Nice scoring numbers

[danjr]

Well something good from this season right now, besides our dismal start.  (going ok on the recovery,  I hope those losses don't come back and bite us in the spring)

We have 5 players in the top 60 in scoring.  By average a team should only have 2.

 

Elias Petterson  10th

Bo Horvat 27th

JT Miller  51st

Andrei Kuzmenko t58th

Quinn Hughes  t58th

 

Bit of a sharp drop off after that point though.  It is nice to see some production.  Though it does really suck that our goalies will probably be at the bottom of the barrel come the end of the year.  Especially with these shootem up wins.

 

I hope they all have career years.  Kind of like watching the stats in 2008 through 2011  Seemed like all the players were setting career years.

 

[Phil_314]

Sell them (as in Miller/ Kuzmenko, and also pending UFA Schenn) while their value is high.  
e.g. if someone wants an RHD and also take on Kuzmenko for a playoff run, I'd hope management tacks on taking Myers' contract as the condition to acquire him.  Same with tacking on Pearson to Schenn so that both of them come at around $4 million combined. 
Just like how the Coyotes sold OEL to us by attaching Garland, that's how we should rid of bad contracts.  If we can't get high picks for them, at least clear the deck of some bad contracts, so the current ones (Miller, OEL, Boeser) aren't so glaring, and they can possibly play their way out of being overpaid.

Edited December 10, 2022 by Phil_314

[Ted Lasso]

1 hour ago, Phil_314 said:

Sell them (as in Miller/ Kuzmenko, and also pending UFA Schenn) while their value is high.  
e.g. if someone wants an RHD and also take on Kuzmenko for a playoff run, I'd hope management tacks on taking Myers' contract as the condition to acquire him.  Same with tacking on Pearson to Schenn so that both of them come at around $4 million combined. 
Just like how the Coyotes sold OEL to us by attaching Garland, that's how we should rid of bad contracts.  If we can't get high picks for them, at least clear the deck of some bad contracts, so the current ones (Miller, OEL, Boeser) aren't so glaring, and they can possibly play their way out of being overpaid.

Interesting approach on packaging players

[IBatch]

On 12/9/2022 at 7:45 PM, Phil_314 said:

Sell them (as in Miller/ Kuzmenko, and also pending UFA Schenn) while their value is high.  
e.g. if someone wants an RHD and also take on Kuzmenko for a playoff run, I'd hope management tacks on taking Myers' contract as the condition to acquire him.  Same with tacking on Pearson to Schenn so that both of them come at around $4 million combined. 
Just like how the Coyotes sold OEL to us by attaching Garland, that's how we should rid of bad contracts.  If we can't get high picks for them, at least clear the deck of some bad contracts, so the current ones (Miller, OEL, Boeser) aren't so glaring, and they can possibly play their way out of being overpaid.

Garland was loved by ARI fans though.  Just like TO fans liked Mikheyev.   It's not like they were useless, just became expensive.    Last year Garland earned every cent.   Funny how that goes once you lower a players minutes because others come in.    Brock.   Playing on a spare part third line with Dries lol.   Coach for sure isn't shopping him is he.  Not Garlands fault that he was offered less the Booth was getting cap percentage wise ...

 

Problem with adding all these guys is others take hits.   How many points does Kuzmenko get playing with Dries instead, or getting 11-12 minutes a game?     Foresaw this going into the season.     Also foresaw us having up to 8 20 goal scorers if the D was engaged.   Instead only 6 so far.  Still on pace to shatter peak Sedin era,  and Naslund era anyways (GF).   Too bad we can't defend and Demko hasn't been his normal self.   14 points ... sure could have used those. 

Edited December 12, 2022 by IBatch

[Phil_314]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Garland was loved by ARI fans though.  Just like TO fans liked Mikheyev.   It's not like they were useless, just became expensive.    Last year Garland earned every cent.   Funny how that goes once you lower a players minutes because others come in.    Brock.   Playing on a spare part third line with Dries lol.   Coach for sure isn't shopping him is he.  Not Garlands fault that he was offered less the Booth was getting cap percentage wise ...

