[Proposal] The Hardest Decision Edition

[Warhippy]

The math doesn't work.   

If we have two stretches where we lose 3 or more games in the season we're statistically going to miss the playoffs.  We need to produce at a .684 winning percentage from here out just to meet that 98 point threshold for the western conference playoffs.  Our best year ever in 2011 we produced at a .713 winning percentage clip.  It's just not going to happen like that not matter how I wish otherwise.

 

So, the hard choices to be made.  Is this predicated on blowing it up?  Yup.  Why?  Because there's already been statements made about wanting to play for a winner.  So let's do the hard things shall we

 

Trade 1:

 

Van: Horvat

Buffalo: Ostlund

 

Buffalo has some fairly weak centre depth, Horvat being from the east might enjoy playing for Buffalo; low impact team no major attention.  Buffalo has had an incredible start to the season and is ready to take that next step.  Horvat replaces Ostlund in their org and provides that 2a centre depth on defense they just don't have.

 

Van: Pettersson, Woo

Columbus: Johnson, Jiricek (bad contract in Voracek) 

 

I am stealing this and another trade idea (with revisions) from @J.I.A.H.N as I went back and forth on it.  The initial suggestion was Sillinger, but Sillinger is a 19 year old centre from Columbus who wants to be in Columbus.  Pettersson is a far more advanced Johnson.  Columbus needs that kind of centre desperately right now, not in 4-5 years.  Losing Jiricek hurts Columbus as it would any team, but they have an RHD list on the roster of Peeke, Boqvist, Bean and Gudbranson as well as prospects in Christiansen and Bjork ready to step in.  Woo offers them an additional possibility as up in the air as it might be.

 

Van: Hughes, Silovs

Ari: Geekie, 2023 1st round pick unprotected

 

Is this even possible?  Who knows.  Obviously this years top 10 in first round picks should be completely untouchable.  But, this is a pretty big deal for the Yotes to get a star defenseman who they know full well they can flip for a monster return at any time.  This is the least likely of the trades I know and it sticks in my craw to give up Hughes at all.  But in the event this is a trade that happened this would give us an immediate two picks this year in what is arguably one of the deepest drafts in a long while.  Added, Arizona is...Arizona.  Nothing they do ever seems to work and they'll be able to flip Hughes for Matthews when Matthews is ready to leave Toronto anyways

 

Out:  Horvat, Hughes, Pettersson, Woo, Silovs

In: Noah Ostlund, Kent Johnson, David Jiricek, Connor Geekie, Unprotected 2023 1st round pick (bad contract from CBJ).

 

This level of youth injected in to this team right now in Johnson, Geekie and Ostlund sets this team up down the middle for years.  Jiricek immediately becomes the best RHD prospect this team has ever had.  Canucks have the ability to have two shots at Bedard, giving them two potential centres from BC who have expressed strong desires to want to play in BC for the Canucks.  This also gives Vancouver an additional shot at Michkov/Carlsson.

 

Again; yes I know it is probably not feasible outside of maybe that Buffalo deal, or possibly a revised version of that CBJ deal.  But something has to give eventually and adding 4 top blue chip prospects as well as an additional top pick this year gives the team 4-6 blue chip assets moving forward plus enormous amounts of cap space to try to work with moving forward.

Edited October 25, 2022 by Warhippy

[-AJ-]

A lot of these are pretty tough, and Hughes feels like by far the hardest one. He might be the best defenseman this franchise has ever had. I think he's young enough that he could still be a superstar even after a new rebuild is finished.

[smithers joe]

sounds like you've talked to these teams and theyhave cap space and a desire to do those trades, good work. 

too many fans just make the trades they want to see and believe that other teams would want the same trades.  if that was so, trades would already be made.

[Warhippy]

6 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

A lot of these are pretty tough, and Hughes feels like by far the hardest one. He might be the best defenseman this franchise has ever had. I think he's young enough that he could still be a superstar even after a new rebuild is finished.

It would 100% gut me to trade Hughes.  You're 100% right in that he'd be viable even after a 3-4 year actual rebuild.  He'll be a superstar without question and really might only lose out on ever winning a Norris due to being in the league at the same time as Makar/Hedman/Fox/Dahlin/Powers

 

I don't think even Arizona would make that trade, but Bedard + Michkov vs Hughes.....

[Fanuck]

You never answered the outstanding question from your other thread  -  what indications has ownership given that they have any appetite whatsoever for a rebuild let alone a -'scorched earth' scenario?  

 

As far as I can tell their directive to the entire organization has always been 'stay competitive, pursue playoffs' at all costs regardless if the end result is perpetual mediocrity. 

 

Until ownership gives another directive to senior management these proposals are beyond hypothetical.   

[Warhippy]

6 minutes ago, smithers joe said:

sounds like you've talked to these teams and theyhave cap space and a desire to do those trades, good work. 

too many fans just make the trades they want to see and believe that other teams would want the same trades.  if that was so, trades would already be made.

