Selke Frontrunners at the 1/4 Mark

[-AJ-]

I've decided to try to write more about current hockey on my blog, starting with the analysis I love doing of some awards. My plan is to do this four times throughout the year to track the candidates for these awards throughout the year. I chose to share the Selke one here because a familiar name might show up (read on to find out who ), but I also wrote up an article on the Norris trophy frontrunners, which I'll also link.

 

2022-23 Selke Trophy Frontrunners – 1/4 mark: https://hookedonhockeyhistory.wordpress.com/2022/11/25/2022-23-selke-trophy-frontrunners-1-4-mark/

 

2022-23 Norris Trophy Frontrunners - 1/4 mark: https://hookedonhockeyhistory.wordpress.com/2022/11/23/2022-23-norris-trophy-frontrunners-1-4-mark/

 

I'll also paste the entire Selke article here for those who don't want to navigate over to my site (though I appreciate those who do <3)

 

Quote

2022-23 Selke Trophy Frontrunners – 1/4 mark

NOVEMBER 25, 2022 / ANDREW SCHROEDER

Along with the Norris trophy one of my favourite awards to evaluate is the Selke trophy–largely due to the nuance involved in assessing it. It’s fairly straightforward to figure out the best offensive players, but calculating defense can get quite tricky. When it comes to the Selke trophy, there is often the debate about how much offense should factor in. The description of the trophy reads that is is given “to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.” Despite the award appearing to be only for defensive experts, it is often the case that defensive players with career years offensively win the award. I’ve done my best to compile a selection of statistics to help me determine the best Selke frontrunners so far in the season, as the quarter mark passes us by.

 

A few things to note: All statistics are as of November 23, 2022. Players needed a minimum of 13 games to be considered and had to participate in a minimum of 15% of the shorthanded time on ice for their team. This helps eliminate small sample sizes and also helps narrow down the list to forwards truly used for their defensive prowess. In total, 57 different forwards were chosen to be compared for this list.

 

Honourable Mention – Elias Lindholm

Last year’s Selke runner-up isn’t having quite as strong a year this year, but Lindholm is still an excellent defensive forward. Lindholm is a fantastic penalty killer and is also strong in the face-off dot.

 

Honourable Mention – Eetu Luostarinen

One of several newcomers to the Selke discussion, this 24-year old Finnish centre has had an impressive start to the year for Florida. Luostarinen has a strong +12 rating along with impressive puck possession numbers. He’s also an adept penalty killer.

 

10. Roope Hintz

Hintz received the slightest bit of attention for the Selke trophy last season, receiving two fourth place votes and four fifth place votes, but he has elevated his defensive game this year. Hintz is not only scoring at a torrid pace, but does so with an impressive +12 and strong possession numbers. Hintz also does his share of shot-blocking and plays a little on the penalty kill for the Stars.

 

9. Anze Kopitar

One of the few forwards to win the Selke trophy more than once, Kopitar is always a name to look out for in Selke discussions. This year, Kopitar is back to his old ways, with an excellent 57.3% in the face-off circle and 29 shot blocks, which leads all forwards in the league. He was 14th of the 57 forwards looked at in takeaways with 13 takeaways.

 

8. Elias Pettersson

Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports

Another new name to the Selke conversation, Pettersson evolved his game, starting in the second half of last season when he started to get penalty killing time. He has continued that growth into the 2022-23 season and now plays a key role on the first penalty killing unit in Vancouver. Pettersson scores a ton of points and does so while also being 7th in takeaways among this group and 2nd in blocked shots with 25.

 

7. Brandon Tanev

The younger Tanev, like his older brother, Chris, excels at the defensive side of the game, though as a forward. Tanev has received glimpses of Selke attention in years past and is looking great with the new and improved Kraken this year. Tanev is particularly outstanding on the penalty kill, being used in almost 50% of all shorthanded minutes for the Kraken. He is also an elite shot blocker, already with 22 blocked shots on the season.

 

6. Mark Stone

Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Often, Selke attention is disproportionately focused on centres, but Mark Stone breaks the mould. He’s been a finalist two times in his career and is off to another great start this year. Stone has an exceptional +12 and his 22 takeaways are the most of anyone on this Top 10. On top of all that, Stone has good possession metrics and solid shot blocking, two stats that tend to be inversely correlated.

