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Let's project/predict some team's cap hits once the Restricted Free Agents get accounted for...

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I wanted to look at the top 20 teams in terms of their current cap hit and see how much actual room they have once their restricted free agents get re-signed.  Feel free to object, contend, and argue about any assumptions made here...  there will be lots of assumptions!

 

Methodology: Assume that teams will keep all their RFAs and use the prediction made by AFP analytics for salaries, then fill out a 23 man roster using league minimum salaries. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y8djdJG5PBDpRBge1_g2w4llcwUjSYqKlMlccVN58Hk/htmlview

 

 

Montreal : 85 million with Carey Price's 10.5 mil in LTIR, so 9 million in LTIR space 

Tampa : 90 million with Seabrook's 7 mil in LTIR, so less then a million in LTIR 

Calgary: 85.5 million, so 2 million over the limit with nobody on LTIR 

Vegas: 82 million plus change depending on what you think Brett Howden will get, assuming that Lehner is back playing next year

Islanders: 82 million, Mayfield walks 

Bruins: 88 million without Bergeron, Krejci, Orlov, Bertuzzi 

Edmonton: 86.5 million assuming that they only do a bridge with Bouchard 

Columbus: 78 million 

Philly: 85.5 million with Ryan Ellis's 6.25 mil in LTIR, so 4.25 mil in LTIR space 

Washington: 82.5 million 

LA Kings: 83.5 million 

Dallas: 81.5 million 

St Louis: 80.5 million 

Minny: 82.5 million 

Toronto: 81 million 

Florida: 79 million 

NY Rangers: 84 million assuming K'Andre Miller only signs a bridge deal 

Colorado: 82 million assuming they only bridge Bowen Byram, so 1 million in cap space or 8 million in LTIR space if Landeskog is gone for the year 

Winnipeg: 83 million 

San Jose: 75 million 

 

To recap: Boston, Edmonton, Calgary, and NY Rangers will have to shed some salary to be cap compliant. 

Montreal, Tampa, and Philly will have LTIR space left over. 

Vegas, Islanders, Washington, LA Kings, Minny, Colorado, and Winnipeg will all be within a million or two of the cap ceiling.  

 

Anyways, just thought it would be interesting to look at a more realistic cap outlook as opposed to what you see when you open up capfriendly's page. 

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9 hours ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

With the pitiful state of the upcoming UFA market, expect major changes to be made at the draft.  Re-visit this question in a week.

Yeah that's four contenders that have to make moves to be cap compliant, let alone improve, and another 7 teams that don't have room for significant improvements.  

 

Boston, Edmonton, Calgary, Rangers, Islanders, and Colorado will be the most desperate to unload some contracts IMO. 

 

 

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