All of the teams I have above have the cap space to make these trades barring Columbus.  We'd HAVE to eat a bad contract back in either Voracek or someone like Gudbranson + with Voracek being the most appealing but Gudbranson being a possibility.  After losing Hughes/Horvat we'd have the space to eat either one and I believe that Voracek contract would be the more appealing for the Jackets but would be hard for us to eat for a year.

[Warhippy]

8 minutes ago, Fanuck said:

You never answered the outstanding question from your other thread  -  what indications has ownership given that they have any appetite whatsoever for a rebuild let alone a -'scorched earth' scenario?  

 

As far as I can tell their directive to the entire organization has always been 'stay competitive, pursue playoffs' at all costs regardless if the end result is perpetual mediocrity. 

 

Until ownership gives another directive to senior management these proposals are beyond hypothetical.   

They have no appetite or desire for it.  We know.  We're not dumb.  We've committed to the exact same motions as we have every year since 2012's post season collapse.  Pretend it's ok, retooling is fine.  Change nothing but a depth defenseman, ignore the issues and plug it with overpriced free agents.

 

We all know this is the case and what's true.  

 

But, Cap'n buzzkill.  These hypothetical trades are always hypothetical for a reason.  They're meant to generate discussion and give options, hope and engage people in the other aspects of hockey outside of just our teams on ice product so try to have fun with it 

Edited October 25, 2022 by Warhippy

[Coconuts]

The Pettersson trade is interesting, I could probably be sold on that one if Pettersson doesn't want to stay here. But if he doesn't want to stay why would he extend with Columbus? I could see them climbing before we do, absolutely, but Columbus? I guess they'd probably be a playoff team with him, Laine, and Gaudreau. 

 

I don't like the Hughes trade, I'd rather do the Pettersson trade and let him run with Jiricek. Hughes is a known quantity and if sell off assets like Horvat and Pettersson we'll still be picking high ourselves. Acquiring a top pick is appealing but there's no guarantee with the lottery, Hughes is a known quantity who'd be valuable through a rebuild. Will likely be our highest scoring D ever if we can extend him once his contract is up. 

 

Don't know enough about Ostlund to really have an opinion but his numbers are good, pretty small though. 

Edited October 25, 2022 by Coconuts

[Fanuck]

4 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

These hypothetical trades are always hypothetical for a reason.  They're meant to generate discussion and give options, hope and engage people in the other aspects of hockey outside of just our teams on ice product.

My hope, admittedly likely as far fetched as proposals such as these, is that people wake up out there and stop supporting this team financially (stop buying tickets & merchandise) making ownership/management realize there's really no financial risk to abandon this 'playoffs at all costs' bs and take meaningful steps to rebuild this team the right way - based on goaltending and defense. 

 

We're wasting a franchise goalie and some good core pieces because we have an unmitigated disaster posing as an NHL defense.  

[Warhippy]

12 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

The Pettersson trade is interesting, I could probably be sold on that one if Pettersson doesn't want to stay here. But if he doesn't want to stay why would he extend with Columbus? I could see them climbing before we do, absolutely, but Columbus? I guess they'd probably be a playoff team with him, Laine, and Gaudreau. 

 

I don't like the Hughes trade, I'd rather do the Pettersson trade and let him run with Jiricek. Hughes is a known quantity and if sell off assets like Horvat and Pettersson we'll still be picking high ourselves. Acquiring a top pick is appealing but there's no guarantee with the lottery, Hughes is a known quantity who'd be valuable through a rebuild. Will likely be our highest scoring D ever if we can extend him once his contract is up. 

 

Don't know enough about Ostlund to really have an opinion but his numbers are good, pretty small though. 

I'm of a position that Pettersson would be ok in CBJ.  Kekalainen is a known GM and very euro friendly.  He'd be money with Jonny Hockey and Laine.  Horvat is basically gone.  There's little reason to entertain keeping him in these threads.  Ostlund  and Lekkerimaki have played together for some time.  Getting a 1-2 of both of them would be great and if we're looking at losing Horvat might as well go with one of the teams needing centre depth the most in Philli, Buffalo, Arizona all of whom have items we need.  Buffalo for me is the most logical as they're the youngest and in most dire need of a defensive centre.  We made our choice with Millers contract extension.

[Warhippy]

12 minutes ago, Fanuck said:

We're wasting a franchise goalie and some good core pieces because we have an unmitigated disaster posing as an NHL defense.  

Sadly that's it.  

 

The hardest decisions.

[King Heffy]

I'd do all of the above.

[Coconuts]

10 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

I'm of a position that Pettersson would be ok in CBJ.  Kekalainen is a known GM and very euro friendly.  He'd be money with Jonny Hockey and Laine.  Horvat is basically gone.  There's little reason to entertain keeping him in these threads.  Ostlund  and Lekkerimaki have played together for some time.  Getting a 1-2 of both of them would be great and if we're looking at losing Horvat might as well go with one of the teams needing centre depth the most in Philli, Buffalo, Arizona all of whom have items we need.  Buffalo for me is the most logical as they're the youngest and in most dire need of a defensive centre.  We made our choice with Millers contract extension.

I get the Columbus argument, and I'm not against it as that'd still be quite the haul even with Voracek. I'd rather retain Pettersson but if we go rebuild mode and he wants to move I'd do it. 

