot. 

 

I do wonder if Hoglander might be moved at some point here, he's not a grinder and he's really in tough to make the top 6 now. 

 

I wonder as well if maybe we'll see a PTO like Richardson or someone like him to have a bit more C depth. 

 

Edited July 14, 2022 by JM_

[Ghostsof1915]

Garland back to the Coyotes for a 2nd round pick (Florida) and Victor Soderstrom?

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, JM_ said:

I'd be pretty surprised if Karlsson made the team out of camp, and thats fine. Time in Abby won't hurt him one bit.

 

Lockwood, Dowling, Hoglander are fighting for the 13th spot. 

 

I do wonder if Hoglander might be moved at some point here, he's not a grinder and he's really in tough to make the top 6 now. 

 

I wonder as well if maybe we'll see a PTO like Richardson or someone like him to have a bit more C depth. 

 

Hogs as the add to Myers to get Larsen out of Seattle?  

Get ‘er done JR!

[StanleyCupOneDay]

Very well thought out and informative post OP, kudos!

 

I don’t think we should forget about Brady Keeper though even if he’s likely to start in Abbotsford this season. He had a terrible freak accident injury prior to last season, but before that he was on the upswing and still has NHL potential.

 

That said I do agree with your assessment that overall our forwards line-up should on paper be better then last year’s. Will it actually? Time will tell.

Edited July 14, 2022 by StanleyCupOneDay

[Jaimito]

You can add the foundation guy Sutter to the list. 

[DrJockitch]

I see a list of 14. As others have said a couple are a real stretch.  That’s your 13 and first call up. That sounds like an absolute minimum. 

[AlwaysACanuckFan]

1 hour ago, JamesB said:

 

1. Miller
2. Pettersson
3. Horvat
4. Boeser
5. Garland
6. Mikheyev
7. Kuzmenko
8. Podkolzin
9. Pearson
10. Hoglander
11. Lazar
12. Dickinson
13. Lockwood
14. Joshua
15. Karlsson
16. Dowling

 

1. Miller
2. Pettersson
3. Horvat
4. Boeser
5. Garland
6. Chiasson 
7. Lammikko
8. Podkolzin
9. Pearson
10. Hoglander
11. Highmore
12. Dickinson
13. Lockwood
14. Motte 
15. Karlsson
16. Dowling

Compared to last season's roster, if the current roster holds up, on paper looks better. Looking forward to seeing how it plays out. Hoping for going the right direction. 

[AlwaysACanuckFan]

1 hour ago, JM_ said:

I'd be pretty surprised if Karlsson made the team out of camp, and thats fine. Time in Abby won't hurt him one bit.

 

Lockwood, Dowling, Hoglander are fighting for the 13th spot. 

 

I do wonder if Hoglander might be moved at some point here, he's not a grinder and he's really in tough to make the top 6 now. 

 

I wonder as well if maybe we'll see a PTO like Richardson or someone like him to have a bit more C depth. 

 

I hope so too because I'm tired of him killing us on an opposing team.

[higgyfan]

1 hour ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Garland back to the Coyotes for a 2nd round pick (Florida) and Victor Soderstrom?

I don't know that the Yotes would do this trade, but Sods would be a huge addition to the Canucks.  I so wanted him

in that draft, but when Podz dropped to 10, it was a no brainer pick.  Sods came right after him at 11.

[iceman64]

Well we have the rest of the off-season to do something and that's easily enough time for JR to pull off something other than JT out which could take awhile but we could offload Pearson and Garland or both and pick up a D and D depth. 

 Bottom six are a dime a dozen in comparison so I don't see it as a big issue. 

I just hope by some miracle we put Van De Beast into a blue uniform if he shows well enough, might need a year in Abby but that would be worth waiting for imo. 

 At the end of the day we have a pretty good roster and can hardly wait until puck drop. 

Otherwise in this situation on topic, I'm hardly worried about it. It's not like we don't have options...

[Jaimito]

 

some comments of the new forwards from Harman Dayal. 

[The Colt 45s]

Very reasonable post.  Well thought out.  We all want the team to improve this season and make the playoffs. I think, as we are currently constructed have the potential to have a fantastic season.  So here's to our glorious future!!!

[Stierlitz]

18 hours ago, Jaimito said:

You can add the foundation guy Sutter to the list. 

Canucks finally get rid of Sutter, he is UFA now.

[Jaimito]

1 hour ago, Stierlitz said:

Canucks finally get rid of Sutter, he is UFA now.

There goes the foundation now. 

[DrJockitch]

I do like the depth of Forwards so far. I like the adds of the two Russians and Lazar.
DJ sounds like a decent depth piece to add toughness which is much needed a long with Lazar. A 4th of Joshua-Lazar-Lockwood could be a wrecking crew. 

3 scoring lines and a tough as nails defensive 4th is really the modern layout not 2 scoring lines a shutdown line and a goon line like it used to be. This is especially true since we are a team without a superstar. 
I have some concerns that we really have 10 wingers in our starting 12. This lineup depends on 2 of JT, EP or Dickinson being centres at all times and has little depth of true Cs.
‘The D, what can you say?  Needs some work. 
We are depending on Schenn playing above his head again. That guy deserves so much credit for what he has done above expectations. 

Q can’t have a bad year or even an average year. 
OEL may be better offensively like Bruce suggested. 
‘Rathbone will be full time, not sure where Dermott fills in as Myers has demonstrated he is a disaster with anyone but OEL. 
Ideally Schenn would move down and do for Rathbone what he has done for Q, somebody would be obtained to play with Q and OEL plays with however is left Myers if still here. 
‘Should be very interesting season. Wonder if any more tricks up their sleeves this off-season. 

Edited July 15, 2022 by DrJockitch

[DrJockitch]

Oops.  Hit wrong thing. 

but let me say, I think that post above this is just brilliant. 

Edited July 15, 2022 by DrJockitch

[Kobayashi Maru]

I ran my own list of relative value to the forward group and was pretty similar.  Either way we have a very very solid forward group, that I think we can pull from to secure some RD needs if possible:

 

1. Pettersson
2. Miller
3. Horvat
4. Boeser
5. Mikheyev
6. Garland
7. Podkolzin
8. Kuzmenko
9. Pearson
10. Hoglander
11. Lockwood
12. Lazar
13. Karlsson
14. Dickinson
15. Joshua
16. Dowling

Bolded will be the opening 13, with Joshua being the first call up so Karlsson doesn't get the back and forth from the AHL treatment.  Similar with giving Rathbone dedicated time in the AHL before making a dedicated jump