Evaluating Canuck D-Men

[JamesB]

Everyone (including JR) knew that the D was likely to be a  problem this year. Even so, the negative surprises outweigh the positive surprises. There is a fair amount of consensus on CDC and in the media on how the various guys have performed.

 

The numbers are broadly supportive of the media "narrative" but there are some differences that I think are interesting. I downloaded the D performance using the xGAR stat from Evolving Hockey. It is a lot more complete that the %xGF stat from Natural Stat Trick and combines PP, PK, and even strength performance into a single stat.. I used the default parameters, so only guys who have played at least 50 minutes of TOI are in the numbers. (And even that is a very small sample size but, hey, it is early in the season).

 

Here are the numbers. Players are ordered from best to worst.

 

Player	GP	TOI	PK	xGAR
Kyle Burroughs	8	147.6	0.3	1.8
Oliver Ekman-Larsson	12	275.2	0.4	0.9
Guillaume Brisebois	3	50.6	0.1	0.7
Ethan Bear	3	60.3	0.1	0.2
Luke Schenn	12	207.6	-0.2	-0.2
Quinn Hughes	8	209.9	-0.1	-0.4
Jack Rathbone	4	65.8	0	-0.5
Riley Stillman	8	111.8	0.1	-0.7
Tyler Myers	9	194.3	-0.2	-2.4

 

The players are ordered by xGAR, which is the summary stat. This stat refers to expected goals (based on shot position and other factors), not on actual goals, so it is not affected by the relatively disappointing performance of Demko so far.

 

The biggest weakness of the numbers is that they do not adequately control for quality of competition. So the numbers are likely to make guys who play "sheltered minutes" look better than guys who play "tough minutes". That is part of the explanation for why Burroughs and Brisebois are near the top.

 

Here are some comments.

 

1. Burroughs has played easier minutes than the top 4 guys, but not all that much easier. And his PK number is second best on the team. Also, considering the toughness and intangibles he provides, he has played well. He should be playing now, even if he has to play the left side.

 

2. The "consensus" on OEL is that he is having a tough year. It is true that his performance this year is worse than last year. But he plays the toughest minutes on the team and once we adjust for quality of competition he has been the best Canuck D so far this year. Not great, but better than the others.

 

3. Brisebois played only 3 games but he played really well and then got sent down because vets were healthy. Boudreau is noted for always favoring vets, and that may be the best way to coach. And I agree that Brisebois probably would have broken down if he had to play more and/or if he faced tougher competition. But he did play well.

 

4. Bear is the best story of the year on D so far in my view. Without much practice time he has come in and played well and has had pretty tough minutes. He looks like great value for his cap hit. I see OEL and Bear as the likeliest top shutdown pair on the team.

 

5. For a guy who gets paid the minimum, plays tough minutes, and plays a tough physical game and provides other intangibles, Schenn is great value. Love the guy. But he is being asked to do too much.

 

6. Hughes was not right to start the year and ultimately had to miss some games. He has been better since coming back, but he still is not playing nearly as well as he did last year.

 

7. The media narrative is that Rathbone should be playing, but his numbers are not good despite playing protected minutes. I like the idea of giving him some opportunity as he is the one guy with significant upside potential on the list, but he has not been great so far.

 

8. Stillman's numbers are bad and look worse if you consider that he gets relatively easy minutes. Hate the trade that brought him in. Giving up a second round pick to get a guy who is worse than a replacement level player is not good. And the cap saving from the trade was pathetically small. That trade is a flat out fail.

 

9. Myers was bad last in the numbers and is bad again this year. However his numbers look worse than is fair because he plays a lot of tough minutes. He would probably be pretty good as a 3rd pairing guy but he has never been good as a top 4 D.  And if he has to play on the 3rd pair with Stillman he will still struggle.

 

If I were doing the pairings I would go with OEL-Bear, Hughes-Schenn, and would try Rathbone-Burroughs although Burroughs-Myers would probably be safer.

 

I expect Stillman to be a healthy scratch next game in any case.

