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17 Months (discussion)


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Well, here we are. I think alot of people after last year, thought we would had taken a step forward, after competing so well under BB. Well certainly we did do that, but it was influenced by outstanding goaltending from Thatcher Demko. I, myself was fooled, although, I seen and constantly talked about our RHD being weak. I just did not realize exactly how weak. Nor how Demko had covered up much of the hole. 

 

In saying all that, we are now 1 loss away from the 5th worse team in the league and 3 away from 4th. There is not a chance in hell, we make the playoffs, and winning can only rob us of the ability of having a real good draft, where we actually have a chance at Bedard, Fanilli, Carlsson. All 3 centers would be projected first over all picks in most drafts, and all 3 would allow Pettersson to move to wing, and create a super line, that dominates every shift. But that is only one pick, and one draft, and does not address our main RHD problem. Now I am not proposing ever trading Bedard if we got him, but it certainly opens up the conversation, of a few chess moves, with the other 2, and maybe even Michkov, who is another discussion.

 

I personally, do not want another winger, even one who is as good as Michkov, or the lesser ones, which are in the middle of the top 10 of the 2023 draft. IMO, we have to be aggressive in our rebuild, and we need to go after a true blue chip RHD. Landing one of the top 4, could open up that possibility, but we need to ride out the current season, and not attempt in anyway to improve the team, via trading for veteran help. Nor should it be our focus to sign a RHD for next year, that may or may not change the outcome of next years rebuild or draft position.

 

Yes, we are wasting a year of Pettersson, and Hughes, but we need the proper pieces to complete the rebuild, so that we do not climb half the way up the ladder and then stall. If you look around, at the western teams, you see Vegas, Edmonton, Cagary, and LA already in position to compete, and upstart Seattle, has had a beautiful start to their franchise. Anaheim ihas the start of their rebuild in place and will this year add additional pieces. Well that pretty much leaves San Jose and ourselves, fighting for the crumbs.

 

I suggest, we continue with toiling down at the bottom for one more season (17 more months), collecting much needed pieces, and at the same time, clearing cap, as Myers finishes his last season, and leaves at the end of his contract, instead of buying him out. At the same time, it is my opinion that the New York Islanders are in exactly the same spot, where they will have a very difficult time moving up the standings. I certainly do not see them breaking into the top 10 or 12 teams in the league, and I have my doubts they can even make the playoffs, so IMO, whether their pick is used this year or next, I don't see it changing much, so the pick acquired in the Bo Horvat deal, should in good position. Further more, if we do this right, and not attempt to correct out problems with short term UFA signings. We should be in a spot to draft an important player in the 2024 draft. (as I think we would be still top 5, with some really good players in a deep draft)

 

My suggestion, would be to make trades, after acquiring the next 2 years picks, where we would have the assets from this and next years draft to dangle in front of greedy GM's. I am not suggesting trading them for old players, but for 22 or 23 year old players, that have already been battle tested, and who match up with Pettersson and Hughes, who will be in their prime and ready to compete for the cup. That is when you fill in the needed pieces, that is when you trade a 1st round pick. not before getting the major pieces in place.

 

I fall back to Burke, and his ability to acquire the Sedin picks. Yes, we all know how that turned out and how that commitment put in place the building blocks for years to come. We have plenty of really good pieces, and we have an abundance of scoring wingers, so as we build, we can move some of them out, for additional assets.

 

My presentation is a little "Helter Skelter", but that is kind of where we are today......we need to draft strong, rid ourselves of aging UFA's, and fill holes.........not an easy thing to do all in one year, as some expect. Buyouts are dangerous and debilitating, as they totally handcuff future years, if your plan actually works out.

 

My message? Stay the course for 17 months, painful as it may be! Let the fall and the contracts expire naturally. Let's look at OEL in a couple of years. Maybe he retires!

 

"IF" we we get into the top 3. Great! Pick a center....................

"IF" we end up 6th or 7th.........Pick a center, unless Reinbacker ends up top 10

"IF" Reinbacker moves up in the standings, like some are predicting, then others will fall. it is a win win! Take him early. If he doesn't, take him late.

"IF" the Islander use their pick, great, that is 2 lottery picks for next year, in a deep draft.

"IF" the Islanders don't, then we get a top 15 pick this year, in a deep draft. It also means we have a chance at Reinbacker with the later pick if he does not move up.

 

IMO, "IF" we relax, and take our lumps, we end up a better place.

 

Trade Boeser.....value? a late 1st or 2 seconds...........maybe a million or so retention (It is only 2 years!) IMO, we are in a good spot, if we do not panic!

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by J.I.A.H.N
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Great post. 

 

Couple things. 

