NHL increased offense is inflating salary caps and player egos: a review is needed

[CanuckRookieFan]

It is no secret that for the past 2 seasons scoring has been up in the NHL, what most people dont realize is just how MUCH UP it has been. 

Currently there are 12 players right now on pace for 50 goal seasons, you heard me folks 12!! 

For comparison there was only 4 players last season who hit 4, we are seeing a dramatic increase.

 

Furthermore, we have an alarming number of players who will easily get to 100 points, including McDavid on pace for 150 points+ Anyone who is a real educated fan will see how alarming these numbers are when compared to the median and mean progression of statistics over the past 10 years. To put it frankly, if this was a housing mortgage market you would pretty much need to see the movie the BIG SHORT to understand how mind boggling the situation is.

Furthermore, it gets worse. I want to know for anyone in the legal profession on these forums or someone who has experience in corporate law suits that a situation can arise where a owner of a team can take the NHLPA to court if they can prove that beyond a reasonable doubt the rules that were forced on the NHL by the NHLPA were directly related to increased goal scoring with the idea of players racking up points faster, and at greater rate which will then increase their perceived value against the cap and force owners to pay out higher annual contracts. This will push the cap up higher forcing owners to pay higher wages, benefiting the players. I am sorry guys but as someone who works in corporate business world and follows Aqua operations I am extremely interested in seeing if this is a legitimate case to build.

 

Lastly, the situation above hurts me directly financially as I play in a niche Fantasy Hockey Pool that is GOALIES only, so we only pick and play goalies. I have several pretty significant financial bets on 2 or more goalies with GAA under 2.0 also I have 1.5 goalies with 10+ shutouts and 2.5+ goalies with 0.930+ save %. To me personally this offense is crushing my operations and I really hope it turns around quick here, I grew up in the 90s and 2000s where goalies were the stars, it is alarming to see the NHL make a mockery of them. Goalies are better, bigger and smoother than ever while the NHL players can only do so much with the puck, skating, moves they stayed the same consistently over the past 20 years or so this leads to believe the NHL purposely handcuffed goalies into a corner to increase the scoring as requested by the NHLPA. It has become a comedy of errors here, and I am curious to know what fans think of it and someone to see it from my perspective.

 

 

[-AJ-]

I would really hope that GMs, coaches, and other management would be aware of relative value and factor in increased offense. Scoring 50 goals in today's game is not as impressive as scoring 50 goals five years ago and that needs to be accounted for--I would expect them to be able to consider that.

 

Additionally, the inverse could be considered true of goaltenders. A .910 save percentage has gone from roughly average to being a pretty solid save percentage, as the NHL average is now down to .905. It was as high as .915 seven or eight years ago.

[HighOnHockey]

17 minutes ago, CanuckRookieFan said:

Furthermore, it gets worse. I want to know for anyone in the legal profession on these forums or someone who has experience in corporate law suits that a situation can arise where a owner of a team can take the NHLPA to court if they can prove that beyond a reasonable doubt the rules that were forced on the NHL by the NHLPA were directly related to increased goal scoring with the idea of players racking up points faster, and at greater rate which will then increase their perceived value against the cap and force owners to pay out higher annual contracts. This will push the cap up higher forcing owners to pay higher wages, benefiting the players. I am sorry guys but as someone who works in corporate business world and follows Aqua operations I am extremely interested in seeing if this is a legitimate case to build.

 

I don't understand how this would drive the salary cap up, as it is based on revenue. It might drive up the salaries for certain players, which would only leave less cap money to go around for the majority of players, which would be against the NHLPA's cause.

[qwijibo]

Oh no.  Exciting games with lots of offence? How are we to survive? 

[CanuckRookieFan]

48 minutes ago, HighOnHockey said:

I don't understand how this would drive the salary cap up, as it is based on revenue. It might drive up the salaries for certain players, which would only leave less cap money to go around for the majority of players, which would be against the NHLPA's cause.

People like Petey and Horvat are due now for a huge pay raise because of how easy it is for them to hit record numbers. This hurts us as a cap straped team, thus hurting all of us as fans. The sooner you come to see what i am talking about the sooner your realize how troubling this offensive trend is.

[DrJockitch]

21 minutes ago, CanuckRookieFan said:

People like Petey and Horvat are due now for a huge pay raise because of how easy it is for them to hit record numbers. This hurts us as a cap straped team, thus hurting all of us as fans. The sooner you come to see what i am talking about the sooner your realize how troubling this offensive trend is.

