[Proposal] Trade Miller to Florida

DownUndaCanuck · August 9, 2022

Lundell will be an untouchable star, dropped 40+ points in his first 60 games as a rookie, he's probably going to score at a 60-80 point pace for the next couple of seasons and the sky's the limit for him but he'll be in the 100 point crew before you know it. We have nothing to offer to get a guy like Lundell and Florida would be stupid to trade him now, for anyone. He'll probably end up better than Miller as early as next year.

Florida do have to make some moves being over 3M over the cap, and Hornqvist is the obvious cap dump, and the Canucks aren't the solution. They may need trade a pick to move him but they don't have a 1st round pick for ages. Other easy option is to trade Bennett for a pick back.

Hairy Kneel · August 10, 2022

On 8/8/2022 at 6:03 AM, Ghostsof1915 said:

Florida is already $3 Million over the cap. So this puts them at $7 million over.

So how are they affording him? Even retained they would be $4-5 over.

Florida does not even have a 1st round pick for the next 3 years. They don't even have a 3rd until 2024.

There's also no way Florida can afford him. Unless Miller is willing to sign for $5 million for 8 years.

Maybe we take on the Yandel buyout contract, 1M a year for three years (but a 5M cap hit this year). And we can drop the conditional 3rd.

If Lundell is untouchable then switch Lundell for Denisenko a very good playmaking forward 5'10 190lb. elite skating. But add back the conditional 3rd round puck.

Overall I think Florida should be in a win now mode. They desperately want to get out of TB's shadow. I think Miller's leadership could do that. But they would need to give something up.

I don't think they would have a problem resigning Miller with their tax breaks. They could move 18 year old Sam Bennet 3.5M?

ps Lindell one for one I would do.

Edited August 10, 2022 by Hairy Kneel

IBatch · August 14, 2022

On 8/10/2022 at 8:35 AM, Hairy Kneel said:

Maybe we take on the Yandel buyout contract, 1M a year for three years (but a 5M cap hit this year). And we can drop the conditional 3rd.

If Lundell is untouchable then switch Lundell for Denisenko a very good playmaking forward 5'10 190lb. elite skating. But add back the conditional 3rd round puck.

Overall I think Florida should be in a win now mode. They desperately want to get out of TB's shadow. I think Miller's leadership could do that. But they would need to give something up.

I don't think they would have a problem resigning Miller with their tax breaks. They could move 18 year old Sam Bennet 3.5M?

ps Lindell one for one I would do.

Enter an Annual Salary

Please enter an amount equal to or above the league minimum salary of $700,000.

Compare Taxes of Two Teams

Florida Panthers

(36.58% x $8,500,000)

$3,109,300

Vancouver Canucks

(53.00% x $8,500,000)

$4,505,000

Difference in Tax Paid

$1,395,700

Basically Florida could offer Miller 7.105ish to match Vancouver's 8.5... They still would have a tough time jamming him in. But it is a good example of their and TBs competitive advantage when it comes to signing guys. Stamkos at 8.5 looked like a steal ...well in TO they'd need to be 10, plus they couldn't do the extra year which bumps it up to over 11... anyone who thinks these guys "bought in" or "took a discount", it does appear that way at face value but they didn't. TO's "overspending" reverse wise doesn't look so bad in comparison either. Same with SJ, same with even JBs deals aside from LE.

Hairy Kneel · August 14, 2022

2 hours ago, IBatch said:

Enter an Annual Salary
Please enter an amount equal to or above the league minimum salary of $700,000.

Compare Taxes of Two Teams

Florida Panthers

(36.58% x $8,500,000)

$3,109,300

Vancouver Canucks

(53.00% x $8,500,000)

$4,505,000

Difference in Tax Paid

$1,395,700

Basically Florida could offer Miller 7.105ish to match Vancouver's 8.5... They still would have a tough time jamming him in. But it is a good example of their and TBs competitive advantage when it comes to signing guys. Stamkos at 8.5 looked like a steal ...well in TO they'd need to be 10, plus they couldn't do the extra year which bumps it up to over 11... anyone who thinks these guys "bought in" or "took a discount", it does appear that way at face value but they didn't. TO's "overspending" reverse wise doesn't look so bad in comparison either. Same with SJ, same with even JBs deals aside from LE.

