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Not a good recipe, it's just not, this team is destined for more failure.

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On 4/30/2023 at 11:33 PM, iceman64 said:

Ok I'll try to make it more clear, sure we were successful under MG but he locked in 13 NTC's including Luongo, which handcuffed us for years no matter who our GM would have been. After 2012 our core was broken but we were stuck with it.. and look how long Luongo took to get off the books, that was horrible. 

 

What 13?

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Destined for more failure.

 

Here is a future concern and failure that leads to that now.

 

Who is the 2nd line center in 3 years?

 

Should the target not be a 2nd line center now? Especially if the team is "building" and developing?

 

The 3rd line center is just an energy guy with Tocchet, a big fast forechecker, all that is needed for that is to be able to skate fast and hit hard. Work long the boards well. If I got anything out of all those end of season meaningless games is was there are a couple of prospective 3rd line centers already here.

 

But the talk is all about getting a third line center because they don't want fans to see what is plain as a freight train bearing down on the team, Miller will not be good enough in 3 years to be the 2nd line center unless Pettersson leaves.

 

Speaking of Pettersson, if he does not sign a new long term deal before July 1 then the team almost has to trade Miller otherwise he will become the new Eriksson or OEL in 3 years when he hits 33 yrs old. Look around the league is O'Reilly the same as he was 3 years ago? Taveras? Toews, Kane or Taresenko? What makes anyone think Miller will be that much different? And on a team that will be leaning on him even more due to not having the supporting depth.

 

If he gets to July 1 then Miller dictates the direction of the team, not management or at least influences what the team can do way out of proportion to his contribution and dollar value.

 

When it was Eriksson it was how his cap hit was damaging improvement, now it is OEL, both players could play but not up to their dollar value and their contracts had the team handcuffed causing FAs to walk for free, draft picks to be traded and no time for development. Since 2014 draft the team got lucky twice, Brackett's insistence to take Pettersson and Detroit's taking Zedina instead.

 

They let the cap manage the team instead of the team managing the cap.

 

That has to change. IMO thy can do this if they use the cap spent already through retention. While there is a cap hit still on the books it can be managed through the used of entry level contracts or second contracts and the cap going up.

 

Lots of posting about buying out OEL. Okay, it is not his play so much, which is declining like most 30+ year olds (see Miller) it is the cap hit. If he were bought out the cap hit in 2 of the next 3 years is larger than a 50% retention with nothing coming back and lasting 8 years. Where as a 50% retention will result in a 3.3 mil cap hit for 4 years it also allows for something to come back. Make no mistake OEL at 3.6 mil is very valuable as a 3,4 or 5 guy or even if matched with a far better defenceman than Canucks have even more.

 

Buyout OEL equals nothing coming back and costing the team for 8 years.

Retention equals a cap hit for 4 years AND a prospect/pick coming back.

 

Boeser is the same thing only with a larger return

 

Buyout equals 4 years of over 2 mil cap hits with nothing coming back

Retention equals 2 years of a 3.3 mil cap hit but increases his trade value immensely at 3.3 mil, a much higher draft pick AND a AAA prospect  

 

Garland not so much for a buyout

 

Buyout equals 6 years of cap hits

Retention equals 4 years but with a return of a prospect or pick.

 

If retention is used in all three at 50% which is negotiable, then the cap relief for the Canucks is close to 9.5 million, and that goes up if retention is less. Plus the addition of whatever assets come back this way. Assets have trade value too so there could be immediate improvement if Allvin wants to cap out the team and make the situation even worse than now because he will not have the retention spots for two years.

 

IF a Miller trade is on the table and the team did retain say 12% of his salary, around 1 million he could get at least a first round pick in return plus a younger center or young defenceman with top 2 potential from some teams. 

 

IMO there are about 9 teams that would be interested in acquiring Miller now as they are all set up to win now or retool due to having older vets on the team or just retiring, they are NYR, Washington, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg, Boston, St Louis, Columbus, Nashville and the Islanders. All will have enough cap space, some with only some minor work. These could be with taking on the full contract but retention could add to the return.

 

There are players/picks/prospects on every team that would help the Canucks in the next 2 seasons go from idling along waiting for entropy to catch up to other teams to be a team on the climb through talent, depth and skill.

 

Retooling in this fashion, through the use of retention to get more picks, young players and prospects shows Pettersson that the team will be much better as he ages himself.

 

I remind fans that while Pettersson is only 24 now he is 26 in 18 months and Horvat was traded at 27 and he has stated he isn't sad in his new home.

