DeNiro Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Elias Pettersson said: So I finally played around with the NHL lottery draft simulator. It basically told me what I already knew. It’s a crapshoot and whether you finish 2nd or 6th from the bottom the odds of getting the 1st or 2nd pick aren’t much different. The only way to seriously increase your odds is to finish dead last. Here is the deal. I tried the lottery 20 times for 4 separate teams. The Canucks who are 6th, Chicago who are 3rd, Columbus who are 2nd and Anaheim who are 1st. These are the results from 20 tries. Vancouver - 1st place once, 2nd place twice Chicago - 1st place twice, 2nd place twice Columbus - 1st place once, 2nd place once Anaheim - 1st place 4 times, 2nd place 5 times So as you can see, there wasn’t much of a difference between Vancouver, Chicago and Columbus. As a matter of fact, Vancouver landed in the 1st or 2nd spot one extra time than Columbus. However, there was a huge difference between Vancouver/Chicago/Columbus and Anaheim. Bottom line. Unless we finish dead last the chances of getting Bedard or even Fantilli aren’t much different whether you are 2nd last or 6th. Yea but if we don’t win would you rather pick 6th or 7th or would you rather pick 3rd or 4th? Thats why we tank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devron Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 hours ago, KirkSave said: Surely JT ripped him a new one in the dressing room Somewhere JT is yelling at someone right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, DeNiro said: Yea but if we don’t win would you rather pick 6th or 7th or would you rather pick 3rd or 4th? Thats why we tank! The reason I used Chicago is I wanted to see how often they got jumped. I didn’t keep track of that the first time but I ran the simulator again. Out of 20 tries, they got jumped 12 times. 5 times they were pushed to 5th spot. Remember the Juolevi draft and the Petey draft? We finished 2nd last both times. We ended up with the 5th pick both times. We got lucky with the Petey pick which basically saved this franchise. However, the Juolevi pick was a complete disaster. The 2nd pick that year would have been Laine or PLD. Edited February 23, 2023 by Elias Pettersson 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Muttley said: I just played with it. Did 8 tries. It came up Vancouver 6th, 5 times. 7th once. 1st twice. I just ran it again 20 times. I got the exact same result as the first time. 1st pick once and 2nd pick twice for Vancouver. Like I said, total crapshoot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pure961089 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: The reason I used Chicago is I wanted to see how often they got jumped. I didn’t keep track of that the first time but I ran the simulator again. Out of 20 tries, they got jumped 12 times. 5 times they were pushed to 5th spot. Remember the Juolevi draft and the Petey draft? We finished 2nd last both times. We ended up with the 5th pick both times. We got lucky with the Petey pick which basically saved this franchise. However, the Juolevi pick was a complete disaster. The 2nd pick that year would have been Laine or PLD. It’s true, we’ve never been lucky abut at some point you have to wonder what’s going on. And also it has to be said the pick was such a reach, it was a poor draft pick. Other teams got great picks after the Canucks pick. Sergachyov and McAvoy were available and ended up being great picks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeNiro Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: The reason I used Chicago is I wanted to see how often they got jumped. I didn’t keep track of that the first time but I ran the simulator again. Out of 20 tries, they got jumped 12 times. 5 times they were pushed to 5th spot. Remember the Juolevi draft and the Petey draft? We finished 2nd last both times. We ended up with the 5th pick both times. We got lucky with the Petey pick which basically saved this franchise. However, the Juolevi pick was a complete disaster. The 2nd pick that year would have been Laine or PLD. Yea but I’d rather get to the third pick if we can. The most likely outcome is dropping back one to 4th That’s a lot less painful as we’d still have our choice of Michkov, Benson, or Smith. Maybe someone even passes on Carlsson? Crazier things have happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Vintage Canuck- Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pure961089 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said: I just ran it again 20 times. I got the exact same result as the first time. 1st pick once and 2nd pick twice for Vancouver. Like I said, total crapshoot. It’s Fishy. Let’s just say it. I find it crazy that the lottery wins come in clusters. Like New York Rangers, their picks haven’t panned out yet but Kakko and Lefrenier both lottery wins and they were back to back years. Same as New Jersey, how many times have they won the lottery in consecutive years? Buffalo? With Owen Powers and Dahlin were back to back or very close in succession. Pittsburg with Malkin and Crosby. Edmonton with there string of consecutive lottery wins. You start doing the math trying to figure the odds that a team like the Canucks could be absolutely historically unlucky. For over 50 years, Wouldn’t be surprised if a team from the east again wins the lottery. Edited February 23, 2023 by Pure961089 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elias Pettersson Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I just checked OEL's contract. He is due to get paid $10.5 million next year. I'll run naked down Robson Street this summer if Aquilini actually agrees to pay him that and doesn't buy him out beforehand... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crabcakes Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 42 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said: I just checked OEL's contract. He is due to get paid $10.5 million next year. I'll run naked down Robson Street this summer if Aquilini actually agrees to pay him that and doesn't buy him out beforehand... Which means your renewal will surely be for more. Is that how shy Swedes celebrate? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dougieL Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/22/2023 at 7:50 PM, JamesB said: 1. For those of us who want as high a draft pick as possible, we were lucky the Canucks did not win tonight as they outshot, outchanced, and outplayed Nashville. 2. Myers has been bad all season but hit a new low tonight. He was on the ice for all 4 Nashville goals and contributed significantly to at least 3 or them (and it is not like he was doing anything good on the other one.) 3. The Canuck D is better with Wolanin instead of OEL. The thing is, Wolanin looked better than OEL in pre-season and not much has changed.Things have reached the point where the $13 million pairing (OEL and Myers) are probably worse than putting two replacement level players on the ice instead (like Wolanin and Burroughs). That is consistent with Evolving Hockey which now has Myers as worse than a replacement level player and OEL as approximately the same as a replacement level player. An "efficient" team would be paying a total of maybe $2 million for a pairing like that, not $13 million and they would be the "4th pairing". 4. Thanks Benning for signing Myers and trading for OEL - giving up a 1st and 2nd round pick in the process. 5. The Canucks will try hard to trade Myers in the summer and might succeed after paying his bonus so the acquiring team would not have to pay much real money. As for OEL, I am beginning to think a buyout is likely. 6. Pettersson and Kuzmenko are just too good.I think they should be rested for a few games to help the tank. Hey, those guys could use a few days off. But but but...OEL can't be overpaid because UFA-aged, high-end second pair dmen are worth in the $7m range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaimito Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KirkSave Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 19 hours ago, Devron said: Somewhere JT is yelling at someone right now And I love him still. He has reigned it in since Tocchet has been behind the bench. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hairy Kneel Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 (edited) On 2/22/2023 at 9:12 PM, Elias Pettersson said: So I finally played around with the NHL lottery draft simulator. It basically told me what I already knew. It’s a crapshoot and whether you finish 2nd or 6th from the bottom the odds of getting the 1st or 2nd pick aren’t much different. The only way to seriously increase your odds is to finish dead last. Here is the deal. I tried the lottery 20 times for 4 separate teams. The Canucks who are 6th, Chicago who are 3rd, Columbus who are 2nd and Anaheim who are 1st. These are the results from 20 tries. Vancouver - 1st place once, 2nd place twice Chicago - 1st place twice, 2nd place twice Columbus - 1st place once, 2nd place once Anaheim - 1st place 4 times, 2nd place 5 times So as you can see, there wasn’t much of a difference between Vancouver, Chicago and Columbus. As a matter of fact, Vancouver landed in the 1st or 2nd spot one extra time than Columbus. However, there was a huge difference between Vancouver/Chicago/Columbus and Anaheim. Bottom line. Unless we finish dead last the chances of getting Bedard or even Fantilli aren’t much different whether you are 2nd last or 6th. Wow, we were that high? Hates to look back on that. We're were RIGHT there before Tocchet started with all the 30 min games and 3 line stuff. And Demko coming back from injury. Edited June 27, 2023 by Hairy Kneel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurn Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Hairy Kneel said: Wow, we were that high? 6 points out of a last place tie on Feb18th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post PhillipBlunt Posted June 27, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted June 27, 2023 On 2/22/2023 at 9:57 PM, Elias Pettersson said: I just checked OEL's contract. He is due to get paid $10.5 million next year. I'll run naked down Robson Street this summer if Aquilini actually agrees to pay him that and doesn't buy him out beforehand... Good thing he was bought out or you'd have had a flappy run to make. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hairy Kneel Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 3 hours ago, PhillipBlunt said: Good thing he was bought out or you'd have had a flappy run to make. We're softies for bad contracts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnkNuk Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 7 hours ago, Hairy Kneel said: Wow, we were that high? Hates to look back on that. We're were RIGHT there before Tocchet started with all the 30 min games and 3 line stuff. And Demko coming back from injury. But the memories! Who needs Bedard when we can look back and remember things like that 2-1 win over Anaheim on Mar 19th? Or that 3-0 win against Chicago on April 8th? You can't replace things like that. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Vintage Canuck- Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 Weird thread bump, going to close this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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