[PGT] Vancouver Canucks at Colorado Avalanche | Nov. 23, 2022

[Boudrias]

3 hours ago, IBatch said:

Happy?  No.   Willing to enjoy the little things?  Yes lol.   As fans anyways.  As far as management goes, playoff and winning for sure is their focus.   Creating interest is a lot easier to do with winning.  

 

Doubt management wants mushy middle.    They want a perennial playoff team.   The Aqua's bought at a good time.   The WCE and Sedin era added nationwide fans....two more generations.   As fans we have suffered more than any club but maybe Buffalo.   They know we are held hostage.   That said, even that fanbase has its limits.   Another 8 years of the same isn't going to do them any favours.  

I doubt fan ‘suffering’ really works into an equation measuring potential future success. What I have seen is a certain fan impatience for what they consider their due, a CUP. When we consider harsh reality the realization is that management could do everything absolutely right and still not produce a CUP. I think deep down many Canuck fans simply want a team that makes playoffs and CUP success is secondary. 
 

I have wanted a major rebuild for some time as I thought the only way serious CUP contention could be reached. Whether Bo scores 40 or 60 goals is somewhat inconsequential. It is whether he will be a key brick in building a serious contender. If not then management has to be open to changes based on best expected returns. That equation goes for every player on the team and the management group that makes decisions on where the club will be in 5 years. IMHO this has never happened in Vancouver in + 50 years. If Rutherford and Alvin are serious then they will be making changes to this roster now. Waiting in hope that this group makes playoffs is a weak victory which will simply maintain the status quo for this org.  

[Harold Drunken]

Luke Schenn - 20GP - 8 Points, +8 - $850,000 USD/YR

Oliver Ekman-Larsson - 20GP, 9 Points, -1, $8.25M USD/YR

 

Edited November 25, 2022 by Harold Drunken

[-Vintage Canuck-]

 

[Muttley]

 

[Locke Lamora]

9 hours ago, ShawnAntoski said:

The crew needs an Alpha, to follow and Schenn would be a good candidate to fill the captaincy, when Horvat gets a chance to win a cup, with another team.

Lol, I just went through the list of current NHL captains. Bo is out “alpha-ing” pretty much all of them this year. For Bo to be doing what he’s doing with this contract thing hanging over him just proves what kind of insane mettle he has. He is doing everything within his skill set to help this team win - too bad he can’t play D or goaltender! - while simultaneously showing this management group the error of their ways in underestimating him as a player.

 

That he doesn’t hit everything that moves or fight means he’s not an “alpha” is pure Neanderthal hockey thinking.

[EddieVedder]

24 minutes ago, Locke Lamora said:

Lol, I just went through the list of current NHL captains. Bo is out “alpha-ing” pretty much all of them this year. For Bo to be doing what he’s doing with this contract thing hanging over him just proves what kind of insane mettle he has. He is doing everything within his skill set to help this team win - too bad he can’t play D or goaltender! - while simultaneously showing this management group the error of their ways in underestimating him as a player.

 

That he doesn’t hit everything that moves or fight means he’s not an “alpha” is pure Neanderthal hockey thinking.

Thanks.

Too many Neanderthals that have never played competitive sports in their lives here.

 Horvat is the man.

[chon derry]

2 minutes ago, EddieVedder said:

Thanks.

Too many Neanderthals that have never played competitive sports in their lives here.

 Horvat is the man.

[IBatch]

6 hours ago, Goal:thecup said:

I think the error occurs because of the random nature that 2 point games are turned into 3 point games.

Since the loser point was introduced and tie games were eliminated, approximately 23% of games have gone to OT.

(This 23% has been remarkably consistent, so I am going to use it, only a couple years were over by about 1%.)

 

So, my math is:

82 games x 2 points = 164 points; under the old system a .500 record (which would eliminate about half the teams from the playoffs) is 82 points.

 

Under the new system, there are an additional 19 points (23% x 82 games) on average every year (slightly more, so round up to 20pts).

So this system produces an average of 184 points per season and a .500 record becomes 92 points.

 

The old adage that a .500 record or better gets you into the playoffs is just a benchmark or an objective, but it still holds because there are 32 teams and 16 get in.

It differs from division to division and conference to conference due to the differences in wins/losses between each group.

i.e. In a weaker division, a .500 record is more likely to get you into the playoffs (rem: a .500 record now is 92 points).