 

And that Pettersson and his agent are not fanatically loyal to this team as his statements of wanting to play in the playoffs with a chance to win he made clear. This will be demonstrated by how fast and how long his next contract will be. If he does a Dubois type deal then this team is in for a world of hurt because they will not be able to change the direction they have set. They will be capped out with no first line prospects in the system, none of the calibre of Pettersson and Miller will be over the hump of his prime

 

In 2013 and today who is being sold to the fans

Sedins = Pettersson and Hughes

Kesler =  Miller

Luongo/Markstrom/Miller = Demko

 

The big difference is President Trophies and a cup final appearance.

 

The Sedins get trotted out for celebrations a couple of times a year, the old 94 team gets a night, the 2010 team a night lots of nostalgia nights because there is nothing now.

 

For those fans that cling to the results of the end of the season.

For two years in a row the team won lots of meaningless games at the end of the season. So did many bottom teams over the last 4 years.

The team has the same players only older and had even fewer points last year.

They still lack depth and are capped out.

They are still trading away 1rst and 2nd round picks for middle of the road players, Hronek might be a beta version of Tanev, maybe 

 

Draft Lottery on Monday maybe it the team's turn to move up Bedard would be nice, Fantilli great. Now watch Allvin trades the first today before the lottery and then says "It was Monday in Sweden where I live"

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6 hours ago, ToTellTheTruth said:

Destined for more failure.

 

Here is a future concern and failure that leads to that now.

 

Who is the 2nd line center in 3 years?

 

Should the target not be a 2nd line center now? Especially if the team is "building" and developing?

 

The 3rd line center is just an energy guy with Tocchet, a big fast forechecker, all that is needed for that is to be able to skate fast and hit hard. Work long the boards well. If I got anything out of all those end of season meaningless games is was there are a couple of prospective 3rd line centers already here.

 

But the talk is all about getting a third line center because they don't want fans to see what is plain as a freight train bearing down on the team, Miller will not be good enough in 3 years to be the 2nd line center unless Pettersson leaves.

 

Speaking of Pettersson, if he does not sign a new long term deal before July 1 then the team almost has to trade Miller otherwise he will become the new Eriksson or OEL in 3 years when he hits 33 yrs old. Look around the league is O'Reilly the same as he was 3 years ago? Taveras? Toews, Kane or Taresenko? What makes anyone think Miller will be that much different? And on a team that will be leaning on him even more due to not having the supporting depth.

 

If he gets to July 1 then Miller dictates the direction of the team, not management or at least influences what the team can do way out of proportion to his contribution and dollar value.

 

When it was Eriksson it was how his cap hit was damaging improvement, now it is OEL, both players could play but not up to their dollar value and their contracts had the team handcuffed causing FAs to walk for free, draft picks to be traded and no time for development. Since 2014 draft the team got lucky twice, Brackett's insistence to take Pettersson and Detroit's taking Zedina instead.

 

They let the cap manage the team instead of the team managing the cap.

 

That has to change. IMO thy can do this if they use the cap spent already through retention. While there is a cap hit still on the books it can be managed through the used of entry level contracts or second contracts and the cap going up.

 

Lots of posting about buying out OEL. Okay, it is not his play so much, which is declining like most 30+ year olds (see Miller) it is the cap hit. If he were bought out the cap hit in 2 of the next 3 years is larger than a 50% retention with nothing coming back and lasting 8 years. Where as a 50% retention will result in a 3.3 mil cap hit for 4 years it also allows for something to come back. Make no mistake OEL at 3.6 mil is very valuable as a 3,4 or 5 guy or even if matched with a far better defenceman than Canucks have even more.

 

Buyout OEL equals nothing coming back and costing the team for 8 years.

Retention equals a cap hit for 4 years AND a prospect/pick coming back.

 

Boeser is the same thing only with a larger return

 

Buyout equals 4 years of over 2 mil cap hits with nothing coming back

Retention equals 2 years of a 3.3 mil cap hit but increases his trade value immensely at 3.3 mil, a much higher draft pick AND a AAA prospect  

 

Garland not so much for a buyout

 

Buyout equals 6 years of cap hits

Retention equals 4 years but with a return of a prospect or pick.

 

If retention is used in all three at 50% which is negotiable, then the cap relief for the Canucks is close to 9.5 million, and that goes up if retention is less. Plus the addition of whatever assets come back this way. Assets have trade value too so there could be immediate improvement if Allvin wants to cap out the team and make the situation even worse than now because he will not have the retention spots for two years.

 

IF a Miller trade is on the table and the team did retain say 12% of his salary, around 1 million he could get at least a first round pick in return plus a younger center or young defenceman with top 2 potential from some teams. 

 

IMO there are about 9 teams that would be interested in acquiring Miller now as they are all set up to win now or retool due to having older vets on the team or just retiring, they are NYR, Washington, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg, Boston, St Louis, Columbus, Nashville and the Islanders. All will have enough cap space, some with only some minor work. These could be with taking on the full contract but retention could add to the return.

