[Discussion] Projecting Pacific Division 2022/23 Final Finish

[Ghostsof1915]

I'm not sold on Vegas' goaltending.

A lot is going to depend on both their starter and backup having great seasons.

The team seems to be drifting to the Edmontom model where they want to outscore their problems.

They also better hope Martinez and Pietroangelo can keep back father time.

[Bure_Pavel]

A lot of people writing off Vegas and it is a mistake as they have a good team. If they can sign Hague and Roy to cheap bridge deals they will be in good shape. 

 

Vegas 

Edmonton 

Vancouver

Calgary 

Seattle 

LA 

Ducks

San Jose

[Got the Babych]

14 hours ago, Crabcakes said:

That's some Oiler love   You wish!

I could see it happening. I actually think the Canucks will do well, but...I think that every August/September so tempering expectations.

[VegasCanuck]

1 hour ago, Bure_Pavel said:

A lot of people writing off Vegas and it is a mistake as they have a good team. If they can sign Hague and Roy to cheap bridge deals they will be in good shape. 

 

Vegas 

Edmonton 

Vancouver

Calgary 

Seattle 

LA 

Ducks

San Jose

I look at Vegas and on paper, they have a good team and I think they will start strong. I think their problem is a lack of overall depth through their lineup and that they are going to struggle with consistency throughout the year due to exhaustion.

 

When they are on, I think they are going to be a formidable team, but I think they will have trouble maintaining that.

 

[NoBigNeil]

1 hour ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

I'm not sold on Vegas' goaltending.

A lot is going to depend on both their starter and backup having great seasons.

The team seems to be drifting to the Edmontom model where they want to outscore their problems.

They also better hope Martinez and Pietroangelo can keep back father time.

I don't think Lehner had even made the playoffs without a legitimate goaltender to split games with (I.e Fleury)

[VegasCanuck]

46 minutes ago, NoBigNeil said:

I don't think Lehner had even made the playoffs without a legitimate goaltender to split games with (I.e Fleury)

I agree

[Warhippy]

6 hours ago, Strictly Bizness said:

Assuming the team to start the year is the same as it is currently I would say to your points:

 

1) Miller has been a ppg player since coming to the Canucks and last year took another level.  He is in his prime and he should continue to be at least a PPG player

2) Petterson also had a terrible first half of the year.  The second half he did very well.  With that said, I would argue that he has potential for another gear or two above where he was in the second half.  He is still very young and not in his prime years yet

3) Horval continues to be who he is.  A solid dependable player that will get you anywhere between 25-35 goals a year.  We will expect more of the same next year

4) Demko is elite as is his work ethic.  He has arguably one of the best goalie coaches as well.  We can continue to expect elite goaltending

5) Hughes is one of the top 10-15 defenseman in the league and will continue to be.  He is a huge competitor and we can expect that his training in the offseason will make him even better.  He wants to be the best at all times and you can tell by the way he carries himself he has a confidence about him that we wants to be the best in the league.  Makar is that person and I don't know if Hughes has that potential but he can certainly be a top 5 defenseman soon and maybe as early as next year.

 

Other points you did not mention:

 

1) We brought in Kuzmenko.  Big X factor but has high upside skill

2) Ilya Mikheyev- Brings much needed speed and maybe as important, he is an excellent penalty killer

3) Curtis Lazar- Brings much needed sandpaper.  Dakota Joshua and Wyatt Kalynuk are good depth signings

4) Penalty kill last year, especially in the first half of last year was atrocious.  This should be much better with Mikheyev, Lazar and Joshua

5) Boeser should have a rebound year.  We know what he went through last year. 

 

X factors- Rathbone, Poolman on Defense.  Can they provide enough depth on  Defense.  Will Poolman be health.   

Podkolzin on offence in his sophomore year.  Does his contribution go up as we would expect, or does it go down based on what happens with some sophomores including  Hoglander

 

The way our roster is currently structured, imho we are over a 100 point team.  I believe the Oilers will be 1st and Canucks second in the division.

That's a ton of hopey prayer type stuff.

