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Hits and Misses - Evaluating Rutherford and Allvin

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Elias Pettersson

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23 minutes ago, ilduce39 said:

Top 7 by points:
 

Petey - 24

Kuz - 27

Beau - 25

Miller - 30

Mikheyev - 28

Brock - 26

Garland - 27

 

Demko - 27

 

What’s our average age?  26? Not exactly far off.
 

We aren’t a baby top 6 but there’s plenty of tread on all the tires and our most important piece is also our youngest.   
 

That’s also not counting guys like Pods and Hogs who could very well be slotted in if some of those guys are traded.

Of those names you mentioned, they can't all play on this team next year.  We simply don't have the cap space to afford it.  Some of them will likely have to be traded at a discounted price.

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1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Hronek is a win now and a win in the future piece. Mikeyev is a win now and a win in the future piece. Management is building their core group, while also building their supporting cast. Kuzmenko is win now and win in the future. 
which player did we add who is only a win now guy? 

Sorry, I meant to imply these are win now AND in the future players - e.g not short term rental type deals.  Which is fine - IF they are good enough and build a balanced team with chemistry in the long run - which they might... or it might be the last 5 years all over again

 

39 minutes ago, GB5 said:

Wow, pretty tough on the kid aren't you?

 

His draft +1 season hasn't blown anyone's socks off but no one is expecting him to make the Canucks right away either. I wouldn't use the "b" word on any draft pick until at least 4-5 years after they are drafted.


Yeah, it's a tough take, if he'd just had a slow season that is one thing, but statistically, it's very difficult for a player to come back from missing almost an entire season of development at his age.  Again there's a chance he fulfills some potential still but IMO it's an outside one. Look at our own prospects that have had similar disruptions to their D1 or D2 years - almost all busts. 

Now for some picks, that's just bad luck, and in JL case it is, but picking a player of such slight stature increases his chance of injury and also increases his need for gym and physical development time, which Mono will have badly hindered and the injuries further compound. Management swung for the fence on a high-risk, high-reward pick, but it isn't trending well at this point - thus the error in drafting strategy has to be a strike against management IMO.  
 

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54 minutes ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

Of those names you mentioned, they can't all play on this team next year.  We simply don't have the cap space to afford it.  Some of them will likely have to be traded at a discounted price.

I agree with that - a winger or two for sure needs to go.  But that will likely lower the age as Pods, Hogs or even a long shot like Kravstov likely steps up. 
 

I hope the rumour that management is looking to trade Miller and replace him with a younger 2C is true - they won’t “replace” what Miller brings but that will also go a long way to lowering the top 6 average age.  
 

That’s also what I meant in my previous post as having to walk a tight rope - management doesn’t have an easy task here to somehow improve but also get younger. Need to hit a homerun via trade, draft or signing.

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This management team has done well on a few minor pieces, but ultimately it's too early to judge their big moves. Right now their big moves are prioritizing Miller and trading for Hronek. Acquiring Hronek was clearly done with the intention of trying to compete before Miller begins to decline.

 

If Hronek is truly able to push up the competitive window and the team is ready to compete in 2 years, I think it's a win. However, if the team is still middling in two years it's a loss and they would have been much better off holding the NYI 1st and our 2nd and trading Miller for the rumored two 1sts from Pittsburgh with the intention of a 4 year retool around Pettersson and Hughes. Three early to mid 1sts in what is supposed to be an incredibly deep draft could have been monumental to changing the fortunes of this team.

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16 hours ago, Muttley said:

One can only assume, management had to make the choice to go with either Horvat or Miller early on. They would have been relatively certain which way they wanted

to go. Judging from some on Horvat's pressers this year, he knew he'd be moving on. I think deep down, he wanted to. I don't mind the way it ended up.

 

Under new management, we have seen positive moves that obviously have been well thought out. Not the obsessive "Gotta get my guy" ones form the previous regime.

Ones that will be costing us for years yet.

 

 

Hmm what gave you that impression? I'm genuinely curious.

 

I never really got the feeling that he wanted to move on from this team specifically, but he did want to get paid whether it was by this team or not.

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Predictably, the team is going on a late season run after being near mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

It's a familiar story and one that will probably even melt the icy heart of a die hard tankist like myself, to be hopeful that this isn't another repeat chapter of the last decade. 

 

The question is: do we believe it? No one actually knows how next season is going to go. The team looks pretty good right now, let's be fair. They looked pretty good down the stretch last year too. 

 

I'm not sure I believe it, and while I like the addition of Hronek as a player with this group, this group hasn't accomplished anything. And I debate the merits of re-tooling a group that hasn't accomplished anything.

 

So to me, it's still too early to give a letter grade. If forced to give a grade, they get a C/C- from me. An F for not recognizing where the team is at and leaning into being bad here, but a B+ for their pro scouting and the players they have brought in leap frogging guys like Garland and Boeser on the depth chart, which salvaged their grade somewhat in my eyes, and gives me some hope that next season might actually be different from this season. And last season. And the season before that. And so on. 

 

 

TLDR:

-Pro scouting good.

-Trading draft picks bad.

