Odd. Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said: Bear was the 7th Dman on Carolina but we are supposed to pay him $2.5 million to play with Hughes on the top pairing? That doesn't make any sense. Bear is a bottom pairing Dman. We don't need to pay him $2.5 million to be a 5/6 guy... I agree with your other takes, but Bear has been one of our most consistent defenseman. He had a bad stretch in January but he’s been playing like his usual self lately. He’s 24 and still developing. We need to be developing defenseman with potential and he has that. He also has considerable value being a right handed defenseman that is young, can skate, and has had another solid season under his belt thus far. I do think he can be developed into a solid top 4 defenseman. development seems to be the issue with this team, I’m hoping Bear is able to take the next step as he’ll have all the opportunity in the world next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToTellTheTruth Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Don't worry abut OEL that is just a distraction right now. Besides buying out OEL talk is being juvenile, if his play is hurting the team then keep him for next year too and another top pick while some youngsters learn the NHL. Why make a good dman look bad on a learning team? Besides the team might need the cap hit if things work out well. Other than that Tocchet may end up driving him off, getting him to revoke his NMC to move and then there are teams that he could flourish on, one's that would not rely on him to do things he just never has done to earn that massive contract. I wondered when Wolanin would be called up. It doesn't do Rathbone much good though. He was good in preseason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, Alflives said: Good point. Can we buyout two players? We could do OEL and Garland. Garland signed as a U26 so isn’t his buyout very team friendly? We could clear 12 mil for next season. Yes, I think the maximum is 2 per year but I am not certain on how that works. There is a buyout window period and then I think it has something to do with how many players are going to arbitration. I don't think we need to buyout Garland. He is playing well under Tocchet and I can see him having a bounce back year next year with 50-60 points... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 8 minutes ago, Odd. said: I agree with your other takes, but Bear has been one of our most consistent defenseman. He had a bad stretch in January but he’s been playing like his usual self lately. He’s 24 and still developing. We need to be developing defenseman with potential and he has that. He also has considerable value being a right handed defenseman that is young, can skate, and has had another solid season under his belt thus far. I do think he can be developed into a solid top 4 defenseman. development seems to be the issue with this team, I’m hoping Bear is able to take the next step as he’ll have all the opportunity in the world next season. Bear is getting to play with Hughes. Hughes is so good he made Schenn look decent. I do like Bear, but wonder if he’s worth the contract he’s expected to get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeyman109 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 with OEL on IR i guess that means we wont be able to trade him the TDL. LOL why cant he be the one with the major injury bug? That would solve a lot of cap issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, mikeyman109 said: with OEL on IR i guess that means we wont be able to trade him the TDL. LOL why cant he be the one with the major injury bug? That would solve a lot of cap issues OEL has a contract that makes him nearly impossible to trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeyman109 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 5 minutes ago, Alflives said: OEL has a contract that makes him nearly impossible to trade. I know ALF i was being very sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bell Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 hours ago, DeNiro said: You need to reward guys like him and Pederson when they’re playing at the level they were. It sucks that Abby loses good players but it ensures they’ll be able to sign good ones in the future. Players wanna go where they’re given opportunities. I agree, kid deserves an NHL pay cheque but Abby is gonna pay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesB Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said: In regards to OEL, buying him out one year later does not save us any money. In fact , it is actually worse. Let's look at this in more detail. If we keep OEL next year, then he is on the books for $7.26 million. He would be taking a spot on the 3rd pairing at that cost. It would severely hinder any improvement we can make to our D with that massive cap hit being paid to a 3rd pairing guy. If we choose to go this route, then next year we are doomed to another tank year with a horrible defence that can't be fixed. Also, if we choose this route and then buy out OEL in the summer of 2024, the cap hit is as follows: 2024-25 $8,000,000 $8,250,000 $0 $2,055,556 $2,055,556 $5,944,444 $2,028,889 $276,667 2025-26 $5,250,000 $8,250,000 $0 $2,055,556 $2,055,556 $3,194,444 $4,448,889 $606,667 2026-27 $5,250,000 $8,250,000 $0 $2,055,556 $2,055,556 $3,194,444 $4,448,889 $606,667 2027-28 $0 $0 $0 $2,055,556 $2,055,556 -$2,055,556 $1,808,889 $246,667 2028-29 $0 $0 $0 $2,055,556 $2,055,556 -$2,055,556 $1,808,889 $246,667 2029-30 $0 $0 $0 $2,055,556 $2,055,556 -$2,055,556 $1,808,889 $246,667 So, in 2024 his cap hit is over $2 million on the buyout, then $4.4 million for 2 years, then another $1.8 million for 3 more years. So, to summarize, if we are keeping OEL next year and buying him out in the summer of 2024 we would need to pay him his full pop of $7.26 million next year PLUS an additional $16,353,334 over the following 6 years, so a total of $23,613,334 over a 7-year period. Conversely, if we simply buy him out this summer of 2023, almost his entire cap hit is wiped out for next year. We can then use that money and that roster spot to get a legit top 4 Dman in his place. We can maybe have somewhat of a reasonable defence next year and our team can take the next step. The cost for buying him out this summer is as follows: 2023-24 $10,500,000 $8,250,000 $0 $2,416,667 $2,416,667 $8,083,333 $146,667 $20,000 2024-25 $8,000,000 $8,250,000 $0 $2,416,667 $2,416,667 $5,583,333 $2,346,667 $320,000 2025-26 $5,250,000 $8,250,000 $0 $2,416,667 $2,416,667 $2,833,333 $4,766,667 $650,000 2026-27 $5,250,000 $8,250,000 $0 $2,416,667 $2,416,667 $2,833,333 $4,766,667 $650,000 2027-28 $0 $0 $0 $2,416,667 $2,416,667 -$2,416,667 $2,126,667 $290,000 2028-29 $0 $0 $0 $2,416,667 $2,416,667 -$2,416,667 $2,126,667 $290,000 2029-30 $0 $0 $0 $2,416,667 $2,416,667 -$2,416,667 $2,126,667 $290,000 2030-31 $0 $0 $0 $2,416,667 $2,416,667 -$2,416,667 $2,126,667 $290,000 The total cost to buy out OEL this summer of 2023 is $20,533,336 over an 8-year period. So, we actually save $3,079,998 if we buyout OEL this summer versus waiting one more year. The only difference is the buyout lasts one year longer. So, by buying out OEL this summer versus in summer of 2024, we save over $3 million, and we are able to start fixing our defence one year sooner. If we need to replace OEL next year with a $5 million Dman, then obviously the cost for the replacement adds an extra $2 million to the overall cost, but that is negligible compared to being able to fix our defence one year sooner. Thanks for doing the work on this, You may have convinced me. You did not include the line from NHL cap friendly that has the total buyout cost. If he is bought out this summer it is a little over 20 million. If he is bought out this summer it is a little over 16 million. So it is 4 million less if the Canucks wait a year. However, as you point out, if the Canucks keep OEL for one more year, they have to pay $7.26 million this year. If his actual value is, say, $2 million, then the resulting overpayment of over 5 million is more than 4 million that is saved in a lower buyout cost. However, there are three additional considerations. 1. OEL has been quite a lot worse this year than he was last year. At age 31 he is not that old for a D-man. There is some chance he could have a bounce-back year next year in a different defensive system, playing in front of a better goalie and maybe having a D partner better suited to his game. And attitude might be important. He seems kind of disinterested this year -- like Loui, he is pretty much resigned to being on a losing team and is happy to take the money and live a nice city. But the combination of playing on a better team and playing for Rick Tochett might change his attitude. I am not particularly optimistic, but this is a possibility. 2, OEL might prefer to retire at some point rather than being in an uncomfortable situation. 3. There is always the chance of some injury that allows him to go on LTIR for a significant period. But, after looking at your calculations, I would not be too unhappy if the Canucks do buy him this summer. That trade might be the worst "desparation-screw the future" trade I have ever seen. Benning was certainly the worst GM I have ever seen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ktcy2 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Is there any way OEL can just like … retire? Lol he sucks. I remember Markus Naslund retired one season before his contract ran out and just ended the contract by mutual termination? It’s possible. OEL please ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just one game, and on a night when the shooting events numbers didn’t really align with the goals outcome (Canucks were underwater, possession-wise, for the whole game, despite the 6-2 score), but Wolanin had some of the best possession stats on the team tonight, and was tops in expected goals-for (1.14), had the lowest expected goals-against (0.44), and a team-best expected goals-for percentage (72.10%). Individually, I think he had a shot and a block, and otherwise pretty much zeroes across the board, but you really can’t complain about a clean and quiet individual game where his presence on-ice is helping the team tilt the ice significantly (especially while getting buried on shooting events while he’s off the ice). His xGF% Rel was an eye popping +53.23%. And his scoring chances-for percentage and high danger chances-for percentage were both well over 70%. Really solid game, by the fancies. Hope he gets more opportunities to showcase his abilities. Wolanin has been having a breakout year at the AHL level. Would be great if he can translate some of that success to the NHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R3aL Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 hours ago, JamesB said: Thanks for doing the work on this, You may have convinced me. You did not include the line from NHL cap friendly that has the total buyout cost. If he is bought out this summer it is a little over 20 million. If he is bought out this summer it is a little over 16 million. So it is 4 million less if the Canucks wait a year. However, as you point out, if the Canucks keep OEL for one more year, they have to pay $7.26 million this year. If his actual value is, say, $2 million, then the resulting overpayment of over 5 million is more than 4 million that is saved in a lower buyout cost. However, there are three additional considerations. 