That has more to do with a decade of terrible cap management than an issue with the league. 
‘Good teams usually bleed quality players because of salaries. That is what the cap does. We have just done such a terrible job that we lose quality players for cap constraints despite being bottom feeder. 

[Guest]

Yes, I have thought about this a bit last season and all of this season.  

 

OP, your message sounds alarmist but it shouldn't be.  More offense is a good thing HOWEVER it creates problems when negotiating with your players and staying under the salary cap.  

 

I've brought this up and then had Tampa Bay's example thrown in my face.  Scoring numbers are invariably what gets brought up in contract negotiations unless you're a goalie. 

 

It leads me to believe that rewarding players on a team like the present Canucks' team is exactly the wrong way to structure a team. Bo Horvat is just the latest to be in line for a big raise, and all within the confines of a team that is not going anywhere in terms of post-season success. 

[goalie13]

1 hour ago, CanuckRookieFan said:

People like Petey and Horvat are due now for a huge pay raise because of how easy it is for them to hit record numbers. This hurts us as a cap straped team, thus hurting all of us as fans. The sooner you come to see what i am talking about the sooner your realize how troubling this offensive trend is.

Except you have worded it poorly in your original post.

 

While the players may demand higher salaries, and that will put pressure on teams that spend to the cap, the cap itself is still based on a 50/50 split in hockey related revenues.  You are correct that Petey and Horvat are due for a huge pay increase, but that won't push the cap up.  Only an increase in league revenues will do that.

[HighOnHockey]

2 hours ago, CanuckRookieFan said:

People like Petey and Horvat are due now for a huge pay raise because of how easy it is for them to hit record numbers. This hurts us as a cap straped team, thus hurting all of us as fans. The sooner you come to see what i am talking about the sooner your realize how troubling this offensive trend is.

Oh, right. Yes. Tragic. Woe is all of us.

[DownUndaCanuck]

Zacha just got almost 5M for scoring at a 48 point pace. Garland is pretty much scoring at that pace and his deal was signed ages ago. There's lots of variation, sure, but I think the top end deals are going to get silly. We just need bench marks to go off, MacKinnon and McDavid's deals are sort of that. I worry what Matthews is going to make, and then likely every other big deal will fall into line under that. Petey at 10M for a 100pt season sounds great, but 100pts in today's NHL is probably similar to the Sedins scoring 82 points. I can't quite remember their proportion of cap hit but doubt it was that massive a chunk because obviously the cap isn't going up as fast as the scoring.

 

Would be wise to wait out all these mega contracts, it will surely cripple young teams soon and leave them a bit like Toronto - top heavy with little depth.

 

Fair play to Seattle for coming into the league and signing a bunch of relatively cheap deals.

[IBatch]

On 1/15/2023 at 4:33 PM, -AJ- said:

I would really hope that GMs, coaches, and other management would be aware of relative value and factor in increased offense. Scoring 50 goals in today's game is not as impressive as scoring 50 goals five years ago and that needs to be accounted for--I would expect them to be able to consider that.

 

Additionally, the inverse could be considered true of goaltenders. A .910 save percentage has gone from roughly average to being a pretty solid save percentage, as the NHL average is now down to .905. It was as high as .915 seven or eight years ago.

Think all GMs are working on the idea cap is going to be 90-95 million before they know it.   Because even with some covid, they had a record year last one.   Ahead of schedule with escrow by 1.5-2 years. Probably 1.5 (why Bettman retracted the possibility of cap going up 4-4.5 this off season ... and instead up one million and the following year a very big jump).   That jump could be 10%.   Which makes a lot of sense.   5 years that's only 2.5% growth on average ... with inflation the way it is ... wouldn't shock me to see cap go up 8-9 million.  Conservatively probably more like 6-7.    That should help with some of these raises.    But it's always concerns  me that cap creates a class system in the locker room, and having long term RFA deals comes at a risk the same way long term UFA deals have.    The carrot needs to be there and it's not as much anymore.    Wish they'd consider reducing terms by one year RFA and UFA.    A lot of bad cap gets tied up there.   Better vets take less money.   And some retire instead of taking peanuts - AHLers and ELC's some not ready yet - balance the books.   20% of the NHLPA takes 80% of the pie.   That's ok because some are just that much better ... feel that some sort of production element needs to be considered built into certain contracts, if they aren't met then the club can cancel the contract.    Just one way to deal with LE type deals. 