 

Problem with adding all these guys is others take hits.   How many points does Kuzmenko get playing with Dries instead, or getting 11-12 minutes a game?     Foresaw this going into the season.     Also foresaw us having up to 8 20 goal scorers if the D was engaged.   Instead only 6 so far.  Still on pace to shatter peak Sedin era,  and Naslund era anyways (GF).   Too bad we can't defend and Demko hasn't been his normal self.   14 points ... sure could have used those. 

Agreed, this has nothing to do with them being useless; if you read my post I was saying that we leverage how useful and inexpensive they are, trade their high value to contenders to help them on their run, while we do exactly what you're saying (give the pricey but underperforming players those minutes [for Garland/ Boeser] so they can get prime opportunities and play their way out of being overpaid.  E.g., when Boeser got bumped back up with Petey, predictably his scoring chances went up; give him those roles, let him become that sniper and playmaker instead of a $6 million deadweight that many view him as, same with Garland (next to Horvat?).  

Mikheyev - Petey - Boeser
Miller - Horvat - Garland
Hoglander - Dries - Studnicka
Joshua - Aman - Lazar

Hughes - ______
OEL - Bear

[3rd pair]

With the move I was suggesting, for this season we might not have much of a right side D to speak with, but if successful we could have up to $11.05 million extra to play with after this season (by moving out Schenn + Pearson, plus Kuzmenko with Myers [with retention]).  The top-6 we'd have now might still be expensive/ top-heavy, but the bottom-6 actually looks good on paper, and if there's an RD candidate available we could readily flip one of these guys from the top-6 (with Podkolzin/ Hoglander available to move up) to balance this roster out.  It might be wishful thinking, but that would be better than the cap hell we're in now.

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, Phil_314 said:

Agreed, this has nothing to do with them being useless; if you read my post I was saying that we leverage how useful and inexpensive they are, trade their high value to contenders to help them on their run, while we do exactly what you're saying (give the pricey but underperforming players those minutes [for Garland/ Boeser] so they can get prime opportunities and play their way out of being overpaid.  E.g., when Boeser got bumped back up with Petey, predictably his scoring chances went up; give him those roles, let him become that sniper and playmaker instead of a $6 million deadweight that many view him as, same with Garland (next to Horvat?).  

Mikheyev - Petey - Boeser
Miller - Horvat - Garland
Hoglander - Dries - Studnicka
Joshua - Aman - Lazar

Hughes - ______
OEL - Bear

[3rd pair]

With the move I was suggesting, for this season we might not have much of a right side D to speak with, but if successful we could have up to $11.05 million extra to play with after this season (by moving out Schenn + Pearson, plus Kuzmenko with Myers [with retention]).  The top-6 we'd have now might still be expensive/ top-heavy, but the bottom-6 actually looks good on paper, and if there's an RD candidate available we could readily flip one of these guys from the top-6 (with Podkolzin/ Hoglander available to move up) to balance this roster out.  It might be wishful thinking, but that would be better than the cap hell we're in now.

Gotcha.   Raise the stock on some guys lower others.   Sell a little higher. 

[lmm]

On 12/9/2022 at 4:45 PM, Phil_314 said:

Sell them (as in Miller/ Kuzmenko, and also pending UFA Schenn) while their value is high.  
e.g. if someone wants an RHD and also take on Kuzmenko for a playoff run, I'd hope management tacks on taking Myers' contract as the condition to acquire him.  Same with tacking on Pearson to Schenn so that both of them come at around $4 million combined. 
Just like how the Coyotes sold OEL to us by attaching Garland, that's how we should rid of bad contracts.  If we can't get high picks for them, at least clear the deck of some bad contracts, so the current ones (Miller, OEL, Boeser) aren't so glaring, and they can possibly play their way out of being overpaid.

the only problem with that theory is that Jim  Benning is not employed at the moment

[lmm]

On 12/12/2022 at 9:50 AM, IBatch said:

Garland was loved by ARI fans though.  Just like TO fans liked Mikheyev.   It's not like they were useless, just became expensive.    Last year Garland earned every cent.   Funny how that goes once you lower a players minutes because others come in.    Brock.   Playing on a spare part third line with Dries lol.   Coach for sure isn't shopping him is he.  Not Garlands fault that he was offered less the Booth was getting cap percentage wise ...