 

5. Patrice Bergeron

In my opinion, Bergeron already holds the mantle of the best defensive forward of all-time five Selke wins and four more second-place finishes. Once again, he is off to a strong start. He has an incredible face-off percentage of 61.2%, the highest on this top 10 and also boasts the highest scoring chances for percentage on this list. On top of all of that, Bergeron has a +11 rating, blocks shots, and plays on the penalty kill for the Bruins, doing so adeptly. Don’t sleep on him working his way up to being a finalist again.

 

4. Phillip Danault

Photo by Harry How/Getty Images

Danault has finished top 10 in Selke voting for four straight seasons now, but this could become his highest ranking yet if he keeps this up. Danault is an expert shot blocker and penalty killer for the Kings. Danault might not score 100 points like some players on this list could, but can cover every defensive avenue needed by a shutdown forward, all while still providing a respectable secondary offensive punch when necessary.

 

3. Nico Hischier

This one might be a bit of a shot in the dark due to the absence of prior Selke attention, but a look at Hischier’s defensive numbers this year paint him as one of the NHL’s best right now. He’s scoring over a point-per-game, but also doing so while playing heavy penalty kill minutes, racking up an impressive +14 rating, sporting a very impressive 57.6% face-off percentage, finishing 11th out of 57 players with 17 takeaways, and playing with a 62.15% scoring chances for percentage. In all of these categories, Hischier finishes 11th or better out of the 57 players I looked at, putting him in serious contention for the Selke this year. We’ll see how the Devils do as the season goes on, but right now, Hischier looks like a very serious Selke threat.

 

2. Mitch Marner

Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images

I’m of the opinion that Marner may be one of the most underrated defensive fowards over the past two years. He’s not a centre, and he’s an offensive dynamo, so he doesn’t fit the “Selke mould”, but don’t let that fool you. Marner is exceptionally responsible defensively and the Leafs rely on him heavily to bolster their defensive end. He has almost no defensive weakness–arguably his worst stat is that he’s “only” +1 on the season. Aside from that, he has a very impressive 22 takeaways and strong possession metrics, while also playing a massive role on Toronto’s top penalty killing unit.

 

1. Aleksander Barkov

The winner of the 2021 Selke trophy is back for more this year and looking great while doing it. Barkov is scoring near a point-per-game, but still maintains very high takeaway numbers and an impressive 56.3% in the face-off circle. He also has extremely good puck possessions numbers with a 63.72% scoring chances for percentage. Make no mistake, this is a tight race at the top, but right now, I have Barkov in the lead.

 

Other notables: Chandler Stephenson, Logan Couture, Leon Draisaitl, Christian Dvorak

 

[Westcoasting]

Nice arcticle  Mariner does not get enough attention that is for sure. I’ve started watching NJ hockey games and you are bang on with your thoughts on Hischier....he is the real deal now! Also I have not thought about it before but I think you are correct in that Bergeron is the best of all time...even in his junior days he was that player, cheers

[jyu]

Petey is on his way to top 5 on this list along with Hintz by the end of the season.

 

Realistically, a winger like Marner usually don't get votes because how good he is offensively (although I think he deserves consideration).

 

Danault, while a great defensive center, doesn't put up enough offence. He won't get enough votes to be in the top 5.

 

It will be Barkov, Bergeron, Stone, Hischier, Pettersson or Hintz in the top 5.

 

Barkov will dominate this award for the next 5-10 years once Bergeron retires. 

 

Hintz, Hischier, Pettersson will be in contention during those years.

 

Petey will need to improve his faceoff percentages to over 53% as that seems to be one of the hallmarks of Selke winners.

 

[Twilight Sparkle]

im not really surprised tanev is on there. lowkey a very responsible player on once was a very bad team

[Coconuts]

Could def see Barkov leading the charge once Bergeron is done but I see Bergeron getting it this season 

[shiznak]

Surprised, you have Stone (deservingly so), but left off Stephenson.

 

Amongst forward in the league with min. 400+ minutes played, he’s ranked 4th in xGA/60, and has a faceoff percentage over 60%.

[-AJ-]

21 minutes ago, shiznak said:

Surprised, you have Stone (deservingly so), but left off Stephenson.

