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Canuck Pre-Season Playoff Betting Odds -- Lower Than I Expected

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JamesB

Canuck Playoff Probabilities  

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Pre-Season betting odds are now available from a lot of sources. A good source is Vegas Insider, which aggregates several underlying oddsmakers. See NHL Las Vegas Odds - Live Pro Ice Hockey Betting Lines (vegasinsider.com)

 

The aggregate has the Canucks at 19th in the NHL, 9th on the conference, and 5th in the Division. In short, just outside the playoffs. The Athletic has the Canucks in Tier 4 (a "bubble team"). There are 15 teams in higher tiers and the Canucks are one of 9 teams contending for the 16th spot and therefore unlikely to make the playoffs. 

 

In previous years I have generally agreed with the pre-season betting odds, which have been pretty similar to this for several seasons. For the previous 7 or 8 seasons, despite a lot of high draft picks, spending to the cap and a bunch of win-now moves, Benning never got the team past "bubble" pre-season status (or lower) and I generally agreed.

 

But this year I thought (and still think) things are different--with much better coaching and much better management and an improved team.

 

But the betting world and most outside experts see little difference between this team and the last several years in terms of pre-season expectations.  A typical  over/under is 92.5 pts, almost exactly what they got last year (92 pts).

 

I don't get it. Last year the team got off to bad start with a  historically bad PK. After a coaching and management change the team played at a rate that would have easily put them in the playoffs if they had maintained it for the full year. And the team definitely improved in the off-season, losing no-one of significance and adding some good players, including Mikheyev, Kuzmenko, and Lazar. And age-related decline should not be an issue yet. Add in young guys who should improve and a likely rebound from Boeser, and this team looks better than the team that played well above the playoff bar for the latter 2/3 of the season last year. 

 

So, for the first time in a long time, I strongly disagree with the pre-season betting odds.  

 

What is going on with outside evaluations. Or am I over-estimating this year's team. 

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Well, recency bias being what it is, I think there's at least some validity to this:

- same defense with no improvement in area of weakness (RD, until Hughes suggests otherwise);

- overkill in stacking the forward group (Lazar and Mikheyev will help the PK, but we went above and beyond since we have 10 top-6 caliber forwards);

- Demko is what he is; of course Martin could steal games on nights that TD is off but it's no guarantee given small sample size; 

- Bruce "there it is'd" his way up the standings for us, but maybe oddsmakers just don't see the team being as red-hot to end the season as they were?

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I voted very likely due to:

Goalie:  Demko with Spenser is better than prior two years.

Defense:  Looks no improvement, however, if the players health and the young prospects improved, there might be better.

Forward:  Looks much better.

Coach:   More confident with BB.

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1 hour ago, -Vintage Canuck- said:

I don't think the Canucks will finish top 3 in their divison, but I could see them making the playoffs via wild card.

Exactly my thoughts.

 

I think they'll be around 4 and the wild card ain't coming from the Pacific.

 

The Pacific is a borderline AHL division.

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50 minutes ago, Qwags said:

Making playoffs shouldn't be the goal. Winning the Cup is.

Of course that's the ultimate goal, but show me a team that missed the playoffs and then immediately won the cup the next year?  

 

Colorado just spent 3 years banging their head against the wall in the playoffs before they won it.  

Tampa did the same...  Blues and Washington were middling playoff teams for a decade before they won it.  

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I see Canucks at -140 to make the playoffs (meaning you have to bet $140 to win $100)...  good odds for the team, but not good odds for my pocket book to make the bet.  

 

As far as the points line, they have the Canucks at over/under 94.5 points for the season.  

 

Of note:  Demko is 30 to 1 to win the Vezina...  enticing.  

 

I'm wondering where people make their bets?  I know that BCLC has their betting section but Canucks will be crazy juiced on there.  Wanna place a couple of fun bets on a non-Vancouver centric betting site. 

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2 hours ago, -Vintage Canuck- said:

I don't think the Canucks will finish top 3 in their divison, but I could see them making the playoffs via wild card.

Gonna disagree there Vintage.  I think the Canucks will exceed expectations this year and finish top 2 in the division.

