BaerBoBoeser
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Posts posted by BaerBoBoeser
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3 hours ago, terrible.dee said:
I Don't remember seeing any prescribed playing weight for him
Very encouraging to see he"s interested enough to SAY the right things, I still maintain that if he's not shaping up to be a top 6 guy then he will be playing elsewhere, this summer is critical
He definitely didn't need to gain weight last year but the 'talk' was the Canucks training staff was working with him in the summer - that doesn't jive with the fact he showed up to camp out of shape.
Now out of shape could mean many things and none of us know it could mean
1. Laugh it up pudgeball
2. Put on alot of weight that even if muscle, on his frame makes it harder to get around the ice - expend more energy so he can't play a proper shift all out / length wise
3. Trained wrong and his aerobic shape wasn't up to snuff (could be caused by 1 or 2 )
Rumors say he was partying alot and living a celebrity life, I think we all know there is a hint of truth to that, and given that he is at home, making lots of money and 19 years old, like any kid he just acted like a kid - and likely why the Nucks wanted him in utica - to grow up (which we all also know needed to happen)
Regardless of whether he came to camp out of shape from partying/eating and not working out, or not working out right, he was out of shape
He came in at 225-230 ish - that is close to Bertuzzi weight and in this NHL , you need speed and quickness (which he has). They said green was skating him alot in utica too so its clearly a conditioning / aerobic issue
My hope is he comes into camp slimmed down to about 210 lbs, even 205. If he comes in with that weight and has worked hard aerobically - he will turn some heads with those wheels
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As a comparison as there are many similarities in their path's to the NHL and previous success in US College and the WJC
Cory Schnieder who we all loved first season in the AHL36 gp
21 W (3 SO)
12 L2
2 T (yes they had ties back then!)
2.28 GAA
0.916 sv %
Thatcher Demko thus far
33 GP (2 SO)
16 W
11 L
1 SOL
2.57 GAA
0.909 sv%
If Thatcher pushes us into the playoffs his numbers will look very close to one hell of a goalie in his first year, and Thatcher had a tough patch in there mid year I believe.
I always look at save % and the quality of the team. Those matter most to me when evaluating goalies. GAA is more a team stat and even save % to a certain degree but clearly goalies have better control there. However, if you're on a weaker team, other teams will get more and better looks leading to more goals.
Regardless, he seems to be having a solid start to his pro career. Let's hope they make the post season to get some more experience, then see him take the next step next year!
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5 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:
I think adding strength will be key. And doing so without losing his quickness/agility and compromising his skating and skill. It's challenging. And everybody's body is different. Some guys can pack on muscle with little more effort than some diet adjustment and hardly even upping their training. Other guys can work extremely hard with their training and diet and will stay super lean no matter how much they want to bulk up (of course I'm sticking with legal/ethical options here).
And then there's just the boy/man stuff and how we're all working on different schedules in life.
I can definitely relate to the "late bloomer" stuff.
I was the smallest kid among 2500 students when I started high school. Looked 3-4 years younger than I actually was. By the time I graduated, I was about normal height but super skinny. Actually kept growing taller into my twenties. And didn't really "man out" my muscle mass until mid-to-late twenties. The benefit is now that I'm an "old man," people still tend to think I'm 10 years younger than I really am. Guess my clock runs slower than most people. And I sure can appreciate that now that I'm older. But it definitely sucked to be a smooth faced little shrimp when my buddies were growing full beards and standing about a head taller than me.
But this perspective always makes me feel like we should never count out players as "too small" or "too weak" who are slight in frame, or even just tiny, when they're teenagers. Some of them will keep adding height for a few post-draft years and won't really be able to build their "man's strength" and add significant mass until they stop growing.
Of course most people fall within fairly narrow norms and drafting/scouting/projecting is about playing percentages and making good bets. And betting on a guy having my (or your) kind of growth/development timeline isn't generally going to pay out often. But it does happen.
Bringing it all back to Jašek again, I think his boyish looks suggest he's maybe a little slower to physically mature than some. And so I wouldn't be surprised if he's able to add quite a bit of muscle into his twenties if he puts in the work. He's 6'1" and around 170 lbs (at age 19). Maybe he stays lean and tops out at 185ish but honestly, 195-200 (or even more) wouldn't be unheard of, especially if he's still growing.
Agree , that's why patience is always the key physically with players - skill you can't teach, but size can come
One of the big things scouts do is always meet parents, and its not for them to only know if the kid comes from a good home, they want to see how his parent are 'built' - how big a man the father is etc....seriously - and it makes sense - not just with horses!