 

I've shifted on Horvat, I think it's inevitable that he's moved. I've argued for keeping him and it's not that I don't want to, it's just that given how the season's gone I don't see him wanting to stay and go through another rebuild/retool. And you know, captain or not I don't fault him for that. Careers don't last forever and he wants to win. 

 

I think I'd rather just keep Hughes, that's a hard piece to replace and he's young enough that he's worth keeping. 

 

I'd still try to move Miller. My suggestion would be talking to Boston and try and get something done around Charlie Coyle+. I don't know what the + would be but Coyle's got three years remaining on his deal after this season and doing this would save us 2.75M against the cap yearly. We'd also free up cap sooner. Boston will need a Bergeron replacement, this is probably his last year. Probabl Krejci's last year too. Even if they're gotta re-sign Pasta they're going to need a top six center as their team is still built more towards being competitive than rebuilding. It's less than we'd have gotten once upon a time but I'd rather just bite the bullet. Say.. Miller for Coyle and Lysell. Maybe a little more. 

Edited October 25, 2022 by Coconuts

[BigTramFan]

Pretty sure we need a 0.64 pts % from here on out to hit 98 pts.

 

We are 7 games in with 2 pts. So we need another 96 pts from 75 games = 96/75 = 1.28/2 = 0.64

 

Guess what Boudreau's pt % was with the Canucks last season?.......0.649

 

So it's not impossible to make the playoffs

[Coconuts]

1 minute ago, BigTramFan said:

Pretty sure we need a 0.64 pts % from here on out to hit 98 pts.

 

We are 7 games in with 2 pts. So we need another 96 pts from 75 games = 96/75 = 1.28/2 = 0.64

 

Guess what Boudreau's pt % was with the Canucks last season?.......0.649

 

So it's not impossible to make the playoffs

Not impossible, but certainly not likely. Stay the course and we probably miss the playoffs and end up drafting in no man's land again. 

[Fanuck]

7 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Sadly that's it.  

 

The hardest decisions.

If ownership gave any indication they'd accept meaningful moves to get better, the only players I wouldn't make available would be Demko and Huggy, every other guy is replaceable to varying degrees.  

[Elias Pettersson]

I'd convince Petey to stay in a rebuild.  He'd be our leader and captain.  If we were to somehow land Bedard we would have one of the best 1-2 punches in the NHL.  

 

Hughes I think the best deal would come from New Jersey.  I'd do Hughes for Nemec and Bratt.  If we can also get a 2023 2nd round pick I would honestly jump on that deal.  We can then look at a line of Bratt   Petey   Lekkerimaki.  

 

As for Horvat, if we can get Bratt then I would sacrifice Hoglander as well to get a top 4 Dman.  Horvat would be a rental I think at the deadline so if the Rangers are a Stanley Cup contender they might bite on trading Schneider, who is stuck on the 3rd pairing and will never move up to the top 4 as long as Fox and Trouba are around.  I'd try hard for Schneider and a 2023 1st round pick for Horvat, Hoglander and any other player they want not named Podkolzin.

 

As for Bedard, if we can land him then you can play him with Podkolzin and if Kuzmenko sticks around that could be our 1A line.

[Elias Pettersson]

9 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

I get the Columbus argument, and I'm not against it as that'd still be quite the haul even with Voracek. I'd rather retain Pettersson but if we go rebuild mode and he wants to move I'd do it. 

 

I've shifted on Horvat, I think it's inevitable that he's moved. I've argued for keeping him and it's not that I don't want to, it's just that given how the season's gone I don't see him wanting to stay and go through another rebuild/retool. And you know, captain or not I don't fault him for that. Careers don't last forever and he wants to win. 

 

I think I'd rather just keep Hughes, that's a hard piece to replace and he's young enough that he's worth keeping. 

 

I'd still try to move Miller. My suggestion would be talking to Boston and try and get something done around Charlie Coyle+. I don't know what the + would be but Coyle's got three years remaining on his deal after this season and doing this would save us 2.75M against the cap yearly. We'd also free up cap sooner. Boston will need a Bergeron replacement, this is probably his last year. Probabl Krejci's last year too. Even if they're gotta re-sign Pasta they're going to need a top six center as their team is still built more towards being competitive than rebuilding. It's less than we'd have gotten once upon a time but I'd rather just bite the bullet. Say.. Miller for Coyle and Lysell. Maybe a little more. 

Lundqvist is playing well in Dallas, just saying...

[Warhippy]

8 minutes ago, BigTramFan said:

Pretty sure we need a 0.64 pts % from here on out to hit 98 pts.

 

We are 7 games in with 2 pts. So we need another 96 pts from 75 games = 96/75 = 1.28/2 = 0.64

 

Guess what Boudreau's pt % was with the Canucks last season?.......0.649

 

So it's not impossible to make the playoffs

It averages out to .633 actually, my math was/is wrong

[Warhippy]

6 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Not impossible, but certainly not likely. Stay the course and we probably miss the playoffs and end up drafting in no man's land again. 

about 12th is my guess