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[Discussion] Do You Have the Stomach For a Rebuild?

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Warhippy

Would You Accept A Rebuild?  

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11 minutes ago, IBatch said:

It's very reasonable, to do a COL style re-set to the rebuild or even EDM one really.   EDM did keep RNH.   There is nothing saying that we can't trade everyone older then EP (including or not including Demko) that we can.   These guys get it.   Or at least i hope they would ... not entirely sure because Toews seemed dumber then a bag of cement that it was his and Kanes deal that cratered their team.   Anyways, it should start with a trade.  Horvat is the likely candidate at this point. 

I suppose that depends on how you view what happened in Colorado, there's a bit of misconception about that team. https://www.milehighhockey.com/2022/7/1/23188653/colorado-avalanche-were-not-an-example-of-a-rebuild

 

A lot of thinks went right for that squad, from Makar turning out how he did to the Duchene deal going the way it did. Also, having had high picks in both Duchene and Ryan O'Reilly develop into players worth trading helped. 

 

We could ideally try for a shorter term rebuild though, I agree. But when you enter a rebuild you're signed up for the long haul, could very well take longer. I think it'd be worth rolling the dice on. 

 

I do think Horvat ends up being traded, I think he's ready for a fresh start somewhere else. 

Edited by Coconuts
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1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Ten years ago we just won another Presidents trophy, and aside form the regular season, the follow up to a cup final was underwhelming (and, well Quick was unbelievable that cup run too).   That said .. we did miss after that so close enough.   Not the only teams to do that.   Some teams win cups and miss entirely, or go to the final and miss to (LA did).   

 

Don't know what the exact right thing to do is.   But have been saying for awhile now we need a trader like Pat Quin or hate to say it, even Keenan to come in and do the things needed to make things better for later at this point.   I'm not at all worried about Demko, EP or QHs.     All three are committed to Vancouver like it or not, for the next 4/5 years.  Sure it's nice to have good players.   None of these guys have done much yet other then potential, and well some stuff i suppose.   So far Courtnall did more in the post season.  As have others many others.   And Demko isn't Luongo either.    Goaltending is one of the easier positions to fill.  And one of the most fickle too.    Maybe we should be trading him.   I don't know.  

 

Have zero issue with going full tank either.   But think the smart thing to do is start with ONE hockey trade.  Horvat is the obvious choice at this point as far as decent returns go. 

followed by Brock....

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41 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

I suppose that depends on how you view what happened in Colorado, there's a bit of misconception about that team. https://www.milehighhockey.com/2022/7/1/23188653/colorado-avalanche-were-not-an-example-of-a-rebuild

 

A lot of thinks went right for that squad, from Makar turning out how he did to the Duchene deal going the way it did. Also, having had high picks in both Duchene and Ryan O'Reilly develop into players worth trading helped. 

 

We could ideally try for a shorter term rebuild though, I agree. But when you enter a rebuild you're signed up for the long haul, could very well take longer. I think it'd be worth rolling the dice on. 

 

I do think Horvat ends up being traded, I think he's ready for a fresh start somewhere else. 

I agree on Horvat

It's funny how people used to talk abut needing to start winning before Horvat decides to walk.

Now that time has come , but many are afraid to pull the trigger on a move.

the writing was on the wall years ago

the time hath come, just as it was written

 

At least all of our parts aren't 32-33 years old with NMCs this time

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2 hours ago, Warhippy said:

So going back to 2004, here are the RHD we've drafted exactly 11 RHD.  We have been screaming for RHD since 2011/2012.  Like keyed in as one of the most insane needs in the organization outside of a right shooting centre.  Look at this list.  What is the single most valuable asset to have in this league right now?  RHD.  Large smooth skating minute eating RHD.  We've drafted 11 in 18 years and only 1 higher than the 5th round.  Of those drafted almost all of them were never offered a contract outside of junior

 

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=62603

 

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=83269

 

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=122621

 

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=122668

 

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=122853

 

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=145088

 

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=160385

 

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=180273

 

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=187372

 

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=233678

 

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=241808

 

The issue is as I have stated.  


We need the following.  We need therm to have size.  We need them durable and we need to have them 

 

Top pairing RHD.

Middle pairing RHD of size to eat minutes.

Minimum 2 quality fill in RHD prospects.

