Frankie Sinatra
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Posts posted by Frankie Sinatra
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23 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:
I'm good, thank you. Hope you are well.
I want to sell next summer DT. I think I've got a good situation. 710 sqft, one bedroom +den, very solid cement building with great strata and contingency fund.
The only draw back is that it's 70% owner occupied...makes for a great environment but reduces the appeal to investors. So the price tags are a bit lower even though its a beauty of a building.
Recently a unit sold for $635... similar to mine but not as nice, and facing the alley.
I'm hoping for $710 ( $1000 per sqft) next year...I think I might be sitting in that sweet spot for those who refuse to head towards the $1MIL mark for an apt. I'll cross my fingers,
So the last sale was at $894sf. One bedroom and dens are selling over $1,000sf in most of the buildings downtown, even in the West End those older buildings are getting over $1,000sf. It might be a challenge to get $1,000sf if you wait until next year. Although the lower price range will have more buyers, I don't think you will actually see prices increase in downtown next year, even on the lower end. I have a client who wanted to get over $900k for his place downtown, and the last sale was $850k in his building, so I told him he's not getting $900k. So he's just gonna rent it out again and hold off for awhile as he cash flows.
I would follow the market closely and see where prices are at in the fall. The market is unsettled at the moment so it's anyone's guess what will actually happen. Hold tight for now.
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40 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:
I heard on the tv last week that even though sales are down , condo prices are still up by 11%.
Welcome back, do you think there is any chance at all that DT condo's will dip in the next year? ....asking for a friend
Hey my friend, how are you? Condos in downtown aren't moving like they used to. I would say they have hit their peak, especially the ones over $1 million. There is alot more inventory out there than their used to be. I see a dip in prices downtown in the short term. Long term it depends on these interest rates and mortgage rules, as it is really hard to get a mortgage from a conventional lender these days. Lots of buyers are going the B lender route, or even private lenders. Credit Unions don't fall under the federal regulation for the stress tests but I believe Vancity is following the new rules. I don't believe Coast Capital are.
Could be a good time to cash out on a downtown condo depending on your situation. If it's just a rental and you are cash flowing, then you can always sit tight until things turn around. If you are living downtown and want to move it might make sense to pull the plug and cash out.
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25 minutes ago, taxi said:
By December 4, 2017, sales were already down across the country. Q1 profits for the banks have been great too:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cibc-first-quarter-earnings-dividend-1.4546539
https://www.fool.ca/2018/03/05/which-of-the-big-5-banks-performed-best-in-q1/
Strong interest rates are one of the driving forces of the banks' profits.
That CBC article is from February and shows CIBC's Q1 earnings which are from Nov-Jan. It says right in the article that CIBC boosted its earnings and offset it's slower mortgage portfolio by aquiring a US bank, which makes perfect sense since the US economy is booming.
The second article again shows how the 5 big banks have beneifted from their US operations, noting also that BMO had a write down of $425 million because of the new US tax reform. You really have to dig deep and look at the financials closely to see the whole picture. The picture to me is the banks in the first quarter made money from other operations that offset their slower mortgage portfolio. That isn't going to last forever. At some point a 30-50% decrease in mortgage growth is going to hit the banks hard. Like I said let's see the numbers at year's end.
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2 hours ago, taxi said:
Sales relate to new mortgages, not existing ones. Interest rates are also up about 30% from their all time lows of a couple years ago. So the number of mortgages has stayed the same but the value of the non-fixed ones has increased.
So far since the slow down bank profits are "soaring":
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/peter-armstrong-big-banks-1.4426733
I'm sorry I just don't see a scenario where the government of Canada allows the chartered banks to drop the stress test on a large scale.
That article is from December 4, 2017. The new stress test rules didn't come into effect until January 1, 2018. Let's see what the bank profits are on October 31.
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48 minutes ago, taxi said:
Are we going to see 50% fewer mortgages though. Theoretically once prices drop and locals using mortgages, instead of foreigners buying with cash own homes, there could be more mortgages not less.
Sales are down 34% from April to May. That means 34% fewer mortgages are being approved. Not many people buying property with cash out there. Sales could slump 50% in the summer, so it's theoretically possible the banks could see 50% fewer mortgages on their books if you factor in all the business they are losing from the credit unions and private lenders. October 31 is year end for the banks. We will see at that time what their balance sheet looks like and their profits for the last fiscal year. If profits are way down and share prices drop, you could see the banks putting pressure on the OSFI and the government to relax the mortgage rules.
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51 minutes ago, Warhippy said:
Man the more I read the more I realize how unique my family position is.
We owe literally no money to anyone. LIke literally have zero debt.
We have close to 80,000 saved up to buy, with access to another 65,000 so in essence upwards of $145,000 downpayment
But we're renting a beautiful little character home, and while a shade small for our family for only $900 a month and we keep saving money. Roughly $15,000 ish a year
I keep seeing people going all out jumping in to a market in wich a simple PEST or SWAT analysis would show people is on the road to a severe downturn in the same way capitalism has failed. IE; Infinite growth is not possible based on the construct of monetary viablity. Or in essence, you cannot go higher than the populace can afford and we reached that point about 18 months ago.
