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[Value of] Thatcher Demko


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Alright, alright, before you go get your pitchforks this isn't a trade proposal. 

 

We're not completely off the rails yet but we're trending in the wrong direction. If we don't turn things around quick there's a good chance we'll be out of the playoff race before Christmas, and if last season demonstrated anything it's how hard it is to make up ground in this league. It's also unlikely what we've witnessed will be our only losing stretch this season, every team has them, it's just top teams have fewer of them. Planned or not, a rebuild or retool may be thrust upon management and we may see players willing to walk at the end of the season (Horvat, Kuzmenko, Schenn) or be traded (possibly everyone, but I'd argue everyone but Hughes, Pettersson, and Podz and there are those who'd argue trading some of those guys). I used to include Demko on my personal list of untouchables, but depending on how things go over the next season or two, I dunno.. 

 

Demko's got three seasons left after this one on a stellar 5M deal, his deal was one of Benning's better pieces of work. But his deal also takes him through the meat of his prime, and depending on how things go leading up to the end of his deal I question whether he'd want to re-sign. Goalies, like D, tend to age better than forwards, particularly the really good goalies. But still, hard to say what Demko will want or where we'll be as a team. Now, there's a lot of what if's but that's hockey speculation. I just don't see us being contenders sooner than later, but my projection is just that, a projection. 

 

Trading Demko would necessitate bringing in a tender, which can be tricky to do, but depending on what a potential rebuild/retool looks like, I dunno if he'd wanna stay. His next deal is a ways off, but hey, four seasons will fly by before you know it. 

 

What do you reckon his value is? What would a team pay? What would be an acceptable cost? I think it's more likely he ends up re-signed down the road but hey, never say never. If this team continues to miss the playoffs some guys are eventually going to have enough. 

 

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Big goalie trades aren't seen too often, but you definitely see it.  Goalie value largely relies on consistency, though.  One or two good seasons don't give you great trade value.  The only goalie who got traded for a 1st round pick this year was M.A. Fleury, who will probably make the Hall of Fame after he retires.  He has had two good years and got paid for it (but still a VERY team-friendly contract), but I'd say he's only worth a middle 1st rounder.  Note that he's had a poor start to this season.

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11 minutes ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

Big goalie trades aren't seen too often, but you definitely see it.  Goalie value largely relies on consistency, though.  One or two good seasons don't give you great trade value.  The only goalie who got traded for a 1st round pick this year was M.A. Fleury, who will probably make the Hall of Fame after he retires.  He has had two good years and got paid for it (but still a VERY team-friendly contract), but I'd say he's only worth a middle 1st rounder.  Note that he's had a poor start to this season.

Yeah, historically goalies don't get a ton. Even getting the 10th for Schneider was huge. 

 

But he's a top notch tender on a extremely team friendly deal, he's consistently been ranked as one of the better tenders in the league over the last couple seasons and he's still relatively young as far as goalies go. I dunno, I wonder.

 

It's also worth noting that if the idea is to rebuild or retool, Demko can singlehandedly keep you from getting higher picks. I'm not advocating for tanking, the lottery killed old school tanking (thanks Edmonton), but if we get to the point where we're staring at a rebuild or retool it's worth considering. 

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A first and a prospect I bet. Not worth trading as of right now. Very good chance he’s a great goalie for the next 10 years. Hell. Andersen is in his 40’s and crushing it. Goalie don’t decline like players unless theirs injuries involved.

 

I also doubt we have a goalie developed by the time his contract is up. If we enter a rebuild and Demko is traded it better include a great goalie prospect coming back. A first just won’t cut it for us.

 

Im scared that this team is showing it’s true Colours. I honestly don’t think I can do another rebuild just to fail again 

 

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1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I'd rather keep Demko for our rebuild.  Goalies are hard to find and they tend to peak later in their careers.  They also can play for longer periods of time.  Demko looks like the type of goalie who can play at peak level into his mid to late 30's, we can have him for another decade.  