 

Would be interested in any thoughts.

 

Edited November 7, 2022 by JamesB

[rizzuto&hatoum]

Myers is bad. Indecisive, slow to react, flops like a dying giraffe when attempting to block shots and unable to impose his will on smaller players along the boards.

[Drakrami]

I think Boudreau is trying out the new guys to see what he has in the arsenal. (Stillman, Bear, Studnicka). Hopefully that is the case and it wont take too long. Not good news on the defensive side, we are stuck with old regressing dmen with no up and coming prospect replacements. 

[IBatch]

This poll should be modified so we can choose more then one lol.   Too easy - Burroughs for sure, and Stillman for sure. 

 

This team needs to make a trade(s) now to fix their issues on the defense. 

 

Aside from the early 90's pre-cap teams, when trades were easy and common, a lot more like video games id imagine (only ever played i think the 94 version, based on the 93 season....i'd play Detroit they had the best overall players, my brother Canucks and they actually ranked well too) ... both the WCE era and the Sedin era had a couple top four D's, we'd drafted.   This team has one. 

 

Aucion/Ohlund/Sopel - 92/94/95 ... look how long it took them to work their way into the top four ...  Bieksa and Edler. 

 

Quin era does provide some hope, Babych/Kurvers, Diduck a 4th, Lumme a 2nd, Murzyn/Stern, Hedican and Brown for Nedved ...  Butcher was the one draft pick on that roster that held out until the Ronning trade that was a top four guy, that we drafted (1980 i think). 

 

So is the fact, the peak Sedin teams had a baby faced Edler and mean faced Bieksa, the rest all trades except Hamhuis as a UFA.   Salo for Peter Schaefer ... i'd trade Podz right now if that's the return wouldn't you? 

 

Point is you can't win if you don't try to build properly.   We need top four D's, we have assets.   And it doesn't need to be too painful IF its done well.   

 

Wish we had Quin running the show or Burke.    Allvin.   Another puppet?   

 

Bear and Dermott were decent trades.   But we don't need another Jiri Slegr or Jason Strudwick.    We need a Salo, or a Hamhuis free agent signing, both really.  Otherwise ... well look at those draft dates for Aucion and Ohlund.    QHs is not the norm ... it takes 6-7 years to see the results.    It's also why Burroughs and Motte were good bottom guys, they are seasoned vets.   Brisbois too.   Plus they are still hungry. 

Edited November 7, 2022 by IBatch

[DrJockitch]

Tough part is better or worse than my expectations. 
‘Schenn has been best deal and better than expected every minute he has been here so my expectations have raised to the level he plays. Bear has also been better than expected after sitting as long as he has. 
‘Hard to pick who is most disappointing. To me the fresh wound of trading a second for a D man as limited as Stillman who has been objectively and subjectively terrible is the most disappointing but that is more disappointment in management for making such an I’ll advised deal. OEL had a good game against Nashville but has looked bad this year and Myers meets what my expectations have become, chaos everywhere. 
‘Perhaps most disappointing is that they keep putting Stillman in ahead of Rathbone and Burroughs but that is on Bruce. 

[Toyotasfan]

After watching a good defensive team like Carolina I would like to think even Myers’s would look good on that team because no matter what there’s alway a forward supporting the defencemen . Just a different echelon of defensive structure. 

     Canucks forwards can only play defensively for 1 period at best, some not an all. It’s hard on the goalie and the defencemen.

[smithers joe]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

This poll should be modified so we can choose more then one lol.   Too easy - Burroughs for sure, and Stillman for sure. 

 

This team needs to make a trade(s) now to fix their issues on the defense. 

 

Aside from the early 90's pre-cap teams, when trades were easy and common, a lot more like video games id imagine (only ever played i think the 94 version, based on the 93 season....i'd play Detroit they had the best overall players, my brother Canucks and they actually ranked well too) ... both the WCE era and the Sedin era had a couple top four D's, we'd drafted.   This team has one. 

