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[OFFICIAL] Playoff Indicator Chart 2011


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#271 ladii.canucklehead

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:40 AM

it's not that simple, you need to consider how the other bubble teams do then because you are saying nashville beats all of them, and so on and so forth


Just a simple answer. Either way, we haven't clinched a playoff spot yet.
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#272 Cromeslab

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:40 AM

do the math
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#273 Nuckwit

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:40 AM

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Nope. There's a 19 point gap between us and Nashville, who are in 9th place, and seeing as they have 13 games left, they have 26 points left to spare, meaning we could miss the playoffs if they won 10 games, and we lost all of our remaining games.

That calculation just shows Nashville can finish ahead of the Canucks, not that the Canucks can finish lower than 8th.
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#274 LeopardGecko

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:41 AM

it's not that simple, you need to consider how the other bubble teams do then because you are saying nashville beats all of them, and so on and so forth


No, it is that simple. There are only 8 playoff spots, therefore team #9 would have to join one of the 8 spots, thus, displacing the Canucks.
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#275 JamesTW

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:42 AM

I'm guessing math isn't a strong suit for those who don't realize that the Canucks have likely clinched. I haven't looked at all the games to do the math myself, and I don't really feel like it. Suffice it to say 99 points is more than enough to be guaranteed a playoff spot and very likely the division.
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#276 gmen81

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:44 AM

We clinched a playoff spot before the season even started. That part really doesn't matter, this whole season doesn't matter unless the Canucks go on a long playoff run this year.
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#277 ladii.canucklehead

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:45 AM

<br /><br /><br />
That's not what he's saying, eight teams have to get ahead of Vancouver for them to miss. The problem is the teams that all have to catch Vancvouver have games against each other thereby potentially making it impossible for enough teams to get ahead.


NHL.com doesn't work that way anyway. They just wait until it is mathematically impossible for the team/teams tied for 8th place to pass a certain team in points before putting the X next to the standings.
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#278 Brad Marchand

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:47 AM

Five more points, earned by us or lost by the Flames and Wild, and the division title is ours.
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#279 Bombastik der Teutone

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:52 AM

Nope. There's a 19 point gap between us and Nashville, who are in 9th place, and seeing as they have 13 games left, they have 26 points left to spare, meaning we could miss the playoffs if they won 10 games, and we lost all of our remaining games.


+1
this was what i also wanted to post
but iŽm sure weŽll make it finally next week
no doubts...WE ARE IN!!!!
GO NUCKS GO :towel:
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#280 JamesTW

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:55 AM

<br />Of course, I saw it too, but it's still mathematically possible for us to miss the playoffs.<br /><br />If we go 0-12-0 and stay where we are, then all the other teams still in it can theoretically catch up, including the 9th place team (NSH) which could go for at least 7-0-6 to hit 100 points, with the best they can go at 13-0-0 for a total of 106 points.<br /><br />Well there you have it. A long way of saying it's practically impossible <img src='http://forum.canucks...ult/21355pw.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':bigblush:' /><br />

<br /><br /><br />
All those other teams have games against each other so it might not be possible for enough teams to catch the Canucks.
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#281 Louis

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:56 AM

You're right, some idiots probably got frustrated that they couldn't understand what you were talking about and gave you minuses :P
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#282 Nuckwit

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:58 AM

You're right, some idiots probably got frustrated that they couldn't understand what you were talking about and gave you minuses :P

There are idiots on CDC?
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#283 Van_City123

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 12:59 AM

Wow that is so hard to believe how we have our destiny in our own hands at this part of the season. Go Canucks Go.What a magical season thats for damn sure.
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#284 JamesTW

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:00 AM

<br />Five more points, earned by us or lost by the Flames and Wild, and the division title is ours.<br />

<br /><br /><br />
Four more to eleminate Calgary (who don't have enough and can't get enough wins for the tie breaker) and a win monday plus 2 more points to eliminate Minnesota.
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#285 Bieksa's Quote

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:02 AM

<br /><br /><br />
All those other teams have games against each other so it might not be possible for enough teams to catch the Canucks.


