Let's Not Panic -- Cap Situation is NOT that Dire

[HKSR]

Just wanted to provide some clarity on the Canucks situation moving into next year. 

 

The Canucks are NOT as cap crunched and in desperate need to shed cap space like some people make them out to be.  Would it help to shed cap and improve our defence group?  OF COURSE.  But, it's very clear we could start next season with what we've got and not be pressured into making a move to dump cap (ie. VGK and Pacioretty).

 

This is assuming Poolman and Pearson remain on LTIR, which is a very high possibility given their medical statuses.

 

The lineup doesn't look great, but we could work with it and find moves within the season.  $4M in cap space to work with to fill out the defence group.  Perhaps Hoglander and Podkolzin take those next steps as well.  I don't think scoring will be an issue.  Defence is obviously the weak point.

 

Beauvillier-Petey-Kuzmenko

DiGiuseppe-Miller-Boeser

Mikheyev-Dries-Podkolzin

Joshua-Aman-Garland

Studnicka

 

Hughes-Schenn??

OEL-Hronek

Brisebois-Myers

Burroughs? Hirose?

 

Demko

Backup

 

TLDR:

- Canucks are NOT cap crunched (assuming Poolman and Pearson remain on LTIR)

- Canucks are not in a pressure situation to move out cap

- Canucks can start the season status quo, perhaps providing more opportunity for the youth in the system and make trades within the season

- $4M in cap space to fill out the defence group to start the season

[Angry Goose]

*whispers* I think you forgot about Bear

[Drakrami]

I dont get the point of this post.. You are basically saying we ace the same lineup from 22/23 and our cap will be ok. Well duh, our cap was ok for 22/23. 

A few questions though. 

 

Are we going with Silovs as backup? The #1 problem with last season was we cheaped out on goalie. Demko crapped the bed. And Martin is not NHL calibre, let alone take over starter job when Demko got injured. This was a JR mistake. Benning always made sure we had goalie depth. 

 

3C? 

 

Re-signing Bear or getting some quality defensive depth? 

 

Each of those questsions cost a few million. Now that's your cap problem. 

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Angry Goose said:

*whispers* I think you forgot about Bear

Bear is an RFA. We can just let him go. Bye bye Bear. 

[King Heffy]

Dries belongs nowhere near an NHL roster.

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, Angry Goose said:

*whispers* I think you forgot about Bear

 

1 minute ago, Drakrami said:

I dont get the point of this post.. You are basically saying we ace the same lineup from 22/23 and our cap will be ok. Well duh, our cap was ok for 22/23. 

A few questions though. 

 

Are we going with Silovs as backup? The #1 problem with last season was we cheaped out on goalie. Demko crapped the bed. And Martin is not NHL calibre, let alone take over starter job when Demko got injured. This was a JR mistake. Benning always made sure we had goalie depth. 

 

3C? 

 

Re-signing Bear or getting some quality defensive depth? 

 

Each of those questsions cost a few million. Now that's your cap problem. 

I wouldn't pay Bear more than $2M AAV.  Bottom pair LHD would cost less than $1M.  The entire roster is then complete and ready to go.

 

Same lineup from the prior year doesn't necessarily mean cap compliancy for the next year.  Player contracts come due, and some players will get raises.  If Petey's deal was up in 2022/23 and was due $11M this coming year, we'd have the same roster but a MUCH bigger cap issue.

 

We've spent big money on backups before and it didn't provide a great benefit either. 

[DSVII]

Getting Myers off our books will go a long way to making the D-core more flexible from a salary perspective.

 

As others have said, the crunch of course won't exist in a world where the Canucks stand pat and let the contracts run it's course. But the mandate is to make the playoffs and contend next year. 

 

To do that we need a 3C, and we need that depth defense. That will cost more than the $4 mil (assuming Poolman and Pearson stay on LTIR), that's when teams like Chicago can pounce on us and offer to take Myers or Garland in exchange for premium draft capital. Ideally, I really hope Hirose sticks with the team next year, both cost efficient and he showed promise in his limited games with us.

 

Crunch or no crunch, that margin of error to the cap ceiling is a tight space to operate within. 

Edited May 26, 2023 by DSVII

[MeanSeanBean]

I mean, it's not great. Why has it been a major talking point at nearly every chance by the management team if it wasn't something that needed to be adressed?

[HKSR]

6 minutes ago, DSVII said:

Getting Myers off our books will go a long way to making the D-core more flexible from a salary perspective.

 

As others have said, the crunch of course won't exist in a world where the Canucks stand pat and let the contracts run it's course. But the mandate is to make the playoffs and contend next year. 

 

To do that we need a 3C, and we need that depth defense. That will cost more than the $4 mil (assuming Poolman and Pearson stay on LTIR), that's when teams like Chicago can pounce on us and offer to take Myers or Garland in exchange for premium draft capital.

 

Crunch or no crunch, that margin of error to the cap ceiling is a tight space to operate within. 

There's word out there that the cap could go up by $2M and not just $1M.  That gives us $5M to work with.

 

Like I said above, I wouldn't sign Bear to more than $2M AAV.  If he doesn't accept, he can go. 

 

Schenn could conceivably come back at $1.5M to $2M.  We probably have a LHD in our system that can play the 3rd pair LHD role for under $1M.

 

So let's say Schenn at 1.75, 3LHD at 1 = 2.75M spent.  $2.25 remaining. 

 

If we do get a 3C, that means Dries is out of a job.  So $2 to $2.5M on a 3C like Kampf and we're still cap compliant.

 

Bottomline is we should NOT be pressured into making a cap dump trade just because it'd be NICE to move out some cap. 

 

Edited May 26, 2023 by HKSR

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, MeanSeanBean said:

I mean, it's not great. Why has it been a major talking point at nearly every chance by the management team if it wasn't something that needed to be adressed?

