Canuck Goaltending: What gives and where to from here?

[JamesB]

The current goaltending situation has surprised pretty much everyone, At the start of the season who thought that after 50 games.

 

a. The #1 goalie would be Collin Delia

b. The Canucks would have the lowest save percentage in the NHL.

c. There would be credible rumours of trade talks regarding Demko.

 

So what is going on? Here are some thoughts and I would be very interested in other comments.

 

1. Demko injuries.

At the end of last season Demko stopped playing because of injury, indicating that the injury had occurred earlier but he kept playing until playoff hopes were pretty much gone. He said he might or might not get surgery. We heard nothing more until training camp when we learned that did have surgery in the summer and that he was "ready to play".

 

Demko got off to a terrible start. Much of the discussion on CDC put the blame on the defence, which gave up too many high quality chances. But "Evolving Hockey" makes some attempt to correct for shot quality. In their database Demko ranks 75th out of 79 goalies who have played at least 2 games.  (His save percentage is also among the worst in the  league.)

 

It is hard to believe a goalie can decline so quickly unless injury is playing a role.

 

Then he got injured again at the beginning of December and was supposed to be out 6 weeks. It is now 11 weeks and counting and he is still not back.

 

The team has said very little about his injuries. It is all a mystery.

 

2. Other goalies. Spencer Martin did a good job as a backup last year. This year, after being put in the starter role, he struggled. His numbers are even worse than Demko's as he ranks 2nd to last in the Evolving hockey list of 79 goalies.  Delia has been a lot better and ranks 51 on the Evolving Hockey list and, unlike Demko and Martin, is at least significantly above "replacement level".

 

3. Trade Rumours. I don't get the trade rumours regarding Demko.  First, no one would trade for Demko until he shows he his healthy, so any trade must be a ways off. Second, it is not like the Canucks have anyone ready to take over. Neither Martin nor Delia is good enough to be the starter on a good team. Silovs has made progress in Abby but, even if things go well, is at least two years away.

 

4.There has been speculation that the Canucks might sign Tristan Jarry. He is playing well for Pittsburgh and is a UFA after this year. He is from the the Vancouver area and it is believed he would like to come back.  But this has to be a longshot.

 

Bottom line: The Canucks have had excellent goaltending for many years before this year. This year the team has been unlucky on the goaltending front. One way or another I would expect regression to the mean next year and that alone would improve team performance a lot  In fact, if Demko comes back and is healthy the Canucks might to do well enough this year to weaken their draft position. That might be one reason the Canucks are holding him out. It certainly makes no sense to put him at risk.

 

Thanks for reading.

[Nuxfanabroad]

Maybe they're holding TD back from this wk's hectic sched, with some competitive teams. Starting Feb 11th in Det, we've got 8 tilts over 19 days, against several beatable clubs.

 

There's no incentive to win now..PO's are out, & they'll only worsen draft position. However, if TD slots in the back half of Feb & looks great, they'll have 2 nice options to weigh. Either go into next season, confident we'll vastly improve our 'tending numbers; or sell at a very competitive TDL(parity ensuring several teams are jockeying for WC spots), provided some desperate team will pay through the nose for TD's elite level.

 

Hope they only sell if there's an obscene overpay, with a brilliant young 'tender in the return pkg.

[Alflives]

Demko is top five in the league.  

[Ilunga]

37 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Demko is top five in the league.  

It never fails to amaze me the lack of loyalty in some people.

 

Less than 6 months ago, franchise Goalie, core piece, bargain contract.

Now an injury, bit of a form slump and there is talk of trading him annddd expecting a king's ransome in return.....sigh.....

 

 

 

 

Edited February 8 by Ilunga

[Kevin Biestra]

3 hours ago, Ilunga said:

It never fails to amaze me the lack of loyalty in some people.

 

Less than 6 months ago, franchise Goalie, core piece, bargain contract.

Now an injury, bit of a form slump and there is talk of trading him annddd expecting a king's ransome in return.....sigh.....

 

I've mentioned this story before in the past but in 1990-91 Kirk McLean was outplayed by Troy Gamble.  Kirk McLean had been a Vezina finalist in 1989, had taken the Stanley Cup champion Flames to 7th game OT in 1989 and had led the league in games and minutes in 1990.  But in 1990-91 he was very average and Troy Gamble came in and was promising and effective enough that he ended up with about 60% of the starts.  The city largely turned on McLean and wanted him traded and to roll forward with Gamble.

 

As I have also said, McLean did the exact opposite of what Roberto Luongo did when the team first started using Corey Schneider as the starter.  Didn't pout or ask for a trade or say his contract sucked.  Just focused in the off season and over the next three seasons (1991-92 to 1993-94) Kirk McLean was a Vezina finalist again, a second team all star, led the league in wins, finished 4th in voting for the Hart Trophy ahead of Art Ross winner Mario Lemieux, led the Canucks to two division championships and went to the Stanley Cup final.  If the fans had had their way...they would have spent those years with no starter really since Troy Gamble started to immediately decline and fairly soon retired with concussion problems.  After that year where he unseated Kirk McLean as the starter, he only played 19 more NHL games in his entire career.