 

I am trying to be realistic besides my homeristic tendencies.

 

We wildly overachieved last year and while that is not out of the question this year; I see our division as having gotten harder to play against not easier.

[Trebreh]

1. Edmonton - ONLY because of Mcottery

2. Vancouver - We have a more solid balance lineup, a full season of Bruce and the best GK in the division.

3. Vegas -  They will have a bounce back season, but I don't see them as a legitimate cup contender anymore.

4. Calgary - Huberdeau will find out real quick he doesn't have the offensive support that he had in Florida and I think will struggle playing western brand hockey.

5. Los Angeles - let down season.

6. Seattle - Meh

7. San Jose - LOL

[Gawdzukes]

6 minutes ago, Trebreh said:

1. Edmonton - ONLY because of Mcottery

2. Vancouver - We have a more solid balance lineup, a full season of Bruce and the best GK in the division.

3. Vegas -  They will have a bounce back season, but I don't see them as a legitimate cup contender anymore.

4. Calgary - Huberdeau will find out real quick he doesn't have the offensive support that he had in Florida and I think will struggle playing western brand hockey.

5. Los Angeles - let down season.

6. Seattle - Meh

7. San Jose - LOL

[VanCan2023]

On 8/5/2022 at 2:30 PM, NoBigNeil said:

I don't think Lehner had even made the playoffs without a legitimate goaltender to split games with (I.e Fleury)

Keeping Lehner over Fleury is almost as bad as Pittsburgh keeping Murray over Fleury. It's time Vegas starts to feel the retool/rebuild faze for the first time.  

[IBatch]

This division is very tough to predict.   Overall it's made modest improvements but not by much let's be real. 

 

LA lol...not there yet, i actually doubt they make the playoffs but should be a bubble team, Blake's re-tool is paying dividends.

 

CAL ... isn't as good.   Also we all know that Markstrom isn't going to take them far into the playoffs.    Not unless they have a good back-up that splits games in the regular season.    JH mitigates some things ... Tanev ... well he also went down.    They are worse then last season. 

 

Vegas..screwed the pooch completely with Eichel,  not that he isn't a good player because he is, but lost all so much depth, no longer a lock.

 

EDM.    For sure the front runner to win the division.    Almost a lock really.  Voted for them.   Kane signing ... Hyman ...  RNH... their D is flawed like ours,  goaltending a question mark but still, this will be a very good regular season team. 

 

VAN.   Modest improvements like LA.   With Miller id say we are a lock for a top three finish, decent chance at second, odds of first depend on EDM and one of McDavid or Drasaitl missing significant time.   Suspect 2-4 finish.   Without Miller i'm not going to hypothesize, not sure EP is ready for that role yet.   But decent odds even if we trade Miller. 

 

ANA...still rebuilding, doubt they are there yet but never know for sure.   Zegras was something else wasn't he?  And Gibson was like Demko for years while they sucked.   He bounces back could be a wild card bubble team.

 

Seattle...nice to have a team to beat up on, taking ARI spot.  

 

Reality is, hockey rarely follows the script.   IF we are the team we saw under Bruce, for sure we are a lock for the post season.     A lot of what we needed was addressed with the forward group.   Our PP was dynamite down the stretch, our PK improved...if that gets better which it should, not much to worry about.   8-11th winning percentage depending on what sample size you believe ... 11th overall since Bruce took over - final stretch push 8th.   8th pushes us into the conversation of a deep playoff run. 

 

SJ... needs a full rebuild and is going to have a lot of pain in their future, much like we did when JB came in.   Hertl lol i suppose he plays half the role the Sedins did .. 5 years at least before we even have to think about worrying about them. 

