Where does JTM rank?

[wildcam]

5 hours ago, MrCanuck94 said:

Miller - 8-9 mil AAV

 

Horvat - 5.5-6 mil AAV

No way Vancouver gives Miller  8--9 Million. ---Miller 6 yrs X 7.8 million--

Horvat will sign 7 X 6.7  million

[wildcam]

31 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

My big question is - how does his production go next year? If he drops to an 80 point pace, what happens to his contract, or better, trade value (more tradeable)? I doubt he does better than last year but if he's playing with a stronger Petey, you never know...

 

I doubt he maintains the same 100pt play though. 

He will drop to 68--72 points next season playing 75 games..

[DownUndaCanuck]

1 hour ago, wildcam said:

He will drop to 68--72 points next season playing 75 games..

I could see this, around a PPG, so where does that leave him for a contract?

 

If Petey is our benchmark and Miller goes back to PPG, he shouldn't get more than 7.5M (considering his age). 

 

I just know that if we sign him to a 8.5-9M deal his production is going to dip hard. He'll be a 40-60 point player in a couple of years, maintain that for a good 3-4 years and then he's done. You see a lot of big contracts around the league handcuffing teams, Point is a similar one. The kid dropped 90 points, made his 9M deal and has never been at a PPG since, and he's much younger too.

 

If management are smart they'll bide their time and wait until next off-season. Miller doesn't want to walk like the Flames, he's said he loves it here and after an even better team season he may take a pay cut, but let's see how his season goes. If he somehow scores at a 100 point pace again then he rightfully deserves to be paid, but I doubt that'll happen.

[teepain]

7x7.25

[Timråfan]

If Miller stays with a contract  7 years and max 7,5 I would consider it.

Since he’s a head shorter than Petey in capacity/creativity and much older. 
 

Petey make things happen while Miller rely heavily on Hughes first and foremost. 

 

[IBatch]

If he signs before the season starts, probably 8.5 x 7.     If he has a better season then last year?   Hart trophy votes and all bets are off.   Hope Bruce rolls 3 lines.    IF he loads one up,  both EP and JT are going to have to get a bigger garage for the size of the Brinks trucks backing up soon. 

[IBatch]

2 hours ago, Timråfan said:

If Miller stays with a contract  7 years and max 7,5 I would consider it.

Since he’s a head shorter than Petey in capacity/creativity and much older. 
 

Petey make things happen while Miller rely heavily on Hughes first and foremost. 

 

He's not signing for less then 8.   The only place he'd consider that is US teams with no state tax.  He will have lost 2.5 plus since being traded here if he finishes the season in Vancouver.   Doubt he leaves that much money on the table. 

Edited July 25, 2022 by IBatch

[Timråfan]

16 minutes ago, IBatch said:

He's not signing for less then 8.   The only place he'd consider that is US teams with no state tax.  He will have lost 2.5 plus since being traded here if he finishes the season in Vancouver.   Doubt he leaves that much money on the table. 

It’s his final contract so I agree. 
But for us 7.5 is tops. Everything above that will be a burden real soon if he gets fat after landing such contract.

[spook007]

16 hours ago, DrJockitch said:

One season does not make it his norm or what is expected on aging forward. Paying big on a career year for older player rarely works out. 

Yep.... Images of Player name in the background.

[spook007]

11 hours ago, MrCanuck94 said:

Miller - 8-9 mil AAV

 

Horvat - 5.5-6 mil AAV

Think Horvat leaves, if that's all he is offered....

[wildcam]

8 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

I could see this, around a PPG, so where does that leave him for a contract?

 

If Petey is our benchmark and Miller goes back to PPG, he shouldn't get more than 7.5M (considering his age). 

 

I just know that if we sign him to a 8.5-9M deal his production is going to dip hard. He'll be a 40-60 point player in a couple of years, maintain that for a good 3-4 years and then he's done. You see a lot of big contracts around the league handcuffing teams, Point is a similar one. The kid dropped 90 points, made his 9M deal and has never been at a PPG since, and he's much younger too.

 

If management are smart they'll bide their time and wait until next off-season. Miller doesn't want to walk like the Flames, he's said he loves it here and after an even better team season he may take a pay cut, but let's see how his season goes. If he somehow scores at a 100 point pace again then he rightfully deserves to be paid, but I doubt that'll happen.

I agree with you 100% and Miller should get between 7.5 - 7.8 million based on his previous 3 season big 6'2, 215 power forward.

But he will be 30 years old when he signs the deal..Signing to 6 yrs X 7.7 million will hurt team in last few years?

Very tough decision Vancouver have to make..If you don't get proper trade value back you keep him..

Vancouver have to have this all figured out before season starts? Can't be in playoff race at trade deadline and have distraction of Miller talks all season... Next few months are very important on Miller trade or signing..

