[Discussion] How badly has goaltending affected the Canucks this season?

[BigTramFan]

I preface this post by saying that our team defense hasn't been good enough and has left our goalies out to dry many times over. And so our SV% is not entirely on our goalies.

 

I have been wondering where this team would be in the standings if we had average goaltending this season?

 

The Canucks SV% for this season is sitting at 0.878. This is the 32nd SV% in the league (i.e. worst!).

 

We have faced 2049 shots on goal and our SV% of 0.878 has meant we have let in 250 goals thus far.

 

If the Canucks had somehow managed to hit league average goaltending this season, i.e. the 16th place SV% of 0.903. What would our goals against be?

 

2049 shots x (1 - 0.903) = 199 goals against

 

So with average goaltending our GF = 220 and GA = 198.

 

Where would that roughly put us in the standings?

 

Well the closest team to this GF/GA record is the Jets with GF = 211 and GA = 193

 

The Jets are currently in the second Wild Card position and have a reasonable chance at the playoffs. If we had scored 9 more goals than them and let 5 more goals in than them, I think this means we would be in a similar position or better than the Jets right now.

 

I'm not pinning all our troubles on our goaltending but I do find this quite interesting to think that AVERAGE goaltending (not even super double bubble Demko tending) would have put us in the running for a playoff spot at this point of the season...

Edited March 17, 2023 by BigTramFan

[Pears]

With average goaltending (and a healthy Demko), I’d almost wager we’d be fighting for a playoff spot right now. 

[BigTramFan]

13 minutes ago, Pears said:

With average goaltending (and a healthy Demko), I’d almost wager we’d be fighting for a playoff spot right now. 

Yes that's exactly what I mean. Thanks for putting it so succinctly!

[IBatch]

This is something worthy of discussion for sure.   We lost quite a few games just using eyeballs, with a weak goal here and there.   It's a slim margin really, as far as save percentages go,  but for sure over time, it makes a difference.   We lose a lot of 5/4 games.    And blew some leads lol.   So many actually.  

 

JB would have made a goalie trade early on.     Management did not.   They went with Martin and Delia with Demko out.   It was a great lesson for the players themselves, albeit a tough one, as well as eventually a deliberate tank move.   It allowed management to bring in the coaching staff they wanted as well.   Bruce definitely earned the right to his option.   And management definitely didn't bail him out either.    

 

I'm sure they were hoping once Tochetts system of no cheating allowed came in, and trust, trust of everyone around you, it would make it easier on their goalies to be above average to superb. 

 

Love that save percentages are down to .903 .... that's awfully close to early 90's lol.    Been saying for years, those goalies were exceptional, small, heavy leather pads, cat like reflexes and they could punt a rebound like a first pass with possession often.   Stand up goalies... I don't think that the goalies are worse ... just that the level of play is finally getting back to how it use to be with a smaller league.    1981 was actually the high water mark too.   And without Gretzky, Bossy, Coffey and Mario, the 80's wouldn't have been so high scoring either.    Snipers and all-time greats.    So much talent. 

 

Taking away the redline was the ref who just played his 1500th game, biggest change in the game.   It sped it up.    That and when they finally called what used to be normal hockey plays, obstruction after the lockout.  

 

League was so watered down and the next group of players was very vanilla compared to their peers from before.   Goons were excommunicated, and enforcers eventually too.    Now it's all about speed and skill.    And the goalies are the ones paying the price.    The goalies weren't way better in the dead puck era.   Roy was incredible in the 80's and early 90's too.    Leading the league with .903-5 SP lol.    Later posted .922 in the dead puck era.   Close to retirement.   He didn't get "better".    93 was the most unbelievable playoff performance a goalie ever had.    Probably stand for a long time.  10 OT wins.   Team knew if they got to OT,  nothing was getting by Roy.    

 

Is Vasilevsky getting worse?  Of course not.   Same with other reliable usual suspects.     All this young talent ... being driven from the D to a degree as well.  

 

Im sure 3 on 3 OT also has made an impact.  

 

As for us, is anyone surprised that with Demko back, a stronger emphasis on "little things" and no cheating allowed, that we aren't losing like we were the first 2/3 of the season?   I'm not at all.  
 

Agree it's not all on the goaltender.    Sure nice to see instead of .910 being "average" like it used to be in the 2000's for awhile, it's down to .903.     And don't see that changing anytime soon. 

