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[Proposal] Vancouver - Washington


Ralph.

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Let's make a splash.

 

Been a long time since I've made a thread, but oh boy are things getting interesting with this team. Lots of changes, and it's pretty clearly time for some significant ones to be made. We all know where this team struggles, and what has to do be done to get back on track; Obviously it won't happen over night ("rebuild the defence!"). I've been trying to look around the league for young, upcoming RHDs to try to poach, which is never easy as they are essentially gold. However, I think there might be something to be done with the Capitals surrounding Vincent Iorio, a player I really like and, to me, could be a central piece of a trade (as well as a draft pick, in this case). We have some cap space to use now, and they need to make some to bring back Carlson soon. So, without further adieu, here is an idea:

 

First off, move Pearson to LTIR already. He's not coming back this season. After that, a nice juicy trade for the media:

 

Quote

 

To Washington:

  • Michael Ferland - $3,500,000 on LTIR
  • Luke Schenn - $850,000
  • Brock Boeser - $3,325,000 (50% retained – ouch, I know)
  • Jack Rathbone - $850,000 (non-roster)

 

To Vancouver:

  • Anthony Mantha - $5,700,000
  • Martin Fehérváry - $791,667
  • Vincent Iorio - $845,000 (non-roster)
  • 2023 1st Round Pick

 

 

Lots of moving pieces, but it solves some problems for both sides.

 

 

Why Washington considers this:

  • Boeser replaces Mantha on their third RW (according to recent dailyfaceoff lineups). Mantha has not been producing at the level I think Washington expected when they traded for him in 2021. Similarly to Boeser, he takes up a lot of cap for what he's bringing. Considering Kuznetsov is their acting 3C (Strome playing with Ovie & Sheary on line 1, Backstrom as 2C between Oshie & Johansson), Boeser at the price would be a very welcome upgrade. This sheds $2.375M in cap, while potentially upgrading their winger depth.
  • Schenn, well, everyone here knows what he brings and how any team would be lucky to have him. With Carlson coming back, Schenn would bolster their RHD depth while they try to keep winning while they still have their Ovechkin-era core, at least for this season. With his experience, he could even move up to their 2nd RHD spot ahead of Van Riemsdyk and Jensen.
  • Both sides of their D are aging out, and Iorio is really their only substantial, signed prospect. While he could/should be worth more than Rathbone (RHD vs. LHD), they'll need LHD as well. Swapping these two basically allows them to add more perceived value to Vancouver, as we desperately need to rebuild our right side. This while they still end up with a D prospect for either side that they will need to step in, regardless of L/R. Fehérváry is included in this trade essentially to make room for Schenn on their right side, as he has been playing there with Matt Irwin on the left. However, he is 23 and listed as a LD, so if they want to retain some youth with him and move him back to the left, swap him out for one of their other expiring LDs (all of their D expire this year, except for Carlson). Basically, the Rathbone-Iorio aspect of this trade is relatively neutral to Washington, and positive for Vancouver. Rathbone is closer to the NHL, and as mentioned, most of their D expires after this season, leaving it wide open for him to make the team next year.

 

Why Vancouver does this:

  • We're tanking, Mantha is underperforming. That's fine, if we plan on sucking this year and next anyway. At 28, he's a stop-gap, resulting in better picks for us. Or, he ups his game and becomes another deadline sale next season. His contract expires after 2023-24, when we need to re-sign Petey and Kuzmenko, so it will be $5.7M we can reallocate at that point.
  • We basically "weaponize cap space" to shift a great LHD prospect to a great RHD prospect. Iorio is 20 years old, 6'-3", 201 lbs, and from Coquitlam. Isn't the highest point-getter, but certainly fits the mould of "tough to play against."
  • All this drama surrounding Boeser ends. I think most of us love the guy, it's just he's not bringing what we all expected at this point and could use the change of scenery. A necessary casualty of the "culture change." His dead cap for the next two years basically replaces the dead cap we have expiring from the Virtanen/Holtby buyouts + Bo's retention.
  • 2023 1st round pick – this is where I think the value balance is decided. I'm sure many of you will say, "No way! A first rounder for our junk parts? You're dreaming!" I have listed this as a First Rounder because obviously for us, that is ideal. However, I think there could be a fair debate that this pick could be anywhere from a 1st-4th rounder (in 2023-2025), existing to balance out the rest of the trade. So before hanging me for overvaluing our "junk," consider that it's a pretty open variable of the trade; downgrade as you see fit. It's listed on "Why Vancouver does this" list because obviously, a pick is always positive.