Disagree, if we're going to actually rebuild there is no point keeping Demko. By the time the team is ready to compete, he will no longer be cost controlled. I say we take our chances that one of our goalie prospects develops or we get goalie through UFA or trade. Demko's probably at close to his peak value right now and we should sell high if we can. He'll also likely hurt our draft spot. 

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1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I'd rather keep Demko for our rebuild.  Goalies are hard to find and they tend to peak later in their careers.  They also can play for longer periods of time.  Demko looks like the type of goalie who can play at peak level into his mid to late 30's, we can have him for another decade.  

Hes a UFA once his contract is up. We are just trying to do asset management. 

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16 minutes ago, whysoserious said:

Disagree, if we're going to actually rebuild there is no point keeping Demko. By the time the team is ready to compete, he will no longer be cost controlled. I say we take our chances that one of our goalie prospects develops or we get goalie through UFA or trade. Demko's probably at close to his peak value right now and we should sell high if we can. He'll also likely hurt our draft spot. 

Agreed. Don't wanna be like ANA where they potentially let Gibson's value tank 

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I think Demko's the one part of the puzzle you don't trade away, and everyone here will grant him a few bad games. Problem is we have no one else in the system who has Vezina-potential. Can Silvos be that guy one day? Maybe but he's still very young and unproven. 

 

I'd hang on to Demko even in the midst of a rebuild. He's 26 years old now and sure, getting older, but goalies can get good in their early 30s so I'd hang on to him and hitch my wagon to Demko. If we're retooling or rebuilding, we might be ready to contend in 5 years time and that may well be Demko's true prime.

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Colorado would probably be our best trading partner. They are tight against the cap, and neither Gerogiev or Francouz have been playing that great to start the season. 
 

To Colorado: Demko and Hoglander

To Vancouver: Gerogiev, O’Connor, Kaut and a 1st

 

 

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1 hour ago, whysoserious said:

Disagree, if we're going to actually rebuild there is no point keeping Demko. By the time the team is ready to compete, he will no longer be cost controlled. I say we take our chances that one of our goalie prospects develops or we get goalie through UFA or trade. Demko's probably at close to his peak value right now and we should sell high if we can. He'll also likely hurt our draft spot. 

He doesn't seem to be hurting it right now as we are dead last.  As long as our current defence is in front of him we should be fine for a stealth tank for Bedard...

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9 hours ago, Devron said:

A first and a prospect I bet. Not worth trading as of right now. Very good chance he’s a great goalie for the next 10 years. Hell. Andersen is in his 40’s and crushing it. Goalie don’t decline like players unless theirs injuries involved.

 

I also doubt we have a goalie developed by the time his contract is up. If we enter a rebuild and Demko is traded it better include a great goalie prospect coming back. A first just won’t cut it for us.

 

Im scared that this team is showing it’s true Colours. I honestly don’t think I can do another rebuild just to fail again 

 

The scary thing is like it or not. It will probably be the only real way to get a winning club.

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keep assets this season like Demko, Hughes Petey, would be interested in resigning Horvat, he is actually giving it hard right now, move miller and boeser for right shot d partner for higher young gritty 3C and 1 gritty vet who knows how to win, then in summer at draft if we do not get 1st OA do something like Petey + Van 1st for first OA for beddard assuming we have a high first, this will also give us some cap space and looks like a retool with a younger core, essentially building around Hughes and beddard, possibly keeping Demko

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3 hours ago, Alflives said:

Wasn’t the ideal time to trade Demko after the Bubble playoffs?  Re-sign Marky And Trade Demko for a lot.  

That was an option… either way was a fine idea really.

 

If we rebuild, keeping him wouldn’t make sense.  He isn’t likely going to re-sign to a rebuilding team that he just got shellacked for years playing for.

 

As far as value, this is a deal where we could be patient and opportunistic.  If a contending team gets an injury to their starting goalie, we could make a (relative) killing.

 

A good return would be a really blue chip prospect plus a 1st which is likely to be late as it would be a good team.  Maybe ask for a 1st the following year and hope that team takes a bit of a dive. 

 

 

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