 

Middle and bottom pairing LHD of size to eat minutes

 

Top line RW

Middle 6 RW

tope flight RW prospect as our best option now is Boeser

 

Middle 6 LW

Bottom 6 LW

 

At this stage, to obtain those assets of the most critical importance, two top 4/top 2 large smooth skating RHD would cost assets we don't have and can't afford to give up.  Those large minute munching LHD?    Top line RW?  We do not have those assets.  To draft them means acquiring assets to do so in numbers to beat the odds.  To then develop them takes years and we haven't developed a single gd player in our organization worth speaking of since the Moose years and that crop that came into their own for the 2009-2012 runs of Kesler, Burrows, Bieksa, edler, Hansen

 

By the time we acquire the cap space and assets to actually say we have the pieces and depth in those positions we need; Pettersson will be nearly 30, Hughes as well.  We just don't have what it takes to obtain or retain them with our assets and cap space.

 

Does this suck?  hell yes it does.  But we can not ignore positions of need that are THAT important for 2 decades and pretend that we can just fill them in the bargain bin with 31 other teams wanting the EXACT same things with far more assets and cap space to obtain them

Agree 100% on this.

There were 2 decent LHD  prospects were we were picking last draft. 

A few of us were really high on drafting either of them Pickering and Bichel....  

either could probably cover the LHD  bottom to start in a couple of years, and eventually take over for OEL. 

Would have been a start, although not a RHD...

 

Went for another forward... odd choice to the time as we have load of forwards, and as we have found out, they are not too hard to obtain.

 

Until they start drafting D's by the bucket load and RHDs in particular, we will be going nowhere... They take longer to develop in general, so need to start there.

 

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10 minutes ago, lmm said:

I agree on Horvat

It's funny how people used to talk abut needing to start winning before Horvat decides to walk.

Now that time has come , but many are afraid to pull the trigger on a move.

the writing was on the wall years ago

the time hath come, just as it was written

 

At least all of our parts aren't 32-33 years old with NMCs this time

I was hoping we'd trade Miller and sign Horvat, now I'm resigned to the fact that it'd probably be best to just move them both. I don't see our rebuild being a quick turnaround, I figure if they want to let Pettersson run as a center they could find a stopgap to fit behind him. 

 

I think Bo's ready to go, and I wouldn't blame him. Most players don't want to stick on a loser forever, and we've been one most of his tenure here despite his best efforts. Miller's best remaining year would probably be wasted during a rebuild, and I question whether he'll be worth his money as he gets older. He'd probably be happier to be part of a team that's more competitive than us going forward. I don't think he, or the rest of the group, saw this coming. 

 

And yeah, the only real long-term contracts we're locked into are Miller's and OEL's and OEL should at least be serviceable til his is done despite his maybe being a bit overpaid for what he brings nowadays. Miller on the other hand, yeah, I'd ship him out for assets and try to take on a larger contract with less term coming back to make the deal work. I believe any Miller deal would necessitate taking cap back given how many teams are closer to being capped out than having 8M in spare cap. 

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I would like every one that thought I was nuts for tanking, and rebuilding to give me an heart or a mug of beer or something.

 

I feel that there have been few that beat the drum as hard as I, and I deserve some acknowledgement to this regards.

 

Sure I sounded nuts............but was I right!

 

 

Edited by J.I.A.H.N
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58 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

I suppose that depends on how you view what happened in Colorado, there's a bit of misconception about that team. https://www.milehighhockey.com/2022/7/1/23188653/colorado-avalanche-were-not-an-example-of-a-rebuild

 

A lot of thinks went right for that squad, from Makar turning out how he did to the Duchene deal going the way it did. Also, having had high picks in both Duchene and Ryan O'Reilly develop into players worth trading helped. 

 

We could ideally try for a shorter term rebuild though, I agree. But when you enter a rebuild you're signed up for the long haul, could very well take longer. I think it'd be worth rolling the dice on. 

 

I do think Horvat ends up being traded, I think he's ready for a fresh start somewhere else. 

People keep forgetting just how wealthy the Avs were when Sakic took over.  Much like Yzerman in Tampa.

 

Main pieces in place prior to 2014 prior to first full gm year:  Duchene, O'reilly, Barrie, Landeskog, 

 

Drafted while GM:  Mackinnon, Raantanen, Jost, Makar, Byram, Newhook.