 

There are players/picks/prospects on every team that would help the Canucks in the next 2 seasons go from idling along waiting for entropy to catch up to other teams to be a team on the climb through talent, depth and skill.

 

Retooling in this fashion, through the use of retention to get more picks, young players and prospects shows Pettersson that the team will be much better as he ages himself.

 

I remind fans that while Pettersson is only 24 now he is 26 in 18 months and Horvat was traded at 27 and he has stated he isn't sad in his new home.

 

And that Pettersson and his agent are not fanatically loyal to this team as his statements of wanting to play in the playoffs with a chance to win he made clear. This will be demonstrated by how fast and how long his next contract will be. If he does a Dubois type deal then this team is in for a world of hurt because they will not be able to change the direction they have set. They will be capped out with no first line prospects in the system, none of the calibre of Pettersson and Miller will be over the hump of his prime

 

In 2013 and today who is being sold to the fans

Sedins = Pettersson and Hughes

Kesler =  Miller

Luongo/Markstrom/Miller = Demko

 

The big difference is President Trophies and a cup final appearance.

 

The Sedins get trotted out for celebrations a couple of times a year, the old 94 team gets a night, the 2010 team a night lots of nostalgia nights because there is nothing now.

 

For those fans that cling to the results of the end of the season.

For two years in a row the team won lots of meaningless games at the end of the season. So did many bottom teams over the last 4 years.

The team has the same players only older and had even fewer points last year.

They still lack depth and are capped out.

They are still trading away 1rst and 2nd round picks for middle of the road players, Hronek might be a beta version of Tanev, maybe 

 

Draft Lottery on Monday maybe it the team's turn to move up Bedard would be nice, Fantilli great. Now watch Allvin trades the first today before the lottery and then says "It was Monday in Sweden where I live"

Garland and Boeser will be gone, they just don't fit Toc's mold anyway but rest assured even if we have to retain some cap in either case it won't be a deal breaker. 

 Everything sort of hinges on one thing, Bettman, usually full of $hit but in March he quoted that a cap increase would be considered for this season even though escrow hasn't been paid off yet since so many teams are in cap crunch.

 Anything would be helpful at this point but it could be b.s. too. 

 However we need to trade for either picks or prospects coming back but we can't be doing the opposite as per usual, that's why we're in the state we're in to begin with, without depth, that's the failure part we've sucked at because management/ownership continued to listen and react to a lot stupid, (*shortsighted*), sell the farm fans/media for a one and done. 

 Which brings us back to where we are today after a franchise history of trying that scenario that never worked instead of building a elite team with depth... 

THAT is the real reason for failure here in Vancouver

 

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3 minutes ago, iceman64 said:

Garland and Boeser will be gone, they just don't fit Toc's mold anyway but rest assured even if we have to retain some cap in either case it won't be a deal breaker. 

 Everything sort of hinges on one thing, Bettman, usually full of $hit but in March he quoted that a cap increase would be considered for this season even though escrow hasn't been paid off yet since so many teams are in cap crunch.

 Anything would be helpful at this point but it could be b.s. too. 

 However we need to trade for either picks or prospects coming back but we can't be doing the opposite as per usual, that's why we're in the state we're in to begin with, without depth, that's the failure part we've sucked at because management/ownership continued to listen and react to a lot stupid, (*shortsighted*), sell the farm fans/media for a one and done. 

 Which brings us back to where we are today after a franchise history of trying that scenario that never worked instead of building a elite team with depth... 

THAT is the real reason for failure here in Vancouver

 

Brock stays. He’s a line driver. The Smurf is gone . 

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1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Brock stays. He’s a line driver. The Smurf is gone . 

Sort of, I'm concerned with his wrist and back with no tough side to really speak of which we need more of a balance of both in a player. 

 Plus we have a log jam of newbies needing shots at it and even if they aren't quite there then at least we know and can adjust plans accordingly but we have enough scoring punch to add more physical punch so losing a sniper soft-ish wouldn't hurt us much if at all and both players combined cap isn't exactly chump change right?  And Myers is off the books next year so upgrades and raises along the way is a for sure consideration of dumping some cap in favour of younger group and not so many FA's because you can only win so many of those, some work, some don't, we've seen our share. 

 And not to mention the injury luck this team has had over the years and the depth we lacked all this time, gets exposed and gets nowhere but we never seem to get that going that route instead of running a successful farm from draft on up, that a laughable wishful way of thinking. 

Idk anymore, why the F do people think anything else is going to work ffs??! 

This is the Canucks history in a bottle.. yeah fun to watch said roster with next to zero depth play great and win lots and make the playoffs only to be bounced out when injuries hit and no one to step in like the deep elite teams have. 