 

Well done.   It also goes backwards.   Seasons since the lockout, don't look nearly so hot when you've got 100 points.   100 points under the old system was a great year.   Good analysis.   To me 100 points since the loser point, is a good season, like 90-92 used to be that's it. 

[IBatch]

45 minutes ago, EddieVedder said:

Thanks.

Too many Neanderthals that have never played competitive sports in their lives here.

 Horvat is the man.

Come on Vedder.   Horvat is good yes, but his 23%ish shooting percentage isn't going to stay.   We sign him, say to 8.5 x 8, in a couple years people will be whining because he's not scoring anymore.    Yes he's very good at scoring right now.   I've watched hockey long enough to know that he's got a 3 year peak window.   Miller had his last season peak peak.  Horvat is having his now.   Wow just in time for a boffo deal. 

 

Anyone, who complained about not trading Miller - but wants to keep Horvat (and i'm not keeping tabs), needs to slap themselves in the face.   Naslund/Sedins had their peak years when again?   Horvat ... nothing until 38 games ago, said 50-60 goal scorer about his game.  Reality check. 

Edited November 25, 2022 by IBatch

[jyu]

12 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Come on Vedder.   Horvat is good yes, but his 23%ish shooting percentage isn't going to stay.   We sign him, say to 8.5 x 8, in a couple years people will be whining because he's not scoring anymore.    Yes he's very good at scoring right now.   I've watched hockey long enough to know that he's got a 3 year peak window.   Miller had his last season peak peak.  Horvat is having his now.   Wow just in time for a boffo deal. 

 

Anyone, who complained about not trading Miller - but wants to keep Horvat (and i'm not keeping tabs), needs to slap themselves in the face.   Naslund/Sedins had their peak years when again?   Horvat ... nothing until 38 games ago, said 50-60 goal scorer about his game.  Reality check. 

Agree that Horvat won't keep his current scoring rate. 23% is unsustainable.

 

But I disagree with the bolded. 

 

Bo takes 200+ shots over a full season. His career shooting rate is about 12-13% but you could clearly see that his shot has improved quite a bit over the years. It is not unreasonable to think that he will continue to sustain accuracy at over 13%. That equates to about 30 goals a season.

 

He takes and wins a lot of faceoffs. That's something that he will continue to excel in.

 

He is also the captain of the team and has done a good job in representing the team. 

 

And with Petey emerging as an elite two-way centerman, Bo is freed up to focus on offence. And he is killing it now that he has high caliber linemate in Miller and with Petey taking on the the match up duties like he did against the MacKinnon line.

 

Fair value for Horvat was about 7 mil in the offseason, somewhat comparable to what Kadri got. And considering that he is the captain and have been a good soldier for the team all his career, 7 or even an 8 year deal would have been fine. 

 

Given the cap situation and the gaping holes on our defence, one of Miller and Horvat had to be traded. To me it was an easy decision to trade Miller, not because Miller is a bad player. Miller is a great offensive player and I would keep him every day if we had the cap space to keep him. 

 

 

[Muttley]

 

[Muttley]

 

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, Muttley said:

 

Pretty much all we need to win a lot of games is for Demko to return to his elite form.  

[Muttley]

Now your informed in the world of the Canucks. 

 

 

[Harold Drunken]

55 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Pretty much all we need to win a lot of games is for Demko to return to his elite form.  

We pretty have have to go on a similar run with a similar winning percentage as the last half of last season to have a shot at the playoffs. 

 

Tall task to say the least. 

Edited November 25, 2022 by Harold Drunken

[-Vintage Canuck-]

 

[DrJockitch]

11 hours ago, VanCan2023 said:

I believe a healthy Hughs can get more points then any dman today with a right fit. Look at his ppg with frickin Schwan?? However winning a Norris and being considered top 3 is more than points. Give him a partner like Tanev and watch him flourish!.... 

He doesn’t have the shot. Yeah great playmaker but as long as he is not a significant threat as a shooter that is unlikely to happen. 

[Hairy Kneel]

If Martin wins, which is 50 50 I think. He should keep playing for a couple more games at least. 

[-Vintage Canuck-]

Update on Dermott and Poolman:

 

 

[-Vintage Canuck-]