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

Spoiler

26 minutes ago, IBatch said:

This is something worthy of discussion for sure.   We lost quite a few games just using eyeballs, with a weak goal here and there.   It's a slim margin really, as far as save percentages go,  but for sure over time, it makes a difference.   We lose a lot of 5/4 games.    And blew some leads lol.   So many actually.  

 

JB would have made a goalie trade early on.     Management did not.   They went with Martin and Delia with Demko out.   It was a great lesson for the players themselves, albeit a tough one, as well as eventually a deliberate tank move.   It allowed management to bring in the coaching staff they wanted as well.   Bruce definitely earned the right to his option.   And management definitely didn't bail him out either.    

 

I'm sure they were hoping once Tochetts system of no cheating allowed came in, and trust, trust of everyone around you, it would make it easier on their goalies to be above average to superb. 

 

Love that save percentages are down to .903 .... that's awfully close to early 90's lol.    Been saying for years, those goalies were exceptional, small, heavy leather pads, cat like reflexes and they could punt a rebound like a first pass with possession often.   Stand up goalies... I don't think that the goalies are worse ... just that the level of play is finally getting back to how it use to be with a smaller league.    1981 was actually the high water mark too.   And without Gretzky, Bossy, Coffey and Mario, the 80's wouldn't have been so high scoring either.    Snipers and all-time greats.    So much talent. 

 

Taking away the redline was the ref who just played his 1500th game, biggest change in the game.   It sped it up.    That and when they finally called what used to be normal hockey plays, obstruction after the lockout.  

 

League was so watered down and the next group of players was very vanilla compared to their peers from before.   Goons were excommunicated, and enforcers eventually too.    Now it's all about speed and skill.    And the goalies are the ones paying the price.    The goalies weren't way better in the dead puck era.   Roy was incredible in the 80's and early 90's too.    Leading the league with .903-5 SP lol.    Later posted .922 in the dead puck era.   Close to retirement.   He didn't get "better".    93 was the most unbelievable playoff performance a goalie ever had.    Probably stand for a long time.  10 OT wins.   Team knew if they got to OT,  nothing was getting by Roy.    

 

Is Vasilevsky getting worse?  Of course not.   Same with other reliable usual suspects.     All this young talent ... being driven from the D to a degree as well.  

 

Im sure 3 on 3 OT also has made an impact.  

 

As for us, is anyone surprised that with Demko back, a stronger emphasis on "little things" and no cheating allowed, that we aren't losing like we were the first 2/3 of the season?   I'm not at all.  
 

Agree it's not all on the goaltender.    Sure nice to see instead of .910 being "average" like it used to be in the 2000's for awhile, it's down to .903.     And don't see that changing anytime soon. 

 

I think some people are forgetting that Spencer Martin was outplaying Thatcher Demko at the start of the season.  A start which had us go winless in our first seven games.  It was a nightmare to watch us lose day in, day out - sometimes in dramatic fashion, too.  When Demko went down, it was sensible to keep Martin in net.  He was a feel-good story after playing lights out last year and outshining Halak.  I think it was fair to believe he could keep that up for a while, and unfortunate that he couldn't.  Even now I don't think those horrible stats from this season reflect his level of play.

 

The tank job started to begin when other players started to go down.  And the REAL tank job was when management held onto Boudreau for no apparent reason.

[IBatch]

20 minutes ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

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I think some people are forgetting that Spencer Martin was outplaying Thatcher Demko at the start of the season.  A start which had us go winless in our first seven games.  It was a nightmare to watch us lose day in, day out - sometimes in dramatic fashion, too.  When Demko went down, it was sensible to keep Martin in net.  He was a feel-good story after playing lights out last year and outshining Halak.  I think it was fair to believe he could keep that up for a while, and unfortunate that he couldn't.  Even now I don't think those horrible stats from this season reflect his level of play.

 

The tank job started to begin when other players started to go down.  And the REAL tank job was when management held onto Boudreau for no apparent reason.

Martin played great for us last season and earned the back-up role.   Being the starter and running with it is two entirely separate things.   Yes you get a few Binningtons now and again, but expecting it is kind of silly.   It's rare.   Like Martin and was rooting for him.    But it became pretty obvious pretty quick he wasn't going to win many games on his own.    Do we even have ONE shutout this year?   Halak.   That was actually a great signing given his career.    He's proven he can win games on his own many times.     With us?  Not so much but there were 2-1 games in there.   Maybe i'm missing something ..: but have any of these guys had a shut-out yet?    Was critical with Markstrom early on about this too.    Your team should get a shutout at some point.   Markstrom almost broke the record lol.  Not i a good way.  