I feel NJ Devils, NYR - NYI  will be teams making final pitch for Miller in August..

I feel Miller will be traded before August 25th ( young D man under 24-- Good young forward prospect - 2nd round pick 2024

 

Example with NJ Devils I could see--( Marino, 25 -  5 yrs  X 4.4 million RD or Severson RD, 28 UFA 2023 )-

Bahl 22, 6'6, 220 LD- -- 2023 2nd rounder 

[wildcam]

5 hours ago, IBatch said:

He's not signing for less then 8.   The only place he'd consider that is US teams with no state tax.  He will have lost 2.5 plus since being traded here if he finishes the season in Vancouver.   Doubt he leaves that much money on the table. 

Big trade coming then..Never sign Miller for 8 million X 7 million.. Next season miller GP 75- PTS 68--72...

Miller will produce 68--72 points for next 2--3 seasons then dropping to 58--65 ---Last few seasons 45-50

We want to have cap space Petey needs to be signed will demand 8.5 X 7 years in 2024

Miller will get offer with Vancouver 6 yrs X 7.7

[Ballisticsports.]

12 hours ago, erkayloomeh said:

I wouldn't trade jt for jg.  Jt brings more to the table than he does and the age difference isn't that far off. 

So I'd pay him the same contract but to the same age. So shorter term. 

Have you wondered why CBJ never made a play for JT then instead of JG? (They got him without giving up players, assets)

I wonder what other teams are thinking and willing to put value and term at extending him ?

Finding a team with the desire and in the right cycle, with the cap space and assets to trade with us is probably difficult (and if we do trade may be underwhelmed with our returns)

[iceman64]

22 hours ago, BarnBurner said:

Personally, even though he's turning 30, I'd put JT first or second. 

 

He's scoring over a PPG, plays hard, doesn't disappear when it matters most, excellent at face-offs and can kill penalties. 

It's not only goals scored either, I don't remember how many gwg he scored but he always seemed to score just at the right times. 

 Timing of goals is important as well, so what if you score 100 in a season if their all in losing causes.

 That's not JTM though, that man takes it upon himself like a one man wrecking ball and scores timely goals. 

 His attitude in that won't show up on any stat sheet but we all know his passion and intensity are like. 

I'd offer 4-5 yrs x 8 ish mil.. everyone is saying 6 years but I think 5 would do it and he's 34 when it's over and could still re-up with us or anyone for a lesser amount or whatever is deemed appropriate for his numbers at the end of the contract. 

 

However I'm still concerned about Bo and Kuz's raises coming, assuming Kuz plays great. 

 I made a thread a 2 years back on how many top tier players can we actually afford. 

 Got flamed about it but now here we are, I knew it was going to happen but at least we can use the assets for trades etc if we can't keep them all which is the good news. 

 Pretty cool for a Canuck fan to be saying that for the first time in canucks history and building depth at the same time. 

How f'n cool is that?!

 

[IBatch]

6 hours ago, spook007 said:

Think Horvat leaves, if that's all he is offered....

No sh!t.   Not even a raise.   Look what Kevin Hayes got...and all Horvat got to play with is ... well until and even last year, Pearson, Bear, LE and a tiny bit of Brock.   So that's a gigantic FU.   He's going to get at least 6.5-7 x 7 unless he falls off a cliff.   Personally feel HE deserves a chance with EP ... but never get one does he?    He's not Linden, or Smyl, but so far at least, he's got this franchise stamped on his ass the same way as those two did.    He's going to get a raise.   And term. 

Edited July 25, 2022 by IBatch

[spook007]

7 minutes ago, IBatch said:

No sh!t.   Not even a raise.   Look what Kevin Hayes got...and all Horvat got to play with is ... well until and even last year, Pearson, Bear, LE and a tiny bit of Brock.   So that's a gigantic FU.   He's going to get at least 6.5-7 x 7 unless he falls off a cliff.   Personally feel HE deserves a chance with EP ... but never get one does he?    He's not Linden, or Smyl, but so far at least, he's got this franchise stamped on his ass the same way as those two did.    He's going to get a raise.   And term. 

I'll tell you this though...

come play offs he raises his game. That's gold. Same as Kessler used to. 
He may not fight, but he lifts the team. More than anyone else, when the chips are down. 
And yes, he always gets, what's left over from the main table, and still produces. Offering JT 9M and Hovat 6 would be an insult. 

[IBatch]

2 hours ago, wildcam said:

I agree with you 100% and Miller should get between 7.5 - 7.8 million based on his previous 3 season big 6'2, 215 power forward.

But he will be 30 years old when he signs the deal..Signing to 6 yrs X 7.7 million will hurt team in last few years?

Very tough decision Vancouver have to make..If you don't get proper trade value back you keep him..