 

So. Running this through all the CapFriendly calculators and such, this all fits under our cap, meets trade and roster requirements, and allows the Capitals to activate Carlson to their active roster. Potential lineups for both teams would be (of course, switch wingers and defensemen around based on whatever is going on with either team):

 

Washington:

 

Ovechkin - Strome - Sheary

Johansson - Backstrom - Oshie

Milano - Kuznetsov - Boeser

Aubé-Kubel - Eller - Hathaway

Wilson

 

Gustafsson - Carlson (on return)

Orlov - *Van Riemsdyk

Matt Irwin - *Jensen

*Schenn

 

Kemper

Lindgren

 

Rathbone to AHL

Ferland to LTIR

 

Vancouver:

 

Beauvillier - Pettersson - Mantha

Podkolzin - Miller - Garland

Joshua - Dries - Kuzmenko

Di Guiseppe - Aman - Lazar

Studnicka

 

Hughes - Myers

OEL - Bear

Fehérváry (back on LD) - Dermott

Stillman-Burroughs

 

Martin

Delia

 

Iorio to AHL

Late 2023 1st Rounder

 

 

I think that's a pretty good playoff roster for Washington if they're looking to keep up with some of the teams around them. We can muddle around a bit more this and next year. We will have to find a way to make some space in the offseason, however. Trade Myers for magic beans, and/or Garland for another pick.

 

Loosely, I see this as:

 

Mantha + 2023 1st Rounder = Boeser (cheap) and Ferland on LTIR (ability to activate Carlson without further... headaches)

Schenn + Rathbone = Iorio + Fehérváry (or Irwin)

 

Ehhhhh?

 

* I should add that I know people are probably going to say, "Mantha was traded for Vrana + Panik + a 2021 First + 2022 2nd! No WAY they trade him for Boeser and an LTIR dump!" To that I say – well, that sounds like a WSH problem. They goofed a trade just like we did with OEL; doesn't mean they were valued properly at the time, and it shouldn't have any bearing on their value now. They need to clear space for Carlson, Mantha is probably the easiest out. It's him or Oshie/Wilson (both of which have M-NTCs), and we could take either one of them in exchange if they wanted that as well.

 

Edited by Ralph.
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Interesting.  Seeing how Boeser > Mantha, plus we're trading a player for them to stash LTIR space, and then say if we consider Rathbone = Iorio, and Schenn is probably around the same value as Fehervary (pending UFA but likely in demand for a promising LHD), I would do this trade if the Caps would give up a 1st for all these marginal gains in value (0.8 points/ game for BB > 0.5 for AM, Schenn's a top-4 RHD).

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I think it is safe to say we all think Boeser is a great person/teammate.  I think it is also safe to say he has underperformed this year.  However, it is also important to note that, while underperforming, he is still the 15th highest scoring RW in the league.  He is 22nd overall with limited pp time.  He is heating up right now and, I think, will be a top 15 scoring RW in the league by season's end.  So in a league that has roughly 128 players playing RW he is top 20 for sure.  This means he is a 1st line RW.   He is the 17th highest paid RW in the league and has been the 15th highest scoring RW over the past 4.5 years.

 

I am not saying we should not move him for the right package, just that we should discuss him like a top line player and not like a cap dump.

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4 minutes ago, Dixon Ward said:

I think it is safe to say we all think Boeser is a great person/teammate.  I think it is also safe to say he has underperformed this year.  However, it is also important to note that, while underperforming, he is still the 15th highest scoring RW in the league.  He is 22nd overall with limited pp time.  He is heating up right now and, I think, will be a top 15 scoring RW in the league by season's end.  So in a league that has roughly 128 players playing RW he is top 20 for sure.  This means he is a 1st line RW.   He is the 17th highest paid RW in the league and has been the 15th highest scoring RW over the past 4.5 years.

 

I am not saying we should not move him for the right package, just that we should discuss him like a top line player and not like a cap dump.

I would agree with this. The way people are looking at him value-wise is all because of his contract, which I think most of us agree is too high a cost for what he's bringing. It's also why this trade includes the max retention. At half price, he is an exceptional value that I think is worth that first round pick (certainly not a cap dump), especially for two additional years. Any reference to a "dump" in my post should be attributed to Ferland's LTIR contract (which may not fit everyone's definition of a dump these days), or Mantha, as he is underperforming and holds his full cap hit.

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