Moving out cap would be ideal because it provides the flexibility to dramatically improve.  That's the job of the management team, to improve as much as possible.  I'm just saying it shouldn't be done in a situation where we are paying an arm and a leg to do it.  We're not in a position to make pressure cap clearing transactions (ie. dumping draft capital or prospects to move out some cap).

[EddieVedder]

IF Dries is still our 3c and Boeser is in our top 6, the seasons over before it even starts. 

 

[Alflives]

7 minutes ago, MeanSeanBean said:

I mean, it's not great. Why has it been a major talking point at nearly every chance by the management team if it wasn't something that needed to be adressed?

Maybe management is laying the foundation to move out contracts attached to picks/prospects? And When that happens we fans were expecting it, so lessens the blow to the club's ticket sales?

[kloubek]

20 minutes ago, DSVII said:

Getting Myers off our books will go a long way to making the D-core more flexible from a salary perspective.

 

As others have said, the crunch of course won't exist in a world where the Canucks stand pat and let the contracts run it's course. But the mandate is to make the playoffs and contend next year. 

 

To do that we need a 3C, and we need that depth defense. That will cost more than the $4 mil (assuming Poolman and Pearson stay on LTIR), that's when teams like Chicago can pounce on us and offer to take Myers or Garland in exchange for premium draft capital. Ideally, I really hope Hirose sticks with the team next year, both cost efficient and he showed promise in his limited games with us.

 

Crunch or no crunch, that margin of error to the cap ceiling is a tight space to operate within. 

I would argue that Myers is as good as gone, and that given he only has 1m REAL money on his contract, he will be happily taken by a non-contending team at no cost. That 6m savings alone makes a huge difference.

I believe that our forward depth is one of the stronger points of this team as it sits. I would really rather not give up too much in the way of wingers - especially if it costs sweeteners to do so. I still believe in Brock, and with his father's death behind him and a newfound desire to stay in Vancouver, my bet is on him having a solid season - even if he might be slightly overpaid. I also think Garland has the potential to live up to his contract as well. The only forward of value I think we would be better off giving up is Beauvillier, as he had a solid time with us and out of the 3 is only only sell-high candidate. That would combine for just over 10m cap removed. Then add in the cap increase for next season, and the OP is right; we're really not THAT bad off.

[grandmaster]

Clear another 6M of Cap space.

 

Myers will be gone once his bonus is paid. We won’t be needing to offer much of a sweetener, if any.

 

 

[Angry Goose]

6 minutes ago, kloubek said:

I would argue that Myers is as good as gone, and that given he only has 1m REAL money on his contract, he will be happily taken by a non-contending team at no cost. That 6m savings alone makes a huge difference.
 

2 minutes ago, grandmaster said:

 

Myers will be gone once his bonus is paid. We won’t be needing to offer much of a sweetener, if any.

 

 

Some people argue that the Canucks should hang onto Myers and flip him at the TDL.   What is your take on that?

 

Im of the mind that soon to be UFAs should be dealt sooner rather than later (especially if they are not being re-signed).  

[grandmaster]

4 minutes ago, Angry Goose said:

Some people argue that the Canucks should hang onto Myers and flip him at the TDL.   What is your take on that?

 

Im of the mind that soon to be UFAs should be dealt sooner rather than later (especially if they are not being re-signed).  

Hell no! 
 

Myers will destroy our chances to make the playoffs. A minor league plug is more beneficial to the team rather than that “chaos giraffe”. He literally has the lowest hockey IQ on the team. 
 

Myers needs to go asap.
 

This, for me, is the number one move they have to make. I would love for OEL gone as well but that looks like mission impossible. 

[King Heffy]

7 minutes ago, Angry Goose said:

Some people argue that the Canucks should hang onto Myers and flip him at the TDL.   What is your take on that?

 

Im of the mind that soon to be UFAs should be dealt sooner rather than later (especially if they are not being re-signed).  

More opportunity to move cap out when injuries pile up and teams have space due to LTIR.   Myers at the deadline with half retained has a lot of positive value.

[Pears]

It’s certainly not ideal especially considering the fact we’re already over next seasons’ projected cap, but I do agree some people are greatly over exaggerating our situation. Once trading season opens up I can pretty much guarantee you we’ll start dumping cap where we can. 

[Phil_314]

We can easily dump Beauvillier or Garland or Boeser, Oliver Bjorkstrand style (he got a 3rd and 4th round pick in return) so yeah the issue isn't that they're stuck with us; it's that we'd be selling for pennies on the dollar.  If anything I'd hope for Beau to go for say a 2nd, and then Myers for a 4th or something.  Carolina's realizing they need scoring and Bedard will need a running mate or two, so for the wingers there's definitely a market, and hopefully Myers' WC play raises his value such that with some retention we'd find a taker.  Sell Beau for market value, give Brock and Garland another year to prove their worth, re-sign Bear after Myers is gone and we'd have room.  Then in the meantime hopefully Klimovich, McDonough, Hoglander and Podkolzin can all start taking next steps to prove they can stick as regulars, and we'll have a lot more breathing room when we can promote their ELCs in and the "bloated" contracts have been moved.

Edited May 26, 2023 by Phil_314

[grandmaster]

1 minute ago, King Heffy said:

More opportunity to move cap out when injuries pile up and teams have space due to LTIR.   Myers at the deadline with half retained has a lot of positive value.

I don’t know about other teams but in terms of ours, he is a negative value at league min. He is counterproductive and will lose us games just based on his regular mistakes. Do you really want that? Do you think we have a chance of making the playoffs with him in the lineup? 
 

The only way we can successfully trade him is if the other team isn’t fully aware of his play or need to make the Cap floor like Chicago, Arizona, etc