Is the Current Canuck Defence Playoff Team Quality? (My Analysis)

[JamesB]

Early in the year, the Canuck D struggled. Hughes was good but after that the D did not do justice to the short-lived "unfinished business" tagline.And JR said in the summer that the D needed work and later added that he was disappointed that he had not been able to upgrade the D. 

 

But a lot has changed since then. The Canucks added Hronek (at high cost in draft picks but he is very good).  They also added Bear without giving up much. In addition,  the depth guys in Abby all made progress. (Yes, every one of those guys made progress which says something very good about the the Abby coaching and developmental staff, especially Jeremy Colliton.) In the second part of the year, Wolanin and Brisebois came up from Abby and showed that they could play the left side just as well as OEL at (literally) one-tenth of the cost.

 

And Tocchet came on board as coach and installed more "structure" which has apparently led to better defensive play generally. Even though the Canuck "playoff probability" has been zero for a while now, they have been one of the best teams in the league in March.  

 

So, do the Canucks have a legitimate playoff quality D at this point -- a D at the level you expect on a team that makes the playoffs?

 

We can break this question down: Do they have a legitimate #1 D, a legitimate #2 D, etc.

 

I tried to answer this question using the data in Evolving Hockey, which has a couple of stats that try to amalgamate all contributions to get a summary measure of performance. Those stats are GAR (goals above replacement) and xGAR (expected goals above replacement). In a small sample xGAR is better and it has the advantage that it "corrects for" goalie performance. But in a large sample GAR has advantages. I won't go into the details here, but I think GAR is the right measure for this question, especially as Canuck goaltending has, overall, been below average this season so using GAR is conservative -- it will understate the D quality slightly.

 

So, how do the numbers stack up? I order Ds by GAR subject to the constraint of playing at least 250 minutes so far this year.  That yields a list of 246 D-men (about 8 per team), including 8 current Canucks.

 

1. As of March 29, the top D in the league is Quinn Hughes. Yes, he is ahead of Karlsson, Makar, Dahlin, and Fox, although all those guys are in the top 10. He is great on the PP, great at 5-on-5, is good at both ends of the ice, and takes very few penalties and draws a lot. So, yes, the Canucks have a legitimate #1 D on a playoff team. Hughes deserves to be on the Norris short list.

 

2. What about the number 2 spot. This is where things get interesting. Filip Hronek ranks 7th in the league by GAR.  The Canucks are the only team in the league with two guys in the top 10. So the Canucks have an excellent top two -- the best top two in the league.

 

3. What about number 3. The third Canuck on the list is Ethan Bear. He ranks 68 in the league. The expected ranking for a #3 D on a playoff team is in the range of 49 to 80. So Bear is comfortably in the range you expect for the #3 guy on a good team.

 

Thanks for reading. Any predictions about who will actually be on the Canuck D next year?

 

4. Things drop off after that. The next three guys are almost the same: OEL ranked 174, Brisebois ranked 177, and Wolanin ranked 178. This puts all three guys at the bottom end of the expected performance for a #6 guy on a good team. Burroughs has performed at the expected level of a #7 guy on a good team, and Myers have performed at the level of a #8 guy.

 

 

All this matches the eye test pretty well. The Canucks have excellent players at #1 and #2 and are solid at #3. After that they have several guys who can play in the 3rd pairing but are missing a good #4 guy and a good #5 guy.

 

Still, the guys at the top matter a lot more. According to my calculations the #1 guy should get a weight of 0.3 in assessing overall D quality for a team and the #2 guys get a weight of 0.2, so half the overall quality is determined by the top two guys (.3 + .2)  The next two guys contribute about 0.3 combined and the other guys (5 through 8) contribute about 0.2.

 

Looked at in this way, when you add things up the Canucks DO have a playoff quality D, easily in the top 16 in the league.

 

What about next year: Hughes and Hronek are under contract. Bear is RFA but there are complications because he has arbitration rights and the Canucks have very little cap room to play with. OEL may or may not be back and may or may not have a bounce back year. Personally, I think he can rise to the level of being a legitimate #4 guy on a good team in the Tocchet coached team. Wolanin and Burroughs are UFA and may or may not be back, but I don't see a problem in assembling a decent third pairing, There are lots of guys contending for those spots: Brisebois is under contract, Wolanin and Burroughs could be re-signed easily, Rathbone is under contract, Juulsen is RFA, Woo has made enough progress to be in the conversation, and Hirose has just been signed. Dermott might be healthy. Maybe Schenn is re-signed. I think Poolman probably stays on LTIR.  I think Myers is likely gone to clear cap space and because he is probably not good enough to make the top 6 next year. The only issue is whether someone will take him off the Canucks' hands.

