Nuckwit Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 No, this is not a duplicate of the Magic Number thread, read on. According to http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Northwest/Canucks.html the Canucks clinched a playoff spot with tonight's win over the Flames. This site performs a simulation of possible remaining results, and in all cases the Canucks finish 8th or better. The NHL hasn't realized it (no 'X' beside Vancouver on nhl.com), and none of the media seems to have picked up on it either. The math is difficult, much more complex than the simplistic "Magic Number" calculation which can be a poor predictor of playoff/division/conference clinching due to it's failure to take into account all the remaining interactions between other teams. It's not surprising the media missed it, but it is surprising the NHL doesn't have some decent math guys and/or software to figure this out. It'll be interesting to see how long before everyone catches on. UPDATE: Since the original post, sportclubstats.com has withdrawn their claim of 100% playoff certainty. See below for more discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papayas Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 god damn it why don't you just marry nhl.com? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GodzillaDeuce Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 hmmm... sportsclubstats runs on simulations of seasons, so while they give a good indication of how the season should play out, it's not exhaustive. there's possibly still a chance that the canucks miss if EVERYTHING were to go wrong (and sportsclubstats just missed that season in their simulations) edit: check /topic/298045-canucks-clinched-a-playoff-spot-tonight/page__st__20__p__9480647#entry9480647">this post on page 2 for the type of season i'm talking about before getting too excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladii.canucklehead Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Nope. There's a 19 point gap between us and Nashville, who are in 9th place, and seeing as they have 13 games left, they have 26 points left to spare, meaning we could miss the playoffs if they won 10 games, and we lost all of our remaining games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joker Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Why is everyone getting worried about clinching a playoff spot? You know we're getting in, so that's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van_City123 Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 i still havent caught on sorry. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GodzillaDeuce Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Nope. There's a 19 point gap between us and Nashville, who are in 9th place, and seeing as they have 13 games left, they have 26 points left to spare, meaning we could miss the playoffs if they won 10 games, and we lost all of our remaining games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mata10 Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeopardGecko Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 No, they did not. They only clinch a playoff spot when the #9th place team in the West cannot surpass the amount of points the Canucks have, if team #9 were to win their remaining games, and if the Canucks were to lose their remaining games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesTW Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 <br />Nope. There's a 19 point gap between us and Nashville, who are in 9th place, and seeing as they have 13 games left, they have 26 points left to spare, meaning we could miss the playoffs if they won 10 games, and we lost all of our remaining games.<br /> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladii.canucklehead Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 it's not that simple, you need to consider how the other bubble teams do then because you are saying nashville beats all of them, and so on and so forth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cromeslab Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 do the math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuckwit Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Nope. There's a 19 point gap between us and Nashville, who are in 9th place, and seeing as they have 13 games left, they have 26 points left to spare, meaning we could miss the playoffs if they won 10 games, and we lost all of our remaining games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeopardGecko Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 it's not that simple, you need to consider how the other bubble teams do then because you are saying nashville beats all of them, and so on and so forth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesTW Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 I'm guessing math isn't a strong suit for those who don't realize that the Canucks have likely clinched. I haven't looked at all the games to do the math myself, and I don't really feel like it. Suffice it to say 99 points is more than enough to be guaranteed a playoff spot and very likely the division. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmen81 Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 We clinched a playoff spot before the season even started. That part really doesn't matter, this whole season doesn't matter unless the Canucks go on a long playoff run this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladii.canucklehead Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> That's not what he's saying, eight teams have to get ahead of Vancouver for them to miss. The problem is the teams that all have to catch Vancvouver have games against each other thereby potentially making it impossible for enough teams to get ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad Marchand Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Five more points, earned by us or lost by the Flames and Wild, and the division title is ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bombastik der Teutone Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Nope. There's a 19 point gap between us and Nashville, who are in 9th place, and seeing as they have 13 games left, they have 26 points left to spare, meaning we could miss the playoffs if they won 10 games, and we lost all of our remaining games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesTW Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 <br />Of course, I saw it too, but it's still mathematically possible for us to miss the playoffs.<br /><br />If we go 0-12-0 and stay where we are, then all the other teams still in it can theoretically catch up, including the 9th place team (NSH) which could go for at least 7-0-6 to hit 100 points, with the best they can go at 13-0-0 for a total of 106 points.<br /><br />Well there you have it. A long way of saying it's practically impossible <img src='/public/style_emoticons/default/21355pw.gif">http://forum.canucks.com/public/style_emoticons/default/21355pw.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><br /> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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