 

Amongst forward in the league with min. 400+ minutes played, he’s ranked 4th in xGA/60, and has a faceoff percentage over 60%.

Stephenson was actually right on the cusp of making my list. If I had a 13th place, he'd be there.

[Elias Pettersson]

Nice list AJ.  Agree with most of it.  I think Barkov takes it this year again and I think Petey has a shot at the top 5.  Barkov and Petey will be head to head for the Selke over the next decade I think.  Both players can put up 90 points, kill penalties, block shots and can be used against the other team's top line.

 

If BO leaves then I think we need a more offensive centre to replace him and Petey can be the shutdown guy.  Bedard or Fantilli would be perfect for us.  

[Coconuts]

I think I'm inclined to agree with your take that Bergeron is the greatest defensive forward of all-time. Bruin or not he's had such a remarkable career. 

Edited November 25, 2022 by Coconuts

[Elias Pettersson]

1 hour ago, Coconuts said:

I think I'm inclined to agree with your take that Bergeron is the greatest defensive forward of all-time. Bruin or not he's had such a remarkable career. 

Bergeron and Datsyuk are #1 and #2 I think...

[Chickenspear]

Tanev always looks surprised when there's a camera...

[Coconuts]

5 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Bergeron and Datsyuk are #1 and #2 I think...

That's how I'd have it pegged, could go either way really 

[Kevin Biestra]

3 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Bergeron and Datsyuk are #1 and #2 I think...

 

3 hours ago, Coconuts said:

That's how I'd have it pegged, could go either way really 

 

I wouldn't count Bob Gainey out.

[Coconuts]

20 minutes ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

 

I wouldn't count Bob Gainey out.

A great defensive forward to be sure, but I dunno, Datsyuk and Bergeron are both up there too. Particularly Bergeron, what he's done throughout his career is pretty nuts. Bergeron's Selke five wins and NHL record eleven consecutive Selke nominations speak for themselves. And yes, I know Gainey won four straight. https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/bruins/patrice-bergeron-named-selke-trophy-finalist-breaks-wayne-gretzky-awards-record

 

That he's legitimately in the mix for a sixth at 37 is incredible. 

 

I'd be curious to where @-AJ- thinks Gainey would fall as far as defensive greats go. 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Coconuts

[Alflives]

21 minutes ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

 

I wouldn't count Bob Gainey out.

The Pocket Rocket could play both ends of the ice too.  

[Kevin Biestra]

37 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

A great defensive forward to be sure, but I dunno, Datsyuk and Bergeron are both up there too. Particularly Bergeron, what he's done throughout his career is pretty nuts. Bergeron's Selke five wins and NHL record eleven consecutive Selke nominations speak for themselves. And yes, I know Gainey won four straight. https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/bruins/patrice-bergeron-named-selke-trophy-finalist-breaks-wayne-gretzky-awards-record

 

That he's legitimately in the mix for a sixth at 37 is incredible. 

 

I'd be curious to where @-AJ- thinks Gainey would fall as far as defensive greats go. 

 

It is worth noting that Gainey won the first four Selke Trophies ever awarded.  The trophy was established partway through his career and there is a good chance he would have won the previous three in a row as well.

[Kevin Biestra]

36 minutes ago, Alflives said:

The Pocket Rocket could play both ends of the ice too.  

 

Fantastic player.  Penalized by there not even being a Selke Trophy during his career.

[-AJ-]

53 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

A great defensive forward to be sure, but I dunno, Datsyuk and Bergeron are both up there too. Particularly Bergeron, what he's done throughout his career is pretty nuts. Bergeron's Selke five wins and NHL record eleven consecutive Selke nominations speak for themselves. And yes, I know Gainey won four straight. https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/bruins/patrice-bergeron-named-selke-trophy-finalist-breaks-wayne-gretzky-awards-record

 

That he's legitimately in the mix for a sixth at 37 is incredible. 

 

I'd be curious to where @-AJ- thinks Gainey would fall as far as defensive greats go. 

Really hard to evaluate, given the differences in eras and the lack of advanced stats in the 70s, but I would wager that Gainey would have to at least be 3rd behind Datsyuk and Bergeron. Winning the first four Selkes all in a row has got to count for something. Gainey was 2nd in Selke voting in 1982, after winning his four straight and was top 10 for the four years after that as well, so all in all, 9th or better for nine straight seasons. As @Kevin Biestra says, there's a solid chance he would've won or at least contested for the Selke in years prior to it's existence, maybe up to three (he wasn't nearly as prominent as a rookie in 1973-74).