 

Major trades as GM:  

O'Reilly + McGinn to Buffalo for Grigorenko, Zadorov, Compher, 2nd round pick (jeremy roy) 

 

Duchene to Ottawa for Hammond, Bowers, 1st round pick (Bowen Byram) 3rd round pick (Matthew Steingburg).  From Nashville Vladislav Kamenev, Samuel Girard, 2nd round pick (Fillip Hallander) 

 

2nd round pick to Washington for Grubauer and Brooks Orpik

 

3rd round pick to Florida for Brassard and 6th round pick (Nils Aman)

 

Nazem Kadri, Calle Rosen, 4rd round pick (jean luc foudy) from Toronto for Tyson Barrie, Alex Kerfoot, 6th round pick (Joe Miller)

 

Devon Toews from New York Islanders for 2021 2nd round pick (Janis Moser) and 2022 2nd round pick (Calle Odelius) 


Darcy Kuemper from Arizona for 2022 1st round pick (Reid Schaefer) and 2024 3rd round pick

 

Nico Sturm from Minnesota for Tyson Jost 

 

Arturri Lehkonen from Montreal for Justin Barron and 2024 2nd round pick

 

Andrew Cogliano from San Jose for 2024 5th round pick

 

It is obvious that in place were the MAJOR pieces of the core that became the basis for the trades that happened to make the team successful, Makar and Byram were all star picks.  Newhook was great; but being able to have Duchene, O'Reilly and Barrie on hand to start your tenure and being willing to trade them while retaining Landeskog was immensely beneficial.  This is to say that much of the success Sakic had was in place including that first Mackinnon year draft before he became the full GM.

 

We here in Vancouver do not have that option unless we are willing to commit to the same.  keeping Podkolzin, trading Hughes (barrie) Petterson (Duchene) and Horvat/Miller (O'Reilly)

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Seriously though..............

 

IMO, I posted a scenario that was pretty much scorched earth..........

 

What I did not do this time was go for all picks and focused on young picks that have been drafted in the past 3 years

 

I think it is fair to expect great returns on guys like Hughes, Pettersson, Demko, Miller, Boeser, Garland and Horvat

 

Yes you gut the team, yes you drop to the bottom, but your picks are great, and your returns will include picks, as well as Nemec, Juricek, Mercer, etc type picks

 

And you get so much cap relief, you can use it strategically. You must resist to go to the UFA market, until the very end, and use it to fill in with exactly what you need

 

for those few spots. Keeping in mind all the time that your young blue chippers will all want raises, so you must have an actual plan.

 

IMO, and after seeing NYR, LA, and Ottawa...........total rebuild time 3 to 5 years.............

 

That is when you spend a 1st round pick to get a particular player or Goalie, but not until

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28 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

I was hoping we'd trade Miller and sign Horvat, now I'm resigned to the fact that it'd probably be best to just move them both. I don't see our rebuild being a quick turnaround, I figure if they want to let Pettersson run as a center they could find a stopgap to fit behind him. 

 

I think Bo's ready to go, and I wouldn't blame him. Most players don't want to stick on a loser forever, and we've been one most of his tenure here despite his best efforts. Miller's best remaining year would probably be wasted during a rebuild, and I question whether he'll be worth his money as he gets older. He'd probably be happier to be part of a team that's more competitive than us going forward. I don't think he, or the rest of the group, saw this coming. 

 

And yeah, the only real long-term contracts we're locked into are Miller's and OEL's and OEL should at least be serviceable til his is done despite his maybe being a bit overpaid for what he brings nowadays. Miller on the other hand, yeah, I'd ship him out for assets and try to take on a larger contract with less term coming back to make the deal work. I believe any Miller deal would necessitate taking cap back given how many teams are closer to being capped out than having 8M in spare cap. 

Something around Miller to CAR for Morrow + (Drury would be nice but we may have to add at this point)... Bear can be some of the cap coming back as well. 

 

Patches comes off the books next season to cover Miller's raise.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

People keep forgetting just how wealthy the Avs were when Sakic took over.  Much like Yzerman in Tampa.

 

Main pieces in place prior to 2014 prior to first full gm year:  Duchene, O'reilly, Barrie, Landeskog, 

 

Drafted while GM:  Mackinnon, Raantanen, Jost, Makar, Byram, Newhook.

 

Major trades as GM:  

O'Reilly + McGinn to Buffalo for Grigorenko, Zadorov, Compher, 2nd round pick (jeremy roy) 

 

Duchene to Ottawa for Hammond, Bowers, 1st round pick (Bowen Byram) 3rd round pick (Matthew Steingburg).  From Nashville Vladislav Kamenev, Samuel Girard, 2nd round pick (Fillip Hallander) 

 

2nd round pick to Washington for Grubauer and Brooks Orpik

 

3rd round pick to Florida for Brassard and 6th round pick (Nils Aman)

 

Nazem Kadri, Calle Rosen, 4rd round pick (jean luc foudy) from Toronto for Tyson Barrie, Alex Kerfoot, 6th round pick (Joe Miller)

 

Devon Toews from New York Islanders for 2021 2nd round pick (Janis Moser) and 2022 2nd round pick (Calle Odelius) 


Darcy Kuemper from Arizona for 2022 1st round pick (Reid Schaefer) and 2024 3rd round pick

 

Nico Sturm from Minnesota for Tyson Jost 

 

Arturri Lehkonen from Montreal for Justin Barron and 2024 2nd round pick

 

Andrew Cogliano from San Jose for 2024 5th round pick

 

It is obvious that in place were the MAJOR pieces of the core that became the basis for the trades that happened to make the team successful, Makar and Byram were all star picks.  Newhook was great; but being able to have Duchene, O'Reilly and Barrie on hand to start your tenure and being willing to trade them while retaining Landeskog was immensely beneficial.  This is to say that much of the success Sakic had was in place including that first Mackinnon year draft before he became the full GM.