Granlund is at best 185 (I'd be surprised if that heavy) so if he's in the 180's but can play, I don't think it will be an issue - but the speed and quickness will be key for him then and as with all physically smaller players, learning how to play within that and still be effective
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18 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:
@Jägermeister: lots of good points and much that I agree with. ^^^
I try to throw a little water on things from time to time in here as well.
But mostly I've just been trying to keep up with the stats, and adding a little colour commentary when Jašek does something of note (like a 5 point night in U20 or tallying the most PIM in WSM Liga playoffs).
The problem with Jašek is he's extremely tough to project. His Extraliga numbers are not good. His WSM Liga numbers are quite good. And his ELJ (U20) numbers are off the charts. What does that all mean?
Generally speaking, a guy with Jašek's lower level numbers would produce better Extraliga numbers. When you look at other players with similar stats at lower levels, they tend to post at least fairly respectable Extraliga numbers as well. Some of this comes down to the team Jašek is on, as Trinec appears to not favour giving quality opportunities to their U20s (at least over the past decade or so).
I also think Jašek's slight frame comes into effect. He has peers that have similar or lesser WSM Liga numbers who manage to produce much better than he does in Extraliga. Many of them seem to have more of a "man's body" than Jašek. Do they get better opportunities? Hard to say. But Jašek's inability to earn quality minutes or post numbers at that level is a concern.
That said, when you look at league equivalencies, Jasek's WSM Liga production this season works out to around 20-25 points in the NHL (over an 82 game season) And depending on whose calculations you use, WSM Liga has an NHLe range that's actually similar to Allsvenskan. So Jasek being nearly a point per game at that level gives some reason for optimism (since some NHLe calcs would value his production similar to Dahlén's this season, although others would say Dahlén's points are worth around 150% of Jašek's)
It's pretty tough to predict was he's going to become. I doubt there are any current NHL players that would come up as close statistical matches (in cohort modelling) to Jašek today. I can't think of any player that's taken this kind of route to the NHL. That doesn't mean it can't happen, just not much to work with in terms of comparables.
I strongly agree that the CHL would have been the ideal route for Jašek after he was drafted. But unfortunately, Trinec consistently blocked this option.
So we wait for the Czech contract to run out and then hopefully an ELC with Vancouver follows. And at long last, we'll get a chance to see this kid play some hockey that gives us something tangible to base our predictions on. Until then, who knows.
But at least the kid is improving (based on his WSM Liga numbers) and rounding out his game (based on what we saw at the WJC).
He's still very much a project though. He'll definitely need to get stronger, at least based on the vitals we see listed for him. And NA pro is a serious adjustment (which time in the CHL could have mitigated but that ship already sailed). I think he remains a boom/bust prospect and a little bit of an enigma.
I'm very interested to see what we get when he finally comes over. But I'm not expecting much. I won't be surprised if he washes out. But then again, I won't necessarily be surprised if he eventually cracks the NHL and becomes a pretty decent player.
Very interesting post thanks for the intelligent insight!
Not a bad thing for a kid that small to be kind of shielded until his body starts catching up. Some kids just take longer to 'man strength' out, regardless of how hard they work in the gym.
I was 160 lbs in grade 12 and 5'11 - played football and hockey competitively till 24 and topped out at 6'1 185 at 24. I couldn't add muscle to save my life
By the time I hit 25/26 I was 6'1 200 and strong as hell, just a late bloomer and cried at night wishing that I had that man strength 4 years earlier! it was such a difference and probably would have got me somewhere professional in either sport!
I think 2 years in the AHL gaining weight, learning the north american pro game an allowing his body to catch up, we'll be able to know what we have.
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On 3/1/2017 at 5:27 AM, Quantum said:
Granlund has quietly been putting together a very solid season... especially for a guy who has bounced around the lineup a lot this year. I was bummed that we dealt Shinkaruk last year but now? Not so much. There's around 20 games left in this season and it's pretty likely that Granlund will cross the 20 goal mark this year (barring injury) which is pretty insane for a guy that a lot of people dismissed early on. Definitely a guy worthy of saving in the expansion and definitely a guy who'll be a fixture in the Canucks lineup for the next several years.