7 minutes ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

Trade Boeser.....value? a late 1st or 2 seconds...........maybe a million or so retention (It is only 2 years!) IMO, we are in a good spot, if we do not panic!

Value maybe a 3rd and a contract. Like you say don't panic in the next 2 years we won't be winning anything so ride it out and hope for the best. He's a great guy and team mate the contract is terrible he isn't terrible he's a very talented player hopefully he finds more desire to play than he displays in da beauty league. 

 

14 minutes ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

I personally, do not want another winger, even one who is as good as Michkov, or the lesser ones, which are in the middle of the top 10 of the 2023 draft. IMO, we have to be aggressive in our rebuild, and we need to go after a true blue chip RHD. Landing one of the top 4, could open up that possibility, but we need to ride out the current season, and not attempt in anyway to improve the team, via trading for veteran help. Nor should it be our focus to sign a RHD for next year, that may or may not change the outcome of next years rebuild or draft position.

Don't be silly take Michkov.

 

Reinbacher is your guy but is he the guy???? Seems a bit shy size and skill for sure positional need absolutely but as we have seen with Brock is the will?? You can have all the talent in the world no gutz no glory. The NYI pick sure but ours 

 

28 minutes ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

I fall back to Bourke, and his ability to acquire the Sedin picks. Yes, we all know how that turned out and how that commitment put in place the building blocks for years to come. We have plenty of really good pieces, and we have an abundance of scoring wingers, so as we build, we can move some of them out, for additional assets.

the muppets cooking GIF

 

Great nick name Bourke the swedish chef who brought us the Sedins.

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1 hour ago, hammertime said:

Great post. 

 

Couple things. 

Value maybe a 3rd and a contract. Like you say don't panic in the next 2 years we won't be winning anything so ride it out and hope for the best. He's a great guy and team mate the contract is terrible he isn't terrible he's a very talented player hopefully he finds more desire to play than he displays in da beauty league. 

 

Don't be silly take Michkov.

 

Reinbacher is your guy but is he the guy???? Seems a bit shy size and skill for sure positional need absolutely but as we have seen with Brock is the will?? You can have all the talent in the world no gutz no glory. The NYI pick sure but ours 

 

the muppets cooking GIF

 

Great nick name Bourke the swedish chef who brought us the Sedins.

With this draft being so deep, I wonder how these players compare to other drafts. What I have been hearing is that all 4 would be #1 picks in other drafts. And yes, I would be all over Michkov also..........but he is absolutely not what we need. Look at other top 5 in recent drafts. All the rankings are is a best case guess of who would be the best, and who would develop his whole potential. It is not a guarantee, any would. Only a best case guess.

 

I will go further to illustrate this..........if you look at the draft rankings in September, in December and again at the draft, and you will see player movements. All the final draft rankings are is a snap shot in time, as to that best case scenario. Even in redrafts year to year, players change order, albeit, the are in the league and closer to their final position.

 

The final rankings see Europeans move the most, because it is when all their info culminates, and a final picture is drawn up. It is why Seider moved up the rankings so late and so high.......

 

I am hoping Reinbacker is such a player and his ranking moves closer. It is not a certainty, for sure, but "IF" he moves up into the top 10, then he becomes a legitimate target for our first. If he doesn't, then he will probably be there for the Island pick. Personally, I would move up and spend the capital, because he is big enough to play as a top defensive defenseman, with some potential offensive upside, which exactly what Hughes needs. ( Opinion only.....in a deep draft if a players is top 10, he is a damn good player, and if defense is his main go to and still there, well, he is a elite Chris Tanev type player......but again, only a guess!)

 

And yes, I can not count how many times I have put the "O" into Burke. I have a friend that is with the "O" and my pee size brain just goes there........so have your fun! LOL :P

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8 minutes ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

With this draft being so deep, I wonder how these players compare to other drafts.

Interesting thought

 

Top 5 - combining this and the last 2 Drafts?

 

1. Bedard

2. Beniers

3. Power

4. Slafkovsky

5. Fantilli

HM: McTavish

Edited by NUCKER67
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5 hours ago, hammertime said:

Great post. 

 

Couple things. 

Value maybe a 3rd and a contract. Like you say don't panic in the next 2 years we won't be winning anything so ride it out and hope for the best. He's a great guy and team mate the contract is terrible he isn't terrible he's a very talented player hopefully he finds more desire to play than he displays in da beauty league. 

 

Don't be silly take Michkov.

 

Reinbacher is your guy but is he the guy???? Seems a bit shy size and skill for sure positional need absolutely but as we have seen with Brock is the will?? You can have all the talent in the world no gutz no glory. The NYI pick sure but ours 

 

the muppets cooking GIF

 

Great nick name Bourke the swedish chef who brought us the Sedins.