I don't know why that's not considered cap circumvention. It's a tax irregularity that could lead to Florida and TB buying their way to continuous championships.

IBatch · August 14, 2022

Just now, Hairy Kneel said:

I don't know why that's not considered cap circumvention. It's a tax irregularity that could lead to Florida and TB buying their way to continuous championships.

I've been beating this drum for a few years now. To me it's the most important thing the NHL needs to figure out. Really what they should do is make the cap based on net pay or provide extra or less cap on the highest taxed and lowest taxed teams. Maybe bring it to the 43% mark or something (a lot of teams after the six with no state taxes, have very low state taxes). Miller lost over 800k each years he's played with us. Sure he knows that was a great investment as his next deal is going to be so massive ... but we'd have to pay him over 10 to match a 8.5 deal in six US teams ... 9.5 to match a bunch of others. Yes the league needs to address this.

Alflives · August 14, 2022

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

I've been beating this drum for a few years now. To me it's the most important thing the NHL needs to figure out. Really what they should do is make the cap based on net pay or provide extra or less cap on the highest taxed and lowest taxed teams. Maybe bring it to the 43% mark or something (a lot of teams after the six with no state taxes, have very low state taxes). Miller lost over 800k each years he's played with us. Sure he knows that was a great investment as his next deal is going to be so massive ... but we'd have to pay him over 10 to match a 8.5 deal in six US teams ... 9.5 to match a bunch of others. Yes the league needs to address this.

Our dollar is worth 20% less. So the guys getting paid on US funds have 20% more purchase power up here. An 8.5 deal is actually over 10. Guys like US markets because they can live in total anonymity. And warmer weather is some spots.

Gurn · August 14, 2022

11 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Our dollar is worth 20% less. So the guys getting paid on US funds have 20% more purchase power up here. An 8.5 deal is actually over 10. Guys like US markets because they can live in total anonymity. And warmer weather is some spots.

Now all you have to do is note that stuff up here costs more than in the states and see that the '20% more purchase power' doesn't really exist

JM_ · August 14, 2022

9 minutes ago, gurn said:

Now all you have to do is note that stuff up here costs more than in the states and see that the '20% more purchase power' doesn't really exist

none of these guys are shopping at an Independent. I doubt that matters much to them.

Edited August 14, 2022 by JM_

Gurn · August 14, 2022

12 minutes ago, JM_ said:

none of these guys are shopping at an Independent. I doubt that matters much to them.

If money didn't matter Miller would be signed, already.

IBatch · August 17, 2022

On 8/8/2022 at 9:50 AM, iinatcc said:

Well Calgary got a 1st round pick (well 2025) but still something that give them a future and it's a good deal not a jackpot but Calgary is in their window and Vancouver isn't.

But I think the bigger point is I don't think Vancouver isn't going to get a Top Prospect + 1st round Pick for Miller. Maybe in the trade deadline a team could offer that but only if teams really get desperate and there's a bidding war.

Thing is that's Millers exact value as a rental. A grade A prospect (top 30), and a late first plus maybe a 2nd or 3rd to boot with retention. TO media was willing to do Kerfoot, their two best

prospects (former 15th overall and a second rounder - both B level guys though) and their first. Kerfoot of course their 3rd line guy, Pearson type cap hit with one year left (this season).

At this point Florida is a contender. Not saying Miller will go there. But if he did they'd have to part with something on their actual roster to make it fit (we'd retain of course) and their better young player(s), because they don't have anything in their system left or picks either really. So not a great fit. That said it's hockey and you never do know.

Florida also has no state tax ... means they could hypothetically, offer Miller a deal of 7.25 x 8 which is the same pay as Vancouver offering 8.75 x 8. Of course they'd have to trade away a roster player to fit him in. But could do it in their off season, a TDL deal with retention wouldn't be tough for any contender or top 20 ish teams ...

To me the sweet spot would be trading Miller to a bubble playoff team ... and that team missing the playoffs. That first becomes something of value then. Late firsts? Well just spend some time (anyone not you specifically) and you won't find many gems there. Sure sometimes, but just as often as second rounders really.