 

Maybe the talent level is just better.   And the game has reverted back to skill (albiet without enforcers and power forwards keeping things honest - the leagues running all of that mostly now) ... It's been trending that way for awhile. 

 

Size of players has been slowly going down for years now.   All the way back to the late 80's!    It's not about goalies being worse ... it's about skill being prioritized, and smaller players again being able to rule the roost.     QHs, Makar, Girard, Dumba, ... there are a lot of sub-six or six foot D's now.   Not just a couple (Housley and Chelios - and Chelios would be considered a goon today lol) and guys like Caufield and Garland, Keller, little guys have the space and room to do their thing.   

 

Personally love it and think it's great for the game.   And hope that it continues.    Took a long time for talent level to get back to really high again.  
 

Also agree that if you want to make an even playing field and compare era's - one easy way to do it is just adjust save percentages.   Right now the average is 7 more goals per thousand shots than it was in the 80's.   That's less than 1%.    

 

League went full clutch and grab in the early 90's - very early 90's.  Hull, Mario and others complained about it years before the dead puck era started (officially 1995 shortened season).    Have magazines from before then with many hockey people complaining about it.     Expansion brought in worse players, and the league decided bigger was better.   Skilled players had no space, had to be extremely strong and skilled to get through guys and as Theo Fluery recently said - it was all out war back then.   NJ style of play was mimicked by bad teams...slowed the game down considerably. 

 

Now players don't have an extra pass to make - removing the redline sped the game up.   And now players don't have to worry as much about get their head knocked off if they kept it down - or trying to make a play with a guy one their back or hooking and holding as much.   Of getting murdered by some monster. 

 

Im stoked.  Josi 96 points!   Makar, Fox, QHs, Dahlin, Heiskanen ... L Hughes and Nemec in the wings, Power, and a bunch of others coming up.    The offense from the back end finally, after 30 years, seems to be coming back.   And with that we will see a lot more scoring upfront as well.     There were some incredible goalies in the 80-90's ... the ones in the 90's saw a huge boost to their stats (Roy is a perfect example having played in both decades at the highest level for both era's - SP went from .900ish up to .922 in the darkest part of the dead puck era lol... he didn't get better he was always awesome) ... and bet inversely, put Hasek, Belfour, Broduer in net in the 80's and they'd see a significant drop in save percentage as well.  

 

As far as contracts go the market will determine that - but long term second contracts for promising young players seem to be the norm now.   Imagine how people would feel IF JB did 7.5 x 8 for Brock instead of a bridge (thank god he didn't have the room)?    It's not the right way to do it.   The Sedins were done properly.  ELC - 3 years - then one year to prove they could do it - then 5 then 4.    Too bad because it is an issue. It's gambling on kids to do it.  Boldy?  That was a Bold move lol.   Like the kid. But that's a lot of money.   Personally feel it's possible this blows up on everyone's faces - and eventually the NHLPA and NHL will have to fix it by limiting RFA deals.   Possibly even a cap on it the same way they have them for ELC's.     

 

Edit:  Overall, i'm just excited to see a lot more 5-4 games then 2-1, 3-2 games.   It's good for the game.   Maybe not the goalies lol.   But good for the game. 

Edited January 18, 2023 by IBatch

[Alflives]

18 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Think all GMs are working on the idea cap is going to be 90-95 million before they know it.   Because even with some covid, they had a record year last one.   Ahead of schedule with escrow by 1.5-2 years. Probably 1.5 (why Bettman retracted the possibility of cap going up 4-4.5 this off season ... and instead up one million and the following year a very big jump).   That jump could be 10%.   Which makes a lot of sense.   5 years that's only 2.5% growth on average ... with inflation the way it is ... wouldn't shock me to see cap go up 8-9 million.  Conservatively probably more like 6-7.    That should help with some of these raises.    But it's always concerns  me that cap creates a class system in the locker room, and having long term RFA deals comes at a risk the same way long term UFA deals have.    The carrot needs to be there and it's not as much anymore.    Wish they'd consider reducing terms by one year RFA and UFA.    A lot of bad cap gets tied up there.   Better vets take less money.   And some retire instead of taking peanuts - AHLers and ELC's some not ready yet - balance the books.   20% of the NHLPA takes 80% of the pie.   That's ok because some are just that much better ... feel that some sort of production element needs to be considered built into certain contracts, if they aren't met then the club can cancel the contract.    Just one way to deal with LE type deals. 