 

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Miller's getting up there, he'll start to decline soon. Then who is the no. 2 centre? Our defence is grim, OEL is done and the Chaos Giraffe is bad. Ownership needs to understand fans would actually like to watch a young team grow into a winner over a few years. At least the goal is the Stanley Cup. This approach of being barely mediocre, with a couple of stars to squeak into the playoffs and lose, isn't working. I'm not looking forward to watching Chicago grow into a Stanley Cup fave. 

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2 hours ago, clutesi said:

Miller's getting up there, he'll start to decline soon. Then who is the no. 2 centre? Our defence is grim, OEL is done and the Chaos Giraffe is bad. Ownership needs to understand fans would actually like to watch a young team grow into a winner over a few years. At least the goal is the Stanley Cup. This approach of being barely mediocre, with a couple of stars to squeak into the playoffs and lose, isn't working. I'm not looking forward to watching Chicago grow into a Stanley Cup fave. 

That deepends on your age :P

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 5/9/2023 at 9:16 AM, clutesi said:

Miller's getting up there, he'll start to decline soon. Then who is the no. 2 centre? Our defence is grim, OEL is done and the Chaos Giraffe is bad. Ownership needs to understand fans would actually like to watch a young team grow into a winner over a few years. At least the goal is the Stanley Cup. This approach of being barely mediocre, with a couple of stars to squeak into the playoffs and lose, isn't working. I'm not looking forward to watching Chicago grow into a Stanley Cup fave. 

I know this was awhile ago but I disagree on Miller to start off with, you can tell her in good shape and doesn't have a extensive injury background, and I'll point to others like OV who are still racking up points and Miller simply has too much skill to drop of the edge or even anything close to it. 

 Notice we have a decent 2nd tier group besides Petey and Miller? Mik was one of the best signings we've done in awhile, one of the fastest skaters in the league, Then Kuz, self explanatory, I also expect this year Podz will turn it on especially with more ice time to work on his game and he was trending when he got injured but you can bet he's going to be working his ____ off all summer. Then Hogs, already showing a ton of good things with more ice time and coaching to hone his game as well and we shouldn't be surprised by this as both are still fairly young in their progression. Now both just need big club play which they will have a chance, they both have a great skill set, it's just a matter of upping their dgame and being consistent. Both were/are second line projections and it's a wait and see who gets 2nd and 3rd line duties. 

PA commented possibly filling those positions from within and that probably means a serious look at both before making a move IF either one doesn't work out but both would be a cost affective UFA signing. 

 Then there's the Boeser/Garland/11th scenario if that factors in as in a trade.. 

 I think we all know it's a bit early for predictions but I think it's ok this one last time if we need to trade our pick in a package to a Boeser like player who can score but has a edge and size this team is looking for,  and a RHD who doesn't need to score a lot but shuts down instead. 

 You don't need scoring from the backend to be highly successful so long as their better at keeping the puck out of ours including crease clearing, the biggest guy on D we have is Myers and he's gone soon so that makes it all that more important to size up anywhere we can. 

If we don't, we may still get into the playoffs BUT we'd never get far and we've had enough of that in the past. 

 What JR and AL do in the next 2 years can basically make or break us.. 

 We're in a lot better of a position now with all the old guard gone, and now with a couple of key moves to fill out the roster, we can keep every pick from now on and just build a farm that provides depth from development, and good depth so we don't lose games to roster guys getting injured. 

 As always, cautiously optimistic, waiting to see if now, for once we won't have to continue to sell picks for a set roster after the tweaks are done, will we truly will push for being a hard forechecking, fast, O and D skilled team. 

 with depth. 

 Wouldn't that be a thing for once?!

 

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On 5/7/2023 at 7:42 PM, iceman64 said:

Garland and Boeser will be gone, they just don't fit Toc's mold anyway but rest assured even if we have to retain some cap in either case it won't be a deal breaker. 

 Everything sort of hinges on one thing, Bettman, usually full of $hit but in March he quoted that a cap increase would be considered for this season even though escrow hasn't been paid off yet since so many teams are in cap crunch.

 Anything would be helpful at this point but it could be b.s. too. 

 However we need to trade for either picks or prospects coming back but we can't be doing the opposite as per usual, that's why we're in the state we're in to begin with, without depth, that's the failure part we've sucked at because management/ownership continued to listen and react to a lot stupid, (*shortsighted*), sell the farm fans/media for a one and done. 

 Which brings us back to where we are today after a franchise history of trying that scenario that never worked instead of building a elite team with depth... 

THAT is the real reason for failure here in Vancouver

 

Boeser significantly improved under Tocchet, defensively and started hitting more. 

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