 

Problem with adding all these guys is others take hits.   How many points does Kuzmenko get playing with Dries instead, or getting 11-12 minutes a game?     Foresaw this going into the season.     Also foresaw us having up to 8 20 goal scorers if the D was engaged.   Instead only 6 so far.  Still on pace to shatter peak Sedin era,  and Naslund era anyways (GF).   Too bad we can't defend and Demko hasn't been his normal self.   14 points ... sure could have used those. 

I think you are recalling with some rose dust on your glass'

Last year Garland had 2 phases, seasons if you will.

the first 15 games he scored 9 goals.

Lets call that the angry elf period

that was a scoring rate of 1 goal every 1.66 games

 

the rest of the season, 62 games, he scored 10 goals, including something like a 20 game drought

that was a rate of 1 goal every 6.2 games

this year 4 goals in 27 games equals 1 goal every 6.75 games

 

he is within one goal of scoring better than he did last season for the final 62 games

 

I think if you take out that angry elf hot streak what you saw last season is the same as what we see this season

we can probably blame Sheldon Dries/ Jack Studnika for the difference between a goal every 6.2 and 6.75 games

The not-so-angry-Elf played himself off of Horvat/Miller line this season, being replaced by Nils Hoglander who doesn't score at any faster pace

 

droughts

2021-22 Feb 27-Apr 7- 19 games - 0 goals

2022-23 OCt 28-Dec 3- 17 games - 0 goals

2020-21 Nov 21-Dec 28- 17 games -2 goals

2019-20 Feb 9-   Apr 2-  18 games - 1 goal

that is actually pretty consistent

 

in 53 games from Feb 27- Dec 3 Garland scored 8 goals for a rate of 1 goal every 6.25 games, that is pretty much what he does

 

he had a 15 game blip that fans thought was the real Conner "THE ANGRY ELF" Garland

what we saw was enter, Bruce there it is

exit, the angry elf

Edited December 14, 2022 by lmm

[Guest]

I was thinking about this the other day...  

 

In today's salary cap era, it will be almost impossible to build a perennial contender that is predicated on a high-scoring team.  Your players will end up pricing themselves out of the team.  

 

So as much as fans may not like the style of hockey, I think that we should start prioritizing building teams that will win 3-2 instead of 7-6.  

 

Look at the numbers that we will have to shell out to keep Bo, Kuz...  and that we had to pay for JT.  

 

We are building a team that won't win much, but will have great individual stats.  

[Ghostsof1915]

3 minutes ago, VancouverHabitant said:

I was thinking about this the other day...  

 

In today's salary cap era, it will be almost impossible to build a perennial contender that is predicated on a high-scoring team.  Your players will end up pricing themselves out of the team.  

 

So as much as fans may not like the style of hockey, I think that we should start prioritizing building teams that will win 3-2 instead of 7-6.  

 

Look at the numbers that we will have to shell out to keep Bo, Kuz...  and that we had to pay for JT.  

 

We are building a team that won't win much, but will have great individual stats.  

Colorado and Tampa says hi.

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Colorado and Tampa says hi.

That's true in Tampa's case, and they've had to shed important players every year but have managed it well.  

 

Remains to be seen if Colorado can remain a powerhouse after losing a couple of important pieces.  

 

Those are good points. 

[IBatch]

7 hours ago, lmm said:

I think you are recalling with some rose dust on your glass'

Last year Garland had 2 phases, seasons if you will.

the first 15 games he scored 9 goals.

