The 2023-24 Cap Situation: Could the Canucks Stand Pat

[JamesB]

After the Canucks re-signed Kuzmenko there was a flurry of discussion about the Canucks "already being over the cap" with only 17 or 18 likely 2023-24 roster players under contract generating a cap hit over 82.5 million (the current cap). But that was misleading as it did not account for players on LTIR.  Still there has been a lot of discussion of the "need" to shed salary, focusing on the possibility of buying out OEL, trading at least one of Boeser, Garland or Beauvillier, or trading Myers, presumably after paying his bonus on September 15.

 

But I was wondering if the Canucks really need to shed salary or if they could essentially stand pat -- not making any major moves to shed salary.

And if they do essentially stand pat, how much cap room would they have to maybe sign a 3C.

 

Cap Friendly is obviously a great tool for doing this. In order to get a number for next year I had to make a few assumptions about what happens to injured players and free agents. 

I made following assumptions:

 

1. Injured Players: I am assuming the Hronek, OEL, and Mikheyev will healthy and ready to go at the start of next season. All the available information is consistent with this.

2. LTIR players: I am assuming that Pearson and Poolman will remain on LTIR, at least to start the season. I think this is very likely.

3. RFAs. Hirose, Juulsen, and Kravtsov may or may not be on the team but they are all making under 1 million so whether they are on the team or some other low cost player is on the team does not affect the calculation in any meaningful way. But I have assumed that none of them will be on the 23 man roster to start next season. Dermott is a bigger question mark. He might play, he might go on LTIR, he might be traded or the Canucks might just let him go.  I did not put him in the 23-man roster. The biggest question mark is Bear. The Canucks want to re-sign him and negotiations are ongoing. His qualifying offer is 2.2. but his agent has apparently asked for quite a bit more. I have him in at $2.5 million. That might be low, but I don't think he would get much more in arbitration. I assumed no UFAs would be re-signed but it would make no difference to the calculation if, say, the team re-signed Burroughs.

4. Other, I assume Johanssen would make the team. But it would no difference to the calculation if Burroughs or Juulsen were there instead. Or Hoglander could be there instead of Studnika but, once again, that would not affect the calculation much even though Hoglander is an RFA.

 

Here is the CapFriendly output:

 

 

 

The total cap for this stand pat roster is 82.49 million.

Next year's cap is projected to go to 83.5 million but Bettman has said it is likely to go up by more, maybe to 84 million or 84.5 million. I will assume 84 million. This leaves 1.5 million in cap space.

 

The Canucks could "upgrade" one of the positions The most obvious upgrade would be to get a 3C. The Canucks could drop Dries or Studnkia out of the 23-man roster, releasing 762 K. Adding in 1.5 in unused space the Canucks could spend a little over 2.2 million for a 3C upgrade.  

 

This is what they could do. They will of course try to do better than this but they would need other teams to play ball if they want to make trades. My main point is that the Canucks could more or less stand pat if they want. If Miller and Boeser play like they have under Tocchet and OEL has a bounce-back this team would actually be pretty good. And if we get a positive surprise from a young guy (Hirose, Raty, or someone else) that would be even better.

 

My personal prediction is that the Canucks trade Myers after Sept 15 and use the cap space to make a late addition at C or at RD. 

 

Thanks for reading (to anyone who got this far).

Edited April 14, 2023 by JamesB

[Guest]

Thank you for putting this together.  

 

If we move one of the wingers, we are laughing.  

 

If we move out one of the wingers and trade Myers, we are looking at a lot of cap flexibility and also cap space accruing next year.  

[Angry Goose]

Standing pat is not an option.  

 

Dries would be great as an extra forward or first recall option, but the bottom 6 needs 2 more PKrs to lighten the workload on EP/JT.  So another C and preferably a play driving PK winger.  

 

Defense needs a different look as well (PKr, grit).

 

So 2/3 of Garland/Boeser/Beauvillier up front and Myers if possible in the back end.  

 

If they are able to sign JT Compher there’s your 1-2-3 down the middle.  

 

[DrJockitch]

Myers only moves if he wants to and he loves it here. 
They will never throw away $20M of the owners money to buy out OEL.

One of the wingers listed isn’t really enough to make a difference. Really need to try to move all of Boesser, Garland and Beau or at least 2 of. 
I think we will see next years first dangled to open up space and go on a short sighted spending spree which will put us in a pinch next off-season when we need $20M in cap space for Hronek and EP.

[OldFaithfulCap]

If myers and OEL are the second pairing next year then we are completely doomed

[Phil_314]

If Di Giuseppe is truly a permanent fixture and Beauvillier gets moved to the 3rd line, we gotta move Beauvillier otherwise he's gonna be the next Garland (speedy, can score, but underproductive and underutilized).  Haven't seen enough from Aman and Dries to be convinced that they're our #3 and #4, and I would be fine with Myers here, as long as he's not in our top-4 or next to OEL since that pair doesn't work.

[IBatch]

Thanks OP for doing the work.   I doubt we see Myers traded, but do think one of our wingers will be traded for an underwhelming return.    And that's about it.  