Ah I forgot to take that into account. But the bonus points might still make it mathematically possible? :lol:

It doesn't matter, we're in the playoffs. Those lowly middle seeds right now (ie, Chicago) are on pace for 98 points, already below our current perch of 99 points above the Conference. See you in hell, suckers! :P
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#286 Durian

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:02 AM

if canucks win 2 more games they will clinch the division, thus getting a playoff spot too


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hi wee trad bobbi luuuu 4 ryan clowne. we gett big depht wingelrs who can [****] kasasian up in fite an kill ben marchandt an duncen keiths we will win with gritti forward yes?

ok butt i already kno mark gillis he taek recomiendation from mee al time. i responsibel for his disisihun to draft sedin ok?

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#287 snowboard888

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:03 AM

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Let's settle this:

Assuming all the opposition remaining games are 3-pointers:
  • 9th Preds win all their remaining games: 106 pts
  • 8th Lames win all their remaining games (nothing vs. Preds): 103 pts
  • 7th Yotes win all remaining games except vs. Lames (nothing vs. Preds): 106 pts
  • 6th Kings win all remaining games except vs. Yotes, Lames, Preds (1 each): 106 pts
  • 5th Hawks win all remaining games except vs. Yotes (nothing vs. others): 108 pts
  • 4th Stars win all remaining games except vs. ^teams: 105 pts
  • 3rd Sharks win all reaming games except vs. ^teams: 103 pts
  • 2nd Wings win all remaining games except vs ^teams: 111 pts
ALL MORE THAN VAN HAS NOW (99 pts)
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#288 Ben Kenobi

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:05 AM

The Canucks can still fall as far as 11th in the conference, if you include OT wins. The key number is 103 points. Without OT wins, they can fall to 10th, ahead of Anaheim. Anaheim cannot catch Vancouver without pulling down one of the other teams.  

Red Wings win Hurricanes, Blues, Leafs, Canucks, Penguins, Jackets (108)
Red Wings lose Preds(OT), Preds(OT), Wild(OT), Hawks(OT), Hawks(OT), Hawks(OT)

Sharks win Blues, Stars, Stars, Ducks, Ducks (103)
Sharks lose Flames(OT), Wild(OT), Coyotes(OT), Coyotes(OT), Coyotes (OT), Kings(OT), Kings(OT)

Blackhawks win Capitals, Red Wings, Red Wings, Red Wings, Bruins, Lightning, Canadiens, Jackets, Blues, Panthers (105)
Blackhawks lose Ducks(OT), Coyotes(OT), Stars(OT), Sharks(OT)

Nashville win Bruins, Red Wings, Sabres, Oilers, Canucks, Avalanche, Thrashers, Bluejackets, Blues, Red Wings (103)Nashville lose Ducks(OT), Stars(OT), Kings(OT)

Phoenix win Avalanche, Jackets, Blues, Hawks, Canucks, Oilers, Sharks, Sharks, Coyotes (103)
Phoenix lose Kings(OT), Stars(OT), Sharks(OT), Flames(OT)

Stars win Jackets, Avalanche, Flyers, Hawks, Preds, Coyotes, Ducks  (102)
Stars lose Sharks(OT), Sharks(OT), Ducks(OT), Kings(OT), Wild(OT), Kings (OT)

Kings win Oilers, Canucks, Avalanche, Blues, Preds, Ducks (102)
Kings lose Sharks(OT), Sharks(OT), Stars(OT), Stars(OT), Ducks(OT), Flames(OT), Ducks(OT), Coyotes(OT)

Minnesota win Canucks, Sharks, Jackets, Canadiens, Leafs,  Blues, Blues, Oilers, Lightning, Red Wings, Canucks, Oilers, (101)
Minnesota lose Stars(OT)

Ducks win Blues, Preds, Avalanche, Hawks, Stars, Stars, Flames, Kings, Kings, Flames (102)
Ducks lose Kings(OT), Stars(OT), Sharks (OT), Sharks (OT), Coyotes (OT)

Flames win Avalanche, Oilers, Blues, Avalanche, Oilers, Canucks, Coyotes, Ducks, Kings, Sharks
Flames lose, Ducks (OT) (102)

Edited by Ben Kenobi, 13 March 2011 - 01:30 AM.

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#289 Louis

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:07 AM

Okay, let me spell it out for the ones this is going over the heads of:

If Nashville wins all their remaining games, the teams they play will not get points in these games. Some of these teams will be above them in the current standing which

means that they will slip. The site the guy used put all this into consideration and found that mathematically, it is not possible for the Canucks to finish below the top 8. It is

not as simple as getting the games remaining from the cutoff team, multiplying them by 2, adding them to their current point total and comparing that to the amount of points we have.