 

To be fair to Gamble I think he would have been a pretty good goalie without the concussions, but not Kirk McLean good.  Something more like Greg Millen good...maybe.

 

But all of that said...Demko has yet to even match 1989 Kirk McLean in terms of track record.  I think he was prematurely anointed a top five NHL goalie.  He had a magnificent part of one playoffs.  But I also recently mentioned John Druce and Chris Kontos, who became legends for a year or two with one great playoff performance each...then soon both weren't even NHLers at all.

 

 

Edited February 8 by Kevin Biestra

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

I've mentioned this story before in the past but in 1990-91 Kirk McLean was outplayed by Troy Gamble.  Kirk McLean had been a vezina finalist in 1989, had taken the Stanley Cup champion Flames to 7th game OT in 1989 and had led the league in games and minutes in 1990.  But in 1990-91 he was very average and Troy Gamble came in and was promising and effective enough that he ended up with about 60% of the starts.  The city largely turned on McLean and wanted him traded and to roll forward with Gamble.

 

As I have also said, McLean did the exact opposite of what Roberto Luongo did when the team first started using Corey Schneider as the starter.  Didn't pout or ask for a trade or say his contract sucked.  Just focused in the off season and over the next three seasons (1991-92 to 1993-94) Kirk McLean was a Vezina finalist again, a second team all star, led the league in wins, led the Canucks to two division championships and went to the Stanley Cup final.  If the fans had had their way...they would have spent those years with no starter really since Troy Gamble started to immediately decline and fairly soon retired with concussion problems.  After that year where he unseated Kirk McLean as the starter, he only played 19 more NHL games in his entire career.

 

To be fair to Gamble I think he would have been a pretty good goalie without the concussions, but not Kirk McLean good.  Something more like Greg Millen or Tim Cheveldae good.

 

But all of that said...Demko has yet to even match 1989 Kirk McLean in terms of track record.  I think he was prematurely anointed a top five NHL goalie.  He had a magnificent part of one playoffs.  But I also recently mentioned John Druce and Chris Kontos, who became legends for a year or two with one great playoff performance each...then soon both weren't even NHLers at all.

 

 

I think it’s Kevin Woodly, a 650 guest who is a goalie expert, that said Demko had a top three save % above expected before he got injured. Once he’s back healthy, he will be fabulous again. 

[#Canucks]

Do what you can to keep Demko, whatever it takes. If Demko leaves, I bet his coach follows.

[ItalianCanuck1]

- What do we have in Artur Silovs? 

- Does Demko's prime fit with our rebuilding / retooling timeline?

 

IF the front-office and Ian Clark are high on Silovs and they think we're 4 years away to contend, then a trade makes perfectly sense.

Silovs will be 24 when this team when the new core will be in his prime.

[OldFaithfulCap]

NHL.com, sportsnet and other sites do a terrible job of including backup and other stats in the main area. I've been manually adding in Delia's stats for weeks now and it's kinda depressing watching his numbers (and martin's) get worse but it does sum up the season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 8 by OldFaithfulCap
s

[Sativika]

7 hours ago, JamesB said:

.............Bottom line: The Canucks have had excellent goaltending for many years before this year. This year the team has been unlucky on the goaltending front. One way or another I would expect regression to the mean next year and that alone would improve team performance a lot  In fact, if Demko comes back and is healthy the Canucks might to do well enough this year to weaken their draft position. That might be one reason the Canucks are holding him out. It certainly makes no sense to put him at risk.

 

Thanks for reading.

This!

It's obvious that Martin cannot handle the load of a #1 and certainly Delia wasn't meant to be a full time NHL backup for us. And as sh#tty as this may sound, they're both doing admirable jobs of losing. To put it another way......They're doing what's expected of them, but can only do so much with the poor D corp we have. This helps with the tank for Bedard sweepstakes for sure!

 

As I mentioned in other Canuck Goalie oriented threads in CDC; I dunno if what I've read regarding Demmer's unhappiness in Van and/or the Canucks organizations is just rumour or truth but as it stands, dude's still a Canuck! The team friendly contract he agreed to was signed during better times for him. Now he's dealing with a setback regarding injury and poor play. In life as a professional athlete, it's certainly nothing new and it sucks for him to be sure. 

 

He's probably itching to get back in the lineup as any pro athlete would. However the best way forward right now, is for our franchise goalie to heal up and let tank nation come to fruition. I'm not saying management is holding him back deliberately. But perhaps being cautionary in regards to returning to full-time  play from injury too quickly. Lord knows that our Canucks D will work his ass off upon his return. And we certainly don't want any further damage, right?

 

To be honest, I was surprised to hear of trade rumour talk around Demmer. I'm pretty sure JR stated that he was one of the untouchables awhile back. What's changed?!?!?!??

[jyu]

The years between McLean and Luongo were painful.

 

All I gotta say is, whatever we do, we must avoid repeating the goalie graveyard.

