Whale Tail
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Posts posted by Whale Tail
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Come on habs 8 min is enough time to rebound
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Here is the article. Just speculation on things most people have already discussed on the forums here. Still nothing new based on his injury and healing yet
The bigger, rougher version of the Canucks that Jim Benning envisions isnt all bad for Mike Santorellis future in Vancouver.
Sure, hes undersized, and if youre making a blueprint to get through the juggernauts of the Pacific Division, its not going to start with re-signing the pending unrestricted free agent.
And when you hear Benning gush over the idea of infusing his bottom six with size, grit and physicality, to take the heat of his top six, well, you wonder how much love he has in his heart for a tenacious, blade-wearing water bug.
But if the Canucks are going to get back to their uptempo roots, they could make use of Santorellis wheels, and they know it. This remains especially true if they trade Ryan Kesler or buy out David Booth. Or both.
Re-signing Santorelli, the Vancouver native who reanimated his career in 49 games, has been one of the Canucks priorities this off-season.
By now, Santorellis story is well worn. Signed to a two-way, show-me contract, he was one of the few positive Canucks stories. On a team of underachievers, he excelled.
He created a role seemingly out of sawdust, starting his season an afterthought and ending it indispensable.
His Jan. 16 shoulder injury, the one that ended his year with surgery, was one of the grandest nails in the 2013-14 Canucks coffin.
Now what?
Well, now Santorelli would like a little comfort and security in the form of a multi-year contract, say in the $1.5-$2 million range after proving again that, yes, he is an NHL player.
It would be in line with the way he played the first 34 games, during which he had 22 points, was a team leader in even strength points, and had possession numbers, including a 53.5 per cent Corsi rating, which were rather remarkable.
His numbers backed up what you saw on the ice, which was a player who was hard to knock off pucks and one who didnt mind trying power moves to get to the net.
But, and he wasnt alone in this under John Tortorella, Santorelli hit a wall in December. His final 15 games were troubling. He was getting wrecked regularly in his matchups while his Corsi rating dipped to a bottom-feeding 44 per cent in that stretch.
That tailing off is one of the red flags the Canucks now have to deal with.
It would be wonderful and easy if the Canucks knew theyd get the Santorelli they saw in the first three months. But there is a reason he was forced to sign a two-way contract in the summer. Its because he just a few months removed from being waived by the Florida Panthers.
Santorelli was picked up by the Winnipeg Jets in April 2013, but the Jets werent keen on re-signing the centre after seeing him up close for 10 games.
So by the time Santorelli agreed to that deal with the Canucks, he was on his third team in four months.
Its going to take more than 34 solid games to wipe away the stench of getting passed over by the Panthers and the Jets.
So where does this leave the Canucks?
It leaves them ready and willing to bet on Santorelli again, but its difficult to see them willing to gamble on a deal thats longer than one year.
Maybe that changes if Kesler is traded. Its not like the organization is loaded with centres who could take his place. Come to think of it, there are none.
Such a scenario could help Santorellis leverage, though you cant view him as a Kesler replacement either.
I think the Canucks would like to get Santorelli on a one-year deal closer to $1 million.
Clearly, he was motivated last season to fight not only for a roster spot but for a longer term contract.
It worked so well last year until it was cut short by that shoulder injury.
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On my iPhone so I don't have the interview first hand. It's not a new one. Gaunce really stressed how his positioning is what makes his plays and actions count. He said something along the lines as you can be fast and skate up and down the ice doing nothing but looking like your playing hard. He thinks it's a waste of energy that can be used better for the game and team.
I have a feeling he will be a player with an extra drive to go Into come playoff times.
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A nice and refreshing thing to was it's not just about goon 4th line grinding it out. It's about offensive starts with a 3rd and 4th line that can support and take pressure off the 1st and 2nd line. So means spread out the scoring power and take some pressure off Sedins and kes. More depth. Not a psychic so won't bother guessing who but definitely sounds like some summer trades are coming. And horvat will be given a fair chance at joining the canucks next year
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IF Iginla sign cheaper for Boston thorough becuase the bonus pay next year, is Boston sitting that bad?