EDIT:

Ok, the guy misunderstood how that site worked

Edited by Louis, 13 March 2011 - 01:12 AM.

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#290 The Belgian Canucks

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:07 AM

10 done, 19 to go...
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#291 tonyDaTiger

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:10 AM

Stop jumping the freakin' gun, man. We don't clinch until we clinch. I don't think anyone really gives two-sh!ts about some simulation. The next thing we know, this guy will start running some simulation about who wins the Stanley Cup...

If you want to do it the right way, then wait until the moment we get 108 points(I think)... :emot-parrot:
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#292 Bombastik der Teutone

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:11 AM

Let's settle this:

Assuming all the opposition remaining games are 3-pointers:

  • 9th Preds win all their remaining games: 106 pts
  • 8th Lames win all their remaining games (nothing vs. Preds): 103 pts
  • 7th Yotes win all remaining games except vs. Lames (nothing vs. Preds): 106 pts
  • 6th Kings win all remaining games except vs. Yotes, Lames, Preds (1 each): 106 pts
  • 5th Hawks win all remaining games except vs. Yotes (nothing vs. others): 108 pts
  • 4th Stars win all remaining games except vs. ^teams: 105 pts
  • 3rd Sharks win all reaming games except vs. ^teams: 103 pts
  • 2nd Wings win all remaining games except vs ^teams: 111 pts
ALL MORE THAN VAN HAS NOW (99 pts)


+1

thanks for this

but to be honest..who believes that the nucks will lose all remaining games??? ;)

Edited by TheGermanCanuck, 13 March 2011 - 01:27 AM.

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#293 Ben Kenobi

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:12 AM

Post above says you are wrong. That site wouldn't happen to be sports club stats?

All they do is run simulations saying that there is a less than 1 in 10 million chance of the Canucks missing the playoffs.
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#294 GodzillaDeuce

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:15 AM

Let's settle this:

Assuming all the opposition remaining games are 3-pointers:

  • 9th Preds win all their remaining games: 106 pts
  • 8th Lames win all their remaining games (nothing vs. Preds): 103 pts
  • 7th Yotes win all remaining games except vs. Lames (nothing vs. Preds): 106 pts
  • 6th Kings win all remaining games except vs. Yotes, Lames, Preds (1 each): 106 pts
  • 5th Hawks win all remaining games except vs. Yotes (nothing vs. others): 108 pts
  • 4th Stars win all remaining games except vs. ^teams: 105 pts
  • 3rd Sharks win all reaming games except vs. ^teams: 103 pts
  • 2nd Wings win all remaining games except vs ^teams: 111 pts
ALL MORE THAN VAN HAS NOW (99 pts)


you are a jedi

+1

(i was trying to get the same numbers but was slower than you haha)
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well I'm sorry that gd is soo perfect


#295 snowboard888

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:16 AM

thanks for this

but to be honest..who believes that the nucks will lose all remaining games??? ;)


Np :). I know, I was just kinda hoping it would save a lot of confused/frustrated people from discussing a ridiculously hypothetical situation. Time is a valuable thing, though I guess if you're on CDC you have enough of it to go around :P
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#296 DocHouse

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:17 AM

It really is as simple as some other posters are saying. The way the NHL calculates it, a team has clinched a playoff spot when they have earned enough points where if they were then to lose all of their remaining games, and the teams outside of the top 8 spots cannot earn more points than that team to displace them in the standings.

Basically, a team gets an X beside their name when the probability of said team dropping to 9th place in the conference is 0.

What Sports Club Stats has done is calculated that Vancouver's chances of dropping to 9th place are so close to 0, that they might as well be 0, given the remaining games to be played by the other clubs in the West. Unfortunately for Vancouver fans, this number still isn' t quite 0, so we still haven't really clinched a spot yet. It's still statistically possible for us to drop to 9th.

Sports Club Stats is saying "Lets take every possible scenario of the outcomes of the remaining games to be played to calculate the odds of a given team making the playoffs. The NHL on the other hand, says "What is the best case scenario (i.e. Winning all of a teams remaining games) or worst case scenario (losing all of their remaining games) depending on what result we are looking to determine and use only those. Using every possible scenario instead of best and/or worst case skews the odds one way or the other just a bit.