Gotta agree with this assessment of Boeser. At this stage I think he'd get a 3rd with some salary retention. Most teams are looking at how his career is going, and I don't think any contender would take a chance on that.

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17 hours ago, Mollyworld said:

Gotta agree with this assessment of Boeser. At this stage I think he'd get a 3rd with some salary retention. Most teams are looking at how his career is going, and I don't think any contender would take a chance on that.

Boeser is on target for a 66 point season..........contract aside..........a 25 year old, 66 point RW is worth a hell of alot more than that. I actually hear that Boeser valuation alot, but IMO, I think most of Boeser negative press comes from Vancouver......no where else. Like I say, IMO a 25 year old winger scoring at near 70 points a season, has more value than a 3rd.

 

Now, when you take the contract into consideration...sure that devalues that, but retain a million, and his contract is right about where it should be...............

 

IMO, Boeser retained is worth at least a late 1st....certainly a early 2nd +

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8 hours ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

Boeser is on target for a 66 point season..........contract aside..........a 25 year old, 66 point RW is worth a hell of alot more than that. I actually hear that Boeser valuation alot, but IMO, I think most of Boeser negative press comes from Vancouver......no where else. Like I say, IMO a 25 year old winger scoring at near 70 points a season, has more value than a 3rd.

 

Now, when you take the contract into consideration...sure that devalues that, but retain a million, and his contract is right about where it should be...............

 

IMO, Boeser retained is worth at least a late 1st....certainly a early 2nd +

60 points and -30. He is on a downward trend. If any one wants to give a 2nd rounder you run with it. Probably get a low 3rd with a 50% retention for someone looking for a reclamation project.

 

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8 hours ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

Boeser is on target for a 66 point season..........contract aside..........a 25 year old, 66 point RW is worth a hell of alot more than that. I actually hear that Boeser valuation alot, but IMO, I think most of Boeser negative press comes from Vancouver......no where else. Like I say, IMO a 25 year old winger scoring at near 70 points a season, has more value than a 3rd.

 

Now, when you take the contract into consideration...sure that devalues that, but retain a million, and his contract is right about where it should be...............

 

IMO, Boeser retained is worth at least a late 1st....certainly a early 2nd +

Imhao we should keep Boeser. I think his trade value isn’t a lot. And I think his value to us as a top six forward is a lot more. 

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5 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Imhao we should keep Boeser. I think his trade value isn’t a lot. And I think his value to us as a top six forward is a lot more. 

I like him too Alf

 

but as I always say...........is Boeser's value greater      than      His return (late 1st) + a 5.5 million dollar UFA player that replaces him?

 

Basically.....................Boeser < late 1st and replacement player

 

Remember he has value of a 66 point player, with nice hair...........it is his contract that is in question.

 

 

Edited by J.I.A.H.N
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49 minutes ago, Mollyworld said:

60 points and -30. He is on a downward trend. If any one wants to give a 2nd rounder you run with it. Probably get a low 3rd with a 50% retention for someone looking for a reclamation project.

 

it is actually 62.361 points per 82 games............which is not bad

 

Brock Boeser........-17.....    .77 points per game $6,650,000

Brayden Schenn...-25.....     76 points per game $6,500,000

Adrian Kempe.......+7.......   .76 points per game $5,500,000

Sam Reinhart.......-13......    .75 points per game $6,500,000

Vlad Tarasheko....-17......     75 points per game $7,500,000   (Traded for a 2023-1st and 2023-4th (50% retained in last year of contract)

Nazem Kadri..........-9.....     .74 points per game $7,000,000

 

So, Is Boeser's contract that far out of wack? and Is a 1st or 2nd that far from believable?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by J.I.A.H.N
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On 2/15/2023 at 6:16 PM, Mollyworld said:

60 points and -30. He is on a downward trend. If any one wants to give a 2nd rounder you run with it. Probably get a low 3rd with a 50% retention for someone looking for a reclamation project.

 

You are quite a bit off on Boeser.  

 

It would take about 2 million of retention to get a 2nd round pick for Boeser.  

 

Oliver Bjorkstrand had 57 points in 80 games last year, and he had FOUR years remaining at 5.4 mil/year.  Columbus still got a 3rd and a 4th round pick for him.  

Bjorkstrand is 27 years old, Brock is 25.  

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Btw OP, I agree wholeheartedly with your overall sentiment:  We need to relax and embrace not being a good team next season as well.  We should all realize that management will keep on acquiring players that are 25-26 and we shouldn't blame them and make them look as "win now" moves.  

 

17 months of pain, I'm okay with it and I'm here for it. 

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