 

Anyway, I think the Canuck D should be playoff calibre next year and obviously the forwards are playoff calibre. I think the biggest question mark is in goal, but if Demko stays healthy and plays well (as he has since coming back from injury this season and as he did last year), I see the Canucks as solid favorites to make the playoffs and as contenders to win the Pacific Division.

 

END OF SEASON UPDATE: The final numbers were similar but not quite as good. Hughes finishes #2, Hronek at #9, and Bear at #94

Edited May 28, 2023 by JamesB

[Nucker 67]

As long as Demko is healthy, the Canucks can beat anybody.  The D isn't horrible, especially with Hughes and Hronek, but I think the AHL guys (Juulsen, Wolanin, Brisebois) have all played pretty well, filling in. I feel with this D core, they have been missing a #1 pairing for 10 years.  They really need to find Quinn a #1RD.  Bear is not that guy.

[HorvatToBaertschi]

The God awful goaltending to start the year skewed everybody's perception of where our defense is actually at. Under Boudreau last year, they were excellent, and top 3 in ES GA... now under Tocchet and a healthy Demko, we're back to being good defensively. Anybody who thinks our defense stinks, especially with the personnel we've had to ice because of injuries (and OEL played injured all year), I honestly don't know what to tell them.

 

We're not defensive studs by any stretch of the imagination, but it's much better than this fanbase likes to say it is. 

[Dr. Crossbar]

That #2 point is huge! I really don't think people know what we have in Hronek simply because they're not familiar with him.

 

He's 25 ... his best years are ahead of him ... as are those of Hughes. His addition stabilizes our 1D and 2D ... we now need to not settle and add 3/4 ... we can survive 5/6. 

[Alflives]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Crossbar said:

That #2 point is huge! I really don't think people know what we have in Hronek simply because they're not familiar with him.

 

He's 25 ... his best years are ahead of him ... as are those of Hughes. His addition stabilizes our 1D and 2D ... we now need to not settle and add 3/4 ... we can survive 5/6. 

This exactly. Any D corps with Hughes and Hronek is going to be excellent. Those two create a fantastic top four. 

[cripplereh]

We have so far maybe at best three D and the rest need upgrades.Our 7th to 9 seem decent. 

 

We need two solid more D men in our group if we want to get past the first round and second. 

 

If not then we make the playoffs and that's it.

 

 

Our forwards are looking better but still need another good center. 

 

 

Thus off-season two D and a center and we are golden.

 

[Googlie]

A couple of observations....

 

Wolanin is signed for 2 more years

 

I don't think Hronek is going to be as productive with us as he was with Detroit.  Much as OEL's production tailed off when getting just the 15 - 20 secs tag ends of Hughes powerplays, I think Hronek will likewise suffer.  Ofc his defense won't be impacted, but unless Tocchet doubles him with Hughes on the 1st PP, there are going to be a lot of disappointed CDC'ers

 

Good analysis though. 

[Dr. Crossbar]

Really great post! As others have said, our goaltending just bottomed out last season. I agree it completely skewed people's perception of our D. 

 

Also, It'll be really interesting how our prospects slowly improve our D and guys like McWard and Hirose develop and impact our depth. 

[Gawdzukes]

I can't really put any faith in stats that says Bear is in the upper half of the league. He's brutal. As it stands we are easily one of the worst defenses in the league. Predicting we are contenders for the Pacific is hilariously incorrect. We are no where near the level of Vegas. That statement is laughable. I like Hronek but 7th best dman in the league. I don't think so. It really depends on OEL too. Who knows what we're going to get there. Tonnes of question marks. It's almost impossible to guess what our defence will look like. We got 3 guys Hughes, Hronek, and OEL. The other 5 spots are currently up in the air in terms of what the plan going forward will be. I'd imagine there are many irons in the fire and they'll be looking for upgrades.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Gawdzukes

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Gawdzukes said:

I can't really put any faith in stats that says Bear is in the upper half of the league. He's brutal. As it stands we are easily one of the worst defenses in the league. Predicting we are contenders for the Pacific is hilariously incorrect. We are no where near the level of Vegas. That statement is laughable. I like Hronek but 7th best dman in the league. I don't think so. It really depends on OEL too. Who knows what we're going to get there. Tonnes of question marks. It's almost impossible guess what our defence will look like. We got 3 guys Hughes, Hronek, and OEL. The other 5 spots are currently up in the air in terms of what the plan going forward will be. I'd imagine there are many irons in the fire and they'll be looking for upgrades.

Wrong again. We have one of the best D men in the league with Hughes. We added another elite D man in Hronek.