Edited by DocHouse, 13 March 2011 - 01:19 AM.

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#297 kchengc

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:19 AM

Let's settle this:

Assuming all the opposition remaining games are 3-pointers:

  • 9th Preds win all their remaining games: 106 pts
  • 8th Lames win all their remaining games (nothing vs. Preds): 103 pts
  • 7th Yotes win all remaining games except vs. Lames (nothing vs. Preds): 106 pts
  • 6th Kings win all remaining games except vs. Yotes, Lames, Preds (1 each): 106 pts
  • 5th Hawks win all remaining games except vs. Yotes (nothing vs. others): 108 pts
  • 4th Stars win all remaining games except vs. ^teams: 105 pts
  • 3rd Sharks win all reaming games except vs. ^teams: 103 pts
  • 2nd Wings win all remaining games except vs ^teams: 111 pts
ALL MORE THAN VAN HAS NOW (99 pts)



2 more wins then... ;p 2 more wins then we clinch division... ;)

Edited by kchengc, 13 March 2011 - 01:23 AM.

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#298 tonyDaTiger

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:19 AM

The Hockey Gawds really hate these type of threads... :emot-parrot:
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#299 xshaw

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:20 AM

The Canucks can still fall as far as 11th in the conference, if you include OT wins. The key number is 113 points.

Without OT wins, they can fall to 10th, ahead of Anaheim. Anaheim cannot catch Vancouver without pulling down one of the other teams.

Red Wings win Hurricanes, Blues, Leafs, Canucks, Penguins, Jackets (118)
Red Wings lose Preds(OT), Preds(OT), Wild(OT), Hawks(OT), Hawks(OT), Hawks(OT)

Sharks win Blues, Stars, Stars, Ducks, Ducks (113)
Sharks lose Flames(OT), Wild(OT), Coyotes(OT), Coyotes(OT), Coyotes (OT), Kings(OT), Kings(OT)

Blackhawks win Capitals, Red Wings, Red Wings, Red Wings, Bruins, Lightning, Canadiens, Jackets, Blues, Panthers (115)
Blackhawks lose Ducks(OT), Coyotes(OT), Stars(OT), Sharks(OT)

Stars win Jackets, Avalanche, Flyers, Hawks, Preds, Coyotes, Ducks (112)
Stars lose Sharks(OT), Sharks(OT), Ducks(OT), Kings(OT), Wild(OT), Kings (OT)

Kings win Oilers, Canucks, Avalanche, Blues, Preds, Ducks (112)
Kings lose Sharks(OT), Sharks(OT), Stars(OT), Stars(OT), Ducks(OT), Flames(OT), Ducks(OT), Coyotes(OT)

Phoenix win Avalanche, Jackets, Blues, Hawks, Canucks, Oilers, Sharks, Sharks, Coyotes (113)
Phoenix lose Kings(OT), Stars(OT), Sharks(OT), Flames(OT),

Nashville win Bruins, Red Wings, Sabres, Oilers, Canucks, Avalanche, Thrashers, Bluejackets, Blues, Red Wings (113)
Nashville lose Ducks(OT), Stars(OT), Kings(OT),

Minnesota win Canucks, Sharks, Jackets, Canadiens, Leafs, Blues, Blues, Oilers, Lightning, Red Wings, Canucks, Oilers, (111)
Minnesota lose, Stars(OT)

Ducks win Blues, Preds, Avalanche, Hawks, Stars, Stars, Flames, Kings, Kings, Flames (112)
Ducks lose Kings(OT), Stars(OT), Sharks (OT), Sharks (OT), Coyotes (OT)

Flames win Avalanche, Oilers, Blues, Avalanche, Oilers, Canucks, Coyotes, Ducks, Kings, Sharks
Flames lose, Ducks (OT) (112)


I'm pretty sure you added 10 points to each team in this scenario, meaning that the key number would actually be 103, which is 2 more wins.
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#300 Ben Kenobi

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Posted 13 March 2011 - 01:22 AM

u can try playing with numbers but i just don't think that's possible anymore...

Still possible. They would need to get 103 points in order to clinch. It is still possible for them to fall as far as 11th with only 101 points due to the West being so flat this year. So two more wins to clinch both their division and a playoff spot.

Edited by Ben Kenobi, 13 March 2011 - 01:25 AM.

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