 

We here in Vancouver do not have that option unless we are willing to commit to the same.  keeping Podkolzin, trading Hughes (barrie) Petterson (Duchene) and Horvat/Miller (O'Reilly)

Aye, we aren't at the Avs starting point. The article I posted covers that pretty well. I don't think the Avs are good idea of what to try and emulate, what happened over their isn't typical and they weren't starting from scratch. They also got lucky while managing their assets well. 

 

There's misconception amongst some fans regarding where the Avs started and what their path to the cup looked like. 

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10 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Something around Miller to CAR for Morrow + (Drury would be nice but we may have to add at this point)... Bear can be some of the cap coming back as well. 

 

Patches comes off the books next season to cover Miller's raise.

 

 

Honestly, with Miller they'd probably win a cup. They're one of the best defensive teams in the league, they won the Jennings last year, I don't see Miller hurting them defensively too much. 

 

They're my pick to make the eastern final this year and that's without Miller. 

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3 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Honestly, with Miller they'd probably win a cup. They're one of the best defensive teams in the league, they won the Jennings last year, I don't see Miller hurting them defensively too much. 

 

They're my pick to make the eastern final this year and that's without Miller. 

Imagine adding both Miller and Patches to that team at some point this year... For nothing meaningful off their roster.

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5 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Aye, we aren't at the Avs starting point. The article I posted covers that pretty well. I don't think the Avs are good idea of what to try and emulate, what happened over their isn't typical and they weren't starting from scratch. They also got lucky while managing their assets well. 

 

There's misconception amongst some fans regarding where the Avs started and what their path to the cup looked like. 

Now, if we suck and manage to net Bedard this year or Carlson I guess.  Then start selling off assets next year and get a 2nd or 3rd overall pick.  Or even trade Hughes or Petterson to a team sucking this year and manage to get two very high picks this year I'd say we are on a possible place where we can start comparing our rebuild to that of the Avs

 

But for now, without having those initial low picks like Landeskog and Mackinnon we're kind of just starting

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2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Imagine adding both Miller and Patches to that team at some point this year... For nothing meaningful off their roster.

Them being in LTIR because of Pacioretty would cover both of their eventually making the roster wouldn't it?

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It's not if it's how? We have Dumb and Dumber for GM and Prez who have payed to get rid of Dickinson and spent $$$ long term on on future buyout candidates  Miller, Mikheyev, Brock Boeser we can't clear the cap to take others cap dumps to rebuild properly. 

 

They doubled down on JBs mess. 

 

This is what we get. 

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3 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Them being in LTIR because of Pacioretty would cover both of their eventually making the roster wouldn't it?

You gonna make me math right now? :angry:

 

I'm guessing they'd still need to clear some to fit both Miller and Patches.

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4 hours ago, Baggins said:

The problem is no rebuild method guarantees success. Many teams have tanked only to retank, and then retank again. Tanking doesn't guarantee anything. What actually gets you to contender status is building around your stars along with good coaching and systems that optimize your players strengths.

I question whether we truly ever tanked.  Sure the results kind of stank but look at our draft positions.  Yes, it's a "lottery" but you can also only move up or down so many spots in the draft order.  Frankly, we even sucked at sucking.:lol:

 

But yeah, look at the Oilers for proof of your statement.  Playoff team?  Sure but serious contender?  Not a chance.

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1 minute ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

I question whether we truly ever tanked.  Sure the results kind of stank but look at our draft positions.  Yes, it's a "lottery" but you can also only move up or down so many spots in the draft order.  Frankly, we even sucked at sucking.:lol:

 

But yeah, look at the Oilers for proof of your statement.  Playoff team?  Sure but serious contender?  Not a chance.

We didn't tank.  Ever not once.  We actually tried.  Buffalo, Edmonton, Chicago, Toronto, New Jersey actually tanked.  Sold off key pieces and roll players or stuffed quality players on LTIR or the minors to better their draft position.


We actually attempted to compete.  Supplemented the core, traded picks and pieces to try to compete.  We just sucked.  

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