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Alchemy Time

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    Mafia: The Holy Grail (Game Over - SK Wins!)

    in White Noise

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Intoewsables said:

    The optimal play for the scum is to RB + MK AE and avoid any f**kery in F3. If they do that, it really makes no difference to us.

    Wait if we do this illunga vote and you're right and we sacrifice AE he loses his chance to win with us, and we're just back to you deciding between me and LL. We don't gain anything.

     

    I don't want to lose, but it's f**ked up to basically make AE lose here. I at this point trust that he's been telling the truth.

    Mafia: The Holy Grail (Game Over - SK Wins!)

    in White Noise

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Intoewsables said:

    I don't follow your logic. If you're so worried about 3HG, why not pick a target from the pool you've identified as "could be either"? Seems like WW and LL are much more likely to yield an anti-town flip based on what you're saying.

    3hg helps us until mafia are dead, I don't want to hit them. That's the reason I'm not going after WW.

    Mafia: The Holy Grail (Game Over - SK Wins!)

    in White Noise

    Posted

    11 hours ago, luckylager said:

    I put the save on duke last two rounds, but I think I f**ked up because I may not have been able to use it on the same person in consecutive rounds. 

     

    To avoid directly quoting the host - blah blah blah and can save yourself, but not in consecutive rounds.

    So it's that or I was RB'd again. 

     

    I didn't bother to ask because I don't think it matters at this point. 

     

    Mafia: The Holy Grail (Game Over - SK Wins!)

    in White Noise

    Posted

    ok gonna type out my thoughts let me begin by breaking down the other players based on which factions they definitively cannot be a part of:
    Cannot Be Mafia:
    SD, Toews, AE
    this is pretty self explanatory. All three investigated by confirmed sheriff.


    Cannot Be 3HG:
    AE, llunga
    AE, again, confirmed part of a different faction.
    llunga, confirmed shubbery dispenser, doesn't thematically make sense as part of 3HG team.


    Could be either:
    WW, LL


    First, while I'm gonna argue here that 2 of Toews, SD, WW, or LL are 3HG, I AM NOT advocating that we should lynch members based on being suspected of that. We should be trying to hit mafia exclusively, 3HG players can serve as meat shields for TP, especially ones among the sheriff confirmed players, so we have to cooperate.

     

    Second, while it is possible AE could win solo if he wins with town, I just have to disregard it for now. If we nail final mafia and the game doesn't end, we can re-examine it.

     

    Anyway, here is my arguments for why the remaining 3, llunga, WW, and LL, could be mafia. At least one, possibly 2 of these three is correct.

     

    -first, llunga. this one is based on my above theory. llunga is the only player uninvestigated which cannot be 3HG. my argument for him is purely based on probability. I think it is more likely to hit mafia on him than WW because of this.


    -second, WW. This is the case if I'm simply overthinking it. Al was trying to engineer a tie, Maf shot duce to save WW. open and shut


    -third, LL. This is where the majority of my thinking has gone. We have seen no actual evidence that he is the doctor. zfetch didn't see him try to save TL, and then Zfetch got killed the next round, so were killed the only people who would be able to confirm LL's story.

     

    LL said with 100% assurance at the time that he was blocked with the TL kill. see first quote


    then is not sure how doc works and isn't sure if he got blocked last round. see second quote


    This was the turning point for me though, reading back through the thread this morning. see third quote
    this is a big TMI slip. LL knew that whoever was the target of the Vig kill was gonna be around for another round.

     

    My main question, what are the chances the mafia blind snipe LL with a block on the round they target the sheriff for the kill?
    Here is my timeline of events.
    Mafia bet on this game being designed to be quick, no doctor, come up with plan to impersonate doctor.
    TL claims sheriff
    They decide to pull the trigger on plan, which involves sacrificing Jazz, who pulls a weak counter-claim after vote cutoff.
    Jazz shoots TL
    Their plan looks even better because Jazz happens to get vig killed that round.
    Zfetch doesn't see LL, LL claims blocked
    Shoot Zfetch,
    LL claims he saved il duce
    Shoot il duce
    LL claims misplay but that he might've been blocked, he's not sure
    current round

     

    tldr LL is very likely a fake doc

     

    and then I can further expand on 3hg players but for them tldr its probably toews and one of WW or if we're really unlucky SD

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