IBatch · August 17, 2022

On 8/14/2022 at 10:57 AM, Alflives said:

Our dollar is worth 20% less. So the guys getting paid on US funds have 20% more purchase power up here. An 8.5 deal is actually over 10. Guys like US markets because they can live in total anonymity. And warmer weather is some spots.

Cars ... well they are much cheaper in the US, even after you do the exchange rate. Boats and big toys too. Houses are irrelevant. Markets are what markets are and these guys can buy houses all over the world. Any angle you look at, these guys have much better buying power in the US.. Anyone who travels there, will notice how cheap everything is quickly. The incidentals like gas, food, clothing, are cheaper after the exchange in most cases ... not that it matters because what does it mean to these guys? 10k plus or minus a year either way - doesn't come close to touching the 825ish Miller for example, has lost each year he's been here. Sure was a great investment for him, because now he's getting a boffo legacy deal.

If it was a couple percentage points, it wouldn't be a topic. 36.4ish compared to 53.07....even on a 750k deal matters. On a 5-10 million dollar deal those numbers get massive quite quickly. No wonder guys in TB all insist on NMC's - because they don't want to leave "hey look at my team friendly deal, that's not really one unless i stay here".

This wasn't as big a deal when only a couple teams had no state tax. Now there are six. The six CALi and NY teams with their jock tax offset the five heavily taxes CAN teams. The bulk of the other US teams pay 40-42%...still a whopping difference... Used to only be four ... back during the Sedin era, taxes were the same in Van as Alberta ... which is actually slightly better then the high jock tax teams. At least it was more of a level playing field.

Since then more US players then ever have been drafted. Europe about the same, so it's slowly whittling away at good old Canadian boys chance at a job in the NHL. Now, like back then as well, most of the best Canadians play in US cities. Of course they should too because well, we only have seven teams. Salary discloser (and deals been done in US currency) knocked out two of our teams within a few years, and even Vancouver was in serious trouble until the Griffiths sold their stock ... and right until Aqua saved our bacon. Seattle was a real threat to us. Now Seattle and Vegas were added ... two more no state tax teams. Canadian teams no wonder we charge so much to see a game ... have to make an extra 20-30 million just to cover the payroll for the players!

Every deal JB signed came with a little extra ... had to dip into TB before Millers NTC kicked in (which he also shredded as was his right once we got him) to help with our cap. High taxes. TOs big deals ... well guess Tavares wanted to come but only if his tax was mitigated. Mathews. Does anyone really think he won't move back to the US? QHs... do we really think he's going to re-sign with us, Demko too...CAL pays 5% less then we do approx ... Florida pays over 16% less then Vancouver. Mathew T seriously cashed in. Johnny Hockey not as much but still cashed in big time. Compared to CAL. Huberdeau ... well what would that deal look like in Florida? A bit more palatable for sure - but he's used to low taxes isn't he. The more angles you look at this, the bigger the issue seems to be. WNP lost so many guys ... ouch. OTT too although they seemed cursed lol Those market's are tough one's... they'd need some massive draft luck to ever win a cup. Because nobody wants to stay, and they don't have tax relief like the majority of the US teams do. Sure they start drafting mostly Canadians. I would if i was them.

When has a Canadian team won a cup? Well right after salary discloser and that was mostly Roy's work. Since then... we simply have found it tougher and tougher to compete.

This is a problem. And think that the NHL needs to address it. Give some cap relief to certain teams, and or penalize others. Or simply make all contracts net pay and adjust the cap accordingly. So when a player is traded - he gets his net pay and that's it, not 825ish K like Miller lost or if traded back will gain back.

Edited August 17, 2022 by IBatch

IBatch · August 17, 2022

One more thing about taxes. Right now their are 4 teams at 53.07ish... TO, OTT, MTL and Van. The next bracket is 47.5- 49 ish that's ANA,SJ,LA, CAL,EDM,NYI,NYR, NJ and WNP just over 50% then a couple teams between 42% and 45% then you've got a bunch in the low 40's. that's the next bracket. Then you've got Seattle, Vegas, Dallas, NSH, FLD, TB sitting at 36 and change.

Those NTC/NMC become awfully important to guys in those cities. Sure he's they are athletes and want to win.

Alf and any interested - this is the deal i hypothesize that Miller will demand to stay in Vancouver. Check out what the same deal would be net pay like, in all the US cities.