 

Bruce did not get one game from his goalies where they stole one.   Most back-ups do this a couple times by January - at least once.   And your starter a few.    

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

37 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Martin played great for us last season and earned the back-up role.   Being the starter and running with it is two entirely separate things.   Yes you get a few Binningtons now and again, but expecting it is kind of silly.   It's rare.   Like Martin and was rooting for him.    But it became pretty obvious pretty quick he wasn't going to win many games on his own.    Do we even have ONE shutout this year?   Halak.   That was actually a great signing given his career.    He's proven he can win games on his own many times.     With us?  Not so much but there were 2-1 games in there.   Maybe i'm missing something ..: but have any of these guys had a shut-out yet?    Was critical with Markstrom early on about this too.    Your team should get a shutout at some point.   Markstrom almost broke the record lol.  Not i a good way.  

 

Bruce did not get one game from his goalies where they stole one.   Most back-ups do this a couple times by January - at least once.   And your starter a few.    

Actually Bennington rode that streak long enough for one big playoff push.  He's been an overpaid hothead ever since.  I dont think it was unreasonable to expect. 900 hockey from Martin but he did much worse.

 

With Boudreau and even under Tocchet, this team has taken such an offensive approach to the game.  It's a high risk, high reward system that favors a strong forward core, although it leaves our defense very ugly.  This, along with a leaguewide increase in scoring, makes it harder for our goaltenders to look good.  Our team is a team where Petey tallies 4 points and "steals" a game for us.

[IBatch]

33 minutes ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

Actually Bennington rode that streak long enough for one big playoff push.  He's been an overpaid hothead ever since.  I dont think it was unreasonable to expect. 900 hockey from Martin but he did much worse.

 

With Boudreau and even under Tocchet, this team has taken such an offensive approach to the game.  It's a high risk, high reward system that favors a strong forward core, although it leaves our defense very ugly.  This, along with a leaguewide increase in scoring, makes it harder for our goaltenders to look good.  Our team is a team where Petey tallies 4 points and "steals" a game for us.

Tochett is icing an AHL defense.  Mostly.   And had Brock back checking and playing the walls.    Miller also is finally playing a simpler game.    Hope it sticks.   As far as our offense goes, we have a lot of weapons mediocre ones, upfront but a lot of them.     I don't think Martin and Delia were terrible, but they certainly weren't average either.    I'm not sure Demko has "stolen" a game for us yet.   Has he? (this season). 

 

 

Edit:  A few years ago I watched a guy named Hammond come in and OTT didn't lose outright in 23 or so games.    Goalies come and go.   There is a huge difference between a starter and a back-up and they are constantly moving around.    I was around and busy going to games when I could during the goalie graveyard era.   Was ugly.   Irbe, Potvin, Burke and Essansa were all starter stars or almost stars at one point or another.   I'm not totally sold on Demko either.   We were absolutely spoiled with Luongo. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by IBatch

[Drakrami]

Now imagine if Mikheyev wasn't injured, he would have scored 25 goals for us. Hoglander scores 20 goals and Podkolzin scores 20 goals, both weren't sent down. Horvat wasn't traded, an extra 20 goals from him until the end of the season. 

 

Now with our season +70 goals more, we would easily flip 15 losses into wins. That would make our record that would make us #5 in the conference right now, right at the top of the pack. 

 

Am I doing this right? lol, reality doesn't work that way. 

[DrJockitch]

So many logical fallacies in this statement. 
Of all our players played better, we would probably be better.  Yes this is true. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by DrJockitch

[Heretic]

Imagine if pigs had wings?  What a mess we'd be in!


Yes, it's not all the goalies' fault - and super duper double bubble Demko was awful up until he went on LTIR.   

[Tyndall2]

Agree that overall goalkeeping could be better but......     Our defense stinks.  How many grade AA chances were gift wrapped by our defensemen over the season.  Not just Myers and OEL but generally.  Our play with Tochet and crew has improved lately.  However, if we reduce the number of gift wrapped chances (like in last night's game) then perhaps the final outcomes of games would be better.  

Also, our penalty killing was absolutely terrible for most of the season increasing the grade AA scoring chances for the opposition.  And lately, our powerplay has disappeared becoming too predictable again.

[Ted Lasso]

7 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

I preface this post by saying that our team defense hasn't been good enough and has left our goalies out to dry many times over. And so our SV% is not entirely on our goalies.

 

I have been wondering where this team would be in the standings if we had average goaltending this season?

 

The Canucks SV% for this season is sitting at 0.878. This is the 32nd SV% in the league (i.e. worst!).

