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Doing the Math (discussion) 2023-2024 Season


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Rostered Players (24)                                      Under Contract                     New Contracts           Contract Comments

 

Miller                                                             7 years X $8,000,000

Horvat         ($5,500,000)                                        UFA                                 8 X $8,000,000       Suzuki's new Contract $7,875,000 X 8/Hintz's new contract $8,450,000 X 8

Hughes                                                         4 years X $7,850,000 

Pettersson                                                    1 year   X $7,350,000

OEL                                                              4 years X $7,260,000   

Boeser                                                          2 years X $6,650,000                                                                         

Myers                                                            1 year   X $6,000,000       

Demko                                                          3 years X $5,000,000                

Kuzmenko   ($950,000)                                            UFA                                4 X $5,000,000        Kuz probably signs a bridge deal which is the middle of his target value

Garland                                                         3 years X $4,950,000

Mikheyev                                                       3 years X $4,750,000                                                                                 

Pearson                                                         1 year  X $3,250,000                                                                                                

Poolman                                                        2 years X $2,500,000                                                                                         

Bear             ($1,800,000)                                        RFA                                 3 X $2,500,000        Bear could hold out for more, but I think he takes the deal                                                        

Stillman                                                         1 year  X  $1,350,000

Dermott        ($1,500,000)                                        RFA                                 3 X 1,000,000         Does he Make this?          

Lazar                                                             2 years X $1,000,000

Podkolzin                                                       1 year  X    $925,000                                                                              

Hoglander    ($891,667)                                           RFA                                 3 X $1,000,000         Maybe it is a 1 year deal?

Amans                                                           1 year   X   $883,750                   

Schenn         ($850,000)                                          UFA                                 3 X $1,000,000         He is worth more!                 

Rathbone                                                       1 year   X   $850,000

Joshua                                                           1 year   X   $825,000

Martin                                                             1 year   X   $762,000

                                                                     ------------------------------               ---------------------

                                                                     Total        $70,155,750                     $18,500,000

 

CAP                       $83,500,000

Signed                   $70,155,750

                              ----------------

Remaining             $13,344,250

New contracts        $18,500,000

                              ----------------

Remaining Cap     - $5,155,750      Minus Poolman LTIR   $2,500,000    =    Shortfall   of $2,655,750

 

Studnicha                                                       1 year   X   $762,000

Dries                                                               1 year   X   $762,000

Burroughs    ($750,000)                                            UFA................signs for $850,000 starts in minors

 

Summary

-------------

With Poolman in the lineup..............we are short $5,155,750 - 1 player from the 24 man roster ($1,000,000) So Minus $4,155,750

With Poolman on LTIR.....................we are short $2,655,750

 

Conclusion

-----------------

*  Moving any of Garland, Boeser, Myers or even Pearson allows to retain both Horvat and Kuzmenko

** It does not allow us a needed RHD

***This does not allow us to improve

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by J.I.A.H.N
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I think the solution is clear. let Myers play out his contract there's no use paying to move it or Pearson's just let them expire in a year. 

 

Trade one of Garland or Boeser. Brock's probably worth future considerations with his price tag. Garland you could probably get an asset in return so trade the guy who gets us an asset. Brocks got a couple years to improve his value enough to return something of value if not too bad wait it out we won't be in cup contention anyway. 

 

We just need to stop with the short sighted trades. (And signings maybe let Brock walk UFA you don't haaaaave to sign him and if you can't trade him for a return so be it. 6.65m buys a good defenseman)

paying to dump Dickinson

paying to dump Loui Beagle Rooster

2nd (Rasmus Anderson) For Baertschi

Forsling for Clendenning

3rd for Dickinson(rights)

4th for Bowie

 

We never needed to make any of these moves. None of them were ever gonna push the needle. 

 

 

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Thanks for doing this JIAHN because I am tired of reading comments from people about how screwed the Canucks are on the cap and drawing wild conclusions.  It is clear that 1 player move is needed to sign both Horvat and Kuz.  One more  is needed if we want to upgrade on D. 