 

Maybe the talent level is just better.   And the game has reverted back to skill (albiet without enforcers and power forwards keeping things honest - the leagues running all of that mostly now) ... It's been trending that way for awhile. 

 

Size of players has been slowly going down for years now.   All the way back to the late 80's!    It's not about goalies being worse ... it's about skill being prioritized, and smaller players again being able to rule the roost.     QHs, Makar, Girard, Dumba, ... there are a lot of sub-six or six foot D's now.   Not just a couple (Housley and Chelios - and Chelios would be considered a goon today lol) and guys like Caufield and Garland, Keller, little guys have the space and room to do their thing.   

 

Personally love it and think it's great for the game.   And hope that it continues.    Took a long time for talent level to get back to really high again.  
 

Also agree that if you want to make an even playing field and compare era's - one easy way to do it is just adjust save percentages.   Right now the average is 7 more goals per thousand shots than it was in the 80's.   That's less than 1%.    

 

League went full clutch and grab in the early 90's - very early 90's.  Hull, Mario and others complained about it years before the dead puck era started (officially 1995 shortened season).    Have magazines from before then with many hockey people complaining about it.     Expansion brought in worse players, and the league decided bigger was better.   Skilled players had no space, had to be extremely strong and skilled to get through guys and as Theo Fluery recently said - it was all out war back then.   NJ style of play was mimicked by bad teams...slowed the game down considerably. 

 

Now players don't have an extra pass to make - removing the redline sped the game up.   And now players don't have to worry as much about get their head knocked off if they kept it down - or trying to make a play with a guy one their back or hooking and holding as much.   Of getting murdered by some monster. 

 

Im stoked.  Josi 96 points!   Makar, Fox, QHs, Dahlin, Heiskanen ... L Hughes and Nemec in the wings, Power, and a bunch of others coming up.    The offense from the back end finally, after 30 years, seems to be coming back.   And with that we will see a lot more scoring upfront as well.     There were some incredible goalies in the 80-90's ... the ones in the 90's saw a huge boost to their stats (Roy is a perfect example having played in both decades at the highest level for both era's - SP went from .900ish up to .922 in the darkest part of the dead puck era lol... he didn't get better he was always awesome) ... and bet inversely, put Hasek, Belfour, Broduer in net in the 80's and they'd see a significant drop in save percentage as well.  

 

As far as contracts go the market will determine that - but long term second contracts for promising young players seem to be the norm now.   Imagine how people would feel IF JB did 7.5 x 8 for Brock instead of a bridge (thank god he didn't have the room)?    It's not the right way to do it.   The Sedins were done properly.  ELC - 3 years - then one year to prove they could do it - then 5 then 4.    Too bad because it is an issue. It's gambling on kids to do it.  Boldy?  That was a Bold move lol.   Like the kid. But that's a lot of money.   Personally feel it's possible this blows up on everyone's faces - and eventually the NHLPA and NHL will have to fix it by limiting RFA deals.   Possibly even a cap on it the same way they have them for ELC's.     

 

Edit:  Overall, i'm just excited to see a lot more 5-4 games then 2-1, 3-2 games.   It's good for the game.   Maybe not the goalies lol.   But good for the game. 

Stick technology has allowed for the lighter guys to shoot wrist shots with more force, accuracy and on a quicker release than before.  Used to be wrist shots, which are lethal for scoring, were reserved for only the most elite.  Now these sticks allow far more guys to have effective shots.  Should have been like baseball and preserved the integrity and history of the game and kept wooden sticks.  

[IBatch]

5 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Stick technology has allowed for the lighter guys to shoot wrist shots with more force, accuracy and on a quicker release than before.  Used to be wrist shots, which are lethal for scoring, were reserved for only the most elite.  Now these sticks allow far more guys to have effective shots.  Should have been like baseball and preserved the integrity and history of the game and kept wooden sticks.  

You bet.   Imagine Al Mac giving up on his wooden sticks lol.   Wendel Clarke's wrist shot cracked helmets with a woody.    Remember the sticks that used to break all the time?   I do (first hybrid ones)   Sure Howe and Hull's would have made things awfully harder for goalies ... Imagine Bossy with these sticks today.  Or Gretzky.   Already could pick corners.   It's all relative.   Also imagine Ovi would kill it with a wooden stick and extra space against smaller goalies. 

Edited January 18, 2023 by IBatch