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Article on Horvat from Canucksarmy. Long post, interesting read. Doesn't support the hopeful belief of him being our main guy.
http://canucksarmy.com/2014/3/10/reasonable-expectations-for-the-future-is-bo-horvat-a-top-6-cIf you've been following me on Twitter over the last few days, you'll have noticed that I haven't exactly been too complimentary of the Vancouver Canucks' top prospects. Taking it even a step further, I guess you could say that, overall, I hold a pretty negative view of the long-term future of the franchise.
It's not that I don't think that guys like Bo Horvat, Brenden Gaunce, and Hunter Shinkaruk can't or won't turn into useful NHL players; it's just that we need to establish what are reasonable expectations for these players moving forward. The fact of the matter is that aside from Hunter Shinkaruk, not a single prospect the Canucks have in the system has produced at a high enough level that you can say with any degree of confidence that they'll be a top-6 NHL forward.
The focus here will be on Bo Horvat since he was recently ranked as the #1 prospect in Vancouver's system, #12 in all of hockey by The Hockey News, and the 6th best prospect with no NHL experience by International Scouting Services and Buzzing the Net, but it also applies to Brenden Gaunce to a lesser degree. We'll look at some of the arguments in favour of Horvat, examine the validity of these arguments, and look at where NHL top-6 centres really come from. I suggest you get comfortable, because this is a pretty hefty read.
Bo Horvat: Man, Myth, LegendFirst off, let's establish what the people are saying about Bo Horvat and what some of his perceived strengths are as a hockey player. From The Hockey News' Future Watch 2014:
"He'll always be linked to the draft-day trade for Cory Schneider to get New Jersey's first-round pick, but what put Horvat on the fast track was his excellent play at the WJC in all situations, along with his leadership. He's won't dazzle with speed, but has an uncanny ability to find his linemates. His two-way effectiveness could land him NHL duty next season in the third-line slot, where the Canucks have struggled to find a replacement for Manny Malhotra."From International Scouting Services head scout Ross MacLean, courtesy of Buzzing The Net:
"The Canucks traded Corey Schneider to the New Jersey Devils to draft Horvat for a reason. Simply put, the 6-foot, 203-pounder is the total package. He plays a strong two-way game, is a wizard in the faceoff dot and possesses the offensive upside to slot in as a first or second-line centre in the NHL. Horvat, who has scored 26 goals and 66 points in 45 games this year, projects to develop into a gritty forward comparable to Vancouver’s own Ryan Kesler."From Hockey's Future:
"Horvat’s bullish style of play garnered a lot of attention this year both in London and during the Knights’ run through the OHL playoffs. On a young team, Horvat stepped up and assumed a huge leadership responsibility, while showing his offensive bonafides. But what impresses observers most about Horvat is how hard he plays the game. He can score, but his truest strengths are defensive play and skill in the faceoff circle. Though he would be an ideal third-line centre in the NHL, Horvat could find himself on a team’s top six -- as the sandpaper on an offensively gifted line. He could be lethal in that role as he has the hands and nose for the net to take advantage of the dirty areas of the net."The common theme through all of these articles is that Horvat is an excellent two-way player, and stellar defensively. Given this view of his skillset, it's not at all surprising that the most common defense of Horvat's poor production relative to what his ceiling is supposed to be (we'll touch on that more later) is that London Knights coach Dale Hunter utilizes Horvat in an extreme defensive specialist role; he takes a lot of defensive zone faceoffs and plays against the toughest competition.
There are a couple of problems with this argument. First of all, the CHL does not track any location stats, so it's not possible to determine if Horvat's deployment is really tangibly different than any other top CHL centre. Personally, I find it really difficult to believe that Horvat is being deployed in a Manny Malhotra-like role and starting more than a third of all his shifts in the defensive zone. It's more likely that Dale Hunter will throw him on the ice for occasional faceoff duty in place of Ryan Rupert, Mitchell Marner or Michael McCarron if Hunter doesn't totally trust those guys. That wouldn't really cut into Horvat's offensive time so much as it would be giving him an extra minute or two of TOI per game.
Second of all, there's the question of quality of competition. While I don't doubt the fact that Horvat plays against strong competition, this only matters if he faces competition that is disproportionately strong relative to his peers. The best method we currently have to estimate CHL QualComp is through estimating time on ice for each CHL player, then seeing which players were on the ice when a certain player was also on the ice for a goal. You can read a much more detailed breakdown here, courtesy of Eric Tulsky at Broad Street Hockey.