Where in Penticton a 3 bedroom shack was just losted at $2500 a month rent, $1250 deposit upfront and an additional $1250 for any pet. So essentially your first months rent being $5000. In Penticton. Where the yearly median income is $19,800 on the low end and averages out to $27,400 on the high end per person.
I cannot fathom how prices can keep increasing with supply now starting to grow faster than in recent memory.
I also cannot fathom buying in this ridiculous market even with our current downpayment
My friend my advice to you is to sit tight and wait it out. Things are changing right now in a big way and although I don't really see a market crash per se I think there will be deals out there to be had over the next few months to a year. Inventory levels are over 11,000 units right now which is quite a bit higher than last year at this time,so there could be a correction coming this summer.
Don't wait too long though as you want to start to build up some equity in your future new home. Interest rates are still at historically low levels, so even a mortgage rate of 3.80% which is what you can get right now on a 5 year fixed rate is historically quite cheap, so that mortgage principal will get paid down quickly.
Spend the summer looking around and see what is out there. Are you still in Penticton? If you come to Vancouver shoot me a message and we can go for a beer. I can fill you in on the market and what is going on.
P.S. That Trump thread is toxic. Such anger and hate in there. Glad I am out of there. Life is too short to be that angry all the time. Life is good right now for me. Hopefully everything is good for you as well. Peace and love bro...
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4 hours ago, taxi said:
We have a bank lawyer in the house?
I don't actually think this is true. I believe the chartered banks have to follow the qualification rules. Things are different for private lenders.
At the end of the day, rising interest rates are not going to hurt banks. The total number of mortgages might drop, but the profit off each individual mortgage will rise, which is a better scenario for banks.
Well my alter ego does play a lawyer...
Chartered banks can make exceptions. They do have some flexibility depending on the amount of the downpayment. Credit Unions can still qualify based on the contract rate, so the banks are currently losing alot of business to the credit unions. Private lenders don't really care about debt service ratios, as long as you put down 35% and the physical property is acceptable to the lender they will take on the mortgage, and some private lenders will still lend regardless if the rate is high enough.
Rising rates will still hurt banks because at the end of the day a 30-50% portfolio drop is worse than a 1-1.5% increase in mortgage rates. Also, rising rates means rising savings rates as well. Banks will have to pay more to entice people to save, i.e. GIC's and other savings vehicles. At the end of the day it all depends on the spread, savings rates versus borrowing rates. If banks are losing money they can put enough pressure on the government to change the rules again. The rules keep changing all the time.
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12 minutes ago, kingofsurrey said:
550 i think starting....
5 % down now. 10 % down in 6 months...
At least they come with 2 parking stalls..... i think 1100 sq ft. in the unit.. not the parking stall . LOL
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Seems pricey for the valley...
Looked at 4 . developments.. La Galeria ( sold out now ) , Mill District, Montrose and the Mahogany
Downtown Abby is growing. Could be a great investment opportunity...
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Just now, kingofsurrey said:
Upper Montrose in Abbotsford.....
Ah Montrose. That's a nice one, right downtown. You should pick one up.
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2 hours ago, kingofsurrey said:
Went to look at a few condo projects yesterday.. they were pre-order higher end projects.
Didn't pull the strings on a deal though.... I think i will wait for the 20 % off sale later this year.
Pre-sales aren't dropping 20% this year. Or next year. What project is it?
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6 hours ago, taxi said:
The individual banks don't put the higher restrictions in place. The Bank of Canada, which is controlled by the Minister of Finance, puts those rules into place. The individual banks have already slashed their lending rates pretty close to prime and the Bank of Canada is expected to increase interest rates. So if anything it will be harder to get a mortgage over the next few years, not easier.
Interest rates will probably rise another .5% over the coming year. Canada's debt to income ratio is way out of wack. It's at the point now where the IMF and international lenders are starting to worry about Canada's sustainability. Currently our benchmark interest rate is 1.25%. It's predicted that the rates will have to go up to 2.5% to put us in any kind of normal economic position. Part of the reason for the stress test was to see if borrowers could deal with the increased interest rates, either due to variable lending rates or after a mortgage renewal.
Yes the Bank of Canada does control the restrictions being put into place, but it's up to the individual banks to follow those rules. If a bank wants to push through more mortgage deals they simply have to ease up on their own restrictions, i.e. the GDS and TDS ratios for income qualification. Unless the mortgage is CMHC insured, it's up to the individual bank to set the bar on how risky a mortgage they want to approve. For example, RBC can approve a mortgage even though the buyer's total debt service ratio is 50 or 60%, even though the maximum is technically 44%. It doesn't matter what the Bank of Canada does. It's ultimately up to the individual bank or lender if they want to approve that riskier mortgage.
If the bank's mortgage portfolio is down 30-50% this year, it's possible the banks will indeed start to approve those riskier mortgages.