 

We have faced 2049 shots on goal and our SV% of 0.878 has meant we have let in 250 goals thus far.

 

If the Canucks had somehow managed to hit league average goaltending this season, i.e. the 16th place SV% of 0.903. What would our goals against be?

 

2049 shots x (1 - 0.903) = 199 goals against

 

So with average goaltending our GF = 220 and GA = 198.

 

Where would that roughly put us in the standings?

 

Well the closest team to this GF/GA record is the Jets with GF = 211 and GA = 193

 

The Jets are currently in the second Wild Card position and have a reasonable chance at the playoffs. If we had scored 9 more goals than them and let 5 more goals in than them, I think this means we would be in a similar position or better than the Jets right now.

 

I'm not pinning all our troubles on our goaltending but I do find this quite interesting to think that AVERAGE goaltending (not even super double bubble Demko tending) would have put us in the running for a playoff spot at this point of the season...

Solid analysis, thank you. This is very helpful for gauging this team’s potential.

 

Basically, we have a bubble playoff team, whose strong goaltending has compensated for poor team defence / lack of quality defenders.

 

We have started to address team defence with new coaches /structure, as well as quality of defenders with Hronek, and possibly Bear. 
 

Add a Livingstone/Malinski, and replace Myers with a shutdown defender, and we have a reason to be hopeful for the playoffs.

[coho8888]

We basically started this season with the same team as last season's end (with a few FA additions).  Same defense and lack of defensive structure.  Difference was the goaltending.  It showed on the PK as its often said that your best penalty killer is your goaltender.  Demko had minor surgery in the off season.  Could this have contributed to his slow start?  If not physically, mentally?  takes time for a goaltender that relies on flexibility and reflexes to get over the mental aspect and play back to form.

 

Once he got injured, it was AHL goaltending for most of the season.  Huge difference in what a bubble Demko brings and what a struggling Back up brings.  You could see it when Demko came back.  Swallowed up the rebounds, making saves look easy etc..  A number 1 goaltender should be good at reading the tendencies of most of the opposing players.  Silovs brings some of that as well but he is still young and developing.

 

We are lucky that we have a true top 5 goaltender.  The same cannot be said for a lot of the teams currently holding playoff spots.

 

 

[Kevin Biestra]

It has been just what we needed.  Bad enough to make sure we missed the playoffs and then terrific ever since.

[VegasCanuck]

Goaltending is definitely part of it, but we have probably been one of the worst 5 teams in the league at suppressing shots, especially from really high probability areas.

 

I would pin our situation more on that and our inability to defend and play defensive hockey with the lead.

 

I really liked couch BB as a person, but he really only coaches offense, which was, I think, a big part of his problem in Washington and why he didn't get results in the playoffs where overall structure is key.

[canuck73_3]

4 hours ago, Drakrami said:

Now imagine if Mikheyev wasn't injured, he would have scored 25 goals for us. Hoglander scores 20 goals and Podkolzin scores 20 goals, both weren't sent down. Horvat wasn't traded, an extra 20 goals from him until the end of the season. 

 

Now with our season +70 goals more, we would easily flip 15 losses into wins. That would make our record that would make us #5 in the conference right now, right at the top of the pack. 

 

Am I doing this right? lol, reality doesn't work that way. 

He didn't say anything about scoring more, just that with even average goaltending to start the year we'd be potentially battling for a wild card spot. Not sure why that is so hard for you to comprehend 

[BCNate]

78%Pk and .910 save% and we are a playoff team.  Those are just league average #'s, but save us a goal every game.

[BCNeil]

Sure a healthy Demko would have most likely helped in the standings, but not the 15 points we need.

Its hard to predict.  Maybe if Demko wasn't hurt, it would help mask the horrible team defense and we never get Bear.  

 

Edited March 17, 2023 by BCNeil

[Guest]

Interesting proposition OP...  we would definitely be battling for a playoff spot.  

 

In a way it's actually better that we didn't get false hope this year with even average goaltending.  We put up some good offensive numbers, turned Bo into a young top 4 RHD, added two very good prospects (Bloom and Raty), saw the emergence of Kuzmenko/Joshua/Aman.  

 

Landing in the top 10 of this strong draft will be a very nice silver lining.  I'm confident that Demko will get back to his old self next year, we're seeing good signs so far.  

 

Artur Silovs has shown that he can play in the NHL, and while I'd like to see him as our AHL starter for one more year, we're not far away from having our backup duties taken care of with Silovs.