Tulsky also looked at the quality of competition for a lot of the top prospects from last year's draft, and here's what he had to say about Horvat's performance relative to Max Domi:
"These estimates are not precise enough for me to be confident that Horvat faced much tougher competition, but it almost certainly wasn't easier. Still, Domi significantly outscored Horvat, both overall and per minute. The difference in their performance is larger than would be explained away just by the difference in usage. A scout's eye might help identify skills that will translate to NHL success, but it seems clear that Domi had the superior season this year."Also included in the write-up was a table ranking the estimated difficulty of competition of opposing forwards and defencemen. I've added a simple weighting (60% forwards, 40% defence since 60% of the players on the ice at 5v5 are forwards) and ranked the players presented in that table based on their estimated quality of competition:
If you believe that these rankings are reasonably accurate, undersized Portland Winterhawk Nic Petan, and a couple of guys who are already NHL top-6 centres in Nathan MacKinnon and Sean Monahan faced tougher competition than Horvat did, and still crushed it offensively. However, you still have to keep in mind that these are estimates, so saying that "Horvat faced easier competition" than them isn't entirely fair either.
The bottom line here is this: there is no evidence to suggest that Bo Horvat has faced uniquely difficult defensively-oriented deployments. He may play against tough competition, but nearly every top player in junior does. The fact still remains that his comparatively weak offensive production cannot be explained away by usage, and as we'll see in the next section, does not bode well if the Canucks are expecting him to be a top-6 NHL centre.
Where Do Top-6 Centres Come From?When projecting a player as a "first or second-line centre in the NHL," it's most important to define and identify who these NHL first and second-line NHL centres actually are. Originally, I defined a legitimate NHL top-6 centre as a player who is:
1) listed as a C on NHL.com
2) in the top-60 among NHL C's in even-strength TOI per game
3) also in the top-60 NHL C's in scoring.
To make a fair comparison to the Canucks' top prospects, I then looked for guys that played in the CHL in their draft year, and either in the CHL, NHL or AHL in their draft+1 season. Doing this yielded 27 players, but still excluded some guys that were pretty clearly top-6 centres like Jason Spezza and Mike Richards. As a result, I had to expand my strict definition to a softer one that included guys that took a lot of their team's faceoffs, were in the top-6 of their team in TOI/game, and also were in the top-6 of their team in scoring.
This expanded list includes 44 forwards. At the top end, you get guys like Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, and John Tavares. At the bottom end of this sample, there are guys like Derrick Brassard, Tyler Johnson, Mathieu Perreault, and Steve Ott. The list also includes some top rookies like Nathan MacKinnon and Sean Monahan,
and other young guys such as Cody Hodgson.(Ed. note: do not ever mention that name ever again. Ever)Once compiling this list of NHL top-6 centremen that played in the CHL during their draft year, I looked at their point production in both their draft and draft+1 seasons to see if there was a pattern. I have this running hypothesis that since the NHL is the best of the best, guys who will be good NHLers are usually dominant juniors in all aspects in the game, and this shows up in a ton of scoring relative to their peers. As such, you would expect the vast majority of guys who would become top-6 centres to score a ton when in junior. Here's the list of all ex-CHL top-6 centremen currently in the NHL sorted by points/game in their draft and draft+1 seasons:
A few important notes:
- For fun, I included Canucks prospects (and Zack Kassian) that were also wingers just to see where they stack up. Canucks are in bold and italic.
- Some players played in the NHL in their draft+1 season. To account for this, I did a reverse-NHL Equivalency (NHLE) estimate on their draft+1 NHL numbers to estimate what they would have scored in their CHL league. In most cases, this estimate wasn't out of line with what they'd already done in their CHL careers. In the cases that this provided a clearly inaccurate estimate, draft-1 and draft years were used instead.