 

Aucion/Ohlund/Sopel - 92/94/95 ... look how long it took them to work their way into the top four ...  Bieksa and Edler. 

 

Quin era does provide some hope, Babych/Kurvers, Diduck a 4th, Lumme a 2nd, Murzyn/Stern, Hedican and Brown for Nedved ...  Butcher was the one draft pick on that roster that held out until the Ronning trade that was a top four guy, that we drafted (1980 i think). 

 

So is the fact, the peak Sedin teams had a baby faced Edler and mean faced Bieksa, the rest all trades except Hamhuis as a UFA.   Salo for Peter Schaefer ... i'd trade Podz right now if that's the return wouldn't you? 

 

Point is you can't win if you don't try to build properly.   We need top four D's, we have assets.   And it doesn't need to be too painful IF its done well.   

 

Wish we had Quin running the show or Burke.    Allvin.   Another puppet?   

 

Bear and Dermott were decent trades.   But we don't need another Jiri Slegr or Jason Strudwick.    We need a Salo, or a Hamhuis free agent signing, both really.  Otherwise ... well look at those draft dates for Aucion and Ohlund.    QHs is not the norm ... it takes 6-7 years to see the results.    It's also why Burroughs and Motte were good bottom guys, they are seasoned vets.   Brisbois too.   Plus they are still hungry. 

no one mentions paul reinhart. imo, he was the most skilled offensive d we've had up and till hughes. he could thread passes to his forwards, stick to stick in full flight. my favourite of all time.

[Nucker 67]

This is all I'd want to keep, if they rebuilt the D:

 

Hughes - X

X - Bear

Dermott - Schenn

Rathbone - Burroughs

 

What to do with OEL, Myers, Stillman, Poolman

 

 

 

 

[Westcoasting]

30 minutes ago, smithers joe said:

no one mentions paul reinhart. imo, he was the most skilled offensive d we've had up and till hughes. he could thread passes to his forwards, stick to stick in full flight. my favourite of all time.

He was a beauty for sure

[Devron]

Myers has been a lot better in the past. He’s always gotten flack but he’s had really good stretches during his time here. He plays too much. He’s a low grade second pairing defencemen and not close to a top pairing. 
 

If this issue was fixed it would put a lot less stress on the rest of then D. Like a domino effect. A top pairing RH defencemen would do wonders for this team.

 

Just seems impossible to acquire one 

[Wolfgang Durst]

share the opinion regarding Stillman. He's a bottom pairing guy playing on the left side. That's the kind of player you can add in free agency or from the waiver wire. Trading away the second pick is such a waste for a Number 7 or 8 on the blueline. Cap savings on the Dickinson contract could have been accomplished by sending him down to Abby.

 

In the grand scheme I see the following issues on the Canucks blueline:

 

- lack of pyhsicality which is going to hurt the team in the end, because you lose puck battles and can't stop the cycling game of the opponent

- canucks D-Men continuously watching the puck instead of focusing on the man coverage

- Canucks D-Men look terrible when it comes to defending the rush; it's apparent that most of the goals against were the result of breakaways

- lack of a physical stay at home D-Man as part of a shutdown pairing

- lack of a Top 4 Right handed Defenseman

- tremendous overpayment of players like OEL and Myers; OEL contract could turn out to be the next Loui Eriksson contract, Canucks are really going to chew on this

 

I was shocked when I saw that stretch pass from one of the Devils players in the 3rd period that exposed our top pairing OEL/Myers and lead to the fourth goal for the Devils. How is possible that both ! OEL and Myers didn't cover their men at the same time? Both have hundreds of NHL games under their belt and should have enough experience not to be out of position this badly. I have no clue what is going on with Myers.

Edited November 7, 2022 by Wolfgang Durst

[NewbieCanuckFan]

2 hours ago, IBatch said:

This poll should be modified so we can choose more then one lol.   Too easy - Burroughs for sure, and Stillman for sure. 

 

This team needs to make a trade(s) now to fix their issues on the defense. 