1. OEL has been quite a lot worse this year than he was last year. At age 31 he is not that old for a D-man. There is some chance he could have a bounce-back year next year in a different defensive system, playing in front of a better goalie and maybe having a D partner better suited to his game. And attitude might be important. He seems kind of disinterested this year -- like Loui, he is pretty much resigned to being on a losing team and is happy to take the money and live a nice city. But the combination of playing on a better team and playing for Rick Tochett might change his attitude. I am not particularly optimistic, but this is a possibility. 2, OEL might prefer to retire at some point rather than being in an uncomfortable situation. 3. There is always the chance of some injury that allows him to go on LTIR for a significant period. But, after looking at your calculations, I would not be too unhappy if the Canucks do buy him this summer. That trade might be the worst "desparation-screw the future" trade I have ever seen. Benning was certainly the worst GM I have ever seen. Also Arrogant as he seemed to think he didn’t ever need to acquire additional draft picks and that his talent evaluation process would make up for having less draft picks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R3aL Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 hours ago, ktcy2 said: Is there any way OEL can just like … retire? Lol he sucks. I remember Markus Naslund retired one season before his contract ran out and just ended the contract by mutual termination? It’s possible. OEL please ? Little things all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownUndaCanuck Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Dermott's just played 11 games this season. Shut him down, try again next year, resign cheap. Wolanin should have made the team from training camp, no idea why he didn't he was solid against Philly and is the AHL's best defenceman and probably like 3rd or 4th best player in the league. Unreal how we treated him while our dreadful defence struggled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesB Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 11 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said: Dermott's just played 11 games this season. Shut him down, try again next year, resign cheap. Wolanin should have made the team from training camp, no idea why he didn't he was solid against Philly and is the AHL's best defenceman and probably like 3rd or 4th best player in the league. Unreal how we treated him while our dreadful defence struggled. I have had the same thoughts all year. Wolanin is the top scoring D in the AHL and he has also been good defensively. As you say, he has been one of the best 3 or 4 players in the AHL this year. He has been excellent all year and it looked like he should have been on the big team to start the season. So why has he been in Abby all year? 1. At age 27 he is signed to one-year two-deal deal for one year and then becomes a UFA. So the Canucks are not really trying to "develop" him. 2. On the left side at the start of camp the Canucks had Hughes, OEL, Dermott and Rathbone was expected finally make the jump to the NHL this year. Wolanin was expected be a good AHL D-man who would help Abby ice a competitive team and be available as depth option for the big team in case of injuries. 3 Then, before the season started, the Canucks traded for Stillman, pushing Wolanin further down the depth chart. Having just thrown away a second round pick to save a small amount of cap space and acquire Stillman, the Canucks pretty much had to put him ahead of Wolanin on the depth chart. 4. And, with Hughes and OEL as "offensive defencemen" on the left side, the Canucks probably wanted a defence-first guy on left side (like Stillman or even Brisebois). He has had quite a few chances to play at the NHL level but has never been able to "stick" even though he has been consistently very good at the AHL level, It will be interesting to see what happens this time. His one game so far is a small sample, especially as he was usually on the ice the same time as the Pettersson line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aqua59 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 On 2/18/2023 at 3:06 PM, Odd. said: I agree with your other takes, but Bear has been one of our most consistent defenseman. He had a bad stretch in January but he’s been playing like his usual self lately. He’s 24 and still developing. We need to be developing defenseman with potential and he has that. He also has considerable value being a right handed defenseman that is young, can skate, and has had another solid season under his belt thus far. I do think he can be developed into a solid top 4 defenseman. development seems to be the issue with this team, I’m hoping Bear is able to take the next step as he’ll have all the opportunity in the world next season. Great points. When is Bear's contract up, end of this season? That could be a factor also but I'm not sure of the answer. You know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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