Same and oddly few have given Benning and even Willie kudos for this. Benning spotted it, Willie has brought the talent out. I am actually very surprised by Granlund and I'm an old timer who's watched hockey for 40 years, played the game competitively so think I have a fairly educated and decent perspective on talent. I just didn't see what we had in him but now? Wow....this kid is remining me of a smaller hansen with better hands. He's on pace for 25 goals in what is effectively a rookie season (that is amazing). He's probably never going to be a 35-40 goal guy but hell if he keeps up this trajectory who knows.
I mentioned in another post for all the heat Willie takes he has done an AMAZING JOB developing our young core, something many people ignore when they bark about him. Oddly, as much as we've been talking 'playoffs' and haven't got there people ignore the real results that Willie has achieved and those are really our more important ones long term (development)
Willie seems to great at developing not so great at systems and strategy. Funny thing is, that's kind of what we've needed!
Baer, Bo, Try, Stecher, Hutton, Granlund, Sbisa (although he will end up in vegas) have all taken big strides under willie - something people should really learn to appreciate IMHO
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2 hours ago, Adarsh Sant said:
True, it is very hard to be patient especially with the guys drafted after him
. But I agree, he still has potential and he could help bolster our third line when we are good again. Hopefully his playing style when he gets to the NHL is like Hansen, tough but can make plays in both ends of the ice.
Imagine if he had the drive and work ethic like Horvat.....it would be insane.
well, he's very young and he got a wakeup call and while he's clearly immature (and who isn't at 20 yrs old, its just we've become accustomed to young NHLers acting very mature at a young age for some reason) so that can change.
The upside here is, as immature as jake is:
A. Its normal for most people his age! LOL
B. He's not an 'idiot' - from what we've seen he's a young kid being a kid bc he's got some cash now and buddies around (none of us would be any different, bo is actually an exception - I think being in Vancouver hurt him - too close to his bros who pumped his tires), so if he's not an 'idiot' he will mature and utica is good, away from all the nonsense and 'early celebrity'.
C. He's got talent and now knows he's got to earn it, nothing is going to be given to him, especially with the moves JB has made (bringing in 2 young offensive wingers plus Boeser about to come in, and maybe Gaudette). Plus you have Baer and Granny pretty much cementing 2 of 4 top 6 spots. If he looks around, he'll notice there's no spot 'waiting' for him anymore - if that doesn't light a fire under him nothing will
As I said in another thread lets see how he comes into camp next year and this is my view on how we need to evaluate him
1. Come into camp in great shape
2. Play your ass off and make it hard for the Nucks to send him back (but they should even as a test of his resiliency, to make him feel like he's close but can't quit or sulk)
3. Back to Utica and start being the 'driver of offense' and showing he can dominate physically and play 200ft
4. Be called up a few times and when called up, don't complain about what line you're on, with the limited minutes still show you want to be here by making yourself noticed
5. Following season should be starting to see him as the first call from utica even if he doesn't stick out of camp.
He's got 2 years in my view before we start talking about bust or anything of the sort. The key here is improvement in all facets of his game, fitness, drive, effort, professionalism on and off the ice, positioning, scoring etc - lots to work on.
When people say "powerforwards take more time' so far, this is an excuse for Jake to gloss over a lack of commitment. Powerforwards take time to put it all together at the NHL level but the best ones still showed progression. Jake won't wake up one day and voila its all working, we need to see progression and to date that hasn't been there. Let's hope over the next 2 years we start seeing that!
I think we will, he's a decent kid, just the celebrity got a bit too much into his head early and the Nucks smartly recognized it. Now its up to him!
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Don't people ever learn?
Never tell Alex Burrows
he can't play or he can't do something
if you do
he feeds you crow
atta boy burr - go Sens go!
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. But I agree, he still has potential and he could help bolster our third line when we are good again. Hopefully his playing style when he gets to the NHL is like Hansen, tough but can make plays in both ends of the ice.
Jake Virtanen | #18 | RW
in Alumni
Posted
Good post - interesting stats on the 1a and very positive
As you said goal scoring is a concern and while you say his low shootiing % is not sustainable (as usually that low is not for a talented forward, and as such it should eventually revert to the mean - ie move up over time), one concern would be (and I doubt there is a stat on it) where is he shooting from
If he's shooting alot from distance, the outside it would make sense that he's not scoring and his percentage is low - that works in Junior where his shot could over power goalies - AHL no way
So, in my view I wish we knew 'where the majority of his shots are coming from'. If below the hash marks between the dots in high danger areas and the 'dirty areas below the circles (where Burr made a living) , ok it will eventually start going in. If outside the circles, not in danger areas, then he needs to start working harder to get to the net.