A Look at The Cap Situation Heading into the TDL

[HKSR]

So just a bit over a month before the TDL, and with the blockbuster Bo trade behind us.  Where do we stand? 

 

Can we retain on Boeser and be ok?

Can we retain on Myers?

What about Luke Schenn?

 

Here's what I've projected the cap situation as over the coming 3 years with a $1M cap increase next year, and only small $2M increases the following 2 years due to the Bally Sports bankruptcy issue.

 

Key Points:

- Assumption that Boeser, Myers, and Schenn are all traded by 2023-24 season

- Retention of $1.5M+ on Boeser is completely fine.  Could definitely acquire some good assets with this kind of retention.

- Could retain on Myers as well if it means acquiring better assets.

- Petey can have his massive raise to $10.5M AAV

- Small increases to other players such as Bear, Beauvillier, Joshua, Podz, Hogs, etc

 

Will we suck next year?  Most likely.  However, we will also have $10M to $12M in cap space to weaponize while allowing our prospects to develop.

 

 

TLDR:  We can retain plenty on Boeser and Myers and be completely fine.  We're likely to suck next year anyways, so retain what we need to make sure we get solid returns for Boeser, Myers, and Schenn.

[GB5]

5 minutes ago, HKSR said:

However, we will also have $10M to $12M in cap space to weaponize while allowing our prospects to develop.

There will be opportunity for this but the direction the team is taking is still not all that clear.

 

Do they want to clear cap space and obtain picks/prospects along with a bad contract or two in the short term which signals more of a rebuild approach or is the goal to shed cap and get younger and use cap for free agents to compliment the youngsters in more of a retool.

 

There are likely other scenarios as well but I think this group is not looking to weaponize cap space to rebuild. They want to get this group back to being competitive as quickly as they think possible so more of a reshuffling of the deck approach so cap space will probably be used in other ways.

[Provost]

I don't think retaining on either of those guys makes much sense.

The wildcard is Petterson and his thoughts.  If he is disillusioned seeing his friends go and no prospect of having a playoff team in the next couple years, we have to really change gears into a full rebuild including moving him in the offseason.  If he is ok for next year to be a transition phase, then it opens up some possibilities.

Myers should be easily tradeable after his bonus is paid, and even get a bit of a return for him.  Some team with an internal budget that doesn't intend on spending to the cap and doesn't want to spend the actual dollars to weaponize their cap space should look pretty positively on getting Myers for $1 million in real dollars.  He isn't a top 4 shut down guy, but is whole lot better than what you could get on the market for that price.

Boeser's deal is a year too long to retain.  We just don't want dead cap after next season as we actually have to think about competing.  If the Benning years taught us anything, it should be that wasting a million or two here and there just kills your ability to compete.  We don't have a bunch of cheap ELCs coming in the next year or two in order to have dead cap.

Schenn doesn't require retention at his cap hit.

We are likely better off using those two retained salary transaction slots we have left to weaponize our cap.  We have a crap ton of LTIR space at this deadline.  If we used that to launder money as a 3rd party in a transaction we could really get decent assets for that.  An example would be if St. Louis wanted to move Tarasenko to a team like the Rangers or another contender.  They retain 50% and trade him through us retaining another 50%... the receiving team gets Tarasenko for $1.875 million.  Both the Rangers and St. Louis could give us some sweetener to do that.

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, Provost said:

I don't think retaining on either of those guys makes much sense.

The wildcard is Petterson and his thoughts.  If he is disillusioned seeing his friends go and no prospect of having a playoff team in the next couple years, we have to really change gears into a full rebuild including moving him in the offseason.  If he is ok for next year to be a transition phase, then it opens up some possibilities.

Myers should be easily tradeable after his bonus is paid, and even get a bit of a return for him.  Some team with an internal budget that doesn't intend on spending to the cap and doesn't want to spend the actual dollars to weaponize their cap space should look pretty positively on getting Myers for $1 million in real dollars.  He isn't a top 4 shut down guy, but is whole lot better than what you could get on the market for that price.

Boeser's deal is a year too long to retain.  We just don't want dead cap after next season as we actually have to think about competing.  If the Benning years taught us anything, it should be that wasting a million or two here and there just kills your ability to compete.  We don't have a bunch of cheap ELCs coming in the next year or two in order to have dead cap.

Schenn doesn't require retention at his cap hit.

We are likely better off using those two retained salary transaction slots we have left to weaponize our cap.  We have a crap ton of LTIR space at this deadline.  If we used that to launder money as a 3rd party in a transaction we could really get decent assets for that.  An example would be if St. Louis wanted to move Tarasenko to a team like the Rangers or another contender.  They retain 50% and trade him through us retaining another 50%... the receiving team gets Tarasenko for $1.875 million.  Both the Rangers and St. Louis could give us some sweetener to do that.

I'm not sure how much cap space you're looking for, but as I've shown above, we'd have over $10M in cap to work with even with a $1.5M retention on Boeser.  At a hair over $5M AAV, Boeser would garner WAY more interest, and therefore a much better return.

