TheSecretIsMe
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Posts posted by TheSecretIsMe
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On 4/6/2017 at 0:20 PM, taxi said:
Why shouldn't we come down harder on foreigners? Many are clearly evading the intent of the restrictions already in place. The answer is more restrictions until people stop slipping by the system.
What ought to be isn't what is though.
Our government is in bed with the real estate industry, you have people like Christy Clark who have a vested interest in the housing market continuing to remain afloat and growing. There was an article released recently that stated that the Liberal gov't provided a near 0% interest loan to a developer building majority luxury condos..the real messed up part was that they took the money out of the social housing budget. Also, they provided this same developer for the same project with a $3,000,000 grant..best part was that the this same developer donated $400,000 to the liberal. Conflict of interest anyone?
Not to mention, the federal government is no better. They don't actually give a crap about the people, the focus is moreso on making $$. You have people like Christy being advised by people who are invested in the real estate industry, why would they risk losing their money by doing the right thing? I don't think it has ever worked out that way, if that was the case we would have renewable energy taking over oil many years ago, but no, things only change when the $$ makes sense.
Good for David Eby trying to stimulate important and appropriate discussion.
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On 4/3/2017 at 6:53 PM, Harvey Spector said:
From what I've heard the De Cotiis family has been infighting for years. It's all about the money. When your family is worth billions it always comes back to the money. Not sure if the Hells Angels are actually involved but I wouldn't be shocked if they were.
In terms of those findings by TI I would agree that on the high end of real estate, properties being sold on the Westside and other areas, most of those deals are bought by foreigners, Asians primarily, and they do it through shell companies and other means to get around who the actual buyer or benefactor is. The money is transferred from China to Chinese law firms in Vancouver where these lawyers are not subjected to FINTRAC rules in actually disclosing how much money has arrived and who the buyer is. These trust accounts cannot be audited as lawyers have attorney client privilege that supercedes any money laundering laws currently in place.
A Chinese foreigner could literally transfer millions into their Vancouver lawyer's trust account and then turn around and use the money to buy a multi million dollar property in Vancouver. And they could put the property in the name of a beneficiary who resides in Vancouver, i.e. their son or daughter who is a student at UBC, or they could register it in a numbered or shell company and not disclose who the benefactor is.
CRA could change the rules and audit these deals more frequently, but the provincial and federal governments make billions of dollars a year in profits from the real estate industry, not to mention the financial institutions, so I don't see how they will come down any harder on these foreigners than what they are doing now. Again it is all about the money.
I would think that they wouldn't want to come down on foreigners any harder than they already are, but there's also the notion that Canada is becoming a hub for this kind of thing which isn't a good look. Also, the CRA has been getting flack over the last 2 years about their lax behavior with foreigners. In my mind, they would only react if there was enough negative political rhetoric around the issue - Panama Papers, articles, TIC.
Our government is definitely more reactive than proactive. -
1 hour ago, Harvey Spector said:
Onni was founded by Innocenzo (Inno) De Cotiis. He named it Onni by spelling his name backwards. His brother Amalio founded Amacon. He named it by combining the names of Amalio and his wife Concetta. Inno is retired and Amalio has passed away so now the kids run both companies. Not sure if Inno had any contacts with any Italians in the Hells Angels, but the De Cotiis families are billionaires just like the Aquilini family and the Bosa families.
I edited my post, I misread the article as it states they were threatened by the Hells Angels. Still interesting though, I wonder if the drama is over or if there was some kind of settlement behind the scenes. Perhaps its on-going..? Nonetheless, interesting stuff.
Also, how do you feel about Transparency International Canada's findings? -
So apparently the Onni Group (well known developers) were threatened by the Hells Angels..
link: http://gangstersoutt.blogspot.ca/2016/06/hells-angel-damiano-dipopolo-and-de.html
Also, looks like they've been in some trouble lately:
http://www.cknw.com/2017/03/30/developer-skirting-short-term-rental-rules-a-repeat-offender-city-of-vancouver/
Meanwhile...thumb.jpg.0eb55cc4f3c3ead5058537482712dd29.jpg)
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The Federal Reserve raised rates again today, expecting Canadian banks to increase fixed term mortgage rates again as well.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/mar/15/federal-reserve-interest-rates-uk-unemployment-business-live-
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29 minutes ago, Alflives said:
All true, but how much have prices come down? Even a 5% decline in sale prices is not that much when considering the value started with, right?
The real estate board follows a benchmark price when releasing stats, which, considered by many, is not a very accurate depiction of current prices in the market. Average selling price is generally the more common measure as it doesn't include unnecessary information in its calculation.
According to the video below, average prices have fallen 17.5% from the peak.
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1 hour ago, mdehaan said:
How can Cdn mortgage rates not be tied to the BoC rate?
If the BoC changes the rate, right away that changes the spread for lenders. If they want to maintain the spread they change the rates based on the move the BoC made.