-Team still have many questions marks

-Why use many word when few do trick

-Team haven't accomplished anything

-Some hope starting to kindle in my icy black black, foolish heart.

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13 minutes ago, PetterssonOrPeterson said:

Hmm what gave you that impression? I'm genuinely curious.

 

I never really got the feeling that he wanted to move on from this team specifically, but he did want to get paid whether it was by this team or not.

Horvat is a good player and was driven this year ( his contract year ) but where was that in past seasons. I liked him and might be a great example to youngsters. But Miller is a driver not an onlooker

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1 hour ago, Fred65 said:

Horvat is a good player and was driven this year ( his contract year ) but where was that in past seasons. I liked him and might be a great example to youngsters. But Miller is a driver not an onlooker

Unless he's in his own zone.

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We’ll properly rate this team in September as we need to see how the roster is constructed after the draft and off season going into training camp. Very interested to see if the moves are going to point us in the right direction. Yes it’s a gamble to trade future picks on win now moves. Yes we still need those picks for the future Petey’s, Quinn’s and Demko’s. But if they aren’t going to be here for a rebuild and if management isn’t going to be around if they don’t make the playoffs next season, it’s all in with the pieces we have now. 
 

 

I really hope it works this time with the retool. But if we find out in 3 years when Demko needs a new deal and is a UFA that we aren’t good enough to win it all with the group we have, then and only then will we try something else? I’m all for trying to keep Petey and Hughes with this team, but if they aren’t enough talent to lead us to the playoffs let alone a cup victory, we will grade this management group with an I for incomplete. 
 

I will give this group good grades if they start drafting some RSD because it’s long overdue and you should always have eyes to the future and have some pieces that can help with the ones we have right now. Instead of giving up high picks we could be the beneficiaries of drafting and developing our own RD. Would go a long way to get the additional pieces we need to get to where we need to go.

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On 3/14/2023 at 12:49 PM, awalk said:

Predictably, the team is going on a late season run after being near mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

It's a familiar story and one that will probably even melt the icy heart of a die hard tankist like myself, to be hopeful that this isn't another repeat chapter of the last decade. 

 

The question is: do we believe it? No one actually knows how next season is going to go. The team looks pretty good right now, let's be fair. They looked pretty good down the stretch last year too. 

 

I'm not sure I believe it, and while I like the addition of Hronek as a player with this group, this group hasn't accomplished anything. And I debate the merits of re-tooling a group that hasn't accomplished anything.

 

So to me, it's still too early to give a letter grade. If forced to give a grade, they get a C/C- from me. An F for not recognizing where the team is at and leaning into being bad here, but a B+ for their pro scouting and the players they have brought in leap frogging guys like Garland and Boeser on the depth chart, which salvaged their grade somewhat in my eyes, and gives me some hope that next season might actually be different from this season. And last season. And the season before that. And so on. 

 

 

TLDR:

-Pro scouting good.

-Trading draft picks bad.

-Team still have many questions marks

-Why use many word when few do trick

-Team haven't accomplished anything

-Some hope starting to kindle in my icy black black, foolish heart.

I think you'd have to have blinders on to believe it.

 

Since the coaching change, we've had the easiest schedule in the league, and it continues into the final game of the season. 

 

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/remaining_schedule_strength

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To me we all knew changes were coming.

 

So far looks like our skill level went from a 5 out of ten to a 7.5 at this time.

 

We still need help on D mainly but getting Hronek was a step way forward.

 

Raty might take time but hope not long.  

 

Me would give them at this point a solid B.

 

By the start of next season might be an A if thing fall into place as seems we are going to do much more and sooner then later as they learned from last iff season.

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On 3/14/2023 at 10:56 AM, Eddie said:

Now for some picks, that's just bad luck, and in JL case it is, but picking a player of such slight stature increases his chance of injury and also increases his need for gym and physical development time, which Mono will have badly hindered and the injuries further compound. Management swung for the fence on a high-risk, high-reward pick, but it isn't trending well at this point - thus the error in drafting strategy has to be a strike against management IMO.  
 

Were Pettersson and Hughes errors in drafting strategy? An undersized d-man and a lightweight bean pole forward. If you don't view them as drafting "mistakes" you're simply playing the hindsight game. Hindsight is 20/20 but no GM has a crystal ball to predict things like mono or serious injuries. Things that could happen to any draft pick.

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HITS

Hiring Granato and Castonguay, promoting Johnson, and the Sedins

Hiring Tocchet, Foote and Gonchar

Acquiring: Mikheyev, Aman, Kuzmenko, Joshua, Bear, Beauvillier, Raty, Kravtsov, Bloom, Hronek, a 3rd and three 4th Round picks, and drafted Lekkerimaki and (d) Pettersson

Good riddence Halak, Hamonic, Dickinson, DiPietro, Stillman, Lazar

Choosing Miller over Horvat

Signing McDonough and Johansson

 

MISSES

Hiring Doerrie

Not firing Boudreau sooner, which cost them the playoffs IMO

Acquiring Dermott

Sorry to see you go Schenn, Myrenberg, a 1st and two 2nd Round picks

 

Not this management's fault VAN has OEL, Ferland and Poolman (Benning)

 

Grade: B 

 

Edited by NUCKER67
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