 

Also, I don't think a player can have more than 50% retained overall, even with a 3rd party retention.  I could be wrong about that, but I'm pretty sure the max is 50% retained on a single player. 

[DrJockitch]

Even with retention or in the summer with bonus paid and retention I think the market for Myers is limited to something like what happened with Hamonic. A team that has trouble attracting or keeping players. Even at 3M cap hit I think this is a we pay to get rid of situation so why not continue to command the tank next year. 
‘Schenn makes minimum, that isn’t concern either way. 
Brock I would only retain what his buyout is 2.2M. Longer than would like to retain for but if could even get 3rd back would take it. I like Brock but think needs change of scenery. Most likely is swapped for a different underperforming player on similar contract. 
OEL is a recurrent nightmare and his contract almost settles the length of the tank. Too bad we didn’t get a first to take that contract, not give up a high one.  Cost us Guenther to lose Bo in part because of this boat anchor contract. 

[Provost]

4 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I'm not sure how much cap space you're looking for, but as I've shown above, we'd have over $10M in cap to work with even with a $1.5M retention on Boeser.  At a hair over $5M AAV, Boeser would garner WAY more interest, and therefore a much better return.

 

Also, I don't think a player can have more than 50% retained overall, even with a 3rd party retention.  I could be wrong about that, but I'm pretty sure the max is 50% retained on a single player. 

Nope... each transaction could have 50% retained.

[DrJockitch]

2 minutes ago, Provost said:

Nope... each transaction could have 50% retained.

So Chicago sends us Kane 50% and we send him to Boston 50% and he costs 2.5M prorated cap for the Bruins.

[HKSR]

11 minutes ago, Provost said:

Nope... each transaction could have 50% retained.

Even so, you would rather us retain $1.875M on Tarasenko to maybe get a 4th or 5th round pick out of it?  That's what Detroit got for retaining $2.125M on David Savard.

 

Same thing with Nick Foligno.  SJ retained $1.375M for a 4th round pick.

 

I'd rather retain $2M on Brock Boeser and likely move from a 2nd round pick as return to possibly a 1st round pick or a top tier prospect. 

 

Quality over quantity here for me.

 

EDIT:  Actually, looking at it from the other perspective, I'd be more willing to use a 3rd party to move Boeser and pay the extra 4th round pick if that's the going rate. 

 

Edited February 1, 2023 by HKSR

[HKSR]

4 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

So Chicago sends us Kane 50% and we send him to Boston 50% and he costs 2.5M prorated cap for the Bruins.

As I mentioned above, you don't get much for being a 3rd party.  Detroit got a measly 4th round pick for retaining $2.125M on David Savard.  So not worth it when you could retain that much on a guy like Boeser or Myers and get way more bang for the buck.

[Provost]

7 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

So Chicago sends us Kane 50% and we send him to Boston 50% and he costs 2.5M prorated cap for the Bruins.

Yes, except I would prefer Kane not to be part of our organization even for 5 minutes  :D

[Ghostsof1915]

Unless it's a 2nd rounder or better, I would hold off on trading Schenn. He's the least of our problems right now.

 

 

[Ralph.]

12 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I'm not sure how much cap space you're looking for, but as I've shown above, we'd have over $10M in cap to work with even with a $1.5M retention on Boeser.  At a hair over $5M AAV, Boeser would garner WAY more interest, and therefore a much better return.

 

Also, I don't think a player can have more than 50% retained overall, even with a 3rd party retention.  I could be wrong about that, but I'm pretty sure the max is 50% retained on a single player. 

 

7 minutes ago, Provost said:

Nope... each transaction could have 50% retained.

 

4 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

So Chicago sends us Kane 50% and we send him to Boston 50% and he costs 2.5M prorated cap for the Bruins.

I was curious to verify one way or another, and found this about Devan Dubnyk's contract from 2014:

 

https://colliganhockey.com/nhl-cba-retained-salary-trades/

 

Quote

 

Real Example: Devan Dubnyk’s cross-continent travels in 2014 demonstrated a number of these provisions:

 

Jan 15, 2014: Dubnyk was traded from Edmonton to Nashville.
Edmonton retained 50% of his salary, or $1.75M of the $3.5M total.

March 5, 2014: Dubnyk was traded from Nashville to Montreal.
Nashville retained 25% of his salary (which applies to the original total).  Therefore, the Predators retained $0.875M.

March 5, 2014: Dubnyk was immediately demoted to Montreal’s AHL affiliate in Hamilton.
After the demotion, he didn’t count against Montreal’s cap but he did still count against Edmonton’s ($1.75M) and Nashville’s ($0.875M).

CBA Reference: 50.5 (e-iii) Pages 271-274

 

[Provost]

3 minutes ago, HKSR said:

As I mentioned above, you don't get much for being a 3rd party.  Detroit got a measly 4th round pick for retaining $2.125M on David Savard.  So not worth it when you could retain that much on a guy like Boeser or Myers and get way more bang for the buck.