Lets call that the angry elf period

that was a scoring rate of 1 goal every 1.66 games

 

the rest of the season, 62 games, he scored 10 goals, including something like a 20 game drought

that was a rate of 1 goal every 6.2 games

this year 4 goals in 27 games equals 1 goal every 6.75 games

 

he is within one goal of scoring better than he did last season for the final 62 games

 

I think if you take out that angry elf hot streak what you saw last season is the same as what we see this season

we can probably blame Sheldon Dries/ Jack Studnika for the difference between a goal every 6.2 and 6.75 games

The not-so-angry-Elf played himself off of Horvat/Miller line this season, being replaced by Nils Hoglander who doesn't score at any faster pace

 

droughts

2021-22 Feb 27-Apr 7- 19 games - 0 goals

2022-23 OCt 28-Dec 3- 17 games - 0 goals

2020-21 Nov 21-Dec 28- 17 games -2 goals

2019-20 Feb 9-   Apr 2-  18 games - 1 goal

that is actually pretty consistent

 

in 53 games from Feb 27- Dec 3 Garland scored 8 goals for a rate of 1 goal every 6.25 games, that is pretty much what he does

 

he had a 15 game blip that fans thought was the real Conner "THE ANGRY ELF" Garland

what we saw was enter, Bruce there it is

exit, the angry elf

No i'm considering the ROI on his cap hit last season and it was very decent.   Well ahead of the wingers payscale, especially considering it's a UFA deal without protection.   He was never going to be a goal scorer - it's not his game.   5 x 5 last year, he played well above his AVV.   Drew a lot of penalties, led the forwards/team in plus minus and wasn't gifted any meaningful power play time.   I'm well aware Bruce wasn't super fond of him and that his assignments changed.   But it still evened out over the full season.   No Bruce bump per say.    I do understand he's not going to earn his paycheque playing 10-11 minutes a game as the play driver on the third line. It's too bad.   One of the issues we have with 9 guys or so that could play in the top six at any given night (once Pearson is back).     Not going to be easy to sell high on Garland.    The goal he had disallowed, for goalie inference not too long ago, was indicative of how things have been going for him.  

 

Was he second in even strength points last year at 48 or so?  18 of his 19 goals too... almost what Miller scored correct? Going into this season and last season as well, other teams were very interested in him and rightly so.   Draws lots of penalties, 50 takeaways,  plus 18 on a non playoff team etc etc.   48 EV points isn't just very good, its approaching elite.   Well aware of the scoring droughts too.    If you want to take away so points, for whatever reason, 40 points is actually decent too for what he brings.    Didn't Sutter manage that once?   Can't remember.   Sutters cap hit was a lot higher percentage wise, when he signed it.     This year it's bad.   

 

Last year Horvat was non existent the first half.   EP fell all over the place and on pace for a career worst season.   Brock too.   Only forwards bringing it somewhat with Green were Garland and Miller.    It's pretty well documented that Bruce isn't a fan of Garland.   Usually can't help himself "did a pretty nice play - for a LITTLE guy" things like that.   THN and other fantasy (yes get this is fantasy), predicted with first unit time he'd be in the 60's low 70's this year.   That of course is silly.    As is expecting 50 points 5 x 5 playing 10 minutes a game with plugs.  

 

Final two years in ARI were also very decent.   Middle six then top six.   Just for fun go back and check out the ARI fan forum, when the OEL cap dump trade was announced but the rest of it wasn't on yet.    They were freaking out like a bunch of ninnies that Garland might be included.    At first it was inconceivable to them, but once someone mentioned it, they got pretty antsy lol.    He's not going to help himself, or our team much playing in the doghouse.     That said, next year, it's looking possible that he might get another chance, and maybe even on the top line.   Horvat and Brock good odds both aren't playing for us.   Hogs too who knows.   His contract is becoming tougher to move.