uselessstats

Flawed analogy. There's no equivalent to training camp in med school, which is where NHL teams base a lot of their decisions for the upcoming season. Remember Grabner? Strong seasons in the AHL but weak training camps each year doomed him to trade/waivers. Plus wow, could you have picked a longer, more convoluted way to explain something on a hockey board? Unless we all went to med school that's about as helpful as explaining Jake's odds by comparing it to the uncertainty principal in quantum mechanics...

I'm not sure why you think I'm misunderstanding or misrepresenting your post. It was quite straight forward and I am simply disagreeing with it. 1. It is not a mistake to think Virtanen's goal scoring was "normal". You have no basis for making that statement other than to say it hasn't been as high this year. This year could as easily be "not normal" as last year. 2. You cannot say he was "likely" riding an unsustainable shooting percentage as you do not know a. What his shooting % was, or b. What normative shooting %'s are in the WHL. This there is no basis to say "likely" which indicates a known probability. You cannot bring probability distributions into this without knowing the two things above. Also, significant year-to-year progression is normal in CHL so looking at his 16 yo season is absolutely pointless. His goal numbers in 2013-14 should be considerably higher than in 2012-13, that is how CHL stats typically progress from 16 to 17. And while I am new here, I've been on another board for years and have only recently started posting here for a wider variety of views and opinions. Reading comprehension is not a problem for me. If you feel I have misrepresented your post, by all means point out the offense and what you meant to say. But as far as I can see you are simply making assumptions and saying they are "likely" (i.e. Probable), which is simply incorrect.

Cool that you like him, I'm a fan too. However just because you qualify your statement with 'likely' doesn't change the fact that it was attempting to speak as a fact. Ultimately you are making several assumptions here: the number of shots he could have taken from the 2nd line (despite being a shoot-first player), and the sustainable rate of shooting in junior (it could easily be higher than in the NHL given that junior goalies, defenses, and defensive schemes are not as advanced). Ultimately just a bad set of assumptions without the data (which as you have stated is unavailable). I see no reason to think his 45 goals in 71 games was based on luck or an unsustainable shooting %. Other players had a higher GPG than Jake so it's not like his production was so high that it was 'likely' unsustainable. He's simply mired in a slump recently, no need to dissect his draft season to make sense of it.

Ok, sounded more concrete than speculation when you said his goal production last year was lucky and not his normal pace. I'd generally refrain from making such statements unless I've either watched the player play those games or have access to his shot data. For all we know that is his normal pace and this is the down year. Considering last year he played 71 games that is a long time to be "lucky". More likely he's been riding a cold streak these past 7 games (1 goal) than that he had a 71 game "lucky streak" last year.

How do you know either his sh% or shot totals from last year? Haven't found a site yet that gives consistent stats for either.

That's almost Horvat-like

I believe this is a part of the reason his scoring is below where some people expect it *should* be. While he has recently been playing on the top line with Rankin and Tambellini, for much of the season he was shuffled around the line up with fairly low minutes. CHL.stats.com estimates his TOI around 15 mins, well below Tambellini (22 mins) and Rankin (21 mins). Yet despite this Jake is just behind them in PPG (1.15 vs 1.2 and 1.17) and has by far the highest PPG/60 (4.37). Factor in the impact of missing a summer of proper training, development camps, training camp (NHL and WHL), and the preseason and first dozen games of the season ... I think Jake is doing just fine. I do hope (and expect) a strong second half as his minutes stabilize and he regains his full form. Hopefully something around .75 goals per game while hopefully keeping up his improved assist totals.

Behind closed doors does not mean secretly or without oversight. I'll try to find the link but I read somewhere that every team in the lottery has a representative (not the GM who attends the televised drawing) who views the lottery process to ensure it complies with due process. Something like accountants or legal advisors IIRC. Edit: Found one link anyway. For the 2005 draft but I expect this is similar to how it is done every year: http://www.cbc.ca/m/sports/hockey/penguins-win-nhl-lottery-1.559504

Not sure anyone knows and I don't follow the Hitmen much outside of my interest in Jake, but my guess would be that Jake produces relatively well regardless of his linemates due to his strong one-on-one skills so it may have made sense to use Jake to create a strong 2nd line while loading up the first line with Brassart and Chase. Certainly there have been some puzzling moves by the Hitmen coaching staff this year and last and even ardent Hitmen fans have had their criticisms of the coaching and systems they've used. The thing we fans have to remember is that the Hitmen prioritize winning games over developing our favourite prospect, so we may see these moves as 'stupid' but it may just be different priorities for the Calgary coach.

Ya, I'd say that's fair

No, Jake rarely played with Chase and played sporadically with Brassart, including some PP. Played with Helgeson as much as anyone last year but like this year had a rotating door of linemates.

The inclusion of the hypothetical makes all the difference IMO. With it I agree 100%. Without it it seems overly negative and dramatic. But certainly I agree that Jake is a huge part of our future and certainly hope that it is a minor issue at most.

How did / do you know it's a "major" injury? How did / do you know how much it will impact his development? Simple answer is you don't. Hence people took you to task for wild, highly negative speculation. Unless you are on the Hitmen's medical staff or are accomplished at diagnosing the severity of injuries on TV, I'd say most of the criticism towards your post was warranted (except when it veered towards you "wanting" him to be hurt, didn't agree with that).

Posts like this are "common sense"?

Ya but I think the plan was to let McD shirk his centre-related defensive duties and go balls-to-the-wall on offense. Based on how deliberately Jake was playing high in the zone - almost a 3rd D man - it seems likely this was a coaching tactic. I mean, I've never seen him play that high or completely stay out of the play before. And while it didn't make for exciting hockey for us Jake-watchers, it did work on the Lazar goal.

I am struggling to comprehend this last post, I'll give you that. Punctuation and spelling are not your friends eh?

He obviously was responding to the poster who said a 6 game tourny won't determine who the better player is, playing in the NHL will. Do you struggle this much with reading comprehension in your everyday life or do you save it just for these threads so you can jump in with what you think is a really good dig at someone?

Ya they are fantastic, so much better than just pure highlights in giving an accurate view of the player's total game. Very much appreciate the time and effort it obviously takes!

I post a fair bit on HF Boards but have followed this thread for a few months cause I enjoy the variety of opinions and insights many of you guys have. I finally had to sign up cause this post is spot on re: the environment that Jake is playing in right now. Seems he is forced to do too much himself and that isn't the best way for him to be developing at this point, considering he had much the same situation on the 2nd line last year. I would love to see him moved to a team like Kelowna before the TDL as I think he could thrive in an environment and with players like that. Just my meagre two cents anyway.