 

 

 

Edited August 7, 2022 by IBatch

[Dazzle]

On 8/4/2022 at 5:49 PM, Ilya Mikheyev said:

sign me up for homertown mayor but I think the Canucks will win the division this year if the Miller contract isn't a cloud over the whole team

 

- Calgary lost their two best players. Yes - they replaced the star power with Hubby - but that guy already has hinted twice about only staying the season. They were a tight team last year, but could that fall apart? Still depends if they make another trade with their overstock of D. They don't really have 4 top-6 wingers yet, could change

 

- Edmonton took a huge risk signing Campbell - who has pretty poor high danger chance stats... Critique Toronto's D all you want but have you seen Edmonton's...? I think they could win the division based on McDavid & Leon alone but their defense is pretty bad and I think Campbell is gonna have pretty bad stats next year.

 

- Vegas...well see my post above. No depth.

 

- LA - good chance they win the div, especially with the addition of Fiala over D Brown. But Quick is 37 next year and has been wildly unpredictable already the last few years. Depends what Quick can handle and what steps the youngins take.

 

- San Jose - Noooooooo way Jose

 

- Anaheim - nOPE

 

- Seattle...is a bit of wildcard to me to. Can either of their goaltenders bounce back? Can Beniers and Wright take it to another level already next year? If they both do Seattle's forward depth takes a huge leap, but I kind of feel they're one more year away.

 

- Canucks - vastly improved their PK, incredibly deep on the wing now, didn't lose anything but haven't improved their right-sided D. They will improved their transition game a bit with Rathbone taking up the 3rd pairing and Bruce There It Is having a full coaching year

 

 

there's still time left in the off-season but I'd lock in my rankings, but as it sits rn I think:

 

Vancouver

LA

Edmonton

Calgary

Seattle

Anaheim

San Jose

 

 

I think this is a bigggg stretch. There are a lot of question marks about how much of an improvement this actually is, considering our PK wasn't that bad (under Boudreau). The changes will be about what you'd expect from last year.

[Ilya Mikheyev]

25 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

I think this is a bigggg stretch. There are a lot of question marks about how much of an improvement this actually is, considering our PK wasn't that bad (under Boudreau). The changes will be about what you'd expect from last year.

I agree it's a stretch on my part - and also the off-season isn't even over, a few more changes could happen. But I DO believe the pacific division is more wide open than the betting odds indicate. Lots and lots of question marks across the division. No singular elite team like Tampa, Carolina, Florida or Colorado in the division. I don't see Calgary keeping their level of play next year, but Huberdeau did surprisingly already re-sign, so I was wrong about that.

 

Out: Brad Hunt, Juho, Highmore | In: Kuzmenko, Mikheyev, Lazar, Joshua | is a fairly big upgrade up front and on the PK. 2022 Rathbone over Burroughs is a pretty big upgrade to zone exits/transition on the 3rd pairing. Martin is a "?" but Halak and Holtby have really struggled in their roles the past two years, both posting losing records. The top-4 right side definitely needs addressing tho, of course.

 

[Coconuts]

Calgary, they lost offense but improved their D

 

If anything with Weegar they'll give up less, thay D is gonna give teams fits under Sutter imo

 

Getting him and Huberdeau really salvaged things

 

I expect Edmonton to be a dominant regular season team offensively, LA to continue to improve, Vegas to bounce back if they can stay healthy, and for us to be in the mix 

Edited August 7, 2022 by Coconuts

[VegasCanuck]

The challenge is, all teams in this division have flaws. They have areas of weakness that "could" hold them back. Look at the lack of depth in Vegas, they really have very little past the top 6, and if Lehner struggles with health etc, they have no cap space to really address areas of weakness. 

 

I don't see the Canucks as the best overall lineup on the division, but probably one of the most balanced. 

[spook007]

We'll win it all.... stopping a bunch of negative nellies.... Bruce boys are going to tear the house down...maybe...

 

But since nobody really knows, and I'm a massive homer, I'm gonna go for the cup and all... Bring it on 

[70seven]

Edmonton will take the division.  They’ve upgraded the same team imo.  Better goaltending, Kane for the whole year… unsure of Klefbom status, but big addition to the back end if healthy.  McD and Drai will lead the league in scoring again. Can you outscore the Oil?
 