The concept here is not that they aren't tied to BoC rates, they are, to a certain extent; however, US treasury yields play a vital role in the process as well. If you look at current fixed term rates you'll notice they have gone up from previous years. The graph I've attached also shows the uptick in fixed term mortgages, despite BoC consistently lowering rates.
'Harvey Spector' has found graphs of what we were touching on just above my post.
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1 hour ago, taxi said:
By lower end, I was referring more to attached homes and condos. Detached homes, due to the fact you actually get a lot with a backyard, have taken on a life of their own. The two markets have become totally detached. In most places, you buy a townhouse/condo as an entry level home. You then use that equity to move up into a detached home eventually. In Vancouver, we saw the prices of detached homes skyrocket. The other markets rose, but not at the pace of detached homes. So the detached homes are, IMO, most vulnerable to a correction. Especially in places like Surrey/Abbotsford, where there's no real reason for land to be super-valuable as it's not all that scarce.
Agreed, there's always a ton of moving pieces and I don't think anyone can predict anything outside of a 1-3 month window with any level of certainty. But, if we look at the direction interest rates are trending, it is definitely upwards. BoC has stated they will not raise rates until at least 2018, but that could potentially change if our dollar takes an aggressive punch. As mentioned before, our fixed term mortgages are not strictly tied to the BoC rates anyhow, so only the variable rate would remain under considerable control of our economy until 2018. Now couple this with free-falling sales in the detached sector..
So, from an objective point of view, that would beg the question of how sustainable current prices are. Many realtors argue that condo sales have not slid as significantly because they are the only things locals can afford. Let's say there is a substantial decrease in detached home values of 30-40% correction, effectively making detached homes more aligned with local incomes, what kind of impact would this have on the condo market?
(some argue it's already begun as some homes are selling 10-20% below asking, which would be unheard of 6 months ago -- notably in South Surrey, Tri-cities, and West-side/East-side Van)
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19 hours ago, riffraff said:
With those numbers, how is that even possible lol.
only a fool would enter into that scenario.
Haha, you would think that to be the case but it's evident that hysteria runs rampant.
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2 hours ago, mdehaan said:
I get what you're saying, but I don't think it is that cut and dry.
The other factor in valuing the CAD is the oil price. All things being equal, if the price of oil were to move to $60+, I think the CAD would strengthen as well.
Also, lenders are going to factor in over concentration to one asset class over another, so that can play a role as well.
Can you overlay the US 10 year, with average fixed term Cdn mortgage rates on a long term chart?
You're absolutely correct, my example wasn't intended to cover all macro/micro economic factors at play just to give a high level understanding of the correlation.
As for the graph, I tried doing a quick search and couldn't find one, however it's easy to find articles on how and why the 10-year treasury yields guide Canadian mortgage rates. -
50 minutes ago, mdehaan said:
How do you figure that?
Because fixed-term mortgage rates in Canada move in tandem with US 10-year treasury yields. So, as the US has begun to raise their interest rates our fixed term mortgage rates are also on the rise. You can look this up in greater detail if you're interested. I think the best example I can provide you is how a interest rate rise in the US (assuming we lower ours or keep it the same) generally has the economic impact of reducing the value of our currency. Why? Because banks/investors tend to sell off their $C for $US as it earns more return, thus reducing the demand of $C and putting downward pressure on prices. If we look at the US bond market and our fixed-term mortgage market we observe similar patterns playing out as lenders will offer higher fixed term mortgage rates. Why? Essentially they can offer you money for 5-10 years at 2.3% or they could purchase US treasury bonds with a higher yield.
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On 2/3/2017 at 0:32 PM, taxi said:
Building largely does increase inventory. The trend in Vancouver is to take larger lots and split them into multiple housing units. This is happening on large scales all over Vancouver. Townhouses, coach hoises etc...
I do agree that condos will never crash to bargain prices though. People want to live in Vancouver. That's a fact. As long as interest rates stay low, anyone with a minimum downpayment will want to purchase a condo. In that $600k or less range, you will always have lots of demand and people will snap those up. The higher end condos will fall in price as foreign investment leaves the market though. But I would agree with you about the bottom end of the market. It might correct but will not crash.
My point was that seeing land values decrease won't lead to a slow down in the construction industry. Like I said before people will always want to live in Vancouver.
Interest rates are already on the rise, specifically fixed-term mortgage rates as they are tied to global rates and not the BoC rates. Not only this, but with the new rules imposed by the CMHC locals can expect higher rates on renewals as well, as lenders take on more risk.
The one issue I see with our lower end of the market is that its really not 'low end'. Detached homes in Surrey (7000 sqft lot 2500sqft home) still go for 750K-950K, which I would argue is the lower end of our market. Take into account average income levels (75K/household) and the new rate qualifications, I could see a substantial decrease as even those who want to purchase don't get approved for a mortgage.
I think the other thing to look into is the level of speculation. How many people jumped into the market to make a quick buck, and now are struggling to break-even?