Vancouver have to have this all figured out before season starts? Can't be in playoff race at trade deadline and have distraction of Miller talks all season... Next few months are very important on Miller trade or signing..

I feel NJ Devils, NYR - NYI  will be teams making final pitch for Miller in August..

I feel Miller will be traded before August 25th ( young D man under 24-- Good young forward prospect - 2nd round pick 2024

 

Example with NJ Devils I could see--( Marino, 25 -  5 yrs  X 4.4 million RD or Severson RD, 28 UFA 2023 )-

Bahl 22, 6'6, 220 LD- -- 2023 2nd rounder 

To me this club will be in a bigger pickle if they don't trade him before the season starts, then if they wait until the TDL unless the wheels complete fall off.   Then sure bye bye Miller.   Not going to happen though.   So we should all be fully prepared.   And not be so nit picky about the return if that's the way the club goes either (sells him).  Because it's a lot less then so many CDCers seem to have in their minds.  OF COURSE those trades would have already occurred!   Schnieder, 1st Kakko lol.  Like "woke" white folks who strut around and live in their comfy houses and have keys that start their cars from inside the house - not really at all, awake.    It's simply not happening.   Ok well wake up and bad joke, kind of.  But not really.   Sure i just offended someone.   But - i don't - care if i did because those people don't get history lessons.  Wake up! 

Instead, why can't we just enjoy one more season of JT Miller and wish him luck?.   Does anyone think Nathan McKinnon, is going to "honour his word" and would "do it again" ... that is his last deal.  While both Rantenen and Makar are making total bank lol.   Of course he's not.   He's already looking at boats and private planes.   Don't be naive. 

 

Only way Miller is getting less then 8, is if he gets injured or Bruce puts him on third line with Dickie and Hogs.   And even then, it's going to match EPs deal lol.   He's 30 so what.   Go check out the Sedins deals and what they looked like. the ones they signed at 33 and the ones they signed before and the cap percentages.    Your all dreaming.   And they wanted to play together.   How many times i've listened to Toews B!tch about that team going into a rebuild ... when it was his and Kanes contract that did them in lol.   Like do these guys have a grade four education or something?   Simple math.    Just saying, Miller is going to go for the most he can possibly get - like Toews and Kane, the Sedins, everyone does.   And you can bet, if the Sedins were scoring 99 points each, their contracts would be a lot higher then they were (their ones that equal 8.6ish today, before they broke out).     JT just did what they did plus plus.   So what does that mean for him?   A brinks truck. 

[Baggins]

On 7/24/2022 at 12:55 PM, Got the Babych said:

I'm trying to hold off on my opinion! But, based solely on age and PPG, these should be comparables. The only Center here is Trochek, who I think is a good comparable, but JT has been much more durable which is valuable.

One question. When did those highlighted players sign their deal and what was their production at the time? Both could have a real influence on their salary and cap hit. 

[204CanucksFan]

20 hours ago, MrCanuck94 said:

 

Horvat has a rotating cast of wingers because he's not the type of C that makes his wingers better, you have to find the perfect fit whether it's more grinding type wingers or a playmaker/2 way winger.

 

At the end of the day, unless he takes another step in his development this season, he's a 60 point center, average play maker and average defensively. If he signs 8 years, there's a good chance that he'll take a step back and be a 3C for his age 32-35 years, is that really worth it for a 7 mill C? Or is JT more worth a 8 mill contract because even with a step back, he would be a 2C for around 8 mill and he makes his line mates better and drives play?

 

I'd argue Horvat's value comparables are RNH, Strome and Trochek. Sure he's better at faceoffs, but is that a 2 million value difference?

 

RNH is the best contract comparable when it comes to production and signing a 8 year deal with the team that drafted you in your later 20's.

Bo has a never ending cast of wingers because he is our most consistent center. Put anyone on his line and he still produces and does it at a high rate while playing against the other teams top lines. RNH is a very poor comparison for Bo because Bo actaully drives play whereas RNH has been a passenger on any line he's played on, it's why RNH isn't even a center anymore, he's plays LW for either McD or Drai. Probably the closest proper comparable would be Brayden Schenn who is in his 2nd year of $6.5 × 8yr contract.

 

The only difference is Bo scores more goals and wins way more faceoffs. 

[204CanucksFan]

18 hours ago, Got the Babych said:

It's a valid comparison, but Mika is a pure center and scores more goals. Points definitely matter, but I don't think JT gets Zibanejad money at FA.

I think he will. Over the last 3 seasons, the most recent ones where Miller was given a top 6 opportunity after being buried in TB's depth, MZ has 20 more goals but JT has 20 more points. And as far as being a "pure" center, last season JT won almost as many faceoffs as MZ despite taking over 100 less faceoffs