- The asterisk denotes that a players' draft-1 and draft years were used because of a deficiency of good data for their draft+1 year. For Seguin and Thornton, this is because their draft+1 seasons were spent playing minimal minutes in the NHL, resulting in reverse-NHLE numbers that were far below what you would expect given their extremely prolific junior scoring rate. For Crosby, this is the opposite as a reverse-NHLE has him at like 7 points per game. For Shinkaruk, he's missed his draft+1 season due to injury. You would expect Thornton, Seguin and Shinkaruk to all be higher on this list had their draft+1 seasons been available.
The good news for Canucks fans is that there are players who have become top-6 centremen that have scored at a lower rate in the CHL than Bo Horvat has. Dallas' Cody Eakin (who was picked in the 3rd round, 85th overall by the Washington Capitals in 2009) is Horvat's closest comparable, and he looks like he'll contribute about 35 points and a positive Corsi this year while playing average difficulty minutes on a line with Ray Whitney and Alex Chiasson. Ryan O'Reilly is also an excellent player on an up-and-coming Avalanche team, and David Desharnais, Tyler Johnson, Brandon Dubinsky and Adam Henrique are all nice players too.
The bad news for Canucks fans is that the vast majority of guys who became top-6 NHL centremen were elite offensive performers in the CHL. Even with his stronger 2013-14 season, Bo Horvat has not been an elite offensive performer relative to the guys that have developed into top-6 centremen, and players who score at a rate similar to his at the same age still usually tend not to become regular NHL players at all:
On average, a player who went on to become an NHL top-6 centre after being drafted out of the CHL scored 1.5 pts/GP over their draft and draft+1 seasons. While this number is inflated a bit by the guys at the top of the list, Bo Horvat is nowhere close. His lack of offensive production can't be accounted for solely through his deployment in London, and still is a pretty serious red flag in terms of him becoming a cornerstone piece of this franchise.
It also has to be noted that for every Ryan O'Reilly drafted, there are multiple Ryan O'Marras - guys drafted for a solid two-way game that are point-per-game players in the CHL, but never amount to anything at the NHL level. This in part shows the folly of drafting for "the next player X" as in a lot of cases, "player X" was never supposed to become the first player X. Milan Lucic, for example, was never supposed to become anything more than a knuckle-chucker. He had 19 points in his draft year, before exploding for 68 the next season. When a team drafts a guy like Lucic, 99 times out of 100 he never develops the "can play hockey" dimension to his game.
Guys like O'Reilly and Dubinsky and Henrique and Eakin are the outliers, and you'll notice that they're also all guys taken in the second round or later (Desharnais and Johnson weren't even drafted at all, despite both eclipsing 115 points in a single season by the time their CHL careers ended). This is the thing with Horvat - although Ryan O'Reilly could be his ceiling, it's not likely that he reaches that level, just as it was unlikely for O'Reilly himself to reach that level. The NHL is an extremely skilled and brutally difficult league, and the majority of the time, guys that become good players were dominating players in junior.
Reasonable ExpectationsBo Horvat will, by all accounts, be an NHL player. He's a very good CHL'er and possesses a skill set that is fawned over by NHL GMs. When prognosticating these sorts of things, though, we need to evaluate what the most likely outcome is moving forward. For Horvat, the most likely route his career takes sees him topping out as a decent 3rd line C, scoring in the mid-40s in points just once or twice, and finishing his career having played for 4 or 5 different teams. Even then, he probably won't be ready to step into that 3rd line role and be effective for another 3-4 years after this one. Nothing he's done in junior screams "I'm ready" for full-time NHL duty, and most players spend significant time apprenticing in the AHL anyways.
There isn't really a reason to conclude that Horvat is better than "most players," so thrusting him into the spotlight and asking him to anchor the 3rd line on a team that wants to be going places isn't really a reasonable expectation at this point in his career.
All in all, Bo Horvat simply is not a player you build your future around, and is certainly not a player you draft with the 9th overall pick when there are players available that are clearly better bets to become impact pros - players like Valeri Nichushkin and Max Domi, and to a lesser extent guys like Josh Morrissey, Alex Wennberg, Nic Petan and Hunter Shinkaruk (thank god he fell to 24th). He's a guy you should feel comfortable taking in the 2nd or 3rd round, as coaches will always give him a second look since he does the defensive stuff well. He more than likely won't make an impact in the next few seasons though.