Also, in terms of condos, I could see a decline as detached homes fall in value and those looking to purchase condos substitute for land + home. -
CMHC to issue first ‘red’ warning for Canada’s housing market
VANCOUVER — The Globe and Mail
Published Monday, Oct. 17, 2016 4:57AM EDT
Last updated Monday, Oct. 17, 2016 1:21PM EDT
“House prices across Canada remain higher than levels consistent with personal disposable income, population growth and other fundamental factors,” CMHC said in July. It added that the risk of problematic conditions would increase “if the acceleration in prices intensifies in Ontario and British Columbia so as to outweigh challenges in the oil-dependent provinces.” -
6 minutes ago, Realtor Rod said:
Still lots selling above list price, but they are starting to adjust, like they do this time of year, every year.
Yeah, you're right they do generally adjust. However, the one thing that's different compared to other years is that prices rose 30-40% over 6-10months.
Which was driven by foreign investors, which have disappeared from the market. So that 30-40% over-valued home is going to correct significantly. Lets not forget that that debt to income ratios have risen above 165% this year as well. Many of these people have over-leveraged in the market (over-bid as well) assuming they could quickly sell their homes like everyone was. The 15% tax, luxury tax speculation, and changes in mortgage qualification has taken a lot of people out of the market. Nobody wants to buy anything because they don't know what to expect; such as my family. So what's happening now is that people are putting their homes on the market to get out of debt and others are building new homes which they overpaid for the property in hopes of selling and there's not enough buyers.
Say what you want, this is looking really ugly especially 6 months from now. -
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Seen loads of price reductions over the last two months. The trend will continue for the next few months at the least.
Mind you, my family is heavily involved in development and lending all across BC [private mortgage fund founders/managers ($75mm-$100mm) and real estate developers]. Me, personally, I'm still in school but I constantly hear the chatter at all of our family functions. They're expecting a decline of 15%-25% and worst case scenario 30%-40% with a rebound come spring. They've even gone on to say that they don't expect a climb in home prices the same as the last 2 years ever gain with the new regulation. -
http://www.whl.ca/video/45305
Highlights from the game and Virtanen's goal. -
Didn't see the goal but I was driving and listening to the radio and the commentators were seriously pumping his tires, talking about how he was just flying out there. I'm guess he's having an awesome game.
Commentator: " I really believe Vancouver has something in this player." (something along those lines)
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He'll be a good player. He's big, fast, and can shoot the puck very well and seeing where the game is headed I think he fits right in.
Canucks will have a bright future ahead with the picks they're making and if all goes well with our drafting next season and the following I believe many of the posters here will eat their words.
Canucks fans have always been bandwagoners...reminds of the Miami Heat fanbase.
Believe in Blue Baby!
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What the Canucks really need is a strong two-way center, with size and experience, and making a reasonable salary, say like maybe $5mil a year. But where do you find such a player???
hmmmm...lol
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AV was definitely a part of the problem in Van, but he wasn't 'the' problem. Truthfully, I put more blame on the players.
They couldn't close when they really needed to and that was the reason they lost. Also, as mentioned above, throwing away games and top guys not performing is really the reason we lost.
Nonetheless, as I've read so many times before, each and every coach has an expiry date. With the Canucks, it was either move players or move the coach. Evidently, they chose to move the coach because they still believed in the core and its potential.
It takes the whole organization to win a cup, from top to bottom, not just the coach or just the players. Maybe the biggest failure was on managements part for not realizing when to make changes and also not retrieving the correct amount of assets to make a real push (injuries and all).
Regardless, the onus can't be placed on any one individual, after all, it is a team sport.
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And unfortunately we`re not getting any closer by trading Kesler.
He`s the type of player that the Kings have built their team around.
Yup, too bad the Nucks didn't think of doing that 4-5 years ago.
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If the Rangers lose tonight it'll probably haunt every player on that roster for the rest of their lives.
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What you have said has a lot of truth to it. Although, this is the case I wish you would have taken a little less emotional approach to your posting, because it may have been more effective in getting your point across. Your post is over aggressive and it kind of feels like your attacking us instead of informing, and is probably why (after reading the previous pages) members have dismissed the message and are bashing you. If your intent was to educate the members then I am sorry but the way you chose to do so is asking for trouble. Not to mention, the overly assertive title.
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Bo Horvat comments regarding Trade
in Canucks Talk
Posted
You are such a homer...the team has been a huge disappointment since 2012.
The ownership is a major issue. Remember back around 2010 - 2012 when they were going to hire the mental coach out Europe (I think he worked for a major soccer club at the time) and then when he sold his home, and picked up everything to move the Aquilini's literally bailed on the deal. I believe it went to court too.
There's also been other seriously unethical cases made against them. There's been two constants for the last decade, one is the team has been no good, the other is that the Aquilini's are unethical, almost criminal owners with a track record to match.