 

I expect they move someone like Pearson and sign Kuz and Bo.  If they can move Myers they can change the D.  If not it has to wait until one more year when Myers contract is up.

 

 

 

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50 minutes ago, hammertime said:

I think the solution is clear. let Myers play out his contract there's no use paying to move it or Pearson's just let them expire in a year. 

 

Trade one of Garland or Boeser. Brock's probably worth future considerations with his price tag. Garland you could probably get an asset in return so trade the guy who gets us an asset. Brocks got a couple years to improve his value enough to return something of value if not too bad wait it out we won't be in cup contention anyway. 

 

We just need to stop with the shortsighted trades. (And signings maybe let Brock walk UFA you don't haaaaave to sign him and if you can't trade him for a return so be it. 6.65m buys a good defenseman)

paying to dump Dickinson

paying to dump Loui Beagle Rooster

2nd (Rasmus Anderson) For Baertschi

Forsling for Clendenning

3rd for Dickinson(rights)

4th for Bowie

 

We never needed to make any of these moves. None of them were ever gonna push the needle. 

 

 

Agreed with the bold, either let the contract play out or seek to move them when they're a pending UFA.  Wait a year for them, and trade Garland straight-up for a RHD and we should be good.  Hopefully they finally learn to manage their cap afterwards and not make dumb moves.

Alternatively, re: OP's point of

*  Moving [player] allows to retain both Horvat and Kuzmenko

** It allows us a needed RHD

***This allows us to improve

Miller is the guy who can bring value and enable us to satisfy all 3 of these points (can retain our captain and shutdown center, and top-6 wing, can probably get an RHD and enable us to improve by trading our most turnover-prone star).

Edited by Phil_314
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I have actually been wondering if, because of inflation, covid, and where players coming off their ELC's are getting alot bigger money, I can see some form of 1 time buy out being offered by the league.

 

I have not heard anything, but if you look at the Cap space on most teams, it is getting pretty tight for almost everybody

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3 hours ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

I have actually been wondering if, because of inflation, covid, and where players coming off their ELC's are getting alot bigger money, I can see some form of 1 time buy out being offered by the league.

 

I have not heard anything, but if you look at the Cap space on most teams, it is getting pretty tight for almost everybody

I’d be willing to bet that won’t happen. 

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3 hours ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

I have actually been wondering if, because of inflation, covid, and where players coming off their ELC's are getting alot bigger money, I can see some form of 1 time buy out being offered by the league.

 

I have not heard anything, but if you look at the Cap space on most teams, it is getting pretty tight for almost everybody

Here's a link to an article where Bettman says that escrow could be paid off by the end of this season and the cap may jump by $4 million next season if it is.

 

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-salary-cap-could-increase-by-at-least-4-million-in-2023-24/c-336522332

 

That'd be the League's version of cap relief. I fully expect them to have a "you made your bed now lie in it" attitude when it comes to signed contracts.

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Hey i thought we were screwed capwise and had no money next season.   Look at that .... Thanks for the legwork Janis!. Just hope this TDL isn't as tragic as it's been for a very long time.   By then GMs will have better math on what they can project the cap should go up next season.   Let's hope it's 4-4.5 like Bettman already basically said it goes too.    That opens a lot of doors.   And agree, we don't need to shed much to end up in a decent spot to keep working on this core.   I'm not sure it's worth it. 

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On 11/30/2022 at 11:28 AM, J.I.A.H.N said:

I have actually been wondering if, because of inflation, covid, and where players coming off their ELC's are getting alot bigger money, I can see some form of 1 time buy out being offered by the league.

 

I have not heard anything, but if you look at the Cap space on most teams, it is getting pretty tight for almost everybody

Think Bettman will just announce an increase.   Almost certain of it. 4-4.5 which he already said is very likely ..: well.   It sure makes a lot of signings last off season make a lot more sense anyways.   For sure there is pressure to make this happen even if they don't really make their quota. 

Edited by IBatch
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