The Hockey News ranked Vancouver's prospects 28th out of 30 teams, and I tend to agree. Outside of Shinkaruk, there isn't really anyone who projects as an above-average offensive player at the NHL level in the system. Of course, this could change with another top-10 pick in this summer's entry draft, and could really change depending on what the return is for Ryan Kesler if he still wants to be moved in the increasingly probable event that John Tortorella is fired. It's a good idea to take a sober look at this though, and temper our expectations for the kids.
More reading on Bo Horvat:-
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Cool, I just wasn't sure how often the euro guys come over for it, I guess if they want to get drafted high they better.
I don't mind picking Ritchie, but if he comes into the combine out of shape I might start to wonder about his work ethic. I'd also like to see if Ehlers or nylander have filled out over the year.
This is a post from NHL.com Regarding the Combine Fitness
Scouting Combine expected to draw 119 prospects2014 NHL DraftThursday, 05.15.2014 / 9:00 AM / 2014 NHL Draft - Philadelphia - June 27-28, 2014NHL.comMany of the top players on NHL Central Scouting's final list of North American and international prospects eligible for the 2014 NHL Draft will be front and center when the NHL Scouting Combine takes center stage later this month in Toronto.
Dan Marr, the director of NHL Central Scouting, is anticipating the attendance of 119 players, including 101 North Americans, at the Combine from May 26-31.
2014 NHL COMBINEhttp://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=718423 - list of full invites to combineThere are 18 international prospects, including two goalies, expected to attend. All NHL teams will have the opportunity to sit down for interviews with the invited prospects from May 26 through May 30. The medical examinations of each player will take place May 30 and the fitness portion, headed by Dr. Norman Gledhill and his York University Fitness staff in Toronto, will be held May 31 at Toronto International Centre.
Unlike previous seasons, the player invitation process was revised to enable NHL clubs an opportunity to participate.
"It's a change from past practice of invites being solely based on Central Scouting's final rankings," Marr said. "Research has shown over the last decade that an average of 78 invites to the Combine were selected in the top 100 at the NHL Draft.
"For the 2014 Combine, a two-stage process was adopted. In the initial stage, the top 75 players on Central Scouting's Players to Watch List were invited [at an earlier date] and the final stage involved the NHL clubs voting in the remaining 45 players. The number of invites increased this year."
Central Scouting provided NHL.com the list of invites to the Scouting Combine. The Combine consists of three elements (team interviews, medical examinations, physical testing) and players participate in all segments.
Among the players invited are forwards Samuel Bennett of the Kingston Frontenacs in the Ontario Hockey League and Sam Reinhart of the Kootenay Ice in the Western Hockey League, defenseman Aaron Ekblad of the Barrie Colts in the OHL and goalie Thatcher Demko of Boston College.
Additionally, included in the mix of top international players prepared to fly to North America to participate are forwards William Nylander of Modo in Sweden and Kasperi Kapanen of Kalpa in Finland.
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awesome thanks!
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a few random questions I was thinking about lately
If a team tries to offer sheet a player. Example - Oilers offer sheet Tanev for 5 mill and Tanev turns the offer down as he wants to stay with Van. Does Van still have to match that price? or if price isn't matched is Tanev forced to join the Oilers than?Also what if Oilers offer sheet Tanev but Canucks were discussing a trade with for example, Florida for 1st pick in 2014 draft. Could Canucks still trade Tanev to Florida and the offer sheet is left for Florida to match?
and last if a player goes undrafted example - Reinhart doesn't get drafted in 2014. Does he have to wait till next year to get drafted again or could a team than pick him up as a free agent?
*** These are just Examples to explain my questions =) **** Thanks for the help
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Awesome. Just so damn Awesome
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2 min till the Kesler should be traded to the bruins proposals begin
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f) Players shall not be permitted to wear a coloured or tinted visor or tinted
full face mask."
What would the reasoning behind this rule be? Could make a goalies job more difficult by not seeing where the eyes are looking.
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The Music with this is awesome. Sets the tone
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The canucks need to make a decision on what direction we are heading before selecting a new coach. Ie rebuild etc
ECF: (4) Montreal Canadiens vs (5) New York Rangers
in General Hockey Discussion
Posted
Only 16 shots from Montreal. That is pretty low