[Guest]

11 hours ago, DrJockitch said:

Myers only moves if he wants to and he loves it here. 
They will never throw away $20M of the owners money to buy out OEL.

One of the wingers listed isn’t really enough to make a difference. Really need to try to move all of Boesser, Garland and Beau or at least 2 of. 
I think we will see next years first dangled to open up space and go on a short sighted spending spree which will put us in a pinch next off-season when we need $20M in cap space for Hronek and EP.

I hope you are wrong on all accounts, especially when it comes to the 1st. 

[Rabbit]

If the Management could trade JT, there will be no cap issue.

[JamesB]

2 hours ago, Rabbit said:

If the Management could trade JT, there will be no cap issue.

Yes, I thought about stating this explicitly in the OP, but I just don't think it is likely to happen. I wanted to trade JT all along, including at last year's deadline, but JR and PA are all in on next year and the year after as the "window of opportunity" so I think he will stay.

[cripplereh]

At the draft we trade BB,Rathbone and a 4th for decent younger Center plus a 2nd.

 

Then trade Hogs and futures knowing it would be Myers after his bonus. For a 2nd or 3,Rd this year 4th next. 

 

Trade Dermott for a 4th. 

 

Qualify Bear 2.2

 

 

Our D should be good with 

 

QH.  Johansson

Hirose. Hronek  

OEL. McWard 

 

Bear. 

 

That should give us enough money to keep who we want.

 

Year after buyout OEL as Hronek and EP need new contracts.

Plus Poolman and Pearson will be gone.

[Dr. Crossbar]

On 4/13/2023 at 6:19 PM, JamesB said:

After the Canucks re-signed Kuzmenko there was a flurry of discussion about the Canucks "already being over the cap" with only 17 or 18 likely 2023-24 roster players under contract generating a cap hit over 82.5 million (the current cap). But that was misleading as it did not account for players on LTIR.  Still there has been a lot of discussion of the "need" to shed salary, focusing on the possibility of buying out OEL, trading at least one of Boeser, Garland or Beauvillier, or trading Myers, presumably after paying his bonus on September 15.

 

But I was wondering if the Canucks really need to shed salary or if they could essentially stand pat -- not making any major moves to shed salary.

And if they do essentially stand pat, how much cap room would they have to maybe sign a 3C.

 

Cap Friendly is obviously a great tool for doing this. In order to get a number for next year I had to make a few assumptions about what happens to injured players and free agents. 

I made following assumptions:

 

1. Injured Players: I am assuming the Hronek, OEL, and Mikheyev will healthy and ready to go at the start of next season. All the available information is consistent with this.

2. LTIR players: I am assuming that Pearson and Poolman will remain on LTIR, at least to start the season. I think this is very likely.

3. RFAs. Hirose, Juulsen, and Kravtsov may or may not be on the team but they are all making under 1 million so whether they are on the team or some other low cost player is on the team does not affect the calculation in any meaningful way. But I have assumed that none of them will be on the 23 man roster to start next season. Dermott is a bigger question mark. He might play, he might go on LTIR, he might be traded or the Canucks might just let him go.  I did not put him in the 23-man roster. The biggest question mark is Bear. The Canucks want to re-sign him and negotiations are ongoing. His qualifying offer is 2.2. but his agent has apparently asked for quite a bit more. I have him in at $2.5 million. That might be low, but I don't think he would get much more in arbitration. I assumed no UFAs would be re-signed but it would make no difference to the calculation if, say, the team re-signed Burroughs.

4. Other, I assume Johanssen would make the team. But it would no difference to the calculation if Burroughs or Juulsen were there instead. Or Hoglander could be there instead of Studnika but, once again, that would not affect the calculation much even though Hoglander is an RFA.

 

Here is the CapFriendly output:

 

 

 

The total cap for this stand pat roster is 82.49 million.

Next year's cap is projected to go to 83.5 million but Bettman has said it is likely to go up by more, maybe to 84 million or 84.5 million. I will assume 84 million. This leaves 1.5 million in cap space.

 

The Canucks could "upgrade" one of the positions The most obvious upgrade would be to get a 3C. The Canucks could drop Dries or Studnkia out of the 23-man roster, releasing 762 K. Adding in 1.5 in unused space the Canucks could spend a little over 2.2 million for a 3C upgrade.  

 

This is what they could do. They will of course try to do better than this but they would need other teams to play ball if they want to make trades. My main point is that the Canucks could more or less stand pat if they want. If Miller and Boeser play like they have under Tocchet and OEL has a bounce-back this team would actually be pretty good. And if we get a positive surprise from a young guy (Hirose, Raty, or someone else) that would be even better.

 

My personal prediction is that the Canucks trade Myers after Sept 15 and use the cap space to make a late addition at C or at RD. 

 

Thanks for reading (to anyone who got this far).

Great post! The cap increase looks to be exactly that. 

 

Interesting prediction about Myers being dealt in Sept and possibly making a late addition. Makes it all the more important that we get off to a good start and maintain momentum so we're not too far in a hole when we make a late addition.