Five minutes ago you didn't even believe this type of transaction was allowed...

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, Provost said:

Five minutes ago you didn't even believe this type of transaction was allowed...

And THIS is what you latch onto?

 

"Also, I don't think a player can have more than 50% retained overall, even with a 3rd party retention.  I could be wrong about that, but I'm pretty sure the max is 50% retained on a single player.  "

 

At least I'm humble enough to not state opinions as fact like some people around here. 

[HKSR]

3 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Unless it's a 2nd rounder or better, I would hold off on trading Schenn. He's the least of our problems right now.

 

 

Yeah, he's not a necessary move.  Boeser and Myers are though.

[Ghostsof1915]

Myers might have to wait until after his bonus is paid. Might be easier to move him in the offseason.

Garland or Brock makes sense.

[HKSR]

3 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Myers might have to wait until after his bonus is paid. Might be easier to move him in the offseason.

Garland or Brock makes sense.

Yeah, I posted this in the Proposals forum... but this is my thought:

 

With the realization of the going rate of 3rd party retention on a transaction, here is where I think we should go with Boeser:

 

To VAN: (retain 25% on Boeser - $1,662,500 retained)

1st round pick

 

To 3rd Party: (retain 50% on remainder - $2,493,750)

4th round pick --- this seems to be the going rate for retention, likely because there's no actual dollars that need to be paid (see Savard and Foligno deals as examples)

 

To Contender:

Boeser at $2,493,750 AAV for 2 years

 

So essentially we trade Boeser+4th for a 1st with $1.663M retained.

 

Likewise, we could probably do something similar with Garland and also get a very solid pick or prospect back without paying too much to do so.

[DownUndaCanuck]

I'd be happy retaining up to 1.5-2M on Boeser or Myers if it gets them moved. You throw in Schenn to any deal with Boeser (with 1-2M retained) and that's a great package for any team. They'd still need to give us around 5M in cap coming back to make it work, but there's plenty of teams out there.

 

I know NJD have talked about trading Severson/letting him go, so Boeser (2M retained) + Schenn for Severson + pick would work nicely. However Severson is still pretty good and logging big minutes so I think all we'd get is a 2nd round pick or maybe a prospect Bahl would be nice...).

 

I think Minnesota makes sense. Boeser (2M retained) + Schenn for Dumba + 1st would be perfect. Minnesota go all in, they were going to let Dumba walk this off-season anyway, he's been a healthy scratch recently too. They get a solid playoff warrior in Schenn who plays D the right way and their man in Boeser to help Kaprizov run the offence a bit more balanced since Fiala left. Boeser at a 4.5M cap hit is delicious for them and worthy of their 19-20th overall pick.

 

Myers will be a tough cookie to swallow but sounds like Toronto or Ottawa are keen. I wouldn't retain on multiple players but we do have 2.4M in dead cap opening up so could retain 1M of Myers' money comfortably if it means we don't have to shed a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Even so, with Minny's 1st I'd do it.

 

All up:

 

1) Boeser (2m retained) + Schenn for Dumba + 1st

2) Myers (1m retained) + 3rd to Ottawa/Toronto for cap dump

 

In the off-season we can decide on Dumba, if he plays Bear-like we can re-sign him, otherwise he walks. We free up 10M in cap space right there.

 

If we want to rebuild, rebuild away with three first round picks.

If we want to push for the playoffs next year, sign two solid top-4 defencemen. There's guys like Gavrikov, Graves and Mayfield out there. 10M can secure two of them easily and away we go.

 

Mikheyev - Pettersson - Kuzmenko

Beauvillier - Miller - Garland

Hoglander - Raty? - Podkolzin

Joshua - Lazar - Aman?

 

Hughes - Mayfield

Gavrikov - Bear

OEL - Burroughs

[DrJockitch]

1 hour ago, HKSR said:

As I mentioned above, you don't get much for being a 3rd party.  Detroit got a measly 4th round pick for retaining $2.125M on David Savard.  So not worth it when you could retain that much on a guy like Boeser or Myers and get way more bang for the buck.

That was before flat cap era. More valuable now. 
‘Was just an example anyway. 

[HKSR]

10 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

That was before flat cap era. More valuable now. 
‘Was just an example anyway. 

These were all in 2020 or 2021:

 

Toronto retained $2.5M on Robin Lehner and got a 5th round pick out of it:  https://www.capfriendly.com/trades/players/robin-lehner

Detroit retained $2.125M on David Savard and got a 4th round pick out of it.  https://www.capfriendly.com/trades/players/david-savard

SJ retained $1.375M on Nick Foligno and got a 4th round pick out of it:  https://www.capfriendly.com/trades/players/nick-foligno

SJ retained $1.125M on Mattias Janmark and got a 5th round pick out of it:  https://www.capfriendly.com/trades/players/mattias-janmark