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Recent NHL history of 0-3-0 starts

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-AJ-

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Going even further, the 2009/10 Canucks had an 0-3-0 start and found a way to comfortably win the division title and make it to the second round.  Granted, they were in a much better state than this current team, however.

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51 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

Any long-time fan knows how brutal a poor start can be to your playoff hopes. Heck anyone following the Canucks last year experienced it. I decided to take a deeper look at teams that have started 0-3-0 and found that since 2015-16, 15 teams have had the record after three games and I compiled them into a list with some notes.

 

Here's what I found:

863989c2ed02f82a916e445b41d6fac8.png

 

Many of the teams with this start are quite bad, but it's interesting to find some decent ones. Most of the good ones went on big winning streaks shortly after the poor start. 

 

Three teams with poor starts here had big playoff success, with the 2019-20 Dallas Stars (starting 1-7-1 and 0-3-0) making it to the Stanley Cup Final and the 2015-16 Pittsburgh Penguins (0-3-0 start) and 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche (1-3-0 start) winning the Stanley Cup.

 

As noted, the average of the 0-3-0 teams is 83.26 points, which, while not horrible, is definitely pretty far outside of a playoff spot.

Good analysis to stop folks from jumping off bridges.  Mathematically it is really the 20 game mark where standing get pretty baked in.  Lower numbers of games are still too volatile as 3 game winning or losing streaks are exceedingly common.  We would hardly raise our eyebrows if it happened mid season.


It would be interesting to see if there are “special” causes like injuries to key players that explain some of the turnarounds like it did St. Louis when they went from crap at Christmas to the playoffs.

 

What it really means is that the team has to play catch up and find a way to go at LEAST 3 games over .500 over the next month or so.  If a team is more than 4 points out of a playoff spot after 20 games… they have a surprisingly low likelihood of catching up, especially if there is a pack of teams between them and the playoff bar that they would need to outplay ALL of.

 

 

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I appreciate the sentiment, but for me the concern is not about the record itself, but how they got there. If they were 0-3-0 but looked super competitive throughout the entirety of each game I’d definitely be concerned, but I understand hockey is a chaotic sport and sometimes things don’t break your way.

 

It’s the fact that they’ve choked away multi point leads in every game. It feels like the same issues from the past 3 years once again, there is something wrong with the core. I don’t know if it’s the mix, there are character issues or what, but it’s like the same old song and dance pointing to something deeper off the ice.

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10 minutes ago, McBackup said:

I appreciate the sentiment, but for me the concern is not about the record itself, but how they got there. If they were 0-3-0 but looked super competitive throughout the entirety of each game I’d definitely be concerned, but if understand hockey is a chaotic sport and sometimes things don’t break your way.

 

It’s the fact that they’ve choked away multi point leads in every game. It feels like the same issues from the past 3 years once again, there is something wrong with the core. I don’t know if it’s the mix, their are character issues or what, but it’s like the same old song and dance pointing to something deeper off the ice.

It looks like they are terrified of making mistakes when they have the lead, which inevitably leads to making mistakes and blowing leads. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. I don't know if this was coached in to them, but Boudreau seems like a very encouraging, positive guy and I would have hoped that fear of making mistakes and sitting back on a lead would have gone away by now. Maybe tonight's the night...

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1 hour ago, McBackup said:

I appreciate the sentiment, but for me the concern is not about the record itself, but how they got there. If they were 0-3-0 but looked super competitive throughout the entirety of each game I’d definitely be concerned, but I understand hockey is a chaotic sport and sometimes things don’t break your way.

 

It’s the fact that they’ve choked away multi point leads in every game. It feels like the same issues from the past 3 years once again, there is something wrong with the core. I don’t know if it’s the mix, there are character issues or what, but it’s like the same old song and dance pointing to something deeper off the ice.

The post was meant to be more factual than an optimistic twist, but I admit that I do tend to try to see the positive side of things, so that may have biased my post. There are also a lot of pretty bad teams with an 0-3-0 start, so it's not exactly good news.

 

To your point though, I do think it's worth considering the details of how the games are going and also potential reasons, such as injuries, for impacting team performance. Maybe it's a "copium" take, but at the very least, we are scoring goals and getting leads--we're just failing miserably to hold them and clearly have a mentality issue with regards to holding leads.

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Needing stats for 3 games to start the season on road with 0-3-0 NHL history.  They have yet to play a game at home.   In fact, in last three seasons, they have 4 or more games on the road to start their seasons.  If you go back to 2018 season was the last time, they started their season at home then followed by 6 games on the road after just one game at home.  2019 was 2 games on the road. So, it's 4 seasons and counting opening their season on the road.

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It's a no-win situation.

- You can't trade when only 7 teams in the league have over $4 million in cap space.

- Your players aren't in demand because they are underachieving. You don't sell when the demand is low.

- You can't trade draft picks and players to get better players, because then you have no future prospects to develop.

 

The best is status quo. Maybe see if anyone garners interest at the trade deadline and hopefully get the best you can.

 

Then do the slow way, and draft the best players you can. And through attrition and hopefully a new crop of players you get a solid core.

The sad thing is, that's going to take years.

 

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, -AJ- said:

Any long-time fan knows how brutal a poor start can be to your playoff hopes. Heck anyone following the Canucks last year experienced it. I decided to take a deeper look at teams that have started 0-3-0 and found that since 2015-16, 15 teams have had the record after three games and I compiled them into a list with some notes.

 

Here's what I found:

863989c2ed02f82a916e445b41d6fac8.png

 

Many of the teams with this start are quite bad, but it's interesting to find some decent ones. Most of the good ones went on big winning streaks shortly after the poor start

 

Three teams with poor starts here had big playoff success, with the 2019-20 Dallas Stars (starting 1-7-1 and 0-3-0) making it to the Stanley Cup Final and the 2015-16 Pittsburgh Penguins (0-3-0 start) and 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche (1-3-0 start) winning the Stanley Cup.

 

As noted, the average of the 0-3-0 teams is 83.26 points, which, while not horrible, is definitely pretty far outside of a playoff spot.

Though the question, are are the Canucks one of these good teams?

The problem with the Canucks though is that the Avs, Pens, and Stars aren't comparable teams. The Avs and Pens are teams that know how to win and the Stars (while some underwhelming seasons) have appeared in the playoffs more often than not.

 

Canucks are not that team. 

 

Also the now 0-3-1 record were results in blowing multi goal leads which kind of questions the psyche of the whole team.

 

 

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