 

Signing Jarry is fine if we are trading Demko. But heading into next season without a #1G is suicide.

 

It's not about winning but having a chance to win and without a #1G, we quickly go down the Edmonton Oilers route.

 

[Bob.Loblaw]

When you look at the strongest prospect pools in the NHL, some of those teams didn't build through top picks.  They drafted the right players and developed them properly.  Minnesota is ranked #1 in prospects because they've figured it out.  It's on Canucks management to do the same.  Demko providing wins (or losses) won't change that.

[grumpyone]

I may not be the smartest amateur gm, but I would trade Demko asap for a reasonable return.

give Delia a raise for next year, and run with Delia and Martin next season, maybe two and by that time Silovs should be ready to take the role of nhl backup for 1 season or 2 and then the starters role. 

 

if we could finagle a decent rd for demko, do it. the money saved could go to solidifying the d core.

anybody think about McCabe as a dman from chicago? 2 more years @ 4 and he's only 29 and eats a lot of minutes as a stay at home dman. maybe they could be interested in Garland or ???

 

[RUPERTKBD]

I'm ready for a true rebuild. We've been trying the "retool" thing forever and it's not working.

 

That being said, I wouldn't move Demmer unless there was a legit offer in return. It would have to be something that impacts the future significantly. We can ride the Martin - Delia tandem for a while, or sign a FA to take some of those games until Silovs is ready for prime time.

[Coconuts]

14 hours ago, Alflives said:

Demko is top five in the league.  

Is he though? He certainly hasn't been this season. We'll see how he bounces back. 

 

One could argue he's been surpassed by Sorokin and Shesterkin. Hellebuyck has been elite. Oettinger is another young newcomer having a fantastic season. Vasilevski is Vasilevki. He's definitely not above any of those five this season. 

 

If Demko wants to be viewed that way again he'll have to come back and earn it. Wasn't all on our defense and forwards, and I was a Demko apologist earlier on in the season. We're two and a half seasons removed from the bubble now and Demko's track record of being a top tender isn't actually very extensive, he's only got two seasons of having been a full-time starter. He was good both seasons, phenomenal last season even, but his performance this season raises questions. 

 

 https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=146146

 

 

Edited February 8 by Coconuts

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Is he though? He certainly hasn't been this season. We'll see how he bounces back. 

 

One could argue he's been surpassed by Sorokin and Shesterkin. Hellebuyck has been elite. Oettinger is another young newcomer having a fantastic season. Vasilevski is Vasilevki. He's definitely not above any of those five this season. 

 

If Demko wants to be viewed that way again he'll have to come back and earn it. Wasn't all on our defense and forwards, and I was a Demko apologist earlier on in the season. We're three and a half seasons removed from the bubble now and Demko's track record of being a top tender isn't actually very extensive, he's only got two seasons of having been a full-time starter. He was good both seasons, phenomenal last season even, but his performance this season raises questions. 

 

 https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=146146

 

 

When healthy Demko had top five save % above expected.  We need to keep him. 

[Coconuts]

Just now, Alflives said:

When healthy Demko had top five save % above expected.  We need to keep him. 

No guarantee he returns to form, goaltender injuries are tricky. They've clearly been pretty hush hush about him and the timeline has gone longer than originally expected. We don't even know anything about his injury right now. 

 

I don't think skepticism is unwarranted. Or concern or questions about our goaltending going forward. 

[Alflives]

10 minutes ago, RUPERTKBD said:

I'm ready for a true rebuild. We've been trying the "retool" thing forever and it's not working.

 

That being said, I wouldn't move Demmer unless there was a legit offer in return. It would have to be something that impacts the future significantly. We can ride the Martin - Delia tandem for a while, or sign a FA to take some of those games until Silovs is ready for prime time.

Trading Bo for futures is the first true rebuilding move we’ve made since this owner bought the club. Kessler was close but the return was two experienced guys and a very late first.  Maybe our owner is finally listening to his POHO?  

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Coconuts said:

No guarantee he returns to form, goaltender injuries are tricky. They've clearly been pretty hush hush about him and the timeline has gone longer than originally expected. We don't even know anything about his injury right now. 

 

I don't think skepticism is unwarranted. Or concern or questions about our goaltending going forward. 

Yup.  Definitely worries about Demko’s health. But when healthy, he’s tops.  

[RUPERTKBD]

6 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Trading Bo for futures is the first true rebuilding move we’ve made since this owner bought the club. Kessler was close but the return was two experienced guys and a very late first.  Maybe our owner is finally listening to his POHO?  

I think Canucks' management has long held this belief that the fanbase won't accept a true rebuild and that the team would take a huge financial hit.....and they may have been correct.

 

That being said, I think the Horvat - Miller situation and the Boudreau fiasco, (combined with awful defensive play and a historically bad PK) may have finally pushed Canuck fans into the "anything is preferable to perpetually striving for mediocrity" camp.

 

I was ready to do it in 2014. Now, almost a decade later, I am once again hoping for a do-over, rather than a do-again.....