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5 minutes ago, kingofsurrey said:
You seem alot smarter than that Harvey character.......
You can never trust those Realtors, it's all about the money for them really...
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10 minutes ago, kingofsurrey said:
Most realtors say if you are prepared for the long term you can wait out the upcoming dip / drop / crash...
But are you missing an opportunity if you go this route...
The market may dip a bit in the near term, but once the banks realize their mortgage portfolio is down 30-50% because of the higher interest rates and increased stress tests that make it almost impossible to qualify for a mortgage, I believe the banks will ease up on their restrictions and the market will get busy again. Right now inventory levels are at a 5 year high, over 11,000 properties for sale at the moment, and sales are down 34% from this time last year. That is what is causing this slow down effect into a temporary buyer's market.
It's a great opportunity right now to shop for a bargain in some areas in terms of detached homes, condos are still running into multiple offers. If you can find a good deal on a detached home then go for it. Once the deals are had and once inventory levels drop and once the banks ease restrictions on mortgages and once rates start to drop again the market will pick up.
Summer will be much slower, so shop around now while you can. If you cash out where will you go? If you just cash out to rent you are taking a risk that you may not be able to get into the market again if prices increase.
Also, the market is not technically crashing at the moment. Prices have barely dropped from April to May even on the detached side. Condo prices haven't dropped at all.
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36 minutes ago, kingofsurrey said:
Is it time now to see our homes and move to the rental market before the collapse.
My brother has a home approximate value of $ 800,000 to 850,000 out in the Fraser Valley....
Should he cash out now and rent for a few years and then buy in again for a few hundred thoussand less.
Is it time to move from home owner to renter - basically time to sell SHORT on the market.....
No, Harvey told me not to sell. He is an expert in the field so I will listen to him...
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CIBC has to be THE worst bank to deal with, both on the credit side and the investment side. RBC isn't far behind. I use TD for all of my online banking as well as for all of my investment accounts, including my self-directed RRSP. If I walk into a bank the advisers all look like they just graduated from UBC three hours ago, so I wouldn't try and get advice from any one of them. Better to do all of your research online instead.
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27 minutes ago, aGENT said:
Nope. Edler circa 2018. And he could easily be on a 1st pair on a contender.
We can agree to disagree my friend. Edler is a hot button topic in Vancouver. I'm sure we can both agree that the Canucks really need an injection of talented youth on the blue line. With Juolevi on his way and Tryamkin and Brisebois a possibility in a year or two, I see positive signs for our back end. Love Troy Stecher. My favourite future pairing would be Juolevi and Tryamkin. I hope the big Russian decides to come back home soon where he belongs...
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3 minutes ago, aGENT said:
There's nothing borderline about him. The guy plays 23+ minutes a night in ALL situations. He's by far our best D and it's not particularly close.
He'd be a top pair D on any team that doesn't already have a better legit #1 or comparable #2 left D.
I've watched Edler play his whole career. You are talking about an Edler from 5-7 years ago. The Edler of today is a liability on the PP, he wouldn't be my first choice to be on the ice with 2 minutes left in a 2-2 deadlock, and he certainly wouldn't be a #1 pairing defenceman on a playoff team with Stanley Cup aspirations...
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2 hours ago, aGENT said:
He's a top pair D...
Seriously people's valuations....
He's a borderline top pair D on the CANUCKS. That doesn't say much. He's also only got one year left on his contract. I'd drive him to the airport myself if we could get a first round pick for him really...
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Edler for a first round pick? Am I dreaming? If that deal is on the table at the draft then you pull the trigger...
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We need the big Russian back. He'd be a great pairing with Juolevi. C'mon Benning, bring the big Russian back home where he belongs.
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This kid is gonna be a beauty. 5th round pick. Absolute steal. I want to see him paired up with Gadjovich and Kole Lind. That could be a beauty of a third line.
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Just now, Alflives said:
I’m hoping it’s not so bad that it isn’t healed well enough in three weeks, so he can do hard training. I wonder if, considering how long and difficult his season was, it’s best he takes a few weeks off?
I think he definitely needs the rest for sure. Too bad it was due to injury, but the thumb will heal. I'm just worried about his weight training as he needs to add bulk and muscle in order to make the team next fall. Hopefully the injury isn't too bad, although the thumb is probably the worst finger to injure for a hockey player.
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Hopefully he turns out better than that other DiPietro kid that went #1 overall.
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The BC Real Estate Discussion Thread
in Off-Topic General
Posted
Sounds like a guy I'd like to meet. Maybe you can make the introduction. Does he have blue eyes like me? I'll get him in line for you, he just needs a good smack in the arse. You have to get these Italians in line or they will go full whacko real quick. Maybe I can teach him how to sing. You know I am a very good singer, probably the best singer around really. My singing button is far larger than anyone else's, and it works too. Maybe I can teach him about Real Estate. I'm sure I know more about Real Estate than some dude who pretended to be a lawyer on this forum...