OEL was trying to play on an injured foot. Our D, with the structure of proper coaching, will be top 10 for sure, and likely higher. 
Hughes, Bear

OEL, Hronek

Bone, Myers

Woo

 

[Gawdzukes]

4 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Wrong again. We have one of the best D men in the league with Hughes. We added another elite D man in Hronek.

OEL was trying to play on an injured foot. Our D, with the structure of proper coaching, will be top 10 for sure, and likely higher. 
Hughes, Bear

OEL, Hronek

Bone, Myers

Woo

 

Bear. Myers, and Bone 

 

50% suckage = bottom of the league

Edited May 28, 2023 by Gawdzukes

[Chicken.]

4 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Wrong again. We have one of the best D men in the league with Hughes. We added another elite D man in Hronek.

OEL was trying to play on an injured foot. Our D, with the structure of proper coaching, will be top 10 for sure, and likely higher. 
Hughes, Bear

OEL, Hronek

Bone, Myers

Woo

 

Put Woolanin with Myers

 

Woo/Burroughs fight it out in camp for #7...

Edited May 28, 2023 by Chicken.

[DrJockitch]

8 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

I can't really put any faith in stats that says Bear is in the upper half of the league. He's brutal. As it stands we are easily one of the worst defenses in the league. Predicting we are contenders for the Pacific is hilariously incorrect. We are no where near the level of Vegas. That statement is laughable. I like Hronek but 7th best dman in the league. I don't think so. It really depends on OEL too. Who knows what we're going to get there. Tonnes of question marks. It's almost impossible to guess what our defence will look like. We got 3 guys Hughes, Hronek, and OEL. The other 5 spots are currently up in the air in terms of what the plan going forward will be. I'd imagine there are many irons in the fire and they'll be looking for upgrades.

We could be in for some wild swings from management this off-season. I hope so. Easier if cap goes up a bit more. 
Just please not with the 11th OA or some poorly conceived UFA signing. 

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

Bear. Myers, and Bone 

 

50% suckage = bottom of the league

Nope. Top 10. You be wrong. And lots of guys to call up too. Our D is looking real good. 

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

We could be in for some wild swings from management this off-season. I hope so. Easier if cap goes up a bit more. 
Just please not with the 11th OA or some poorly conceived UFA signing. 

We have competent management again. Benning is gone. We already made our big acquisition with Hronek. He will anchor our second pairing. We will pick at 11 and get a great prospect. 

[Gawdzukes]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

Nope. Top 10. You be wrong. And lots of guys to call up too. Our D is looking real good. 

Put down the bottle ... or make it a double.

[Gawdzukes]

8 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

We could be in for some wild swings from management this off-season. I hope so. Easier if cap goes up a bit more. 
Just please not with the 11th OA or some poorly conceived UFA signing. 

Yeah. Indeed, I can't see the management group leaving things they way they are. They've said themselves how poor the group is and their disappointment at not upgrading it. They will be retooling at all costs. Well hopefully not the 11th overall but I agree our 2024 first is as good as gone, just a matter of when. I heard the cap situation won't be known for a month but I'm not sure it will go up. The players union needs to give up a lot of money for that to happen. Hopefully though.

[DrJockitch]

37 minutes ago, Alflives said:

We have competent management again. Benning is gone. We already made our big acquisition with Hronek. He will anchor our second pairing. We will pick at 11 and get a great prospect. 

One addition is not enough to fix this team. 
Still have the big problem of OEL and Myers taking minutes on “D”.

Wingers still too small and not overly quick. 
Still only 2 natural centres on the NHL club. 
Lots of work to be done yet, don’t let one shiny bauble fool you. We added a great shiny bauble in Kuz last year and still got worse. 

Edited May 28, 2023 by DrJockitch

[DeNiro]

53 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

Bear. Myers, and Bone 

 

50% suckage = bottom of the league

If they’re serious about being a playoff team they need at least two top 6 D (probably three) and they need to jettison Myers.

 

Theres no way a Hughes/Bear pairing is the answer.

Hughes UFA/Trade

OEL Hronek

Gavrikov UFA

 

 

Edited May 28, 2023 by DeNiro

[erkayloomeh]

When the team has struggled over the last two tears they look very disorganized as a whole. There is just an unusual amount players playing bad or not up to potential. 

So the systems need to be sorted out first before proper player evaluation can be determined. 

I personally believe that if that is fixed then we may see a better OEL, Myers, boeser and Garland. That said there is also a personal problem. There is not enough a**holes on this team. Or maybe none. 

We have a pushover team. 

Hard to evaluate a d core when your goaltending socks, team structure is bad on you have a bunch pansies on your team. That's why guys like Burroughs and JT are important to this team. 

Team structure

Grit and a**holes

Then let's move forward from there.