Vancouver.  Deeper forward group, better PK, team speed, and aggressiveness with FA adds.  Demko is the best goalie in the division and will have to be with no changes to the blue line. Pettersson prime to claim elite status. If they are able to minimize scoring chances through team defence, there’s more than enough scoring depth potential under Bruce’s offensive attacking system to make Van one of the top scoring teams in the conference. Special teams and health on the back end are keys to success.

 

Calgary.  Best depth on defence in the conference, and with Sutters systems… this club is hard to project with the overhaul of the top line, but I do think there’s enough depth scoring/checking matchups for this club to upset anyone in the league as they will play solid shutdown hockey.  PP is the key to putting wins together here… but I suspect scoring goals may become an issue. 
 

LA. Healthy Doughty, Fiala addition, young studs prime to breakout…. Goals against May be the Achilles heel here… but this is a deep and young team with veterans that still lead the way. Goaltending should be the weakest link.   If kids breakout, lookout!

 

Vegas.  Something about Eichel… idk.  Subtracting Paccioretty will hurt the PP.  Hit or miss season, but I don’t like the makeup of this aging/injury prone roster. 
 

Seattle.  This team couldn’t score last year.  They’ve added four top 6-9ers with Burakovski, Bjorkstrand, Wright, and Beniers.  If they can get better goaltending, this team should be a far tougher opponent. 

 

Anaheim.  adding Strome, Klingberg, McTavish, Vatrano… They should go streaking here and there, but lack of experience will hurt as the year moves along. can Gibson find his game?
 

SJ. Train wreck season.  No Burns, No depth anywhere. Decent top 6/PP will keep them in games occasionally, but I fully expect them to be at the bottom of the West. 

 

Overall probably the weakest division in hockey.  But I think Vancouver can finish top 3 in this mix.
 

 

 

[iinatcc]

On 8/5/2022 at 8:38 PM, Dr. Crossbar said:

The team was Top 10, Top 13, in a lot of categories after Bruce took over. We did improve this offseason too. Remove the terrible start with JB/Green ... we were a playoff team. 

 

No one really expected LA to be as good this quickly either. You can also apply that to us too. So, it works both ways. Vegas isn't the same Vegas either.

 

And I do remember Bruce saying he believes OEL and Garland will be much better in their second seasons here based on what he's seen in his career. Hopefully that happens.

 

We did get faster, also better on the PK with Mikheyev. Boeser is poised to bounce back. We've gotten better and grittier with Lazar and Joshua.  Added Kuzmenko ... also Spencer Martin ... we're a better team than people think.

 

I'm going to agree with those predicting a 2nd place finish behind the Oilers. 

 

 

 

 

 

Hmmm The Athletic doesn't seem to be so optimistic

 

https://theathletic.com/3475049/2022/08/04/nhl-team-rankings-offseason/

 

This article predicts the number of wins added (or lost per team)

 

If going by pure Wins and Losses this means Edmonton, Los Angels, and Calgary will take the Top 3 spots in the Pacific again.

Vancouver (that gain 1.3 wins) will surpass Vegas but both teams will still miss out with St. Louis and Dallas being the Wild card teams.

 

So the team could make the playoffs as a bubble team but I doubt it places #2 in the Pacific.

 

I think we are being over confident in how Vancouver could finish. The analysis I have seen so far indicates it's going to be a middle of the pack team. 

I also don't see how people can predict Vancouver will play as well as they did down the stretch while LA will take a step back. Considering Vancouver has just as much, if not more, question marks than LA.

Edited August 9, 2022 by iinatcc

[Herberts Vasiljevs]

People need to remember that Calagry was one of the luckiest teams injury-wise last year. And no matter how anyone wants to slice it, they are worse off without Tkachuk and Gaudreau (sorry @King Heffy ) - no matter how much Treliving has made the most of a bad situation. I expect them to finish 3rd at best. 

Edited August 9, 2022 by Herberts Vasiljevs

[Gurn]

Too soon to tell.

I did see a few posts talking about other teams goal tending, and I hope everyone remembers our back up tender is still very, very new at the job.

I think Spencer will be fine, but I don't know he will be fine.