 

For comparison, Bergeron has placed 5th or higher for 13 straight seasons, so I don't really think Gainey quite stacks up with Bergeron's longevity or excellence. If you think Gainey wins three Selkes before it exists and boosts his number of wins to seven, then maybe you might argue Gainey over Bergeron.

 

Datsyuk won three Selkes and was third place another three times. He was 9th or better eight seasons, though did slip up down to 13th in voting one year during his stretch. I think Bergeron is probably the comfortable 1st place guy, but I could see a debate between Gainey and Datsyuk for #2.

[Elias Pettersson]

1 hour ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

 

I wouldn't count Bob Gainey out.

The Selke Award has evolved over the years. Back in the day the award went to the best defensive player. Those players typically weren’t your top scorers.  Guys like Doug Gilmour, Sergei Fedorov and even Steve Yzermam broke that mold. 
 

Datsyuk won the award 3 years in a row. In those first two years not only did he win the Selke award, he also finished top 4 in NHL scoring in both those years. To me that is a greater accomplishment than what either Gainey or Bergeron did. 

[Coconuts]

3 hours ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

It is worth noting that Gainey won the first four Selke Trophies ever awarded.  The trophy was established partway through his career and there is a good chance he would have won the previous three in a row as well.

Sure, he may have. But you can't discount what Bergeron's done either. 

 

2 hours ago, -AJ- said:

Really hard to evaluate, given the differences in eras and the lack of advanced stats in the 70s, but I would wager that Gainey would have to at least be 3rd behind Datsyuk and Bergeron. Winning the first four Selkes all in a row has got to count for something. Gainey was 2nd in Selke voting in 1982, after winning his four straight and was top 10 for the four years after that as well, so all in all, 9th or better for nine straight seasons. As @Kevin Biestra says, there's a solid chance he would've won or at least contested for the Selke in years prior to it's existence, maybe up to three (he wasn't nearly as prominent as a rookie in 1973-74).

 

For comparison, Bergeron has placed 5th or higher for 13 straight seasons, so I don't really think Gainey quite stacks up with Bergeron's longevity or excellence. If you think Gainey wins three Selkes before it exists and boosts his number of wins to seven, then maybe you might argue Gainey over Bergeron.

 

Datsyuk won three Selkes and was third place another three times. He was 9th or better eight seasons, though did slip up down to 13th in voting one year during his stretch. I think Bergeron is probably the comfortable 1st place guy, but I could see a debate between Gainey and Datsyuk for #2.

I reckon he's top 3, but like you I still think Bergeron comes out ahead. Maybe Gainey does win more, maybe he doesn't, but we know for sure that Bergeron has won five, we know what Bergeron has definitively done, there are no what if's there. And like Pettersson said, the bar for winning a Selke has changed, it's not enough to just be a fantastic defensive player anymore, you have to contribute at a high level at both ends to even get a sniff at a nomination. One could argue Gainey may have won more Selke trophies, one could also argue the bar was lower, or at least different. 

 

By the time it's all said and done not only will Bergeron have won a minimum of five Selke's, he'll have done so likely having doubled up Gainey in points. Gainey had 501 points in 1160 games, Bergeron has put up 982 in 1216 thus far. Different eras sure, but you can't discount almost doubling up one's production. 

 

2 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

The Selke Award has evolved over the years. Back in the day the award went to the best defensive player. Those players typically weren’t your top scorers.  Guys like Doug Gilmour, Sergei Fedorov and even Steve Yzermam broke that mold. 
 

Datsyuk won the award 3 years in a row. In those first two years not only did he win the Selke award, he also finished top 4 in NHL scoring in both those years. To me that is a greater accomplishment than what either Gainey or Bergeron did. 

Good point, you've got to produce like a top six player more often than not now to even get a sniff at a Selke. You've gotta go all the way back to 00-01 in John Madden to find a winner who didn't, and he won it with 38 points in 80 games.

 

Somewhere along the way if shifted more towards needing top six level production. 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Coconuts