 

Aside from the early 90's pre-cap teams, when trades were easy and common, a lot more like video games id imagine (only ever played i think the 94 version, based on the 93 season....i'd play Detroit they had the best overall players, my brother Canucks and they actually ranked well too) ... both the WCE era and the Sedin era had a couple top four D's, we'd drafted.   This team has one. 

 

Aucion/Ohlund/Sopel - 92/94/95 ... look how long it took them to work their way into the top four ...  Bieksa and Edler. 

 

Quin era does provide some hope, Babych/Kurvers, Diduck a 4th, Lumme a 2nd, Murzyn/Stern, Hedican and Brown for Nedved ...  Butcher was the one draft pick on that roster that held out until the Ronning trade that was a top four guy, that we drafted (1980 i think). 

 

So is the fact, the peak Sedin teams had a baby faced Edler and mean faced Bieksa, the rest all trades except Hamhuis as a UFA.   Salo for Peter Schaefer ... i'd trade Podz right now if that's the return wouldn't you? 

 

Point is you can't win if you don't try to build properly.   We need top four D's, we have assets.   And it doesn't need to be too painful IF its done well.   

 

Wish we had Quin running the show or Burke.    Allvin.   Another puppet?   

 

Bear and Dermott were decent trades.   But we don't need another Jiri Slegr or Jason Strudwick.    We need a Salo, or a Hamhuis free agent signing, both really.  Otherwise ... well look at those draft dates for Aucion and Ohlund.    QHs is not the norm ... it takes 6-7 years to see the results.    It's also why Burroughs and Motte were good bottom guys, they are seasoned vets.   Brisbois too.   Plus they are still hungry. 

Edler was an "outlier".  Straight from a "beer league" to the full time role in the NHL in a matter of a few years.  Developmental progression was unreal.  Granted, he always seemed to be better suited for the "North American style" than "European style" at the time.  Don't care how Thomas Gradin found him (eg., shadowing the Detroit Red Wings scouts lol), what a coup by him.

[AlwaysACanuckFan]

What Burroughs brings to this team, yes we really do need him..... in the lineup, not in press box. 

[JM_]

No way to know unless they announce it but I think OEL is dealing with an injury. 

 

Very happy with Bear so far, that one might work out great. 

[luckylager]

2 hours ago, NUCKER67 said:

This is all I'd want to keep, if they rebuilt the D:

 

Hughes - X

X - Bear

Dermott - Schenn

Rathbone - Burroughs

 

What to do with OEL, Myers, Stillman, Poolman

 

 

 

 

Better yet, how does management get rid of these contracts?

[JM_]

1 minute ago, luckylager said:

Better yet, how does management get rid of these contracts?

[luckylager]

9 minutes ago, JM_ said:

BUT AT WHAT COST, JIMMY!?

[JM_]

4 minutes ago, luckylager said:

BUT AT WHAT COST, JIMMY!?

our souls. 

 

If this latest re-jiggy isn't going to work, which appears to be the case, we need to embrace the full blow up. 

 

Elite talent always comes from your own picks. Everything else is secondary in a full rebuild, so if you retain on OEL e.g., to move him, who cares? 

[Maginator]

IMO a big problem with the D-core is Myers. We're forced to use him and he is a terrible decision maker.

 

Yes I get it his size helps.. but he needs to be able to play defence too.

 

Nothing with this blue line will change until Myers is gone. OEL we can still work with.

[Junkyard Dog]

Just now, JM_ said:

our souls. 

 

If this latest re-jiggy isn't going to work, which appears to be the case, we need to embrace the full blow up. 

 

Elite talent always comes from your own picks. Everything else is secondary in a full rebuild, so if you retain on OEL e.g., to move him, who cares? 

I don't see the point in using assets to move him in a rebuild. It would be costly and doesn't he have full control with a NMC or does that get nullified with the past trade?. Worst case he's a veteran that will play with and help a young D develop which isn't a bad worst case scenario. Only 4 more years after this one.