 

 

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1 hour ago, VancouverHabitant said:

Of course that's the ultimate goal, but show me a team that missed the playoffs and then immediately won the cup the next year?  

 

Colorado just spent 3 years banging their head against the wall in the playoffs before they won it.  

Tampa did the same...  Blues and Washington were middling playoff teams for a decade before they won it.  

Jim Rutherford's very own Carolina Hurricanes missed the playoffs in 2003 and 2004, and then went on win the cup in 2006 (2005 was cancelled due to the lockout).  They then proceeded to miss the playoffs the very next year after winning the cup in 2007 and even in 2008...

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Canucks will be in the mix for the third divisional spot or a wildcard spot. This division isn't as weak as folks would like to believe and we're far from a surefire playoff team. 

 

Recency bias plays a role, as do homer glasses. 

 

Calgary salvaged their offseason and should be in the mix for a top 2 spot. 

 

Regular season wonder or not Edmonton will also be in the mix.

 

LA comfortably made the playoffs last season and they did some good work in the offseason. They've got a good mix of youth, prime aged talent, and cup winning vets.

 

Anaheim likely doesn't make it but with Gibson in net I won't write them off, they made some interesting additions. 

 

Vegas almost made the playoffs last season with a lineup that'd been decimated by injury most of the season. Their goaltending is a question mark but they've got the bones of a good team. Should be in the playoff mix.

 

San Jose is likely stuck in no man's land but you never know. Still good enough to take points off every team in the division though.

 

Seattle likely sits near the bottom but is a dark horse imo. If you actually take a peek at their roster they've got a pretty good selection of players who can fit into their top 7 if you include their last two top picks. If their D can perform better and Grubauer performs better they could be in the mix. Look for them to try and improve their defense going forward. Like San Jose they should be good enough to take points off every other team.

 

So I reckon we're jockeying with at least four other teams for a divisional spot, more if you consider a wildcard.

Edited by Coconuts
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19 hours ago, CanuckRookieFan said:

The fact that oddmakers are telling people Canucks won't make the play offs is laughable. Since when does a top 5 forward group and top 5 goalie group won't make the playoffs? Odd makers really missed the mark on the Canucks this year.

top 5 forward group based on what? production? coz they ain't top 5.. top 5 goalie group based on what? GAA SVV% etc we ain't up there demko is very good.. but he doesn't seem capable of handling more than 50 games a season.. he was completely burnt out in march.. can Martin handle 25 games a season?? we have a decent shot but it's far from guaranteed

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On 9/17/2022 at 1:56 AM, CanuckRookieFan said:

The fact that oddmakers are telling people Canucks won't make the play offs is laughable. Since when does a top 5 forward group and top 5 goalie group won't make the playoffs? Odd makers really missed the mark on the Canucks this year.

odd makers also predicted Canucks wouldn't make the playoffs last season. And they were right.

I think we have to stop thinking we know more than the odd makers who probably have a better methodology than us here in predicting playoff chances.

So I wouldn't call them laughable especially since they were right last year about the Canucks. 

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21 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

top 5 forward group based on what? production? coz they ain't top 5.. top 5 goalie group based on what? GAA SVV% etc we ain't up there demko is very good.. but he doesn't seem capable of handling more than 50 games a season.. he was completely burnt out in march.. can Martin handle 25 games a season?? we have a decent shot but it's far from guaranteed

Exactly and let's not forget the improvements other teams made this off-season. That is also a factor here. Are the Canucks better? Sure 

But what about the teams that finished ahead of them in the Standings last season.

 

For now I see LA and Oilers improving.

 

Flames is about even you lose two super star wingers but add to your center and defense depth. Vegas has goaltending issues but they still have a lot of talent on that team and they could come out charging if everyone is healthy. 

 

For the record I voted 40% to 60% making the playoffs. 

I can see Canucks finishing 1st this season but I can also see them finishing 5th with the same odds.

Edited by iinatcc
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Canucks needs to show, that the uptick in form wasn't just a flash in the pan....

 

On paper the team looks strong at forward position, but they need to make it count in games as well...

 

Think its likely they make the playoffs, but it remains to be seen if they make it as a threat or just as canon fodder...

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